Bubble teams | Page 2 | The Boneyard

Bubble teams

TerpWomenFan said:
Mid Majors if they lose their conference championship:
shoo in: Missouri State, Gonzaga, Princeton,
others: Central Michigan, DePaul, Old Diminion, Drake, FGCU, W. Kentucky, South Dakota, Bradley, Marquette,
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DePaul, South Dakota and FGCU are 100% locks at this point.

For Central Michigan and Drake, they would have to lose every game from here on out (not just the conference tournament) to blow their bid.
 
Google spreadsheet NCAA WBB Bubble (Week 17)

Dark is Top 50 (Q1)
Medium is Top 51-100 (Q2)
Light is Top 101-351 (Q3 & Q4)

Blue = Upcoming
Red = Loss
Green = Win

1582681995001.png


*Creme Bracketology as at 24-Feb-2020 and RPI as at 23-Feb-2020
 
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Great job @maccca3232 on this. The inconsistent issue I have is look at some of the RPI's (and yes, schedule and Q1 wins also) for some of the teams CC has on the bubble-GT at #78? Colorado at #90? Rice at #78? Tennessee at #54? And then he completely disrespects Bradley #37, UCF #39 and Western KY #33.

Teams with scheduling issues upcoming are Texas, Purdue, Iowa State and Tennessee (not listed is @Auburn who have been playing much better-Texas A&M aside). I hope all these teams lose to prove a point of P5 overrated...
 
DefenseBB said:
The inconsistent issue I have is look at some of the RPI's (and yes, schedule and Q1 wins also) for some of the teams CC has on the bubble-GT at #78? Colorado at #90? Rice at #78? Tennessee at #54? And then he completely disrespects Bradley #37, UCF #39 and Western KY #33.
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I have updated the screenshot to add Massey Rankings as well as latest RPI.
Note 1: Although my previous post mentioned RPI as at 23-Feb-2020 it was still showing 22-Feb-2020.
Note 2: Updated Bubble teams based on new Bracketology as at 25-Feb-2020. Only change is Ohio St. replaced Duke (now #7 seed).

1583116104090.png


*Creme Bracketology as at 25-Feb-2020 and RPI as at 24-Feb-2020 and Massey as at 24-Feb-2020
 
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triaddukefan said:
Is GaTech still in... or back to the bubble?
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The RPI of #72 is worrying. If I recall correctly, no team with an RPI of worse than 73 has made the tournament as an at large since 2000. Only two teams with an RPI worse than 67 have made the tournament since 2003 as an at large. Iowa State was the most recent major to make it into the tournament with an RPI of #71 in 2017. It'll depend on what playing NC State does for Georgia Tech's RPI. I don't think they've done enough.
 
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Lorcan said:
The RPI of #72 is worrying. If I recall correctly, no team with an RPI of worse than 73 has made the tournament as an at large since 2000. Only two teams with an RPI worse than 67 have made the tournament since 2003 as an at large. Iowa State was the most recent major to make it into the tournament with an RPI of #71 in 2017. It'll depend on what playing NC State does for Georgia Tech's RPI. I don't think they've done enough.
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The RPI is currently 81 for GaTech after tonight
 
triaddukefan said:
The RPI is currently 81 for GaTech after tonight
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WNIT.

it literally came down to this last game vs State.. It was win you’re in. They didn’t win.

Boston College meanwhile is right on the bubble now. Duke did them a solid.
 
Plebe said:
WNIT.

it literally came down to this last game vs State.. It was win you’re in. They didn’t win.

Boston College meanwhile is right on the bubble now. Duke did them a solid.
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those losses to ND, Wake, and Tar Heel came back to bite them in the stinger
 
Lorcan said:
The RPI of #72 is worrying. If I recall correctly, no team with an RPI of worse than 73 has made the tournament as an at large since 2000. Only two teams with an RPI worse than 67 have made the tournament since 2003 as an at large. Iowa State was the most recent major to make it into the tournament with an RPI of #71 in 2017. It'll depend on what playing NC State does for Georgia Tech's RPI. I don't think they've done enough.
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Iowa State's RPI in 2017 was #60.

I can only find data going back to 2002, and AFAICT the lowest-RPI teams to receive at-large bids since then are:

2010: Green Bay #70
2006: Missouri #68
2002: Mississippi State #67
2016: Purdue #66

If you know of a good data source that goes back farther than 2002, I'd love to know about it.
 
That 2002 Mississippi State team had LaToya Thomas and Tan White on it. Do great players get questionable teams more consideration for selection?
 
Lorcan said:
The RPI of #72 is worrying. If I recall correctly, no team with an RPI of worse than 73 has made the tournament as an at large since 2000. Only two teams with an RPI worse than 67 have made the tournament since 2003 as an at large. Iowa State was the most recent major to make it into the tournament with an RPI of #71 in 2017. It'll depend on what playing NC State does for Georgia Tech's RPI. I don't think they've done enough.
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It's not part of the criteria. More likely it was their two top-25 wins that helped get them in. But you never know what helps. Maybe a committee member liked their uniforms that year.
 
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Plebe said:
Iowa State's RPI in 2017 was #60.

I can only find data going back to 2002, and AFAICT the lowest-RPI teams to receive at-large bids since then are:

2010: Green Bay #70
2006: Missouri #68
2002: Mississippi State #67
2016: Purdue #66

If you know of a good data source that goes back farther than 2002, I'd love to know about it.
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According to Warren Nolan RPI, Northern Iowa had the RPI of #60 in 2016-2017. Iowa State was #71 in 2017. You would be correct that they had an RPI of 60 according to the official NCAA RPI prior to selection. I knew I should've used the official data, silly me.
 
garddog said:
That 2002 Mississippi State team had LaToya Thomas and Tan White on it. Do great players get questionable teams more consideration for selection?
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Your question reminds me of the year Rachel Banham made her splash with some huge scoring games for Minnesota, including the famous 60-point game after which Kobe gave her a s/o.

I had a lengthy back and forth with a couple Minnesota fans who were blue in the face arguing that the committee should give MN a bid just because of the Banham phenomenon. They didn't want to hear "not part of the critera" :rolleyes: It was a rather typical Marlene Stolllings team that scored lots of points but played terrible defense, as well as a terrible nonconference SOS that dragged their RPI down very low. They didn't get in.
 
Is TN safely in after the KY blowout?

Creme says not yet (although everyone on BY is sure the committee will bend over backwards for them)

www.espn.com

Will Tennessee get at an-large bid to the women's NCAA tournament?

Arkansas, Ohio State and Boston College made the biggest waves in Bracketology. But Tennessee should be very nervous after a SEC quarterfinals loss.
www.espn.com www.espn.com
 
eebmg said:
Is TN safely in?

Creme says not yet (although everyone on BY is sure the committee will bend over backwards for them)

www.espn.com

Will Tennessee get at an-large bid to the women's NCAA tournament?

Arkansas, Ohio State and Boston College made the biggest waves in Bracketology. But Tennessee should be very nervous after a SEC quarterfinals loss.
www.espn.com www.espn.com
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It's sadly true that the bubble is *terribly* weak this year. There is a huge drop-off between the 8/9 seeds and those last 8-10 teams that are needed to complete the field. The 32 at-large teams have to come from somewhere.

When you compare Tennessee's resume to those of the other 16-20 teams that might possibly be considered for those last 8-10 at-large spots, it's objectively impossible to deny that the Vols are going to be in the field -- barring an inordinate number of "bid stealers" from the mid-major conferences. TN's perfect record against teams outside the top 50, combined with their one quality win over LSU, sets them apart from the teams that are immediately around the cut line. There is literally no other bubble team with a perfect record against sub-50 teams, and many of them don't have any wins better than TN's win over LSU.

Creme's "last four in" as of today are James Madison, Old Dominion, Western Kentucky and UCF. And his "first four out" are Boston College, St. John's, Bradley and Georgia Tech. Anyone who thinks that Tennessee shouldn't be in the tournament needs to take a close look at the resumes of these 8 teams. No objective analysis of their bodies of work can possibly deem these teams to be ahead of Tennessee in the pecking order.
 
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triaddukefan said:
broke my heart.... not sure if i can bear to watch the highlights
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I saw a few highlights on one of the TVs as I was walking through hotel/casino land on my way to the game this afternoon.

Tough way to lose. It's the stuff of March. For every thrilling victory there's an agonizing defeat :oops:
 
Doing some bubble math here:

The following 31 teams are absolute locks (regardless of any potential loss in conference tournament, for those still in action):
  • Pac-12: Oregon, Stanford, UCLA, Arizona, Oregon St, Arizona St
  • Big Ten: Maryland, Northwestern, Iowa, Indiana, Ohio St, Michigan
  • SEC: South Carolina, Mississippi St, Texas A&M, Kentucky, Arkansas
  • ACC: Louisville, NC State, Florida St, Duke
  • Big 12: Baylor, TCU, Iowa State
  • Others: UConn, Gonzaga, DePaul, Missouri St, Princeton, South Dakota, Drake
The following 7 teams are highly probable NCAA tournament teams. I think of them as "bubble adjacent."
  • Big Ten: Purdue, Rutgers
  • Big 12: Texas
  • SEC: LSU
  • ACC: Virginia Tech
  • Others: Marquette, FGCU
Barring any "bid steals" in the remaining conference tournaments, these 38 teams will include 12 automatic qualifiers and 26 at-large teams. That would leave 6 remaining at-large bids available.

Edit (3/9): Gonzaga lost in the WCC semifinals, and so now they drop to the at-large pool. That means the above 38 teams include 11 auto bids and 27 at-large teams, with 5 remaining at-large bids for bubble teams.

And now ... THE BUBBLE. And it's a gnarly mess this year. The following is a "long list" of all teams with a remote possibility of consideration as an at-large team.

The following 9 bubble teams have already completed conference tournament play:
  • SEC: Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama
  • ACC: Boston College, Georgia Tech
  • Big East: Creighton, St. John's, Seton Hall
  • AAC: UCF
The following 15 bubble teams are still in contention for their conference tournament title:
  • Big 12: West Virginia, Oklahoma St, Kansas St
  • Missouri Valley: Bradley, Northern Iowa, Illinois St
  • Conference USA: Old Dominion, Western Kentucky, MTSU, Rice, Charlotte
  • Colonial: James Madison, Drexel
  • MAC: Central Michigan
  • AAC: Cincinnati
Of these 24 teams, I believe the 12 most likely to receive an at-large bid are:

Tennessee​
Creighton​
James Madison*​
Boston College​
Old Dominion*​
Western Kentucky*​
Central Michigan*​
Bradley*​
Northern Iowa*​
MTSU*​
Rice*​
West Virginia*​

Notes:
  • The nine teams marked with * still have to play their conference tournaments. Their position on the bubble may improve or diminish accordingly. As many as four of them may earn an automatic bid.
  • Barring any further "bid steals," 5 at-large teams will emerge from this list. Each bid steal will reduce this number by one.
 
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Blind test, :rolleyes: how do these three match up? (not much of a blind test but one can go look for themselves, just comparing the three)

1583753677145.png



Cinci, UCF, Tenn
 
Georgia and Alabama are out of the NCAAT.
 
Western Kentucky, Old Dominion, and James Madison being in seems odd to me reviewing their Massey resumes.

Must look better in the RPI.
 
Gamecockfan77 said:
Western Kentucky, Old Dominion, and James Madison being in seems odd to me reviewing their Massey resumes.

Must look better in the RPI.
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All of these teams listed have major, major problems with their resume. Tennessee's, for all its weaknesses, is actually the least problematic of the bunch.
 
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