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Bubble Watch....

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Interesting results from last night...
I'm telling you, this bubble and RPI situation is unprecedented. It's amazing how crazy the cut is going to be. I'm going to group bubble teams into "RPI-based" vs "Other metrics-based", as there appears to be a HUGE divide, more than i can ever remember, in the 2.

RPI-based:
Texas Tech losing to TCU. Really bad loss. There is about a *20* spot difference between the RPI and other metrics for them. They're essentially the opposite of UConn, numbers wise. Projected everywhere as a 7.

Oregon St beating ASU. Almost a *30* spot difference. Insane!

Metrics-based:
Wichita St is going to be the all time RPI vs Other metrics litmus test. Almost a 40 spot difference. That's why you're seeing them all over the map on bracketology.

UConn are not that far off either - about 30 spots. It's one of the reasons I'm harping on about the CCSU game - the metrics look at point differential, so blowing out a bad team doesn't hurt out numbers that much. The RPI sees "351," and just kills us.
 
All the smart people have UConn in. There is a reason for that. Any metric really worth looking at suggests that UConn's body of work is superior to most fringe bubble teams. Objectively speaking, when you have 21 wins and your worst loss is still a top 80 team, you should be in the field.
 
djct1999 said:
All the smart people have UConn in. There is a reason for that. Any metric really worth looking at suggests that UConn's body of work is superior to most fringe bubble teams. Objectively speaking, when you have 21 wins and your worst loss is still a top 80 team, you should be in the field.
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Totally agreed, but what worries me is that the committee is never consistent with this. One year it's RPI, one year it's OOC SOS, one year it's advanced metrics, etc. I don't like seeing these things diverging this much when we're so close to the cut line.
 
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I don't see how anyone can feel confident if we lose Friday. It's possible that we get in, but I certainly wouldn't bet on it. I do think UConn is in with a win. As everyone has pointed out, our metrics are solid and like WSU, we did play several weeks without a starter. I doubt it will matter because I don't think Temple can beat us three times...they shouldn't have won either of the other two games.

The waiting is killing me.
 
Tejas Tech lost to a horid TCU team last night in the Big XII tourney, putting them, in my opinion, from a definite IN to squarely on the bubble.
 
beakumhawks said:
Tejas Tech lost to a horid TCU team last night in the Big XII tourney, putting them, in my opinion, from a definite IN to squarely on the bubble.
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They have a losing record in the B12 and beat absolutely nobody in the nonconf. I can't believe they'd be safely in. They won at Baylor, but have no other decent wins away from home. They're 4-10 in KenPom "A" games, 3-1 in "B" and a loss outside either. With a loss to Cincy, UConn would be 4-8, 2-1, and 2 losses outside (but the outside losses are better, they're just home games to 50-100 teams). Probably a slightly worse resume, but not significantly.
 
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Today's games:

Go UConn
Go Memphis (vs. Tulsa)
Go Michigan St (vs. Ohio St.)
Go Indiana (vs. Michigan)
Go Texas A&M (vs. Florida)
And go USF (haha) vs. Temple
 
Matrim55 said:
This is dumb.

We're still recovering from the sanctions that absolutely destroyed us on the recruiting trail. Between the 2012 & 2013 classes we snagged exactly two 4-star players, one of which went on to have a career marred by injuries. We were also hurt re: our 2014 class, since we couldn't go out on the trail as many hours as our competitors, and ended up getting just one difference-maker. That's picked up in 2015 and bigtime in 2016, but... that's the point of sanctions. They're meant to punish the school.

With better players will come better results. We're getting there.
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Do you think the players are the problem this year? Last year we were much less talented, I don't think we can blame the players now though.
 
Matrim55 said:
This is dumb.

We're still recovering from the sanctions that absolutely destroyed us on the recruiting trail. Between the 2012 & 2013 classes we snagged exactly two 4-star players, one of which went on to have a career marred by injuries. We were also hurt re: our 2014 class, since we couldn't go out on the trail as many hours as our competitors, and ended up getting just one difference-maker. That's picked up in 2015 and bigtime in 2016, but... that's the point of sanctions. They're meant to punish the school.

With better players will come better results. We're getting there.
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I mean, we'll see in a couple of years if this is true. If we start brining in top classes and start pounding the rest of the AAC, great. For now, everything suggests we're a mid-level AAC program with the best tradition of any mid-major in the country. Tradition is the past, though...I'm most interested in the future.
 
Even though we beat Michigan ages ago, we need them to lose today or they could bump us out.
 
KemBuckets21 said:
Do you think the players are the problem this year? Last year we were much less talented, I don't think we can blame the players now though.
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Yes, the players are easily the majority of the problem. This is not a mentally talented team, so I don't know why people continue to think it's talented.
 
7774 said:
Yes, the players are easily the majority of the problem. This is not a mentally talented team, so I don't know why people continue to think it's talented.
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Not sure I agree, But, to each his own.
 
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The latest update. Still not a "lock" to ESPN, haha.

American Athletic Conference
Teams that should be in: Connecticut, Cincinnati
Work left to do: Temple

Connecticut didn't need four overtimes to dispatch Temple on Saturday. Huskies fans were surely relieved. We were mildly disappointed. What can we say? We're spoiled.

Connecticut [23-10 (11-7), RPI: 42, SOS: 49] It's been an excellent weekend for the Huskies, and you can gauge the degree of excellence by the shifts of Joe Lunardi's bracket. Before Friday, the Huskies were among his first four teams out. Then came Jalen Adams' three-quarter-court third-OT buzzer-beater and a subsequent win over Cincinnati and the Huskies clambered up onto the last four in ledge. Today brought a win over Temple. Now Kevin Ollie's team is among Joe's first four byes, the product of knocking the Owls off their regular-season-champ/No. 1 seed perch. It also sets up a pretty interesting Sunday. Ironically enough, either UConn will win the American tournament automatic bid outright, or it will take a bad loss to either Memphis or Tulane. The only remaining question is whether that loss would damage their resume enough to tarnish the work of the past two days.
 
4in16 said:
The latest update. Still not a "lock" to ESPN, haha.

American Athletic Conference
Teams that should be in: Connecticut, Cincinnati
Work left to do: Temple

Connecticut didn't need four overtimes to dispatch Temple on Saturday. Huskies fans were surely relieved. We were mildly disappointed. What can we say? We're spoiled.

Connecticut [23-10 (11-7), RPI: 42, SOS: 49] It's been an excellent weekend for the Huskies, and you can gauge the degree of excellence by the shifts of Joe Lunardi's bracket. Before Friday, the Huskies were among his first four teams out. Then came Jalen Adams' three-quarter-court third-OT buzzer-beater and a subsequent win over Cincinnati and the Huskies clambered up onto the last four in ledge. Today brought a win over Temple. Now Kevin Ollie's team is among Joe's first four byes, the product of knocking the Owls off their regular-season-champ/No. 1 seed perch. It also sets up a pretty interesting Sunday. Ironically enough, either UConn will win the American tournament automatic bid outright, or it will take a bad loss to either Memphis or Tulane. The only remaining question is whether that loss would damage their resume enough to tarnish the work of the past two days.
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Someone wants to compete with Lunardi for biggest moron.
 
4in16 said:
The latest update. Still not a "lock" to ESPN, haha.

American Athletic Conference
Teams that should be in: Connecticut, Cincinnati
Work left to do: Temple

Connecticut didn't need four overtimes to dispatch Temple on Saturday. Huskies fans were surely relieved. We were mildly disappointed. What can we say? We're spoiled.

Connecticut [23-10 (11-7), RPI: 42, SOS: 49] It's been an excellent weekend for the Huskies, and you can gauge the degree of excellence by the shifts of Joe Lunardi's bracket. Before Friday, the Huskies were among his first four teams out. Then came Jalen Adams' three-quarter-court third-OT buzzer-beater and a subsequent win over Cincinnati and the Huskies clambered up onto the last four in ledge. Today brought a win over Temple. Now Kevin Ollie's team is among Joe's first four byes, the product of knocking the Owls off their regular-season-champ/No. 1 seed perch. It also sets up a pretty interesting Sunday. Ironically enough, either UConn will win the American tournament automatic bid outright, or it will take a bad loss to either Memphis or Tulane. The only remaining question is whether that loss would damage their resume enough to tarnish the work of the past two days.
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Brennan is such a puss. Make a call. If he seriously thinks a Memphis loss drags us out now, he's insane.
 
BoatShow said:
I like how we lists Temple as "still has work to do" like how is it even possible?
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It wasn't just losing, it was how they lost to UCONN. Folding at the end and losing big is not a resume builder especially with the low regard afforded to the AAC.
 
UCweCONN said:
It wasn't just losing, it was how they lost to UCONN. Folding at the end and losing big is not a resume builder especially with the low regard afforded to the AAC.
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I think his point was the only work they can do now is their Biology homework.
 
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We're up to 98/102 brackets on BracketMatrix. More than Wichita St.
 
Just as an FYI, I watched a committee member on CBS Sports channel last night who repeated the thing ESPN came out with earlier this week. They chose all but 3 of the at-large bids already.

He said nothing has changed after Saturday afternoon's games.

This leads me to believe that either UConn was firmly in BEFORE it even played Cincy or UConn is right now still on the bubble and on the outside looking in.
 
We are a stone cold lock now, I'll still chew all my finger nails off until the bracket is out though.
 
The Committee seems to pay far, far less attention to conference tourneys than the media does.

There is never a reason to take anything for granted. We deserve to be in regardless, but there is no reason for this team not to close the conference championship out today. So do it and don't worry about the Committee.
 
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I hadn't looked at individual team schedules and results until today. I am shocked VCU is even in the field, let alone a projected 8 seed, base on what vs a Temple Cinci or UConn?

Out of Conference wins: Buffalo, Old Dominion, Middle Tenn, Radford, Liberty, N Fl,American, Pr View,
In Conference only played the 3 best teams 1x each - Dayton (lost), St Joe (Win), St Bonn (win)
In Conference losses to George Mason, Umass, GWash
Out of Conference Losses to Duke, Wisc, Fl St, Georgia Tech, and head to head vs Cinci

They could get the conference bid today to be in the field, but what would have them take an at large spot as an 8 seed
 
Ricker said:
I hadn't looked at individual team schedules and results until today. I am shocked VCU is even in the field, let alone a projected 8 seed, base on what vs a Temple Cinci or UConn?

Out of Conference wins: Buffalo, Old Dominion, Middle Tenn, Radford, Liberty, N Fl,American, Pr View,
In Conference only played the 3 best teams 1x each - Dayton (lost), St Joe (Win), St Bonn (win)
In Conference losses to George Mason, Umass, GWash
Out of Conference Losses to Duke, Wisc, Fl St, Georgia Tech, and head to head vs Cinci

They could get the conference bid today to be in the field, but what would have them take an at large spot as an 8 seed
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Wow that looks like a team that should not be in unless they win their conference tourney. They couldn't even beat Florida State as they played many power conference teams and lost to all of them.
 
Ricker said:
I hadn't looked at individual team schedules and results until today. I am shocked VCU is even in the field, let alone a projected 8 seed, base on what vs a Temple Cinci or UConn?

Out of Conference wins: Buffalo, Old Dominion, Middle Tenn, Radford, Liberty, N Fl,American, Pr View,
In Conference only played the 3 best teams 1x each - Dayton (lost), St Joe (Win), St Bonn (win)
In Conference losses to George Mason, Umass, GWash
Out of Conference Losses to Duke, Wisc, Fl St, Georgia Tech, and head to head vs Cinci

They could get the conference bid today to be in the field, but what would have them take an at large spot as an 8 seed
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The in conference schedule is one I have been harping on. With so much emphasis now on awarding the conference regular season teams who finish at the top, almost no one mentions the severely unbalanced schedules in big conferences.

By avoiding 3 games against the top conference teams, VCU gains an advantage. The same dynamic applies in the AAC. Cincy and UConn had a full slate. Other teams in the top half did not.
 
upstater said:
Just as an FYI, I watched a committee member on CBS Sports channel last night who repeated the thing ESPN came out with earlier this week. They chose all but 3 of the at-large bids already.

He said nothing has changed after Saturday afternoon's games.

This leads me to believe that either UConn was firmly in BEFORE it even played Cincy or UConn is right now still on the bubble and on the outside looking in.
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I'm nervous about this too.

If the committee made the vast majority of their at-large selections prior to the conference tournaments, this does not bode well for any AAC teams. I wouldn't be shocked if the AAC wound up being a one bid league. The committee certainly won't do the conference any favors, as evidenced by the underseeding and snubs of the last few years.
 
upstater said:
Just as an FYI, I watched a committee member on CBS Sports channel last night who repeated the thing ESPN came out with earlier this week. They chose all but 3 of the at-large bids already.

He said nothing has changed after Saturday afternoon's games.

This leads me to believe that either UConn was firmly in BEFORE it even played Cincy or UConn is right now still on the bubble and on the outside looking in.
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When was "already". Also possible that we were in but not firmly (last at large? For example, Lunardi had us first out before Cincy, so that would be only one team off) and may have been squeezed out by conference upsets (Memphis, Gonzaga, Northern Iowa, Fresno State).
 
Mr. Wonderful said:
If the committee made the vast majority of their at-large selections prior to the conference tournaments, this does not bode well for any AAC teams. I wouldn't be shocked if the AAC wound up being a one bid league. The committee certainly won't do the conference any favors, as evidenced by the underseeding and snubs of the last few years.
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UConn is the only AAC team that improved their standing in the tournament, so this doesn't really mean anything for the other teams.
 
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