Bracketology - Week 17

[BRS24]

Hey hey hoop fans, here's the update from CC today. UConn stays #2 seed in 3rd region. SC and ND swap regions.

Head-to-head matchups is one of 11 criteria the NCAA tournament committee uses to select and seed the field of 68. As we approach Thursday's second top-16 reveal and Selection Sunday in March, expect it be the most discussed. So many of the top teams have played each other, and the results indicate the regionals and Final Four could be an unpredictable and wild ride. Because of the variability in these games, head-to-head can't be applied exclusively. The question is how much the committee will factor it into its decision-making, which will go a long way to determining the No. 1 seeds and their order. This is where Notre Dame would seemingly have an advantage. The Irish are 3-0 (USC, Texas, UConn) against teams in the mix for a top seed, the best record among the group. In the committee's first reveal on Feb. 16, Notre Dame was behind the Longhorns, perhaps a sign that works against the Irish now that they have a third loss. With those victories over the Trojans and Huskies, Notre Dame should remain a No. 1 seed. Thursday's reveal will tell us if the committee agrees.​

Big Ten - 13, SEC - 10, ACC - 9, Big 12 - 7, Ivy - 2, Big East - 2

 

[Vowelguy]

Verrrry close to my prediction from Sunday, before the KSt loss.

Committee Rankings - how they've fared

Here's the committee top 16 (+ others) and how they've fared since the release, plus what they've got left. TCU is current leader for last 2 seed, but NCSt/Duke/UNC all have big games that could vault them up. OhioSt in danger of falling out.

the-boneyard.com

 

[BRS24]

Next NCAA top 16 committee reveal is at 6:30 p.m. ET Thursday, Feb. 27 on ESPN2 ...

 

[Blueberries]

Hey hey hoop fans, here's the update from CC today. UConn stays #3 seed in 3rd region. SC and ND swap regions.

Head-to-head matchups is one of 11 criteria the NCAA tournament committee uses to select and seed the field of 68. As we approach Thursday's second top-16 reveal and Selection Sunday in March, expect it be the most discussed. So many of the top teams have played each other, and the results indicate the regionals and Final Four could be an unpredictable and wild ride. Because of the variability in these games, head-to-head can't be applied exclusively. The question is how much the committee will factor it into its decision-making, which will go a long way to determining the No. 1 seeds and their order. This is where Notre Dame would seemingly have an advantage. The Irish are 3-0 (USC, Texas, UConn) against teams in the mix for a top seed, the best record among the group. In the committee's first reveal on Feb. 16, Notre Dame was behind the Longhorns, perhaps a sign that works against the Irish now that they have a third loss. With those victories over the Trojans and Huskies, Notre Dame should remain a No. 1 seed. Thursday's reveal will tell us if the committee agrees.​

View attachment 107270

Big Ten - 13, SEC - 10, ACC - 9, Big 12 - 7, Ivy - 2, Big East - 2

View attachment 107269

You mean #2 seed?

 

[BRS24]

You mean #2 seed?

Yes, yes.

 

[robert]

You mean #2 seed?

I don’t care if we are #2 seed , all I want is to be in Texas or Southern California Cal bracket , South Carolina can be a tough opponent during tournament so with the pesky Irish…

 

[Rowdy831]

I would be shocked if SC is above UConn in the exact same region tonight. If UConn beat a team by 30 at their place and they still put that team above them then why play the games? Now I do think SC could play their way back into a 1 seed but it won't be at UConn expense unless the selection committee is tainted.

 

[HuskyNan]

I would be shocked if SC is above UConn in the exact same region tonight. If UConn beat a team by 30 at their place and they still put that team above them then why play the games? Now I do think SC could play their way back into a 1 seed but it won't be at UConn expense unless the selection committee is tainted.

One game doesn’t determine seeding - it’s based on the entire season. South Carolina has a much stronger overall resume than UConn, by which I mean more quality wins

 

[Plebe]

I would be shocked if SC is above UConn in the exact same region tonight. If UConn beat a team by 30 at their place and they still put that team above them then why play the games? Now I do think SC could play their way back into a 1 seed but it won't be at UConn expense unless the selection committee is tainted.

If the entire season consisted of only that one game, you would be right.

 

[Hayven]

I hope we somehow end up with Texas. I prefer that match up, than another one with SC.

 

[BRS24]

While awaiting CC's update later this morning, here's the committee reveal from last night:

 

[BRS24]

Schindler's latest projection from The Athletic did not change any of the top 16 teams in either region or seeding.

Big Ten - 13, SEC - 10, ACC - 9, Big 12 - 7, Big East - 2, Ivy - 2

 

[BRS24]

Here's is CC's latest. Alabama back in the top 16, Ohio State out.

Thursday was the second and final top-16 reveal from the NCAA tournament selection committee. Just like with the first reveal, this one's relevance didn't last long. Every seed line was impacted, and 12 hours later the top 16 looks quite different. The most noteworthy news from Thursday evening was South Carolina's dip to a No. 2 seed. After Notre Dame's shocking home loss to Florida State, the Gamecocks are back on the 1-line as the Irish fell to a No. 2. Tennessee had moved up to a No. 3 for the committee, then lost by 24 at Kentucky: Back to a No. 4 for the Lady Vols, while the Wildcats are again a 3-seed. Alabama's stunner over LSU pushed the Crimson Tide from top-16 outsiders into the club. Their ascension now gives the SEC seven teams in the top 16 heading into the final weekend of the league's regular season.​

​

Changes in seeds and regions are noted from his last post on 2/21, not a reflection of the committee's reveal last night.

Big Ten - 13, SEC - 10, ACC - 8, Big 12 - 7, Ivy - 3, Big East - 2

Some shifts in the bubble groups:

 

[BRS24]

Today's update from Megan at herhoopstats. I like her casual pace, as 2x or even 1x per week updates get lost in the sea of games. Do we like this bracket for the Huskies? Assuming the seeds hold, a regional final of USC/Tenn would be very interesting based on TN's frenetic defense.

#1 seed order - Texas, USC, UCLA, S Carolina
#2 seed order - NCSU, LSU, UConn, NC

Big Ten - 13, SEC - 10, ACC - 9, Big 12 - 7, Big East - 2, Ivy - 2

 

[BRS24]

And some comments from Charlie on twitter, just posting the text of the four:

1 - This is a huge win for USC, but Texas is the No. 1 overall team (USC No. 2). The Longhorns still win out on every big measurable -- overall record, Quad 1 wins, NET ranking, SOS, better losses.​

​

2 - Here's your breakdown: No. 1's Texas, USC, UCLA, South Carolina. No. 2's UConn, ND, LSU, NC State. Any of the top-6 could still be No. 1 seeds. UConn's climb is tougher though with no real opportunity to build the resume. They will need a couple of teams to hurt their own.​

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3 - If South Carolina loses tomorrow to Kentucky, UConn becomes the 4th No. 1. If South Carolina wins out and beats Texas for the SECT title, UConn's next best hope is UCLA stumbling before the Big Ten T final. While not locks, Texas and USC have high odds to end up No. 1 seeds.​

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4 - LSU is a darkhorse, but that would only come with an SECT title that includes a semifinal and final win over Texas and South Carolina in some order. Needless to say the outcomes in the ACC, SEC and Big Ten T's will be huge in determining the final order of the top 6-7 teams.​

 

[BRS24]

And here's something I picked up on yesterday, a comment online about no conference deserving 13 bids, so let's take a look at the Big Ten standings as of today. Minnesota is the 13th team in conference standings, however the 7th overall. MN lost to MSU by 15 pts yesterday. I struggle with teams being in the NCAAT that are below .500 in conference, although a good run in the conf tourney always helps, especially if there are 1-2 upsets that no one saw coming. Washington is 12th and 13th respectively, with mediocre records in both as well. I get the argument that in "good" leagues, there's a grouping of teams that are all beating up on each other, and perhaps the reason for the 17-19 overall win total, however I'm a homer for some of the smaller leagues getting more teams in. The next few weeks will be very interesting.

 

[Plebe]

And here's something I picked up on yesterday, a comment online about no conference deserving 13 bids, so let's take a look at the Big Ten standings as of today. Minnesota is the 13th team in conference standings, however the 7th overall. MN lost to MSU by 15 pts yesterday. I struggle with teams being in the NCAAT that are below .500 in conference, although a good run in the conf tourney always helps, especially if there are 1-2 upsets that no one saw coming. Washington is 12th and 13th respectively, with mediocre records in both as well. I get the argument that in "good" leagues, there's a grouping of teams that are all beating up on each other, and perhaps the reason for the 17-19 overall win total, however I'm a homer for some of the smaller leagues getting more teams in. The next few weeks will be very interesting.

View attachment 107380

A few historical trends are setting up this prospect of a dozen or more teams from one conference getting in:

• First and most obviously, the trend toward megasized power conferences.
• Expansion of the NCAA field from 64 to 68, which increased the number of at-large bids from 32 to 36 ... and this year, with no Pac-12, there are 37 at-large bids.
• The downward trend in mid-major programs. Who doesn't love rooting for the little guy, but the landscape is bleak. Onetime stalwart programs such as Gonzaga, South Dakota, Drake etc. are just not good enough this year, and fewer at-large-worthy midmajors means more bids for teams from power conferences. It's a zero sum game.

I think the only midmajors projected as a locks for at-large bids (should they not get the AQ) would be Richmond and South Dakota State. There are a handful of others on the bubble, but their resumes are flimsy, to put it kindly. The fact that St. Joseph's is considered a bubble team is revealing. They were close but no cigar in an OT loss at Utah, but they're 1-1 vs Quad 2, 2-2 vs Quad 3, and they have three Quad 4 losses.

 

[bballnut90]

Another wild day in basketball:

#7 LSU loses at home to unranked Ole MIss. LSU is without Flaujae Johnson until the NCAA tournament, I have no idea if the committee will punish LSU for this loss or forgive them considering Flaujae likely would've made a big difference today. I think they're still on the 2 line but not as safe as they were.

#8 North Carolina had a really bad loss at home to 16-14 Virginia. They were without Davis/Ustby too, so I wonder if the committee will take that into consideration. That said, I think this likely kills any chance of them being a #2 seed. It pushes them a borderline 3/4 seed IMO.

#9 TCU with a big win over #17 Baylor. They are Big 12 Champs and have a strong resume that could be 2 seed worthy.

#11 Tennessee with an absolutely horrible loss to 12-18 Georgia at home. A week ago the same Georgia team lost 57-26 vs. Texas. This might be the worst loss of any team in contention for a top 4 seed. I think they drop to a #5 seed now.

#12 Ohio State loses to #19 Maryland. They were already a 5 seed in Charlie Creme's projections, I think they're solidly a 5 seed now. A strong B10 tourney could push them into consideration for a 4.

#13 Oklahoma picked up a big win over #20 Alabama. They're safely on the 4 line for now. They've beaten every team they're ahead of (excluding Mississippi State) and lost to every team that's ahead of them.

#14 Kansas State gets blown out by Iowa State. This helps Iowa State's tournament chances immensely, but I think it also pushes Kansas State off the 4 line, at least borderline 4/5.

#16 Duke picks up a great road win over #24 Florida State. They look safely in position for a #3 seed after being UNC earlier this week too.

 

[bballnut90]

My own unscientific predictions for top 16 seeds:

Regional 1:
#1 Texas
#8 NC State
#9 TCU
#16 Maryland

Regional 2:
#2 USC
#7 LSU
#11 Duke
#14 Ole Miss

Regional 3:
#3 UCLA
#6 UCONN
#12 UNC
#13 Oklahoma

Regional 4:
#4 South Carolina
#5 Notre Dame
#10 Kentucky
#15 Kansas State

 

[HuskyNan]

My own unscientific predictions for top 16 seeds:

Regional 1:
#1 Texas
#8 NC State
#9 TCU
#16 Maryland

Regional 2:
#2 USC
#7 LSU
#11 Duke
#14 Ole Miss

Regional 3:
#3 UCLA
#6 UCONN
#12 UNC
#13 Oklahoma

Regional 4:
#4 South Carolina
#5 Notre Dame
#10 Kentucky
#15 Kansas State

As of today or after the conference tournaments? The top 3 leagues could have some exciting tourneys.

 

[BRS24]

As of today or after the conference tournaments? The top 3 leagues could have some exciting tourneys.

This is one of those years where I would not bet on the favorites in the ACC, Big10, Big12, and SEC. It's gonna be wild, and I think it will carry over to the NCAAT.

 

[Bald Husky]

There is no way that the committee will give UConn a #1 seed. There are 5 teams that have been going back and forth at #1, but we are unfortunately stuck at #2. If we had beaten Tennessee we would be in the mix, so let's just look for a region that we can win at #2. The only chance to reach #1 is to have one of the 5 lose early in their tournament. Any of the 5 will be a huge challenge, and maybe playing SC would be the toughest as I'm sure they will be ready for us. Still, I know we can beat anyone, but one thing is for sure, this will be the best tournament in NCAA history.

 

[HuskyNan]

There is no way that the committee will give UConn a #1 seed. There are 5 teams that have been going back and forth at #1, but we are unfortunately stuck at #2. If we had beaten Tennessee we would be in the mix, so let's just look for a region that we can win at #2. The only chance to reach #1 is to have one of the 5 lose early in their tournament. Any of the 5 will be a huge challenge, and maybe playing SC would be the toughest as I'm sure they will be ready for us. Still, I know we can beat anyone, but one thing is for sure, this will be the best tournament in NCAA history.

If a couple teams above the Huskies stumbled early, or badly, in their tournament UConn could potentially move up but I don’t see the advantage. What’s the big deal about being a low 1 seed vs a high 2 seed?

 

[ConnMotors]

So true Nan; personally I at this point I would want ti be the second or third #2 Seed. This way you avoid the top #1 Seed until the finals.

 

[David54]

I think it’s more an issue of match ups now than one of seeding. Now maybe the top 2 #1 seeds have an advantage if the S curve is followed 1 thru 8.
Here’s a fun possibility UCLA ends the season with 4 loses all to the same team.