Bubble watch (2/5/23)

[caw]

Houston is 12-1 in Quad 1 & 2 are #1 in every metric. This is inane..they are a lock. St Mary's was also a great win. Have other good wins. A good win doesn't have to be P6.

I'm no Houston booster but with all due respect if we're locking teams they are a lock. If they aren't then nobody is.

I mean they are saying not if the season ended today but rather if you assigned a loss for every remaining game would Houston be in? That would pile a Quad four, 4 Quad 3 losses and one of Quad 1 and one of Quad 2 onto their record (and likely another bad loss in the first conference tournament game).

I think you would have to seriously question their resume at that point. The chance of that happening is 1 in a billion or lower, but that's the argument. Pretty much every team is likely with that argument but some teams have very few bad games remaining which could move said team to a lock.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Is UNC still a bubble team? They have ONE Quad 1 win, over Ohio State.

 

[caw]

Is UNC still a bubble team? They have ONE Quad 1 win, over Ohio State.

Probably. They are 1-8 in Quad 1 games but 5-1 in Quad two and no bad losses. Still top 50 in NET, so right now on the bubble but probably on the outside looking in, IMO.

 

[shizzle787]

Is UNC still a bubble team? They have ONE Quad 1 win, over Ohio State.

If they win out the rest of the regular season, they would 22-9 with about four good additional wins. At that point, an ACC tournament flameout may not matter.

 

[Hurleyman216]

CBS Sports does not have Houston as a lock btw: Bracketology Bubble Watch: Kentucky, North Carolina, Michigan State with important games today

You are an absolute clown

 

[nelsonmuntz]

You are an absolute clown

Can you and @HeGotGame give it a rest? If you don't want to discuss bubble teams, just skip the thread. No need to derail the thread with every post.

 

[caw]

So, where would PC be seeded right now? No bad losses but only 5-6 in Quad 1/Quad 2 games. No top fifty road/neutral wins. Seven seed? eight? It would take a massive drop to not make the tournament but I just can't see PC with a top 5 seed in March right now unless they run the table.

Creighton is only 6-7 and has one bad loss and one good neutral court win but I wonder how the committee will view it considering the injury to Kaukbrenner.

X is 11-4 with one bad loss but wins at UConn and neutral to Cincy. 3-4 seed, but if they don't get Freemantle back, how they finish is questionable.

Marquette is 8-5 with a bad loss but no significant road or neutral wins (though SHU could move into the top 50).

UConn is now 9-5 with a bad loss but two good neutral wins and one good road win.

Right now I think X is a three, UConn and Marquette are fours, Creighton is a five and PC a six or seven.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Kalkbrenner getting sick is why they have that policy. He missed Creighton’s losses to BYU, Arizona State and Marquette, and was probably sick for the loss to Nebraska. With Kalkbrenner healthy, Creighton is 15-4, with losses at Texas, Xavier and UConn, and a neutral court loss to Arizona. With him back, Creighton looks like a top 10 to top 15 team.

 

[MJKI]

So, where would PC be seeded right now? No bad losses but only 5-6 in Quad 1/Quad 2 games. No top fifty road/neutral wins. Seven seed? eight? It would take a massive drop to not make the tournament but I just can't see PC with a top 5 seed in March right now unless they run the table.

Creighton is only 6-7 and has one bad loss and one good neutral court win but I wonder how the committee will view it considering the injury to Kaukbrenner.

X is 11-4 with one bad loss but wins at UConn and neutral to Cincy. 3-4 seed, but if they don't get Freemantle back, how they finish is questionable.

Marquette is 8-5 with a bad loss but no significant road or neutral wins (though SHU could move into the top 50).

UConn is now 9-5 with a bad loss but two good neutral wins and one good road win.

Right now I think X is a three, UConn and Marquette are fours, Creighton is a five and PC a six or seven.

I cant see PC getting anything higher than a 7 right now. 38th in NET, very week OOC schedule and no good road wins. The lack of a marquee pre-season tournament has hurt them this year.
I think if the season ended today (convenient, before the Creighton game lol), X and UConn would be 4s, Creighton and Marquette 5s, PC a 7 and SH last 4 in

 

[Jaydumo20]

Big East's top 5 I'll put up against any conference. At least right now, which is when it matters most.

 

[HeGotGame]

Can you and @HeGotGame give it a rest? If you don't want to discuss bubble teams, just skip the thread. No need to derail the thread with every post.

I love how much my one post in here bothered you. Love it.

 

[Hurleyman216]

Can you and @HeGotGame give it a rest? If you don't want to discuss bubble teams, just skip the thread. No need to derail the thread with every post.

Nah, I’ll keep commenting until you “experts” consider Houston who is not only a 1 seed but very likely the overall #1 seed a lock. If Shizzle can’t handle it, then he shouldn’t have started a thread about something he isn’t knowledgeable about. Post dumb stuff and people are going to question it, sorry bud but that’s how life works. I’ll post on whatever thread I want, don’t need the thread police to tell me where I should be posting. If you don’t like my posts maybe YOU should skip the thread

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I love how much my one post in here bothered you. Love it.

You and your sidekick are internet cliches. When someone points out that you are trolling, it doesn't mean that you are "in their head". It means you are being a troll.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Nah, I’ll keep commenting until you “experts” consider Houston who is not only a 1 seed but very likely the overall #1 seed a lock. If Shizzle can’t handle it, then he shouldn’t have started a thread about something he isn’t knowledgeable about. Post dumb stuff and people are going to question it, sorry bud but that’s how life works. I’ll post on whatever thread I want, don’t need the thread police to tell me where I should be posting. If you don’t like my posts maybe YOU should skip the thread

If I want to know what you are thinking, I will ask @HeGotGame

 

[HeGotGame]

If I want to know what you are thinking, I will ask @HeGotGame

But Nelson, no one ever wants to know what you are thinking, but yet you still keep posting pointless dribble.

The only one derailing the thread is you having a temper tantrum over people telling Shizzle he is wrong on not having Houston as a lock. I am sorry that fact bothers you so much, I truly am.

 

[The Yakk]

But Nelson, no one ever wants to know what you are thinking, but yet you still keep posting pointless dribble.

The only one derailing the thread is you having a temper tantrum over people telling Shizzle he is wrong on not having Houston as a lock. I am sorry that fact bothers you so much, I truly am.

Lol you meant "drivel".

I hope you are not actually a UConn grad. Would make me worried about our academic ranking.

 

[Matt1010]

Just use BracketMatrix - currently Xavier - 3, Marquette - 4, UConn - 5 (likely up to 4 with last night result), PC - 7, Creighton - 7

The Bracket Project's Bracket Matrix - 2025

 

[methodology]

Houston is 12-1 in Quad 1 & 2 are #1 in every metric. This is inane..they are a lock. St Mary's was also a great win. Have other good wins. A good win doesn't have to be P6.

I'm no Houston booster but with all due respect if we're locking teams they are a lock. If they aren't then nobody is.

I’ve watched St Mary’s a handful of times and they are a team that can cause issues. They aren’t superior athletically or talent wise but they are extremely well coached and fundamentally sound. Very solid team and overlooked

 

[shizzle787]

Big East's top 5 I'll put up against any conference. At least right now, which is when it matters most.

Except for the Big 12.

 

[auror]

Except for the Big 12.

The top of the big 12 aren't that special, it's teams 5-10 that are better than every other league

 

[Hurleyman216]

The top of the big 12 aren't that special, it's teams 5-10 that are better than every other league

Exactly right. Take Texas or Kansas and put them up against Xavier/Marquette/UConn on a neutral court and those games are a coin flip. I do expect they may advance further in March, but mainly because that league will likely have a couple of 2 seeds and a couple of 3 or 4 seeds whereas we’ll probably see teams like PC and Creighton on the 6-7 seed line. It will be interesting, we may even get a 2 seed Big 12 vs. 7 seed Big East 2nd round matchup which I think would be highly entertaining

 

[shizzle787]

Nah, I’ll keep commenting until you “experts” consider Houston who is not only a 1 seed but very likely the overall #1 seed a lock. If Shizzle can’t handle it, then he shouldn’t have started a thread about something he isn’t knowledgeable about. Post dumb stuff and people are going to question it, sorry bud but that’s how life works. I’ll post on whatever thread I want, don’t need the thread police to tell me where I should be posting. If you don’t like my posts maybe YOU should skip the thread

I more knowledgeable about bracketology than most of the people on this board, and my statistics background is better than at least 95% of the people on this board. Houston is #1 seed currently because they keep winning. If they lose even 3 or 4 games the rest of the way, they will plummet (just like last year) to a 5 or 6 seed. They play in a mid-major league. This is not hard to understand. They have minimal room for error whereas a Big 12 school has a ton of room for error. We even have history of this from literally last year.

 

[shizzle787]

The top of the big 12 aren't that special, it's teams 5-10 that are better than every other league

The top is also strong. Their OOC winning % league wide was remarkable against external high level competition.

 

[Scottobot]

CBS Sports does not have Houston as a lock btw: Bracketology Bubble Watch: Kentucky, North Carolina, Michigan State with important games today

The probability of Houston losing all their AAC games that remain is probably less than 1 in a million, maybe 1 in 10 million.

Saying some team is not a lock if a 1 in a million event happens is ridiculous. By that definition there are 0 locks until the tournament field is announced, as there is a 1 in a million chance that any program could face some unexpected NCAA violation and be banned from post season play.

 

[PNolanFan]

Is UNC still a bubble team? They have ONE Quad 1 win, over Ohio State.

I am pretty sure Ohio State is a quad 2 at this point and trending down to quad 3

 

[shizzle787]

The probability of Houston losing all their AAC games that remain is probably less than 1 in a million, maybe 1 in 10 million.

Saying some team is not a lock if a 1 in a million event happens is ridiculous. By that definition there are 0 locks until the tournament field is announced, as there is a 1 in a million chance that any program could face some unexpected NCAA violation and be banned from post season play.

This is the way bubble watches work- if a team can lose out it is a lock. I get what you are saying, and I would be stunned if Houston lost out, but until they get to 23 wins (due to a poor conference SOS), they are not a lock. They have one win to go. You don’t have to like the methodology, but it is the same methodology CBS and ESPN use.

 

[auror]

The top is also strong. Their OOC winning % league wide was remarkable against external high level competition.

Strong, not special. Big East has 5 teams in top 25 poll. Big 12 has 6.

Big East has 3 top 12 KenPom teams, B12 has 2. They've got nobody in the top 8 (we're at 6). Average top 5 KenPom for Big East is 15.6. Big 12 is 13. It's close.

 

[Hurleyman216]

I more knowledgeable about bracketology than most of the people on this board, and my statistics background is better than at least 95% of the people on this board. Houston is #1 seed currently because they keep winning. If they lose even 3 or 4 games the rest of the way, they will plummet (just like last year) to a 5 or 6 seed. They play in a mid-major league. This is not hard to understand. They have minimal room for error whereas a Big 12 school has a ton of room for error. We even have history of this from literally last year.

Lol, ok well I’m not in the 95% on this board. I’ve got a Ph.D in engineering and more than likely can run circles around your “stats” skills without a lot of effort. What’s the statistical probability of Houston’s plane crashing between now and selection Sunday? Whatever that number is also happens to be the same probability that they aren’t making the tournament. Do you understand how conditional probability works? The outcomes of these future games are not an example of unconditional probability which is what you’re using for logic. There is a 0% chance they lose all of their remaining games unless like I mentioned above their plane crashes and they can’t field a team.

When you use unconditional probabilities to determine conditional probability outcomes it makes you look stupid and uneducated. I don’t care if CBS uses the same logic, it’s still stupid and doesn’t make sense.

 

[Hurleyman216]

To put this another way, if you assume Houston has a 95% chance of winning each remaining game and they have 8 games left, the probability of them losing all 8 games is 0.000000000039%. Even my brain rounds that number to zero

 

[HeGotGame]

I more knowledgeable about bracketology than most of the people on this board, and my statistics background is better than at least 95% of the people on this board. Houston is #1 seed currently because they keep winning. If they lose even 3 or 4 games the rest of the way, they will plummet (just like last year) to a 5 or 6 seed. They play in a mid-major league. This is not hard to understand. They have minimal room for error whereas a Big 12 school has a ton of room for error. We even have history of this from literally last year.

Now I know why @nelsonmuntz is so upset, he and Shizzle are the same person