Bubble teams

[Plebe]

Ga Tech, VPI, on the bubble after today. I wonder if BC is anywhere close to the bubble.

They're not too far from it. BC was in Creme's more recent "next 4 out." but IMHO have a lot more work to do than GT.

Virginia Tech IMO is still in after today's loss (and ahead of GT). Their margin for error has just been reduced.

 

[Wbbfan1]

This is the Year that more teams outside of P5 Conferences should make the tournament. It probably won't happen as P5 Teams have too much advantages when RPI is taken into consideration. How many P5 teams will make the tournament despite having 7-9 Conference losses and weak OOC Schedules?

 

[triaddukefan]

This is the Year that more teams outside of P5 Conferences should make the tournament. It probably won't happen as P5 Teams have too much advantages when RPI is taken into consideration. How many P5 teams will make the tournament despite having 7-9 Conference losses and weak OOC Schedules?

none

 

[Plebe]

This is the Year that more teams outside of P5 Conferences should make the tournament. It probably won't happen as P5 Teams have too much advantages when RPI is taken into consideration. How many P5 teams will make the tournament despite having 7-9 Conference losses and weak OOC Schedules?

Well, the SEC is the only "p5" conference that still plays a 16-game schedule, and all of the SEC teams in realistic contention for a bid have at least 8 wins already. So ... zero?

 

[TerpWomenFan]

With 64 bids for the taking, this is my breakdown:

27 automactic bids for non-P5 conferences
8 bids for the Big 10 (Purdue is shaky but should get in)
6 bids for the PAC 12
7 bids for the SEC (Tennessee is shaky but should get in)
5 bids for the ACC
2 bids for the Big 12
Add one for UCF (or UConn if the unthinkable happen and they lose in the AAC)

That's 56 bids. Here are teams fighting for those last 8 bids.

SEC: Alabama and Georgia (they have to win out to be considered)
Big 12: Iowa State (7-7), Texas, West Virginia (who have a losing record in the conference)
ACC: Georgia Tech, Syracuse, Boston College, UNC. (Virginia if they can put together a great end of season run, they're in because of their #2 SOS)

Mid Majors if they lose their conference championship:
shoo in: Missouri State, Gonzaga, Princeton,
others: Central Michigan, DePaul, Old Diminion, Drake, FGCU, W. Kentucky, South Dakota, Bradley, Marquette,

 

[Plebe]

Mid Majors if they lose their conference championship:
shoo in: Missouri State, Gonzaga, Princeton,
others: Central Michigan, DePaul, Old Diminion, Drake, FGCU, W. Kentucky, South Dakota, Bradley, Marquette,

DePaul, South Dakota and FGCU are 100% locks at this point.

For Central Michigan and Drake, they would have to lose every game from here on out (not just the conference tournament) to blow their bid.

 

[maccca3232]

Google spreadsheet NCAA WBB Bubble (Week 17)

Dark is Top 50 (Q1)
Medium is Top 51-100 (Q2)
Light is Top 101-351 (Q3 & Q4)

Blue = Upcoming
Red = Loss
Green = Win

*Creme Bracketology as at 24-Feb-2020 and RPI as at 23-Feb-2020

 

[DefenseBB]

Great job @maccca3232 on this. The inconsistent issue I have is look at some of the RPI's (and yes, schedule and Q1 wins also) for some of the teams CC has on the bubble-GT at #78? Colorado at #90? Rice at #78? Tennessee at #54? And then he completely disrespects Bradley #37, UCF #39 and Western KY #33.

Teams with scheduling issues upcoming are Texas, Purdue, Iowa State and Tennessee (not listed is @Auburn who have been playing much better-Texas A&M aside). I hope all these teams lose to prove a point of P5 overrated...

 

[maccca3232]

The inconsistent issue I have is look at some of the RPI's (and yes, schedule and Q1 wins also) for some of the teams CC has on the bubble-GT at #78? Colorado at #90? Rice at #78? Tennessee at #54? And then he completely disrespects Bradley #37, UCF #39 and Western KY #33.

I have updated the screenshot to add Massey Rankings as well as latest RPI.
Note 1: Although my previous post mentioned RPI as at 23-Feb-2020 it was still showing 22-Feb-2020.
Note 2: Updated Bubble teams based on new Bracketology as at 25-Feb-2020. Only change is Ohio St. replaced Duke (now #7 seed).

*Creme Bracketology as at 25-Feb-2020 and RPI as at 24-Feb-2020 and Massey as at 24-Feb-2020

 

[triaddukefan]

Is GaTech still in... or back to the bubble?

 

[Lorcan]

Is GaTech still in... or back to the bubble?

The RPI of #72 is worrying. If I recall correctly, no team with an RPI of worse than 73 has made the tournament as an at large since 2000. Only two teams with an RPI worse than 67 have made the tournament since 2003 as an at large. Iowa State was the most recent major to make it into the tournament with an RPI of #71 in 2017. It'll depend on what playing NC State does for Georgia Tech's RPI. I don't think they've done enough.

 

[triaddukefan]

The RPI of #72 is worrying. If I recall correctly, no team with an RPI of worse than 73 has made the tournament as an at large since 2000. Only two teams with an RPI worse than 67 have made the tournament since 2003 as an at large. Iowa State was the most recent major to make it into the tournament with an RPI of #71 in 2017. It'll depend on what playing NC State does for Georgia Tech's RPI. I don't think they've done enough.

The RPI is currently 81 for GaTech after tonight

 

[Plebe]

The RPI is currently 81 for GaTech after tonight

WNIT.

it literally came down to this last game vs State.. It was win you’re in. They didn’t win.

Boston College meanwhile is right on the bubble now. Duke did them a solid.

 

[triaddukefan]

WNIT.

it literally came down to this last game vs State.. It was win you’re in. They didn’t win.

Boston College meanwhile is right on the bubble now. Duke did them a solid.

those losses to ND, Wake, and Tar Heel came back to bite them in the stinger

 

[Plebe]

The RPI of #72 is worrying. If I recall correctly, no team with an RPI of worse than 73 has made the tournament as an at large since 2000. Only two teams with an RPI worse than 67 have made the tournament since 2003 as an at large. Iowa State was the most recent major to make it into the tournament with an RPI of #71 in 2017. It'll depend on what playing NC State does for Georgia Tech's RPI. I don't think they've done enough.

Iowa State's RPI in 2017 was #60.

I can only find data going back to 2002, and AFAICT the lowest-RPI teams to receive at-large bids since then are:

2010: Green Bay #70
2006: Missouri #68
2002: Mississippi State #67
2016: Purdue #66

If you know of a good data source that goes back farther than 2002, I'd love to know about it.

 

[garddog]

That 2002 Mississippi State team had LaToya Thomas and Tan White on it. Do great players get questionable teams more consideration for selection?

 

[Plebe]

The RPI of #72 is worrying. If I recall correctly, no team with an RPI of worse than 73 has made the tournament as an at large since 2000. Only two teams with an RPI worse than 67 have made the tournament since 2003 as an at large. Iowa State was the most recent major to make it into the tournament with an RPI of #71 in 2017. It'll depend on what playing NC State does for Georgia Tech's RPI. I don't think they've done enough.

It's not part of the criteria. More likely it was their two top-25 wins that helped get them in. But you never know what helps. Maybe a committee member liked their uniforms that year.

 

[Lorcan]

Iowa State's RPI in 2017 was #60.

I can only find data going back to 2002, and AFAICT the lowest-RPI teams to receive at-large bids since then are:

2010: Green Bay #70
2006: Missouri #68
2002: Mississippi State #67
2016: Purdue #66

If you know of a good data source that goes back farther than 2002, I'd love to know about it.

According to Warren Nolan RPI, Northern Iowa had the RPI of #60 in 2016-2017. Iowa State was #71 in 2017. You would be correct that they had an RPI of 60 according to the official NCAA RPI prior to selection. I knew I should've used the official data, silly me.

 

[Plebe]

That 2002 Mississippi State team had LaToya Thomas and Tan White on it. Do great players get questionable teams more consideration for selection?

Your question reminds me of the year Rachel Banham made her splash with some huge scoring games for Minnesota, including the famous 60-point game after which Kobe gave her a s/o.

I had a lengthy back and forth with a couple Minnesota fans who were blue in the face arguing that the committee should give MN a bid just because of the Banham phenomenon. They didn't want to hear "not part of the critera" It was a rather typical Marlene Stolllings team that scored lots of points but played terrible defense, as well as a terrible nonconference SOS that dragged their RPI down very low. They didn't get in.

 

[eebmg]

Is TN safely in after the KY blowout?

Creme says not yet (although everyone on BY is sure the committee will bend over backwards for them)

Will Tennessee get at an-large bid to the women's NCAA tournament?

Arkansas, Ohio State and Boston College made the biggest waves in Bracketology. But Tennessee should be very nervous after a SEC quarterfinals loss.

www.espn.com

 

[Plebe]

Is TN safely in?

Creme says not yet (although everyone on BY is sure the committee will bend over backwards for them)

Will Tennessee get at an-large bid to the women's NCAA tournament?

Arkansas, Ohio State and Boston College made the biggest waves in Bracketology. But Tennessee should be very nervous after a SEC quarterfinals loss.

www.espn.com

It's sadly true that the bubble is *terribly* weak this year. There is a huge drop-off between the 8/9 seeds and those last 8-10 teams that are needed to complete the field. The 32 at-large teams have to come from somewhere.

When you compare Tennessee's resume to those of the other 16-20 teams that might possibly be considered for those last 8-10 at-large spots, it's objectively impossible to deny that the Vols are going to be in the field -- barring an inordinate number of "bid stealers" from the mid-major conferences. TN's perfect record against teams outside the top 50, combined with their one quality win over LSU, sets them apart from the teams that are immediately around the cut line. There is literally no other bubble team with a perfect record against sub-50 teams, and many of them don't have any wins better than TN's win over LSU.

Creme's "last four in" as of today are James Madison, Old Dominion, Western Kentucky and UCF. And his "first four out" are Boston College, St. John's, Bradley and Georgia Tech. Anyone who thinks that Tennessee shouldn't be in the tournament needs to take a close look at the resumes of these 8 teams. No objective analysis of their bodies of work can possibly deem these teams to be ahead of Tennessee in the pecking order.

 

[triaddukefan]

Is UCF out now?

 

[Plebe]

Is UCF out now?

Ha I literally just posted on this. See UCF v Cinci thread on main board.

 

[maccca3232]

Is UCF out now?

 

[triaddukefan]

good