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Bubble teams

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It's amazing to hear the talking heads in the media all of a sudden put NC St. in the bubble conversation after their win today. Their best wins are a struggling late season Cuse and two very borderline NCAA teams in Pitt and Tennessee. After that it's wins over FSU, Maryland, and Eastern Kentucky (?). If they beat Duke tomorrow then maybe they can be put in the bubble conversation, but even then they are still out. Overrating of the ACC by the media knows no bounds.
 
A few thoughts:

Southern Miss is not going to the dance in my opinion. They have a tremendous RPI which they achieved without playing anyone. About half the RPI is strictly W/L record, so if you play a bunch of turnips, you will have a good RPI. The other thing Southern Miss did was play a ton of road games. Almost half their games are road games, and the RPI rewards teams that play road games, even if they are against bad teams. Their only Top 50 win is over North Dakota State, and the only other top 100 wins are Georgia State and La Tech. URI is their only win over a team from a Top 10 conference. There are too many 20 win teams from major and near major leagues to send a low major champ like USM.

I think SMU and Iowa are in the dance, but they are going to be sweating. As of right now their are 3 teams above them in the RPI rankings that I have as "out": Minnesota, Missouri and NC State. FSU is only .0002 behind Iowa, so that could move in the next day or two. Actually, 1 of those teams will probably go to the tournament.

All 6 of those schools have similar records, similar number of quality wins, and very similar RPI's. SMU has the fewest Top 100 wins, and Iowa has one of the worst records among that group. These schools are close enough, that a situation like UConn winning the AAC could swing the balance for SMU because they beat UConn twice. If you listen to the Selection Committee interviews over the years, when it gets real close, they go with the teams that have the best wins because they want teams that can win at the Dance.
 
Are we now rooting for Tulsa given they up AAC perception by making the field?

Assuming So. Miss is now out, it seems unlikely that LaTech would retain a bid if they lose to Tulsa as So. Miss has a better RPI. But if it's, say, a 1 point Tulsa win in a great game, I suppose it's possible they could retain a play-in spot if the remaining bubble folds by looking bad (e.g. NC State gets blown out). If somehow CUSA gets two bids, that could put SMU at risk.
 
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storrsroars said:
Are we now rooting for Tulsa given they up AAC perception by making the field?
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Yes, for the same reason we rooted for Louisville in the 2005 NCAAT (just before they were to join the BE), and for the same reason we'll all be rooting against Louisville this year.
 
Iowa dropped to 57 in the RPI rankings, and I don't see anything tomorrow to move them up. 40-60 are really tight in terms of actual RPI, but 57 is a weak number for an at-large. I tentatively have them as the last bid, but that is very tentative.

Toledo and Southern Miss are not going to the NCAA Tournament, and I don't think either snub will be that controversial.

Providence and St. Joe's shrunk the bubble by eliminating any doubt for either of them.
 
I think SMU is getting in but I'd certainly wager they play Tuesday.
 
I think with St. Joe's win, the field should be set with little controversy. I would be surprised if Iowa and SMU are not playing on Tuesday. Minnesota, FSU, Iowa, and NC State are going to the NIT. I agree with Lunardi on who makes the field, if not necessarily last 4 in/last 4 out.
 
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nelsonmuntz said:
I think with St. Joe's win, the field should be set with little controversy. I would be surprised if Iowa and SMU are not playing on Tuesday. Minnesota, FSU, Iowa, and NC State are going to the NIT. I agree with Lunardi on who makes the field, if not necessarily last 4 in/last 4 out.
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Be ready to be surprised.

SMU maybe, but 0 chance Iowa is.
 
Mildly surprised by SMU not getting. The bigger surprise is, if you are going to do the ACC a favor, why did NC State get in over FSU?
 
nelsonmuntz said:
Mildly surprised by SMU not getting. The bigger surprise is, if you are going to do the ACC a favor, why did NC State get in over FSU?
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NC State has no right being in the tournament. Which means they'll win two games or so.
 
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tzznandrew said:
NC State has no right being in the tournament. Which means they'll win two games or so.
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Just remember, Gottfried is their coach.....they'll be done after a very quick cup of coffee
 
The theory being propagated on local radio here is that the NCAA needs an NBA-bound star to promote viewership of the Tuesday games. Thus, Tuesday will now be celebrated by ESPN and others as "TJ Warren Day".

Of course, the sensible among us know this was K's work.
 
Have to give Nelson major props. Everybody thought SMU was a lock a week ago, and he was here talking about how they might have to win a game or two in the conference tournament. He was also dead-on regarding Iowa playing Tuesday, and he was 100% correct in thinking BYU was being under-sold by Lunardi.

Can't fault him for N.C. State. Nobody saw that coming.
 
Waylon did a good job, though the committee did a horrible job. They need to watch some games and rely less on computer ratings.
 
FWIW, Lunardi hit on 40 of 68 correct seeds.
He underseeded 11 and overseeded 16.
Only bubble team he missed was SMU.

Perhaps most interesting were the ones he missed by more than 1 seed:
UConn/Kentucky: overseeded by 2
UVA/St Louis/Colorado: underseeded by 2 (although UVA is understandable as his final bracket was before the ACC final).
UMass: underseeded by 3.
 
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