Bubble teams

[pepband99]

1 top 25 win, 4-8 vs. Top 50, 6-11 vs. Top 100, only 19 wins, 46 rpi. Falling apart down the stretch. Hardly a lock.

...and they go < 60 if they lose their opening round B1G tourney game. Has a team with < 20 wins and an RPI under even 40, much less 50, ever made it?

 

[Jerry1714]

...and they go < 60 if they lose their opening round B1G tourney game. Has a team with < 20 wins and an RPI under even 40, much less 50, ever made it?

The lowest rated teams to get at-large bids (ALB): #67 USC, #64 Marquette (2011), #63 NC State (2005), #63 Stanford (2007).

Fewest wins to get an ALB: 17 (Alabama - 2006)

Worst record to get an ALB: 18-14 .563 (Arizona - 2008, Michigan St - 2011)

Iowa has 2 losses outside the Top 50. No chance they do not get in.

 

[pepband99]

The lowest rated teams to get at-large bids (ALB): #67 USC, #64 Marquette (2011), #63 NC State (2005), #63 Stanford (2007).

Fewest wins to get an ALB: 17 (Alabama - 2006)

Worst record to get an ALB: 18-14 .563 (Arizona - 2008, Michigan St - 2011)

Iowa has 2 losses outside the Top 50. No chance they do not get in.

2011:
USC was 19-14, with a SOS around 37
Marquette was 20-15, SOS around 20


So, I missed a few historical outliers. You do realize trying to legitimize your "No chance they do not get it" with the ALL TIME LOWEST AT LARGE BIDS EVER isn't that smart, right?

 

[Jerry1714]

2011:
USC was 19-14, with a SOS around 37
Marquette was 20-15, SOS around 20


So, I missed a few historical outliers. You do realize trying to legitimize your "No chance they do not get it" with the ALL TIME LOWEST AT LARGE BIDS EVER isn't that smart, right?

I do not need to legitimize Iowa, there is no doubt they are in the tournament.

You asked about teams with certain qualifications getting in, I provided you the worst teams to get in. That had nothing to do with Iowa.

SMU is much more debatable than Iowa, while I do not think they are debatable, I can buy it a little more.

 

[OkaForPrez]

2 things.

1) Espn's bubble watch is not conservative about "locking" teams, and will unlock them if a team picks up some bad losses.

3) Lunardi is known for switching in teams from non-major conferences into his final projections, usually without explanation. This enables him to keep stringing along fans of mediocre high major teams while keeping his track record on his final projection.

So just because espn is saying something about a team's tournament chances now doesn't mean their writers even believe it.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

You think bubble watch is not conservative because you think teams like Iowa are on the bubble.

You are on an island with a lot of your opinions, that is not bubble watches fault.

I think the bubble watch is not that conservative because it blatantly favors big conference schools that are on ESPN. Conservative or aggressive have little to do with its classifications. It still has BYU on the bubble, and it's RPI's are not even correct. According to BW, Pitt has a 41 RPI ranking and Nebraska is at 35. Both are way off.

I don't really give a s about Iowa. They are one of several schools that are in a lot of trouble right now, and have some work to do to get in. A win over Northwestern probably does the trick, but that depends on what everyone else does. You think they can lose to Northwestern and still get in. We disagree.

Another school in trouble that no one is paying attention to is Kansas State. 7 Top 50 wins, but 2-7 on the road, and one of the "neutral court" wins was in Wichita. Their best road win is over 114 Texas Tech, and they are probably going down in their next game. I can't remember ever seeing an at-large team with a resume like this one.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I think the tournament field will almost all set by Thursday night.

 

[Jerry1714]

Bubble per Lunardi

The Bubble (23 teams for 10 spots)

IN (10, in S-Curve order): 38. Colorado, 39. Pittsburgh, 40. Stanford, 41. Nebraska, 42. Tennessee, 43. Xavier, 44. Saint Joseph's, 45. Dayton, 46. Brigham Young, 47. Arkansas
OUT (13, in S-Curve order): 69. California, 70. Minnesota, 71, St. John's, 72. Providence, 73. Southern Miss, 74. Florida State, 75. Missouri, 76. Georgetown, 77. Green Bay, 78. West Virginia, 79. Utah, 80. Georgia, 81. Maryland

 

[Yonick]

You think bubble watch is not conservative because you think teams like Iowa are on the bubble.

You are on an island with a lot of your opinions, that is not bubble watches fault.

Beat the johnnies tomorrow and you're in. It won't be easy in the Garden, however.

 

[Jerry1714]

Beat the johnnies tomorrow and you're in. It won't be easy in the Garden, however.

I am not a player for PC or a fan of theirs...........

 

[UCONNfan1]

Bubble per Lunardi

The Bubble (23 teams for 10 spots)

IN (10, in S-Curve order): 38. Colorado, 39. Pittsburgh, 40. Stanford, 41. Nebraska, 42. Tennessee, 43. Xavier, 44. Saint Joseph's, 45. Dayton, 46. Brigham Young, 47. Arkansas
OUT (13, in S-Curve order): 69. California, 70. Minnesota, 71, St. John's, 72. Providence, 73. Southern Miss, 74. Florida State, 75. Missouri, 76. Georgetown, 77. Green Bay, 78. West Virginia, 79. Utah, 80. Georgia, 81. Maryland

So nice seeing SJU, Providence, Georgetown, WVU and Maryland on the outside looking in.

 

[Yonick]

I am not a player for PC or a fan of theirs......

Sorry about that, Jerry, I meant to reply to Sean, and inadvertently hit your post.
Wouldn't want to wish the PC rooting interest on anybody but Sean.

 

[huskiesnyc]

Gtown is cooked unless they win out; same with minny

Gtown has real wins that PC doesn't. As usual you guys have a pathetic OOC schedule and lost to the only semi decent teams on it - UMass and MD. The C7 is a 3 bid league.

 

[champs99and04]

Georgetown just lost to DePaul, so you can pretty much eliminate them from tournament consideration. It'd be easy to say PC gets in if they beat St. John's tomorrow, but I'm not so sure. They've got four teams to jump, and I'm not sure if a win over #59 St. John's does the trick.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Bubble per Lunardi

The Bubble (23 teams for 10 spots)

IN (10, in S-Curve order): 38. Colorado, 39. Pittsburgh, 40. Stanford, 41. Nebraska, 42. Tennessee, 43. Xavier, 44. Saint Joseph's, 45. Dayton, 46. Brigham Young, 47. Arkansas
OUT (13, in S-Curve order): 69. California, 70. Minnesota, 71, St. John's, 72. Providence, 73. Southern Miss, 74. Florida State, 75. Missouri, 76. Georgetown, 77. Green Bay, 78. West Virginia, 79. Utah, 80. Georgia, 81. Maryland

In terms of in or out, my only disagreement is Arkansas, who I think is out without a trip to the SEC finals, and I think the winner of SJU/PC is probably going, although not quite guaranteed. Cal could slip in ahead of them.

In terms of the ranking, Lunardi is way, way, way off. Dayton and Brigham Young are completely safe right now. Pitt and Iowa are near the bottom of the "In" category.

 

[champs99and04]

Meanwhile, if Stanford loses to Washington State tonight, they probably drop out of the top 50, meaning Pittsburgh would have zero top 50 RPI wins. Has a team ever gotten an at large with zero victories over the top 50?

 

[seanmc94]

Gtown has real wins that PC doesn't. As usual you guys have a pathetic OOC schedule and lost to the only semi decent teams on it - UMass and MD. The C7 is a 3 bid league.

Granted we didn't run the gauntlet you guys did; however an OOC with UK, vandy(was supposed to be decent), lasalle(sweet 16 returning 4 starters) and Umass and MD isn't awful.

 

[seanmc94]

Byu should be cooked
They beat no one all year and just lost a key guy
Minny should be done; 8-10 in conference should not make the dance

 

[nelsonmuntz]

It is worth noting that Lunardi could have assembled his team straight off the RPI with Arkansas as the only outlier. It looks like he is cleaning up some of his silliness a little early this year. Any of the last 5-6 teams can still play their way out, and there are about 5-6 teams that can play their way in. I expect a lot of that to be resolved by tonight.

Back to BYU. They have a 31 RPI, 22-11 record, 24 SOS, wins over Stanford, Texas and and Gonzaga, 8-7 vs. Top 100, yet Lunardi has them as one of the last teams in. I assume this is to drive page views of nervous BYU fans, because otherwise, I don't see his logic. If it is to drive page views from nervous BYU fans, I have anecdotal evidence that it is working based on a recent discussion with a friend of mine.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I just saw the injury to BYU's Collinsworth. That is a huge wildcard. The Committee typically doesn't punish a team that has just had an injury. They are more likely to punish a team like Colorado that has played at a measurably lower level since losing their star player (Colorado is going to the dance, but they will have a 10ish seed). Cincinnati still got a 1 seed years ago when Kenyon Martin went down. I am trying to think of another example where a team lost a key player right before the dance and the committee knocked them out of the tournament altogether. They have no way of knowing how good or bad Collinsworth's backup is.

Providence's fate is pretty much in Providence's hands. If they beat St. Johns, they probably make the tournament. If they lose, they are definitely out.

 

[Waquoit]

Cincinnati still got a 1 seed years ago when Kenyon Martin went down.

I'm not sure, but didn't they get knocked down to a 2?

 

[HuskyBballFan]

Byu should be cooked
They beat no one all year and just lost a key guy
Minny should be done; 8-10 in conference should not make the dance

BYU beat Texas, Stanford, and Gonzaga and played one of the toughest non-conference schedules in the country. If they don't get in it will be because they have 4 terrible losses in conference play.

Minnesota's conference record doesn't disqualify them at all. Uconn was 8-10 in the Big East in 2012 and still got a 9 seed. They probably need to win 2 more games - but if they do, they will likely get in.

 

[Chuck]

I'm not sure, but didn't they get knocked down to a 2?

Cincy did get knocked to a two, and Huggins was not pleased. They then lost quickly. I looked it up and it was to Tulsa in the second round.

 

[pepband99]

Jerry Palm seems to be in agreement on SMU - he's not only citing them as a bubble team but also:

they have a horrible non-conference schedule and two bad losses already. It would be in their best interests to avoid a third.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebas...24481038/bracketology-a-very-bubbly-day-ahead

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Found this:

http://www.buffzone.com/ci_25129672/committee-factors-injuries

NCAA Tournament selection committee chairman Ron Wellman said Wednesday that a significant injury generally impacts seeding more than selection.