Bubble watch (2/5/23)

[Hurleyman216]

The top of the big 12 aren't that special, it's teams 5-10 that are better than every other league

Exactly right. Take Texas or Kansas and put them up against Xavier/Marquette/UConn on a neutral court and those games are a coin flip. I do expect they may advance further in March, but mainly because that league will likely have a couple of 2 seeds and a couple of 3 or 4 seeds whereas we’ll probably see teams like PC and Creighton on the 6-7 seed line. It will be interesting, we may even get a 2 seed Big 12 vs. 7 seed Big East 2nd round matchup which I think would be highly entertaining

 

[shizzle787]

Nah, I’ll keep commenting until you “experts” consider Houston who is not only a 1 seed but very likely the overall #1 seed a lock. If Shizzle can’t handle it, then he shouldn’t have started a thread about something he isn’t knowledgeable about. Post dumb stuff and people are going to question it, sorry bud but that’s how life works. I’ll post on whatever thread I want, don’t need the thread police to tell me where I should be posting. If you don’t like my posts maybe YOU should skip the thread

I more knowledgeable about bracketology than most of the people on this board, and my statistics background is better than at least 95% of the people on this board. Houston is #1 seed currently because they keep winning. If they lose even 3 or 4 games the rest of the way, they will plummet (just like last year) to a 5 or 6 seed. They play in a mid-major league. This is not hard to understand. They have minimal room for error whereas a Big 12 school has a ton of room for error. We even have history of this from literally last year.

 

[shizzle787]

The top of the big 12 aren't that special, it's teams 5-10 that are better than every other league

The top is also strong. Their OOC winning % league wide was remarkable against external high level competition.

 

[Scottobot]

CBS Sports does not have Houston as a lock btw: Bracketology Bubble Watch: Kentucky, North Carolina, Michigan State with important games today

The probability of Houston losing all their AAC games that remain is probably less than 1 in a million, maybe 1 in 10 million.

Saying some team is not a lock if a 1 in a million event happens is ridiculous. By that definition there are 0 locks until the tournament field is announced, as there is a 1 in a million chance that any program could face some unexpected NCAA violation and be banned from post season play.

 

[PNolanFan]

Is UNC still a bubble team? They have ONE Quad 1 win, over Ohio State.

I am pretty sure Ohio State is a quad 2 at this point and trending down to quad 3

 

[shizzle787]

The probability of Houston losing all their AAC games that remain is probably less than 1 in a million, maybe 1 in 10 million.

Saying some team is not a lock if a 1 in a million event happens is ridiculous. By that definition there are 0 locks until the tournament field is announced, as there is a 1 in a million chance that any program could face some unexpected NCAA violation and be banned from post season play.

This is the way bubble watches work- if a team can lose out it is a lock. I get what you are saying, and I would be stunned if Houston lost out, but until they get to 23 wins (due to a poor conference SOS), they are not a lock. They have one win to go. You don’t have to like the methodology, but it is the same methodology CBS and ESPN use.

 

[auror]

The top is also strong. Their OOC winning % league wide was remarkable against external high level competition.

Strong, not special. Big East has 5 teams in top 25 poll. Big 12 has 6.

Big East has 3 top 12 KenPom teams, B12 has 2. They've got nobody in the top 8 (we're at 6). Average top 5 KenPom for Big East is 15.6. Big 12 is 13. It's close.

 

[Hurleyman216]

I more knowledgeable about bracketology than most of the people on this board, and my statistics background is better than at least 95% of the people on this board. Houston is #1 seed currently because they keep winning. If they lose even 3 or 4 games the rest of the way, they will plummet (just like last year) to a 5 or 6 seed. They play in a mid-major league. This is not hard to understand. They have minimal room for error whereas a Big 12 school has a ton of room for error. We even have history of this from literally last year.

Lol, ok well I’m not in the 95% on this board. I’ve got a Ph.D in engineering and more than likely can run circles around your “stats” skills without a lot of effort. What’s the statistical probability of Houston’s plane crashing between now and selection Sunday? Whatever that number is also happens to be the same probability that they aren’t making the tournament. Do you understand how conditional probability works? The outcomes of these future games are not an example of unconditional probability which is what you’re using for logic. There is a 0% chance they lose all of their remaining games unless like I mentioned above their plane crashes and they can’t field a team.

When you use unconditional probabilities to determine conditional probability outcomes it makes you look stupid and uneducated. I don’t care if CBS uses the same logic, it’s still stupid and doesn’t make sense.

 

[Hurleyman216]

To put this another way, if you assume Houston has a 95% chance of winning each remaining game and they have 8 games left, the probability of them losing all 8 games is 0.000000000039%. Even my brain rounds that number to zero

 

[HeGotGame]

I more knowledgeable about bracketology than most of the people on this board, and my statistics background is better than at least 95% of the people on this board. Houston is #1 seed currently because they keep winning. If they lose even 3 or 4 games the rest of the way, they will plummet (just like last year) to a 5 or 6 seed. They play in a mid-major league. This is not hard to understand. They have minimal room for error whereas a Big 12 school has a ton of room for error. We even have history of this from literally last year.

Now I know why @nelsonmuntz is so upset, he and Shizzle are the same person

 

[Hurleyman216]

I just went in and checked ESPN and Houston has 7 games left. Their probabilities of losing each game based on ESPN are the following: 1%, 2.3%, 4.8%, 2.7%, 2.1%,1.5% and 15.7%(Memphis away). The probability of them losing all 7 games is 0.0000000013%. Come at me with more of your super stats before you tell me again Houston isn’t a lock. You’re just making yourself look really dumb.

 

[Hi-Low]

AAC:
Should be in: Houston - Seriously dude they are LOCK
Work left to do: Temple, Cincinnati, Memphis, Tulane

Big East:
Locks: Xavier, Marquette (at least 19 wins)
Should be in: Providence, UConn
Work left to do: Creighton, Seton Hall

What is your rationale for Xavier & Marquette as Locks with 19 wins but you said UConn needs 20 to be a lock?

 

[NJHusky]

To put this another way, if you assume Houston has a 95% chance of winning each remaining game and they have 8 games left, the probability of them losing all 8 games is 0.000000000039%. Even my brain rounds that number to zero

So you’re saying there’s a chance.

PhD in engineering. Kudos. Undergrad was enough for me. Lol

 

[Hurleyman216]

So you’re saying there’s a chance.

PhD in engineering. Kudos. Undergrad was enough for me. Lol

Yeah, probably should have stopped at a Masters at the most. A Ph.D only means you know a lot about one tiny little topic, which I don’t even use most of the time. Also, you are 3X more likely to win the power ball than Houston is of missing the NCAA tournament. Ironically the probability of a plane crash I looked up is almost 1,000X more likely than Houston losing all 7 games, so my comment above about the plane crash is actually pretty accurate.

 

[navery12]

What is your rationale for Xavier & Marquette as Locks with 19 wins but you said UConn needs 20 to be a lock?

Shizzle logic at its finest

 

[bazz&boujee]

The dude who creates the model gets to make the rules Lol it’s not difficult to understand

 

[shizzle787]

What is your rationale for Xavier & Marquette as Locks with 19 wins but you said UConn needs 20 to be a lock?

Better OOC SOS.

 

[Hurleyman216]

Better OOC SOS.

Marquette’s non conference SOS is 205, UConn’s is 169. As a stats expert you should know that 205 is higher and therefore a worse out of conference schedule than 169.

 

[shizzle787]

I just went in and checked ESPN and Houston has 7 games left. Their probabilities of losing each game based on ESPN are the following: 1%, 2.3%, 4.8%, 2.7%, 2.1%,1.5% and 15.7%(Memphis away). The probability of them losing all 7 games is 0.0000000013%. Come at me with more of your super stats before you tell me again Houston isn’t a lock. You’re just making yourself look really dumb.

I’m not saying they are not going make the field for the 100th time. I’m estimating they need 23 wins to make it based on SOS. Will they get to 23 wins? Yes. They are not there yet. It’s that simple.

 

[shizzle787]

Marquette’s non conference SOS is 205, UConn’s is 169. As a stats expert you should know that 205 is higher and therefore a worse out of conference schedule than 169.

I don’t know where you are getting that from but Marquette played six major conference opponents (including Purdue) and we played five (including Alabama). Also, there are multiple different types of SOS. Different metrics have different SOS.

 

[shizzle787]

Now I know why @nelsonmuntz is so upset, he and Shizzle are the same person

If you think we are the same person, I don’t even know how to respond to that.

 

[Hurleyman216]

I don’t know where you are getting that from but Marquette played six major conference opponents (including Purdue) and we played five (including Alabama). Also, there are multiple different types of SOS. Different metrics have different SOS.

KenPom NCSOS. Rather than just making stuff up and coming up with random Shizz metrics I went and looked at the actual strength of schedule numbers. www.KenPom.com

 

[shizzle787]

KenPom NCSOS. Rather than just making stuff up and coming up with random Shizz metrics I went and looked at the actual strength of schedule numbers. www.KenPom.com

If you look at RPI SOS, which goes into NET, Marquette and UConn are roughly the same so I cop to that. Either way, Xavier DID play a more difficult schedule, and Marquette’s opponents have fallen off lately (Miss State, Notre Dame, Georgia Tech). So I would say Xavier needs 19 and both UConn and Marquette needs 20 (but that could change if either’s opponents get hot-or fall of in the case of Marquette).

However, as an aside, SOS can be gamed. If you play teams ranked #160 and #161 or you play #1 and #321, both result in the same SOS but clearly the second scenario is more difficult.

 

[Hi-Low]

Better OOC SOS.

Look my friend it's Wins that matter, OOC SOS includes loses....nobody in the Big East has 5 combined OOC wins close to UConn (Bama / IA St / OK St / Fla / OR). UConn has the best resume in the Big East right now. UConn is 4-0 against quality Big 12 & SEC teams.

Xavier's only notable OOC wins are WVA & Fla....that would be UConn's 3rd & 4th best OOC wins.

Marquette's only notable OOC win is Baylor would be UConn's 3rd best OOC wins

 

[shizzle787]

Look my friend it's Wins that matter, OOC SOS includes loses....nobody in the Big East has 5 combined OOC wins close to UConn (Bama / IA St / OK St / Fla / OR). UConn has the best resume in the Big East right now. UConn is 4-0 against quality Big 12 & SEC teams.

Xavier's only notable OOC win is Fla....that's UConn's 4th best OOC win.

Marquette's only notable OOC win is Baylor, would be UConn's 3rd best OOC win

What matters is the total resume between OOC and in conference schedules. It’s potato potato: Xavier is 11-2 with three OOC losses, we are 8-6 with zero OOC losses. It evens out roughly.
We can name it OOC or conference, but the committee looks at the body of work between the two in total.