Bubble watch (2/5/23)

[Hurleyman216]

I just went in and checked ESPN and Houston has 7 games left. Their probabilities of losing each game based on ESPN are the following: 1%, 2.3%, 4.8%, 2.7%, 2.1%,1.5% and 15.7%(Memphis away). The probability of them losing all 7 games is 0.0000000013%. Come at me with more of your super stats before you tell me again Houston isn’t a lock. You’re just making yourself look really dumb.

 

[Hi-Low]

AAC:
Should be in: Houston - Seriously dude they are LOCK
Work left to do: Temple, Cincinnati, Memphis, Tulane

Big East:
Locks: Xavier, Marquette (at least 19 wins)
Should be in: Providence, UConn
Work left to do: Creighton, Seton Hall

What is your rationale for Xavier & Marquette as Locks with 19 wins but you said UConn needs 20 to be a lock?

 

[NJHusky]

To put this another way, if you assume Houston has a 95% chance of winning each remaining game and they have 8 games left, the probability of them losing all 8 games is 0.000000000039%. Even my brain rounds that number to zero

So you’re saying there’s a chance.

PhD in engineering. Kudos. Undergrad was enough for me. Lol

 

[Hurleyman216]

So you’re saying there’s a chance.

PhD in engineering. Kudos. Undergrad was enough for me. Lol

Yeah, probably should have stopped at a Masters at the most. A Ph.D only means you know a lot about one tiny little topic, which I don’t even use most of the time. Also, you are 3X more likely to win the power ball than Houston is of missing the NCAA tournament. Ironically the probability of a plane crash I looked up is almost 1,000X more likely than Houston losing all 7 games, so my comment above about the plane crash is actually pretty accurate.

 

[navery12]

What is your rationale for Xavier & Marquette as Locks with 19 wins but you said UConn needs 20 to be a lock?

Shizzle logic at its finest

 

[bazz&boujee]

The dude who creates the model gets to make the rules Lol it’s not difficult to understand

 

[shizzle787]

What is your rationale for Xavier & Marquette as Locks with 19 wins but you said UConn needs 20 to be a lock?

Better OOC SOS.

 

[Hurleyman216]

Better OOC SOS.

Marquette’s non conference SOS is 205, UConn’s is 169. As a stats expert you should know that 205 is higher and therefore a worse out of conference schedule than 169.

 

[shizzle787]

I just went in and checked ESPN and Houston has 7 games left. Their probabilities of losing each game based on ESPN are the following: 1%, 2.3%, 4.8%, 2.7%, 2.1%,1.5% and 15.7%(Memphis away). The probability of them losing all 7 games is 0.0000000013%. Come at me with more of your super stats before you tell me again Houston isn’t a lock. You’re just making yourself look really dumb.

I’m not saying they are not going make the field for the 100th time. I’m estimating they need 23 wins to make it based on SOS. Will they get to 23 wins? Yes. They are not there yet. It’s that simple.

 

[shizzle787]

Marquette’s non conference SOS is 205, UConn’s is 169. As a stats expert you should know that 205 is higher and therefore a worse out of conference schedule than 169.

I don’t know where you are getting that from but Marquette played six major conference opponents (including Purdue) and we played five (including Alabama). Also, there are multiple different types of SOS. Different metrics have different SOS.

 

[shizzle787]

Now I know why @nelsonmuntz is so upset, he and Shizzle are the same person

If you think we are the same person, I don’t even know how to respond to that.

 

[Hurleyman216]

I don’t know where you are getting that from but Marquette played six major conference opponents (including Purdue) and we played five (including Alabama). Also, there are multiple different types of SOS. Different metrics have different SOS.

KenPom NCSOS. Rather than just making stuff up and coming up with random Shizz metrics I went and looked at the actual strength of schedule numbers. www.KenPom.com

 

[shizzle787]

KenPom NCSOS. Rather than just making stuff up and coming up with random Shizz metrics I went and looked at the actual strength of schedule numbers. www.KenPom.com

If you look at RPI SOS, which goes into NET, Marquette and UConn are roughly the same so I cop to that. Either way, Xavier DID play a more difficult schedule, and Marquette’s opponents have fallen off lately (Miss State, Notre Dame, Georgia Tech). So I would say Xavier needs 19 and both UConn and Marquette needs 20 (but that could change if either’s opponents get hot-or fall of in the case of Marquette).

However, as an aside, SOS can be gamed. If you play teams ranked #160 and #161 or you play #1 and #321, both result in the same SOS but clearly the second scenario is more difficult.

 

[Hi-Low]

Better OOC SOS.

Look my friend it's Wins that matter, OOC SOS includes loses....nobody in the Big East has 5 combined OOC wins close to UConn (Bama / IA St / OK St / Fla / OR). UConn has the best resume in the Big East right now. UConn is 4-0 against quality Big 12 & SEC teams.

Xavier's only notable OOC wins are WVA & Fla....that would be UConn's 3rd & 4th best OOC wins.

Marquette's only notable OOC win is Baylor would be UConn's 3rd best OOC wins

 

[shizzle787]

Look my friend it's Wins that matter, OOC SOS includes loses....nobody in the Big East has 5 combined OOC wins close to UConn (Bama / IA St / OK St / Fla / OR). UConn has the best resume in the Big East right now. UConn is 4-0 against quality Big 12 & SEC teams.

Xavier's only notable OOC win is Fla....that's UConn's 4th best OOC win.

Marquette's only notable OOC win is Baylor, would be UConn's 3rd best OOC win

What matters is the total resume between OOC and in conference schedules. It’s potato potato: Xavier is 11-2 with three OOC losses, we are 8-6 with zero OOC losses. It evens out roughly.
We can name it OOC or conference, but the committee looks at the body of work between the two in total.

 

[Hi-Low]

What matters is the total resume between OOC and in conference schedules. It’s potato potato: Xavier is 11-2 with three OOC losses, we are 8-6 with zero OOC losses. It evens out roughly.
We can name it OOC or conference, but the committee looks at the body of work between the two in total.

No kidding it's overall body of work....and right now UConn's overall body of work is better than X or Marquette imo.....but Xavier beat UConn twice so you wan't to make Xavier 1a & UConn 1b ok by me.

 

[shizzle787]

No kidding it's overall body of work....and right now UConn's overall body of work is better than X or Marquette. X beat UConn twice so you wan't to make X 1a & UConn 1b ok by me.

I admit to not tracking Marquette’s OOC opponents lately. I would go 20 on them instead of 19. My bad. I still think Xavier will get a little more leeway (need one less win to get in) as they played a more difficult SOS even if they lost a few. If you shift a few of their OOC losses to the BE and vice-versa, they still have a little bit better resume (and floor).

 

[nelsonmuntz]

AAC:
Should be in: Houston
Work left to do: Temple, Cincinnati, Memphis, Tulane

Atlantic 10:
Work left to do: VCU, Saint Louis, Fordham

ACC:
Should be in: Virginia, Miami
Work left to do: Clemson, Pitt, NC State, Duke, UNC, Wake Forest

Big 12:
Locks: Texas, Kansas State, Kansas (at least 18 wins)
Should be in: Iowa State, TCU, Baylor
Work left to do: Oklahoma State, West Virginia

Big East:
Locks: Xavier, Marquette (at least 19 wins)
Should be in: Providence, UConn
Work left to do: Creighton, Seton Hall

Big 10:
Lock: Purdue
Should be in: Rutgers, Iowa, Maryland, Indiana, Illinois
Work left to do: Northwestern, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Penn State

MW:
Work left to do: SDSU, Boise State, Nevada, Utah State, New Mexico, UNLV

Pac-12:
Lock: Arizona
Should be in: UCLA, USC
Work left to do: Utah, Oregon, Arizona State

SEC:
Locks: Alabama, Tennessee (at least 19 wins)
Should be in: Auburn
Work left to do: Kentucky, Texas A&M, Missouri, Arkansas

WCC:
Should be in: St. Mary's, Gonzaga

Others:
Work left to do: Charleston, FAU, Oral Roberts

Using teams with RPI's 50 or better as a rough proxy for how many bids a league will get, here is the breakdown by conference:

ACC: 5
Big East: 5
Big 10: 7 (actually 8, but Ohio State has a losing record and is obviously not getting a bid)
Big 12: 8 (all 35 or better)
Pac 12: 2
SEC: 8 (but 4 of them are in the 40's, so unlikely to get 8 bids).
MWC: 5 (all better than 40)
WCC: 2

42 teams less 8 automatic bids = 34 at-large bids between them. There are 36 at-large bids available. There are not a lot of clear cut at large prospects outside of those conferences other than Memphis. Florida Atlantic is probably getting an at-large if they lose in their conference tournament, and Oral Roberts and Charleston have shots at at-large bids if they lose in their conference finals.

It is a zero sum game from here on out for the conferences. A Big 10 bubble team going on a 4 game winning streak means 4 Big 10 teams are picking up losses to a bubble team. For the Big East, Seton Hall's road to an at-large is just too tough. I don't think they will get it.

My gut is that the ACC gets 6, SEC gets 6 or 7, and the Pac 12 gets USC in. The other conferences get their Top 50 NET teams in.

 

[Tyler2Rings]

You guys better pool your collective PHDs and statistics knowledge to come to an agreement. The selection committee will be SOL come Selection Sunday if they cant get definitive info from the BY

 

[Tenspro2002]

To put this another way, if you assume Houston has a 95% chance of winning each remaining game and they have 8 games left, the probability of them losing all 8 games is 0.000000000039%. Even my brain rounds that number to zero

This is the key point.

Most of us are defining "lock" as >99% chance to be in the field.

If one really wants to be pedantic and define it as 100%, then sure, I guess one could do that.

 

[caw]

No kidding it's overall body of work....and right now UConn's overall body of work is better than X or Marquette imo.....but Xavier beat UConn twice so you wan't to make Xavier 1a & UConn 1b ok by me.

UConn should be ahead of Marquette now after the last game. Before that you could argue Marquette was ahead. Even their losses were super close games to high quality opponents. Whereas UConn lost to SJU. That and the result in the first UConn/Marquette game was literally the difference. With the last game, I think Marquette is either behind or even with UConn. I would say UConn has the advantage because of the Bama win and how badly UConn won by.

X on the other hand is probably ahead of UConn based mostly on the head to head matchup and the fact they are 11-4 against high quality opponents. Flip the home game UConn lost and X would be at 10-5 and UConn at 9-5 in quality games and then I think the fact UConn has a win over Bama may put UConn ahead of X. So I think that UConn home loss is the difference.