Bubble teams

[nelsonmuntz]

I think picking the bubble will be pretty easy this year for all the amateur and professional bracketologists. There is a big drop off around the 30th at large team, and none of the rest can really complain if they don't get a bid. There are not many non-majors that will earn a bid if they lose in their conference tournament. SD State, UNM, Wichita, BYU, Gonzaga and the Top 5 American schools are locks. A lot would have to happen for ND State, Toledo and Southern Miss to go to the NCAA Tournament without an automatic bid. Green Bay has the win over Virginia, so they have an outside shot if they make their conference title game.

I would not be surprised if the Committee just drew a line and took every team with a 50 RPI or better, leaving out the mid-majors that lost in their conference tournaments. For all the talk about all evaluation the committee does, RPI is the only place to start when selecting a field. The Committee really only tweaks it from there. That would leave about 4-5 bids for everyone else.

The only truly interesting bubble team is Colorado. If you just looked at them objectively based on quality wins, overall record and RPI, you would say they are in great shape for an at-large bid. If you look at them through the perspective of the fact that they lost their best player in early January and have really struggled since then, they are probably not getting in. My gut says the Committee will evaluate the team they have, not the one they had, but the Committee is not consistent on this.

 

[Waquoit]

My only interest in the bubble is that PC falls outside of it.

 

[tykurez]

Teams like New Mexico and St. Louis should still be pretty nervous. St. Louis was probably as close as you can get to a lock until recently. What if they continue to stumble and then don't win their conference tourny?

 

[HuskyBballFan]

Teams like New Mexico and St. Louis should still be pretty nervous. St. Louis was probably as close as you can get to a lock until recently. What if they continue to stumble and then don't win their conference tourny?

You just listed 2 teams who are not even close to being on the bubble. St. Louis is a 4 seed right now.

 

[SubbaBub]

Come on now, you would not like a 6 vs 11 or 5 vs 12 match-up with us? Why the hate?

No, I'd like an interesting game.

 

[SubbaBub]

The most interesting thing to me will be how many ACC teams over 4 they shoe horn in.

The BE is a 3 bid league this year unless one of PC, Stj, Gtown makes a deep msg run. That assumes Xavier wins a few more.

The A10 is looking a 5 maybe 6.

 

[huskiesnyc]

That's the last thing in the world we want. If we somehow managed to lose the meltdown here would be catastrophic. Personally I would probably be forced into early Boneyard retirement, and I really don't want to do that.

 

[Yonick]

No, I'd like an interesting game.

You guys have a biggie tonite FriarJ. If you win you just might get your wish.

 

[AZHuskiePop]

The tourney is difficult enough without having to play someone, who winning for them would equate to NC. By the way the hate is on the PC side ,
Indifference is a typical UConn reaction to PC. That is dangerous.
Can you appreciate the difference in motivation. Look at BC .
They played their two best games against a UConn and Cuse.
Inspired mediocrity can sometimes trump indifference.

 

[Jerry1714]

Teams like New Mexico and St. Louis should still be pretty nervous. St. Louis was probably as close as you can get to a lock until recently. What if they continue to stumble and then don't win their conference tourny?

St. Louis could lose out and be in the tourney easily, their RPI is 14. They are a lock.

 

[nadav]

If the BE is gonna get 4, I'd like it to be PC.

I'll be one of the 11,000 national viewers.

 

[caw]

I couldn't care less if PC makes it or not, but I don't want to play them because I want UConn to get a four seed or higher.

 

[seanmc94]

We find out tonight if PC is NCAA material. Tourney teams win these games.

 

[champs99and04]

What I'm not understanding is why Pittsburgh is considered a tournament lock. Their RPI is 50 and they are 1-6 against the top 50 with no marquee wins. They just lost at home last night to a mediocre N.C. State team. Shouldn't they at least have to win @ Clemson on Saturday to feel good going into the ACC tournament?

 

[HuskyBballFan]

What I'm not understanding is why Pittsburgh is considered a tournament lock. Their RPI is 50 and they are 1-6 against the top 50 with no marquee wins. They just lost at home last night to a mediocre N.C. State team. Shouldn't they at least have to win @ Clemson on Saturday to feel good going into the ACC tournament?

They are absolutely not considered a lock.

 

[Yonick]

We find out tonight if PC is NCAA material. Tourney teams win these games.

As of 6:30PM on Tuesday, both Palm & Lombardi (or whatever his name is) have PC out of the tourney. A win vs Marquette gets PC as last 4 in. But, I do believe they need to win 1 game in the BE tourney.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Lunardi's job right now is to promote games on ESPN networks. PC is on Fox. Don't expect much love from Lunardi for teams not on ESPN until his final bracket.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Cal had a rough night last night, and Colorado probably locked up a bid.

As I said in another thread, SMU needs another quality win to get a bid. If they lose to Memphis on Saturday and UConn wins, SMU plays in the 4/5 game with Memphis. They lose that game, they are 23-9 with an RPI around 60. they would be out. If SMU gets the 3 seed, and plays Houston in the first round, that could help a little but probably doesn't get them back on the right side of the bubble. Right now, SMU has 4 Top 100 wins, but the RPI is the bigger problem. Those losses to USF and Temple are killing SMU right now.

 

[HuskyBballFan]

Cal had a rough night last night, and Colorado probably locked up a bid.

As I said in another thread, SMU needs another quality win to get a bid. If they lose to Memphis on Saturday and UConn wins, SMU plays in the 4/5 game with Memphis. They lose that game, they are 23-9 with an RPI around 60. they would be out. If SMU gets the 3 seed, and plays Houston in the first round, that could help a little but probably doesn't get them back on the right side of the bubble. Right now, SMU has 4 Top 100 wins, but the RPI is the bigger problem. Those losses to USF and Temple are killing SMU right now.

Wanna bet?

 

[Waquoit]

We find out tonight if PC is NCAA material. Tourney teams win these games.

Home games? I suppose.

 

[metsfan2323]

Cal had a rough night last night, and Colorado probably locked up a bid.

As I said in another thread, SMU needs another quality win to get a bid. If they lose to Memphis on Saturday and UConn wins, SMU plays in the 4/5 game with Memphis. They lose that game, they are 23-9 with an RPI around 60. they would be out. If SMU gets the 3 seed, and plays Houston in the first round, that could help a little but probably doesn't get them back on the right side of the bubble. Right now, SMU has 4 Top 100 wins, but the RPI is the bigger problem. Those losses to USF and Temple are killing SMU right now.

SMU is in, at worst they would be in the Tuesday play in game. SMU and Larry Brown are one of the better stories in this college basketball season, they will not get dumped for Providence or Dayton.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

If they are 23-9 with no top 25 wins and only 4 Top 100 wins, SMU is out, good story or not.