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Bubble teams

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Meanwhile, if Stanford loses to Washington State tonight, they probably drop out of the top 50, meaning Pittsburgh would have zero top 50 RPI wins. Has a team ever gotten an at large with zero victories over the top 50?
 
huskiesnyc said:
Gtown has real wins that PC doesn't. As usual you guys have a pathetic OOC schedule and lost to the only semi decent teams on it - UMass and MD. The C7 is a 3 bid league.
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Granted we didn't run the gauntlet you guys did; however an OOC with UK, vandy(was supposed to be decent), lasalle(sweet 16 returning 4 starters) and Umass and MD isn't awful.
 
Byu should be cooked
They beat no one all year and just lost a key guy
Minny should be done; 8-10 in conference should not make the dance
 
It is worth noting that Lunardi could have assembled his team straight off the RPI with Arkansas as the only outlier. It looks like he is cleaning up some of his silliness a little early this year. Any of the last 5-6 teams can still play their way out, and there are about 5-6 teams that can play their way in. I expect a lot of that to be resolved by tonight.

Back to BYU. They have a 31 RPI, 22-11 record, 24 SOS, wins over Stanford, Texas and and Gonzaga, 8-7 vs. Top 100, yet Lunardi has them as one of the last teams in. I assume this is to drive page views of nervous BYU fans, because otherwise, I don't see his logic. If it is to drive page views from nervous BYU fans, I have anecdotal evidence that it is working based on a recent discussion with a friend of mine.
 
I just saw the injury to BYU's Collinsworth. That is a huge wildcard. The Committee typically doesn't punish a team that has just had an injury. They are more likely to punish a team like Colorado that has played at a measurably lower level since losing their star player (Colorado is going to the dance, but they will have a 10ish seed). Cincinnati still got a 1 seed years ago when Kenyon Martin went down. I am trying to think of another example where a team lost a key player right before the dance and the committee knocked them out of the tournament altogether. They have no way of knowing how good or bad Collinsworth's backup is.

Providence's fate is pretty much in Providence's hands. If they beat St. Johns, they probably make the tournament. If they lose, they are definitely out.
 
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seanmc94 said:
Byu should be cooked
They beat no one all year and just lost a key guy
Minny should be done; 8-10 in conference should not make the dance
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BYU beat Texas, Stanford, and Gonzaga and played one of the toughest non-conference schedules in the country. If they don't get in it will be because they have 4 terrible losses in conference play.

Minnesota's conference record doesn't disqualify them at all. Uconn was 8-10 in the Big East in 2012 and still got a 9 seed. They probably need to win 2 more games - but if they do, they will likely get in.
 
Waquoit said:
I'm not sure, but didn't they get knocked down to a 2?
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Cincy did get knocked to a two, and Huggins was not pleased. They then lost quickly. I looked it up and it was to Tulsa in the second round.
 
nelsonmuntz said:
Back to BYU. They have a 31 RPI, 22-11 record, 24 SOS, wins over Stanford, Texas and and Gonzaga, 8-7 vs. Top 100, yet Lunardi has them as one of the last teams in. I assume this is to drive page views of nervous BYU fans, because otherwise, I don't see his logic.
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For every good win they have an even worse loss. They should be right on the cut line.

Meantime, I've just having a difficult time thinking CUSA is just a one-bid conference. I think So. Miss gets in even if LaTech wins the conference tourney. Not so sure if LaTech gets in if So Miss wins though.
 
storrsroars said:
For every good win they have an even worse loss. They should be right on the cut line.

Meantime, I've just having a difficult time thinking CUSA is just a one-bid conference. I think So. Miss gets in even if LaTech wins the conference tourney. Not so sure if LaTech gets in if So Miss wins though.
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For all Lunardi's posturing that he knows the secret sauce of the selection committee, he basically went straight RPI, because he knows that is what the Committee does. BYU has a 31 RPI and 6 Top 100 wins. The only thing putting them near the cut line is Collinsworth's injury, and that factor is hard to handicap.
 
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storrsroars said:
For every good win they have an even worse loss. They should be right on the cut line.

Meantime, I've just having a difficult time thinking CUSA is just a one-bid conference. I think So. Miss gets in even if LaTech wins the conference tourney. Not so sure if LaTech gets in if So Miss wins though.
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CUSA is a one bid conference. Southern Miss may get another look if they lose in the conference finals, but at this point, there are too many bubble teams picking up wins for Southern Miss to survive without an automatic bid.
 
It is not looking good for SMU. Providence, Pitt and Dayton are going to win. KState lost, but they are probably still in front of SMU. Missouri is probably about even with SMU, but Missouri still has a chance to win more games. SMU basically needs every game the rest of the day to break in their direction, or they are out of the tournament in my opinion.
 
ESPN has started waffling too:

We've had SMU locked up since its March 1 win over UCF -- its remaining conference schedule (Louisville and Memphis) wasn't a threat to its at-large status. The Mustangs went on to lose both of those games, but, hey, no big deal. Now? After Thursday's loss to RPI No. 157 Houston? The Mustangs are thoroughly shaking our confidence. SMU's resume now has three sub-150 RPI wins; just four top-50 victories; a 4-6 mark against the top 100; 19 of its 31 games against teams ranked outside the top 150; and a truly disconcerting nonconference schedule ranking (305 as of Thursday afternoon). We still think the Mustangs will get in, relative to most of the bubble, and we're loath to override a lock. But if the rest of the bubble makes a collective upward shift in the next two days, we may be forced to reconsider.
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Looks like someone at ESPN is reading the Boneyard.

SMU needs one of those bloodbath bubble Thursdays that seem to happen every 2 or 3 years, where most of the bubble blows itself up in the first round of their conference tournaments. So far, it isn't looking good for the Mustangs, but hope is not lost. Marquette over Xavier, South Carolina over Arkansas, Colorado over Cal and Northwestern over Iowa, together with a St. Joe's loss tomorrow, and SMU is back in good shape. If SMU gets 3 of those games to go their way, I give SMU a little less than a 50/50 chance. 2 or less, NIT.
 
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Arkansas is finished. Colorado is hanging by a thread over cal, and Colorado looks gassed.
 
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Still think SMU makes it, if only because of the reputation and four wins over top 25 teams. Yes their strength of schedule will hurt them but I see them as a 10 seed as worse.
 
SMU ended their game needing the equivalent of drawing 3 cards towards an inside straight. I would say they have drawn 2 so far with Cal and Arkansas losing. Marquette over Xavier could put SMU back in good shape. I have only watched pieces of Iowa/Northwestern, and Northwestern looks a little outmatched, so I don't think SMU will get any help there..
 
SMU has the advantage of Brown being an interesting story.

No one will ever make me understand why injuries impact seeding. The seeding should be on what you did - not on what you are projected to do.
 
Nelson is the most interesting poster here. Some time I read him and I am like, "man, he nailed that point better than anyone else here by far."

Other times I am like, "man, meth ruins lives."

Keeps it interesting......
 
Iowa goes down to a painfully unathletic Northwestern team. If Iowa was a higher profile program, McCaffrey would be in trouble, but no one outside of flyover country is paying attention. His blow up, suspension, and subsequent nosedive is one of the worst coaching performances I can recall in recent years. A team with Roy Marble and a very good supporting cast is in real danger of missing the Dance.

SMU is in a lot better shape at 11:15 than they were at 2:15 today. Marquette could put them over the top.
 
Here is how I see it:

SMU is one of the last teams in the dance, and is almost definitely playing in Dayton. I have SMU ahead of Iowa at the very bottom of the bubble, with both squeaking in. I have an empty slot for my last team for right now (more on that later).

5 bubble teams are still playing and need to win to go to the dance:

Tennessee over South Carolina
Providence over Seton Hall
Florida State over Virginia
Minnesota over Wisconsin
Missouri over Florida

I put them in order of likeliness of a win. Tennessee and Providence just need to avoid bad losses, and Tennessee may even be able to survive a bad loss. The other 3 teams' resumes are not as strong as SMU's right now, and a "good" loss isn't going to help them. If any of FSU, Minnesota or Missouri win, SMU moves down a slot, and may drop out altogether. I don't think any of those schools are going to win, but SMU will be sweating it out today.

St. Joe's is near the cusp, but I don't think a loss to Dayton hurts them enough to drop them out. Dayton is safely in the tournament.

Iowa - Bubble Watch and Lunardi still have them safely in the dance, I think they are the second to last team in right now.

Lunardi annoys me because he has so many mistakes. For example, his bids by conference for the Big East and Pac 12 do not tie out to his bracket. He lists Arkansas in his "Next Four Out" but then has them in his bracket. It is very sloppy for a journalist to be making those mistakes.

Since Lunardi doesn't have a last team in the dance, neither do I. I suspect one of the FSU, Minn, Mizzou teams will pull the upset and take a bid. If they all lose, maybe there is a spot for Southern Miss or Toledo.
 
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aaaaand St. Louis loses to St. Bonaventure, who finished with a stellar 6-10 in the A 10.

SLU will be limping in to the tournament finishing 1-4 by squeaking by UMass. Their best win is VCU at home i.e. they have not beat a single P5 team.

I believe they were projected to be a 6 seed this morning before. How far do they fall now? Do they deserve the bubble?
 
I'm sure SMU & Iowa are happy that Missouri and FSU lost today. As SMU & Iowa both have RPIs in the 50s, the sweating should continue.
 
St. Joe's won, Missouri and FSU lost. The field is just about set if Providence beats Seton Hall tonight. I don't know who the last at large is if Minnesota loses.
 
babysheep said:
aaaaand St. Louis loses to St. Bonaventure, who finished with a stellar 6-10 in the A 10.

SLU will be limping in to the tournament finishing 1-4 by squeaking by UMass. Their best win is VCU at home i.e. they have not beat a single P5 team.

I believe they were projected to be a 6 seed this morning before. How far do they fall now? Do they deserve the bubble?
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I've been saying since their loss to Duquesne that they should be worried - but others are right, they're a lock.

A bad lock at that though ... and the state of college basketball at the moment. They have an incredibly unimpressive resume.
 
tykurez said:
I've been saying since their loss to Duquesne that they should be worried - but others are right, they're a lock.

A bad lock at that though ... and the state of college basketball at the moment. They have an incredibly unimpressive resume.
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Name one A10 team you would worry about playing in the dance? Hard to believe 5-6 incredibly average teams are all a lock, it's a weird year.
 
Vcu, umass and Dayton are all tough. GW could pick off a team having an off night. St. Joes is just a well coached, under talented team that will be outmatched next weekend. I don't like Jim Crews.
 
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