Bubble watch (2/5/23) | The Boneyard

Bubble watch (2/5/23)

shizzle787

shizzle787

King Shizzle DCCLXXXVII of the Cesspool
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AAC:
Should be in: Houston
Work left to do: Temple, Cincinnati, Memphis, Tulane

Atlantic 10:
Work left to do: VCU, Saint Louis, Fordham

ACC:
Should be in: Virginia, Miami
Work left to do: Clemson, Pitt, NC State, Duke, UNC, Wake Forest

Big 12:
Locks: Texas, Kansas State, Kansas (at least 18 wins)
Should be in: Iowa State, TCU, Baylor
Work left to do: Oklahoma State, West Virginia

Big East:
Locks: Xavier, Marquette (at least 19 wins)
Should be in: Providence, UConn
Work left to do: Creighton, Seton Hall

Big 10:
Lock: Purdue
Should be in: Rutgers, Iowa, Maryland, Indiana, Illinois
Work left to do: Northwestern, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Penn State

MW:
Work left to do: SDSU, Boise State, Nevada, Utah State, New Mexico, UNLV

Pac-12:
Lock: Arizona
Should be in: UCLA, USC
Work left to do: Utah, Oregon, Arizona State

SEC:
Locks: Alabama, Tennessee (at least 19 wins)
Should be in: Auburn
Work left to do: Kentucky, Texas A&M, Missouri, Arkansas

WCC:
Should be in: St. Mary's, Gonzaga

Others:
Work left to do: Charleston, FAU, Oral Roberts
 
I have a hard time seeing teams with NETs worse than 70 getting at large bids.

I don't know how the Committee will treat Clemson (64 NET) and Pitt (56) who are in 1st and 2nd place of the ACC, compared to SDSU, New Mexico, Utah State, Boise State and Nevada, all of whom have NETs better than 40.

It will be really interesting to see how the Committee treats the Big 12, with 8 teams having NETs of 35 or better.
 
nelsonmuntz said:
I have a hard time seeing teams with NETs worse than 70 getting at large bids.

I don't know how the Committee will treat Clemson (64 NET) and Pitt (56) who are in 1st and 2nd place of the ACC, compared to SDSU, New Mexico, Utah State, Boise State and Nevada, all of whom have NETs better than 40.

It will be really interesting to see how the Committee treats the Big 12, with 8 teams having NETs of 35 or better.
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As to your last point, I think as long as a team has 18 wins in the Big 12, they will be. 18-14 will get the job done. 18-15 may even get the job done (assuming team loses in QF or SF).
 
shizzle787 said:
They play in the AAC. If they lose out, they are out. A lock is someone who can lose every game the rest of the way.
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Houston is 11-1 in Quad 1 & 2 games....they are lock city. They are the most locked team after Purdue I would venture to say.

Also...the chances of Houston losing next 8 games are less than 1/10th of 1/10th of 1/10th of 1%.....I'm not sure numbers even go that low.
 
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Hi-Low said:
Houston is 11-1 in Quad 1 & 2 games....they are lock city. They are the most locked team after Purdue I would venture to say.

Also...the chances of Houston losing next 8 games are less than 1/10th of 1/10th of 1/10th of 1%.....I'm not sure numbers even go that low.
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I'm not saying they won't make it. I'm saying if they lose out, they won't make it. They will be 21-11 (9-9) in a mid-major league, and they played 9 cupcakes OOC. Not to mention a slew of Quad 3 and Quad 4 losses they would pick up.
 
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Hi-Low said:
Change Houston to Lock and take the L
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If Houston loses 11 games in the AAC, they are not going to the tournament. They need one or two more wins to lock.
 
shizzle787 said:
If Houston loses 11 games in the AAC, they are not going to the tournament. They need one or two more wins to lock.
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This is dumb, they’re literally a lock for a 1 seed right now. If any team on your list loses their last 11 or 12 games they are also in jeopardy of being out by that logic. The AAC sucks, but your take on Houston not being a lock sucks even more
 
Hurleyman216 said:
This is dumb, they’re literally a lock for a 1 seed right now. If any team on your list loses their last 11 or 12 games they are also in jeopardy of being out by that logic. The AAC sucks, but your take on Houston not being a lock sucks even more
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Yes, that is what a lock is. Houston will become a lock by the end of the week. As of this second, they are not.
 
Thank you for the effort you put into these. I enjoy reading them and I follow/agree with your reasoning for "lock" vs. "should be in" :)
 
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Hurleyman216 said:
Ok, so if Kansas loses out and is 18-13 and 6-12 in the Big 12 you think they’re a lock? Your logic is stupid.
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Because of the difficulty of their league, yes.
 
Stating the obvious- but the problem everyone is having with this is we are all used to the logic ESPN uses for the Bubble Watch- which essentially means if the season ended today, a certain team would be a lock, should be in, or have work left to do.

The OP is using different logic in his post, basically stating if a team loses the rest of their games, would they be a lock, etc.? It’s an interesting way to think about it since it’s early February. I think some people are just having a hard time understanding this logic.
 
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Hurleyman216 said:
Sorry but no Big 12 team that is 6-12 in the league is going to the NCAA tournament
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An 18 win Big 12 team is getting in. Whether they go 6-12 or 9-9 doesn't matter as they had a good OOC schedule (which Kansas did). Btw, Iowa State was cleanly in the field after going 7-11 in the Big 12 last year.
 
shizzle787 said:
An 18 win Big 12 team is getting in. Whether they go 6-12 or 9-9 doesn't matter as they had a good OOC schedule (which Kansas did). Btw, Iowa State was cleanly in the field after going 7-11 in the Big 12 last year.
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Ok, then by your logic UConn is a lock too. Who had a better OOC resume than us?
 
Hurleyman216 said:
Ok, then by your logic UConn is a lock too. Who had a better OOC resume than us?
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We don't play in the Big 12. There are no awful teams in that league. We have Butler, DePaul, and Georgetown in the Big East. We had good wins OOC (Alabama and Iowa State) but our SOS OOC compared to other major conference teams was average.

Kansas played 8/13 major conference opponents OOC; we played 5/11 major conference opponents OOC. They play a more difficult schedule all the way around. That's why we have to win two more games than them to get in.

In other words, they play 26 major conference opponents this year; we play 25 (but six of those games are against mid-major level teams; none of theirs are).
 
You forgot Syracuse.

Damn, I was almost able to write that without laughing.
 
The ACTUAL Lunardi Bubble: UConn other Quality wins moving up - OK St / Florida / Oregon & Seton Hall left to play in revenge game.

ON THE BUBBLE​

LAST FOUR BYES: West VA / USC / Kentucky / Arkansas​

LAST FOUR IN: Boise St / OK St / Nevada / Memphis​

FIRST FOUR OUT: Texas A&M / Florida / Seton Hall / Oregon​

NEXT FOUR OUT: Wisconson / Utah St / Charleston / Penn St​

​

​

​

 
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Hi-Low said:
Houston is #1 NET, #1 Kenpom, #1 BPI, #1 Sagarin and genius Jerry Palm (CBS) has them as a 2 seed so his opinion is grain>salt.

It really doesn't matter.....Houston is very good & they are a lock.
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It's just a different way of seeing things. A 22-10 Houston on an 8-game losing streak with one good win (@Virginia) is certainly on the bubble.

Now, is Houston going on an 8 game losing streak? No. So, Houston is absolutely making the NCAAT. But if your definition of "lock" means "doesn't have to win another game," then it is probably true they're not a lock.
 
caw said:
Well after tonight I think UConn is pretty close to a lock. One more win seals it (any win).
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I also believe 20 is our number.
 
tzznandrew said:
It's just a different way of seeing things. A 22-10 Houston on an 8-game losing streak with one good win (@Virginia) is certainly on the bubble.

Now, is Houston going on an 8 game losing streak? No. So, Houston is absolutely making the NCAAT. But if your definition of "lock" means "doesn't have to win another game," then it is probably true they're not a lock.
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Houston is 12-1 in Quad 1 & 2 are #1 in every metric. This is inane..they are a lock. St Mary's was also a great win. Have other good wins. A good win doesn't have to be P6.

I'm no Houston booster but with all due respect if we're locking teams they are a lock. If they aren't then nobody is.
 
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