Bracketology - Week 18 (merged)

[Bone Dog]

Today's update from CC:

Minnesota has been in the field nearly all season. Now the Gophers' spot is slipping away. After losing by 14 in the first game of the Big Ten tournament to Washington, another bubble team, Minnesota is now the last team in the field. The Gophers' NET ranking has stayed solidly in the 30s for the last two months, but five losses in the last six games might be too much to overcome. The lack of another bubble team seizing the day is the only thing keeping the Gophers in the field. If another bubble team gets a significant win, or if a bid stealer emerges in the Atlantic 10 or Summit, Minnesota will miss its sixth straight NCAA tournament. Elsewhere, Stanford's loss Wednesday likely means the Cardinal's streak of playing in 36 consecutive NCAA tournaments will come to an end. And Tennessee won in the SEC tournament to keep its hopes of hosting alive.​

No change to the top 16 from March 4.

Big Ten - 13, SEC - 10, ACC - 8, Big 12 - 7, Ivy - 3, Big East - 2

View attachment 107492

I feel particularly bad about Mara Braun's injury. She seems to be as ill-starred when it comes to injury as her friend Paige. This looks like a huge loss for the team both in talent and in heart. Now the burden is almost entirely on Amaya Battle to run the offense.

 

[Zonepress]

I personally don’t want to be in South Carolinas bracket.

I agree completely. Very hard to go out and be a team at you embarrassed
On a neutral floor to me, it’s a pick up game
It doesn’t seem to matter whether you’re a number one or two seed, unless you’re the number overall one seed
There are seven teams that have said themselves above the rest
And I’m being kind saying that about LSU
You’re going to have to be a very good team in the elite eight
I it’s all about matchups, and I think the matchup would be better with either Texas or UCLA

 

[Bone Dog]

The question is whether it will be "chalk" as the say. There's a lot of talk about parity in the top-10 and a big gap after the first 7 or 8. Do people understand this to mean they expect a chalk bracket until the Sweet 16? I'm looking at Charlie's latest bracket with the following questions.

• Will those top 7 all make it into the Elite 8?
• Could Texas lose to Creighton in the Second Round?
• Or could SC lose to MD in the third round?
• Or ND lose to Michigan?
• Or UCLA lose to Alabama in the third round?
• Could USC lose to Vandy in the second round?
• Could TCU lose to OK St?
• Could UConn lose to Iowa or Duke?

These would all be significant upsets, but are they impossible given the roller coast of emotions heading into the tournament?

 

[BRS24]

Today's update from CC. I'm guessing that HerHoopStats will wait until Sunday/Monday to get the conference tourney results.
No changes to top 16 other than Bama and Ole Miss swapping their 4 spots in the 1 & 3 bracket.

The mining and reassessing of data never stops. After losing Wednesday, Minnesota dropped to the last team in the field. Upon further review, the Gophers are out of the projection, even though no other bubble teams stepped forward. Virginia Tech, even after a loss Thursday, is now the last team in the field. Why do the Hokies have the edge? Each team has advantages over the other in different areas, although none of the numbers are pretty. Minnesota has lost five of its past six games. Virginia Tech has dropped four of six. The Hokies' 1-7 record in Quad 1 games is just better than Minnesota's 0-6, but the Gophers have a better NET rating (38 to 46). The biggest problem with Virginia Tech's candidacy is four losses (including two at home) against teams not in NCAA tournament consideration (Virginia, Syracuse, Stanford and Boston College); the Gophers have no such losses. But the Hokies' 3-7 record against tournament teams (Minnesota is 2-11) ultimately puts them in the field. Nothing illustrates the weakness of this season's bubble than this battle for the final spot.​

Big Ten - 12, SEC - 10, ACC - 9, Big 12 - 7, Ivy - 3, Big East - 2. Still not seeing 12 teams from the B10, but what do I know.

 

[BRS24]

And here is The Athletic's update:

 

[Jim]

Interesting item in this morning's update from Creme is that Vanderbilt has moved up to a 7 seed and he has them as a potential 2nd round opponent for UConn. Who here wouldn't love to see a Shea vs Geno matchup?

 

[Vowelguy]

Interesting item in this morning's update from Creme is that Vanderbilt has moved up to a 7 seed and he has them as a potential 2nd round opponent for UConn. Who here wouldn't love to see a Shea vs Geno matchup?

Me.
NO desire to see Vandy.

Any team with a star like Blakes is dangerous becsuse if she goes off one night, there might be no way to stop her. High variance teams make me nervous.

 

[Stagnant]

Why would a UConn fan want that matchup? The stakes are too high. And the desired outcome sends Ralph home. I would rather see vandy thrive in a far away regional.

If we play them in the national championship game. Then great. No complaints with that.

 

[oldude]

Me.
NO desire to see Vandy.

Any team with a star like Blakes is dangerous becsuse if she goes off one night, there might be no way to stop her. High variance teams make me nervous.

There are stars all over WBB and any team in the tournament can’t possibly avoid all of them. Last season, during the 2nd round, a severely shorthanded UConn team faced Syracuse and their star player Dyaisha Fair. The Huskies largely contained Fair, holding her to 6-22 shooting, winning the game by 8.

While Blake is a very talented player, UConn’s active and talented group of guards would undoubtedly pressure her relentlessly throughout the game at both ends of the court. I’m not worried.

 

[HuskyNan]

Me.
NO desire to see Vandy.

Any team with a star like Blakes is dangerous becsuse if she goes off one night, there might be no way to stop her. High variance teams make me nervous.

I think you just described the Huskies

 

[Plebe]

Why would a UConn fan want that matchup? The stakes are too high. And the desired outcome sends Ralph home. I would rather see vandy thrive in a far away regional.

If we play them in the national championship game. Then great. No complaints with that.

Exactly. I want Vandy to make a run to the second weekend and further if they can. If they're put with UConn that could only happen at our expense.

 

[Vowelguy]

There are stars all over WBB and any team in the tournament can’t possibly avoid all of them.

How many of those teams have a player who has scored 50 points twice? 40? 30?

 

[Centerstream]

Personally I think any team that has a player that has scored over 15 points in the first quarter multiple times has a chance for that player to score over 50 points if she plays over 35 minutes in a game. Circumstances are different for every player and every game.

 

[oldude]

How many of those teams have a player who has scored 50 points twice? 40? 30?

Blake scored 50+ points against 2 unranked teams. I am far more concerned about a team with balanced scoring that can beat you in a bunch of ways rather than losing to a team with one big time scorer, who I am absolutely confident that UConn would control.

Where does this fear of other teams and players come from? We are FREAKIN UConn fans! Opposing teams fear the Huskies, not the other way around.

By the way, Vandy got whipped by SC today by 21 points. Blake was 5-15 from the floor.

 

[visitingcock]

Blake scored 50+ points against 2 unranked teams. I am far more concerned about a team with balanced scoring that can beat you in a bunch of ways rather than losing to a team with one big time scorer, who I am absolutely confident that UConn would control.

Where does this fear of other teams and players come from? We are FREAKIN UConn fans! Opposing teams fear the Huskies, not the other way around.

By the way, Vandy got whipped by SC today by 21 points. Blake was 5-15 from the floor.

They had closed a 25 point gap to six with four minutes to go in the game

 

[HuskyNan]

How many of those teams have a player who has scored 50 points twice? 40? 30?

I am a Mikayla Blakes fan so I mean no offense when I ask if you think Paige or Azzi or Sarah might be able to put up 30, 40, or 50 points if they wanted to. Paige has 14 games with 20+ points, Sarah has 10, Azzi, 4, and Ash 1. All of the above plus Kaitlyn and Aubrey have had many games with 15+ points so no one has needed to score the majority of points except maybe Azzi vs South Carolina.

Blakes is only a freshman. What a talent. She’ll be amazing in a year or two.

 

[Vowelguy]

I am a Mikayla Blakes fan so I mean no offense when I ask if you think Paige or Azzi or Sarah might be able to put up 30, 40, or 50 points if they wanted to. Paige has 14 games with 20+ points, Sarah has 10, Azzi, 4, and Ash 1. All of the above plus Kaitlyn and Aubrey have had many games with 15+ points so no one has needed to score the majority of points except maybe Azzi vs South Carolina.

Blakes is only a freshman. What a talent. She’ll be amazing in a year or two.

You misunderstand my statement.

Did I ever say I thought UConn would lose?

It’s a stats thing. Higher variance teams can have a higher probability of pulling off an upset.

 

[oldude]

They had closed a 25 point gap to six with four minutes to go in the game

Yea, I saw that. The Gamecocks got a little complacent. But then they put their foot on the gas pedal again and it was game over. I don’t know about you, but I never felt that the game was in doubt.

 

[BRS24]

As of 5 pm today, the #4 seeds Alabama and Kansas State have lost. The next 48 hrs will be very interesting wrt what happens with the 16 teams hosting.

 

[visitingcock]

As of 5 pm today, the #4 seeds Alabama and Kansas State have lost. The next 48 hrs will be very interesting wrt what happens with the 16 teams hosting.

K-State: what might have been.

Prayers for Ayoka to get healthy over the next year and get a shot at the W in 2026

 

[Vowelguy]

12 teams are hosting locks
USC, UCLA / Tex, SC, LSU, Ky, Okla / UConn / TCU / ND, NCSt, UNC

Duke is 99.9% but a win today would put them at 100%
OleMiss is likely

that leaves 2 spots for
Bama, Tenn
KSt, WV, Bay
OhSt

 

[visitingcock]

12 teams are hosting locks
USC, UCLA / Tex, SC, LSU, Ky, Okla / UConn / TCU / ND, NCSt, UNC

Duke is 99.9% but a win today would put them at 100%
OleMiss is likely

that leaves 2 spots for
Bama, Tenn
KSt, WV, Bay
OhSt

I would not give the last two spots to sec teams. 5 is enough. I would give one to WVU or Baylor and the other to tOSU.

 

[packwrap]

12 teams are hosting locks
USC, UCLA / Tex, SC, LSU, Ky, Okla / UConn / TCU / ND, NCSt, UNC

Duke is 99.9% but a win today would put them at 100%
OleMiss is likely

that leaves 2 spots for
Bama, Tenn
KSt, WV, Bay
OhSt

This is pretty good!

So far only WVU and OK have stepped up!

Bama, Tenn, KSt, Miss already out of their tourneys!

Baylor playing now...tOSU vs pesky Iowa later.

 

[Dugway]

So, North Carolina really beat Florida State? I am reading that right?

Looks like Maryland got beat up bad by, wow, Michigan? Pretty sure the turtles were not supposed to lose by 30 there!

And in our own tournament, Xavier beat DePaul? You’re kidding right?

Dang, I am sure glad I don’t gamble cuz I would be losing my shirt!

 

[BRS24]

Why yes, there was a 12:15 am update today from CC;

Finally, a team seized the day. For much of the past two days, it didn't appear any of the teams on the No. 4 seed line or just outside of it wanted to host first- and second-round NCAA tournament games. Then Ohio State survived a Big Ten quarterfinal late Friday to move into the top 16 once again. That came after Tennessee (eliminated in the second round of the SEC tournament), Alabama (SEC tournament second round), Kansas State (Big 12 quarterfinal) and Maryland (Big Ten quarterfinal) all lost. The Wildcats are now clinging to the final spot in the top 16. The rest are no longer in contention to host. The Buckeyes were in each of the committee's first two reveals, but an overtime loss to Maryland in the regular-season finale knocked them out. Now they are back thanks to a pair of late Cotie McMahon free throws and a 6-4 record in Quad 1 games. Elsewhere in Champ Week, Tennessee Tech has clinched the OVC bid, and UCLA and South Carolina are one win away from securing No. 1 seeds.​

Ohio State replaces Alabama at the 4 seed in 1st region.

Remain the same - Big Ten - 12, SEC - 10, ACC - 9, Big 12 - 7, Ivy - 3, Big East - 2

Alabama, Maryland, Tennessee, and Baylor at the 5 seeds.

Bubble teams also remain the same from yesterday.