Bubble teams

[Plebe]

good

Good thing Duke is crummy and lost

 

[DefenseBB]

good

Man of few words. Sorry about UNCG...

 

[triaddukefan]

Good thing Duke is crummy and lost

have to break this out again

 

[triaddukefan]

Man of few words. Sorry about UNCG...

broke my heart.... not sure if i can bear to watch the highlights

 

[Plebe]

broke my heart.... not sure if i can bear to watch the highlights

I saw a few highlights on one of the TVs as I was walking through hotel/casino land on my way to the game this afternoon.

Tough way to lose. It's the stuff of March. For every thrilling victory there's an agonizing defeat

 

[Plebe]

Doing some bubble math here:

The following 31 teams are absolute locks (regardless of any potential loss in conference tournament, for those still in action):

• Pac-12: Oregon, Stanford, UCLA, Arizona, Oregon St, Arizona St
• Big Ten: Maryland, Northwestern, Iowa, Indiana, Ohio St, Michigan
• SEC: South Carolina, Mississippi St, Texas A&M, Kentucky, Arkansas
• ACC: Louisville, NC State, Florida St, Duke
• Big 12: Baylor, TCU, Iowa State
• Others: UConn, Gonzaga, DePaul, Missouri St, Princeton, South Dakota, Drake

The following 7 teams are highly probable NCAA tournament teams. I think of them as "bubble adjacent."

• Big Ten: Purdue, Rutgers
• Big 12: Texas
• SEC: LSU
• ACC: Virginia Tech
• Others: Marquette, FGCU

Barring any "bid steals" in the remaining conference tournaments, these 38 teams will include 12 automatic qualifiers and 26 at-large teams. That would leave 6 remaining at-large bids available.

Edit (3/9): Gonzaga lost in the WCC semifinals, and so now they drop to the at-large pool. That means the above 38 teams include 11 auto bids and 27 at-large teams, with 5 remaining at-large bids for bubble teams.

And now ... THE BUBBLE. And it's a gnarly mess this year. The following is a "long list" of all teams with a remote possibility of consideration as an at-large team.

The following 9 bubble teams have already completed conference tournament play:

• SEC: Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama
• ACC: Boston College, Georgia Tech
• Big East: Creighton, St. John's, Seton Hall
• AAC: UCF

The following 15 bubble teams are still in contention for their conference tournament title:

• Big 12: West Virginia, Oklahoma St, Kansas St
• Missouri Valley: Bradley, Northern Iowa, Illinois St
• Conference USA: Old Dominion, Western Kentucky, MTSU, Rice, Charlotte
• Colonial: James Madison, Drexel
• MAC: Central Michigan
• AAC: Cincinnati

Of these 24 teams, I believe the 12 most likely to receive an at-large bid are:

Tennessee​

Creighton​

James Madison*​

Boston College​

Old Dominion*​

Western Kentucky*​

Central Michigan*​

Bradley*​

Northern Iowa*​

MTSU*​

Rice*​

West Virginia*​

Notes:

• The nine teams marked with * still have to play their conference tournaments. Their position on the bubble may improve or diminish accordingly. As many as four of them may earn an automatic bid.
• Barring any further "bid steals," 5 at-large teams will emerge from this list. Each bid steal will reduce this number by one.

 

[mbr33ct]

Blind test, how do these three match up? (not much of a blind test but one can go look for themselves, just comparing the three)

Cinci, UCF, Tenn

 

[stwainfan]

Georgia and Alabama are out of the NCAAT.

 

[Gamecockfan77]

Western Kentucky, Old Dominion, and James Madison being in seems odd to me reviewing their Massey resumes.

Must look better in the RPI.

 

[Plebe]

Western Kentucky, Old Dominion, and James Madison being in seems odd to me reviewing their Massey resumes.

Must look better in the RPI.

All of these teams listed have major, major problems with their resume. Tennessee's, for all its weaknesses, is actually the least problematic of the bunch.

 

[UCFKnights]

Blind test, how do these three match up? (not much of a blind test but one can go look for themselves, just comparing the three)

View attachment 51759


Cinci, UCF, Tenn

Not sure how much it matters but team 1's only Q1 wins are over team 2 where team 2's win over team 1 only counts as a Q2.

 

[Plebe]

I'd say the middle team (Team 2) has the worst overall profile - two bad losses and only 1 vaguely notable win (without knowing where in the RPI 1-50 that win came). OOC SOS is high, though, so I could see why the committee might want to reward their gumption.

Team 3 has the fewest Q1 and Q2 wins, and the worst OOC SOS, but also the only team without a Q3 loss. Team 1 is kind of the reverse - best overall set of Q1 and Q2 wins, but also a Q3 loss.

Kind of a tossup between Team 1 and Team 3, though Team 1 has the better OOC SOS and I tend to prefer teams that have higher upside, so I'd go with the team with multiple Q1 wins.

**Asterisk being that I don't know how good those Q1 wins are - big difference between beating Baylor and beating Texas, even though both are "Q1"

Okay, how 'bout if I told you this: Team 1's only Q1 wins are over Team 2.

 

[sivad40]

Western Kentucky, Old Dominion, and James Madison being in seems odd to me reviewing their Massey resumes.

Must look better in the RPI.

RPI: Western Kentucky-29, Old Dominion- 33, and James Madison - 30.

 

[TheFarmFan]

Okay, how 'bout if I told you this: Team 1's only Q1 wins are over Team 2.

Haha, well the first rule of bubble watch is that when your only "good" wins are over other teams on the bubble watch, you're in trouble, so...

(Also, I realized after that the team names were posted in tiny font at the bottom.)

 

[Plebe]

The one element in Tennessee's resume that the committee may or may not be bothered by is the fact that they are only 2-0 vs. Q2 teams. You definitely improve your chances of going undefeated to sub-50 teams if you limit your exposure to teams in the 51-100 range. All other bubble teams have sub-50 losses, but their exposure was also greater in that Q2 range.

But even if that issue concerns the committee, the fact remains that almost all the other bubble teams have lost to teams ranked outside the top 100. One exception is Creighton, whose 7-6 record vs Q2 includes two losses to #98 Butler. Creighton does have two good wins over DePaul and Marquette and multiple wins over other bubble teams. A couple of near-exceptions are Old Dominion (lost twice to #101 UAB) and Bradley (lost to #107 Southern Illinois).

 

[DefenseBB]

All of these teams listed have major, major problems with their resume. Tennessee's, for all its weaknesses, is actually least problematic of the bunch.

You recall what happened to the Roman who delivered the bad news back in 100 AD right?

 

[Blueberries]

Blind test, how do these three match up? (not much of a blind test but one can go look for themselves, just comparing the three)

View attachment 51759


Cinci, UCF, Tenn

without looking at the teams, I'd take the middle, then the left, then the right..... the right one dropped off real fast in my numbers game. the other two were close, but the middle was the best of the lot.

 

[Plebe]

You recall what happened to the Roman who delivered the bad news back in 100 AD right?

I wasn't around at that time

 

[Plebe]

Central Michigan's loss to Toledo in the MAC tourney will now ignite speculation as to their potential as an at-large team.

My opinion is no. They have a high RPI (currently #22, after today's loss), but their best wins are over Dayton and Marist. They've also lost 3 of their last 4 games, including two losses to #148 Toledo.

if they are included in the tournament, it will be throwing them a huge bone just for their RPI.

 

[Plebe]

Updating the "bubble math" report:


The following 31 teams are absolute locks (regardless of any potential loss in conference tournament, for those still in action, marked by *):

• Pac-12: Oregon, Stanford, UCLA, Arizona, Oregon St, Arizona St
• Big Ten: Maryland, Northwestern, Iowa, Indiana, Ohio St, Michigan
• SEC: South Carolina, Mississippi St, Texas A&M, Kentucky, Arkansas
• ACC: Louisville, NC State, Florida St, Duke
• Big 12: Baylor*, TCU*, Iowa State*
• Others: UConn, Gonzaga, DePaul, Missouri St*, Princeton, South Dakota, Drake*

The following 7 teams are highly probable NCAA tournament teams. Call them "bubble adjacent."

• Big Ten: Purdue, Rutgers
• Big 12: Texas
• SEC: LSU
• ACC: Virginia Tech
• Others: Marquette, FGCU*

Barring any "bid steals" in the remaining conference tournaments, these 38 teams will include 12 automatic qualifiers and 26 at-large teams. That would leave 6 remaining at-large bids available.

Edit (3/9): Gonzaga lost in the WCC semifinals, and so now they drop to the at-large pool. That means the above 38 teams include 11 auto bids and 27 at-large teams, with 5 remaining at-large bids for bubble teams.

And now ... THE BUBBLE. And it's a gnarly mess this year. The following is a "long list" of all teams with a remote possibility of consideration as an at-large team.

The following 11 bubble teams have already lost in their conference tournament:

• SEC: Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama
• ACC: Boston College, Georgia Tech
• Big East: Creighton, St. John's, Seton Hall
• AAC: UCF, Cincinnati
• MAC: Central Michigan

The following 13 bubble teams are still in contention for a conference tournament title and automatic bid:

• Big 12: West Virginia, Oklahoma St, Kansas St
• Missouri Valley: Bradley, Northern Iowa, Illinois St
• Conference USA: Old Dominion, Western Kentucky, MTSU, Rice, Charlotte
• Colonial: James Madison, Drexel

Of these 24 teams, I believe the 12 most likely to receive an at-large bid are:

Tennessee
Creighton
James Madison*
Boston College
Old Dominion*
Western Kentucky*
Bradley*
Northern Iowa*
MTSU*
Rice*
West Virginia*
Georgia

Notes:

• The eight teams marked with * still have to play their conference tournaments. Their position on the bubble may improve or diminish accordingly. As many as four of them may earn an automatic bid.
• Barring any further "bid steals," 5 at-large teams will emerge from this list. Each bid steal will reduce this number by one.
• Edit (3/11): Central Michigan appeared to be relatively safe as recently as two week ago, buoyed by an extremely high RPI (in the 16-18 range). But the ended the season losing 3 out their last 4 games, including two losses to sub-.500 Toledo.

 

[Plebe]

Indeed, Charlie Creme thinks CMU is in as an at-large team. I have grave doubts about that.
Again, their *only* case for inclusion is a high RPI (#22 after today's loss). Their resume is markedly worse than UCF's was last year. UCF had a higher RPI (#15) and only one bad loss, and barely made it in as a 12 seed. CMU now has 3 bad losses, and has lost 3 of its last 4.

 

[nwhoopfan]

Indeed, Charlie Creme thinks CMU is in as an at-large team. I have grave doubts about that.
Again, their *only* case for inclusion is a high RPI (#22 after today's loss). Their resume is markedly worse than UCF's was last year. UCF had a higher RPI (#15) and only one bad loss, and barely made it in as a 12 seed. CMU now has 3 bad losses, and has lost 3 of its last 4.

I'm so confused about how RPI works. W/ several bad losses, and no particularly good wins, how is their RPI so high? Overall record of 23-7 is nothing exceptional. I just don't get it.

The MAC is continuing to shoot itself in the foot, Eastern Michigan just beat Ball St.

 

[Lorcan]

Explain to me why Purdue is a lock with a 6-13 record against the Top 100, with a sub 100 loss as well is considered a lock for you?

EDIT: or highly probable.

 

[Plebe]

I'm so confused about how RPI works. W/ several bad losses, and no particularly good wins, how is their RPI so high? Overall record of 23-7 is nothing exceptional. I just don't get it.

The MAC is continuing to shoot itself in the foot, Eastern Michigan just beat Ball St.

How To Game the RPI 101, with Professor Plebe.

First and foremost, schedule OOC games against the best teams from bad conferences -- i.e., teams that aren't as great as their W-L records will make them look.

Opponents' W-L record is by far the weightiest component (50%) of RPI. Maximize that component without suffering too many losses, and you're well on your way to maximizing your RPI.

CMU's OOC schedule includes:

• Green Bay (19-13) (they turned out worse than expected)
• Louisville (28-4) (not from a bad conference, but still an RPI booster)
• Western KY (22-7)
• Dayton (25-8)
• Marist (26-4)
• South Dakota St (22-10) (also worse than expected, but still an RPI helper)
• Bethune-Cookman (21-6)
• UCF (20-10)

If CMU hadn't lost 3 of their last 4 games, their RPI would've been in the mid-teens, exactly where UCF was last year.

 

[Plebe]

I should hasten to add that I'm not bothered by teams -- especially mid-majors -- that find the way to game the RPI. The deck is already stacked high enough against the decent mid-majors, especially when you consider that many of the so-called "power" conference teams refuse to schedule home-and-aways with them, or refuse to schedule them at all.