Bracketology - week of Jan 27

[WBBTakeover]

FWIW, Autumn Johnson, who publishes her own form of bracketology on the NCAA.com site, does indeed have Virginia in the field at this time.

Charlie Creme's biggest competition. See the link below.

2026 March Madness women's bracket predictions: Autumn Johnson's first NCAA tournament projections

With March Madness approaching, Autumn Johnson revealed her first NCAA tournament bracket predictions of the season with UConn, UCLA, South Carolina and Texas grabbing the No. 1 seeds.

www.ncaa.com

Autumn constructed this bracket on January 26 and still has UVA, who doesn't have a Q1 win, has a Q4 home loss to UMBC, got blown out by Q2 Syracuse on its home floor two weeks ago, and has one win over a P4 with a winning conference record (Clemson, whose inclusion in the field is also a little shaky), in the field. She leaves out Virginia Tech, who has a Q1 win over Syracuse, a win over the same Clemson team that Autumn credits UVA for having, no Q3 or Q4 losses, and has already played Louisville (a team that will almost certainly blow out UVA next month).

I'm convinced that these folks are not paying close attention. I know that Autumn focuses mainly on the Big Ten, but still--do the research.

 

[packwrap]

I'm curious why you say they need to "get to 9-9 in the league".

Well they made a good start toward that with the win over Iowa.

I may just be too conservative, but I figured 7-11 and 1st game tourney loss might knock them out even with their good wins.

Bubble gets interesting with the big strong leagues. Even if deserved, fans are not enthusiastic about teams with losing records getting in, unless they win the conference tourney.

 

[WBBTakeover]

Notre Dame just dropped a road game to Cal (their second straight loss after losing to Clemson). They have a fairly tough stretch of games before they get to the Wake Forest game (which isn't really a gimme anymore).

Is this a cause for concern for the Irish?

 

[BRS24]

A TGIF double bracketology, herhoopstats (orange) and ESPN.(grey). HHS will start posting brackets each week (lordy).

Megan Gauer's take:

Undefeated UConn takes the top seed, while UCLA, South Carolina and Texas all hold firm on the No. 1 seed line. The SEC and Big Ten are dominating the hosting group, but 10-0 starts for both Louisville and Duke in ACC play have both teams surging. The Cardinals have climbed to a No. 2 seed and the Blue Devils are on the hosting bubble. On the tournament bubble, the conversation centers around conference play in the Big 12 and ACC. Automatic qualifiers are selected as the team in the league with the highest Her Hoop Stats ranking. Outside of the Power 4, look out for the Big East and A10 to be multi-bid leagues. The Ivy league and Summit League also have the potential to generate bid stealers. Follow along for weekly bracketology updates for the rest of the season.​

Charlie Creme's take:

Perhaps no team this season needed a win as badly as USC did on Thursday. Not only did the Trojans register their biggest win of the year, it might have saved their season. They had lost six of their last seven games and were one more loss away from falling out of the NCAA tournament field. Instead, USC’s dominating performance against Iowa gave the Trojans their third Quad 1 win. A much more manageable portion of the schedule awaits, and a bid is safe for now. Mississippi State was equally dominant at Tennessee on Thursday and picked up its most important victory of the season. The Bulldogs earned their second Quad 1 win (both over teams in the top 20 of the NET). With a NET ranking in the top 40, the Bulldogs might have done enough to earn a second straight NCAA tournament berth, as long as they win the games they are supposed to for the rest of the season.​

An interesting juxtaposition between Megan and Charlie's #1 picks. Regionally, HHS has UConn from 2 to 1, UCLA from 3 to 2, S Carolina from 4 to 3, and Texas from 1 to 4.

No changes to the ESPN top 16, however HHS added OSU, MSU, Tennessee, and Baylor, while removing MD, USC, ISU, and UNC.

	HHS	ESPN
Big Ten	12	12
SEC	11	11
ACC	8	9
Big 12	8	8
Big East	2	2
Atlantic 10	2

 

[ConnMotors]

Great win for USC over Iowa. I thought that hat would be one of their losses. Guess that there is an opening for them unless they fall apart like ND is doing.

 

[GamecockFam]

I really think it's going to come down to which team wins the SEC regular season that will decide the order between South Carolina and Texas as the #3/4 overall team. I guess if UCLA has an unexpected loss that could push them down, but I don't think that will happen. UConn and UCLA fans will probably want to pay close attention to the SEC race as that may have big implications on who they are most likely to face in the final four -- UConn will probably face the #2 SEC team and UCLA will probably face the #1 SEC team.

 

[WBBTakeover]

A TGIF double bracketology, herhoopstats (orange) and ESPN.(grey). HHS will start posting brackets each week (lordy).

Megan Gauer's take:

Undefeated UConn takes the top seed, while UCLA, South Carolina and Texas all hold firm on the No. 1 seed line. The SEC and Big Ten are dominating the hosting group, but 10-0 starts for both Louisville and Duke in ACC play have both teams surging. The Cardinals have climbed to a No. 2 seed and the Blue Devils are on the hosting bubble. On the tournament bubble, the conversation centers around conference play in the Big 12 and ACC. Automatic qualifiers are selected as the team in the league with the highest Her Hoop Stats ranking. Outside of the Power 4, look out for the Big East and A10 to be multi-bid leagues. The Ivy league and Summit League also have the potential to generate bid stealers. Follow along for weekly bracketology updates for the rest of the season.​

Charlie Creme's take:

Perhaps no team this season needed a win as badly as USC did on Thursday. Not only did the Trojans register their biggest win of the year, it might have saved their season. They had lost six of their last seven games and were one more loss away from falling out of the NCAA tournament field. Instead, USC’s dominating performance against Iowa gave the Trojans their third Quad 1 win. A much more manageable portion of the schedule awaits, and a bid is safe for now. Mississippi State was equally dominant at Tennessee on Thursday and picked up its most important victory of the season. The Bulldogs earned their second Quad 1 win (both over teams in the top 20 of the NET). With a NET ranking in the top 40, the Bulldogs might have done enough to earn a second straight NCAA tournament berth, as long as they win the games they are supposed to for the rest of the season.​

An interesting juxtaposition between Megan and Charlie's #1 picks. Regionally, HHS has UConn from 2 to 1, UCLA from 3 to 2, S Carolina from 4 to 3, and Texas from 1 to 4.

No changes to the ESPN top 16, however HHS added OSU, MSU, Tennessee, and Baylor, while removing MD, USC, ISU, and UNC.

View attachment 116569

	HHS	ESPN
Big Ten	12	12
SEC	11	11
ACC	8	9
Big 12	8	8
Big East	2	2
Atlantic 10	2

Who is this Megan person? Again, do these people pay any attention to what's going on?

How do you have Clemson and Syracuse in and not the team that beat them both?

 

[Bigboote]

Her Hoop Stats ADDED Tennessee after they got spanked by Mississippi State? I hope HHS made up their bracket yesterday and took their time posting it.

 

[Phil]

Her Hoop Stats ADDED Tennessee after they got spanked by Mississippi State? I hope HHS made up their bracket yesterday and took their time posting it.

Sounds reasonable to me. Tennessee was 8 – 3 on 12/31, ranked 17th in Massey so just outside the top 16. They are 6 – 1 since then, and moved up to number 15 in Massey so inside the top 16. Megan obviously uses HHS stats, not Massey, but it seems quite reasonable.

 

[Phil]

Who is this Megan person? Again, do these people pay any attention to what's going on?

How do you have Clemson and Syracuse in and not the team that beat them both?

Virginia Tech out is a little tougher to explain. Maybe the 9 point loss to James Madison hurts more than Clemson's 3 -point loss to Georgia Tech ?

 

[WBBTakeover]

Virginia Tech out is a little tougher to explain. Maybe the 9 point loss to James Madison hurts more than Clemson's 3 -point loss to Georgia Tech ?

It shouldn't, especially since Georgia Tech is a worse team than James Madison.

I'm also puzzled as to the value of Q1 wins. If they're so valuable, why are Nebraska (0-4) and North Carolina (0-4) safely in the field without one?

 

[sivad40]

It shouldn't, especially since Georgia Tech is a worse team than James Madison.

I'm also puzzled as to the value of Q1 wins. If they're so valuable, why are Nebraska (0-4) and North Carolina (0-4) safely in the field without one?

Nebraska and North Carolina are currently 20 and 21 in the NET rankings; Virginia Tech is 43. Clemson and Syracuse are 39 and 40.

 

[Vowelguy]

Princeton trailing Columbia by 4 heading into the 4th. On
ESPNU

 

[Vowelguy]

Princeton trailing Columbia by 4 heading into the 4th. On
ESPNU

Princeton toast. Down 10 with 90 seconds to go.

 

[Vowelguy]

Princeton toast. Down 10 with 90 seconds to go.

Oops thought I was in the game results thread

 

[WBBTakeover]

Nebraska and North Carolina are currently 20 and 21 in the NET rankings; Virginia Tech is 43. Clemson and Syracuse are 39 and 40.

Which says that the NET rating can be manipulated. So, beating HBCUs by 60 in November must really mean something.

Again, if Q1 wins are so meaningful, then why are teams that don't have one this deep in the season considered to be comfortably in the field?

 

[sivad40]

Which says that the NET rating can be manipulated. So, beating HBCUs by 60 in November must really mean something.

Again, if Q1 wins are so meaningful, then why are teams that don't have one this deep in the season considered to be comfortably in the field?

Margin of victory is taking in account regardless of whether it is an HBCU or not.

Four out of those five teams I mentioned also has winning Q2 records except for one. Would you like to take a guess which one it is?

 

[Vowelguy]

Again, if Q1 wins are so meaningful, then why are teams that don't have one this deep in the season considered to be comfortably in the field?

1) Just because someone says a team is "comfortably in," doesnt make it so. All speculation at this point.
2) There is no litmus test, and EVERYTHING is relative to the other teams. A team with a poor resume may get selected because the other resumes are even worse.
3) The key word is "resume". Need to look at their entire record. Q1 wins matter. But Q3/Q4 losses do as well.

I don't know if you ever tried picking the 32 at-large teams, but it is not easy. The bubble teams are typically pretty poor, so it becomes an exercise in "who sucks the least."

 

[WBBTakeover]

Margin of victory is taking in account regardless of whether it is an HBCU or not.

The point is that it's easier to run up the score on an HBCU than just about any other D1 team.

Four out of those five teams I mentioned also has winning Q2 records except for one. Would you like to take a guess which one it is?

So Q2 wins are more valuable than Q1?

I know you're a UNC fan, but this is a bit much. To not have ONE Q1 win this late in the season is saying a lot.

 

[sivad40]

The point is that it's easier to run up the score on an HBCU than just about any other D1 team.



So Q2 wins are more valuable than Q1?

I know you're a UNC fan, but this is a bit much. To not have ONE Q1 win this late in the season is saying a lot.

Is having a losing Q2 record worse that having a losing Q1 record? UNC is currently tied with a few others with having the most Q2 wins (6). Oklahoma St. is another team that currently doesn't have any Q1 wins that safely in the field.

 

[WBBTakeover]

Is having a losing Q2 record worse that having a losing Q1 record? UNC is currently tied with a few others with having the most Q2 wins (6). Oklahoma St. is another team that currently doesn't have any Q1 wins that safely in the field.

Having ZERO Q1 wins when people are touting a team as one of the best in a conference IS bad. Q2 wins do not completely offset that. Q1 wins are mainly wins over great teams or road wins over good teams. Q2 wins are mainly wins that you're supposed to get (home wins over good teams or road wins over fairly average teams).

Are y'all not capable of beating great teams or beating good teams away from Carmichael?

 

[sivad40]

Having ZERO Q1 wins when people are touting a team as one of the best in a conference IS bad. Q2 wins do not completely offset that. Q1 wins are mainly wins over great teams or road wins over good teams. Q2 wins are mainly wins that you're supposed to get (home wins over good teams or road wins over fairly average teams).

Are y'all not capable of beating great teams or beating good teams away from Carmichael?

There's no defined criteria for the at large teams and that's why teams that make the tournament have different bodies of work/resumes. You don't believe that teams that aren't Virginia Tech that don't have Q1 wins shouldn't be in NCAAT. I should say coached by Megan Duffy because you didn't ride for VT this hard when Kenny Brooks was the coach.

ACC as a whole is mediocre conference in relative to what used to bring the past Since you seem to be stalking my posts on different boards, you should know that I'm on record as saying that before the season even began.

 

[JellyBean]

I don't see USC making it into the Main tournament this year. 8 games left, 4 winnable games and 4 maybe games. I am sure they will get invites to the tournaments.

 

[visitingcock]

I don't see USC making it into the Main tournament this year. 8 games left, 4 winnable games and 4 maybe games. I am sure they will get invites to the tournaments.

Disagree. Kennedy Smith is back from injury. They are presently ranked 20th in the NET. They have very winnable games left against Rutgers, Penn State, northwestern and Indiana as well as tougher ILLINOIS and Wisconsin. Ohio State and their cross town bus trip rival will be very tough.

They may have the toughest schedule in the country! foresee them being one of the BIG’s ten or eleven bids. 12?

 

[cancontent]

I don't see USC making it into the Main tournament this year. 8 games left, 4 winnable games and 4 maybe games. I am sure they will get invites to the tournaments.

Disagree. Kennedy Smith is back from injury. They are presently ranked 20th in the NET. They have very winnable games left against Rutgers, Penn State, northwestern and Indiana as well as tougher ILLINOIS and Wisconsin. Ohio State and their cross town bus trip rival will be very tough.

They may have the toughest schedule in the country! foresee them being one of the BIG’s ten or eleven bids. 12?

Not to mention, they have several wins over ranked teams that help bolster their case.