Bracketology - Week 16

[Rowdy831]

It will be very difficult for the selection committee to move South Carolina above UConn if they both win out. It would be one thing if UConn beat South Carolina but they dismantled them at South Carolina. In those rooms that matters especially since it was within the last couple weeks of the season and both teams were at full strength.

What I think will happen is SC will beat Texas badly in the tournament and both UConn and South Carolina will be in the top 4 unless LSU wins the SEC.

 

[oldude]

It will be very difficult for the selection committee to move South Carolina above UConn if they both win out. It would be one thing if UConn beat South Carolina but they dismantled them at South Carolina. In those rooms that matters especially since it was within the last couple weeks of the season and both teams were at full strength.

What I think will happen is SC will beat Texas badly in the tournament and both UConn and South Carolina will be in the top 4 unless LSU wins the SEC.

I don’t know. SC’s superior depth and defensive pressure masked a number of shortcomings this season, all of which were exposed by UConn. They don’t have a strong post presence and can no longer dominate the paint. While they have a couple great athletes, their overall athleticism is suspect. Finally, they are not a particularly good outside shooting team.

TX, LSU, TN and perhaps some other SEC teams are all capable of knocking off SC in the conference tournament. We shall see.

 

[maxw]

Folks here ought to know that not all Q-1 wins/losses are alike. The Q1,2,3,4 records published are for executive consumption and a lot more math goes into determining who's ahead of who.

A win/loss against a top-5 team in a quad is weighted differently compared to that against a team in the middle or bottom of the quad. Similarly, a win/loss against a team at the bottom of a quad isn't that far from that against a top team in the next quad.

Not only that, there could be a big difference in the weights of some teams ranked a few spots apart, especially at the top given how strong the top-5 or 6 teams have been this year. What I mean is that there is a big drop off after the top-6, and losses against this group won't hurt you as much. There is a reason UConn is #1 in the NET ratings.

It looks to me that UConn will get a 1 seed from what I see happening to the other competitors in their conference tournaments. But a 3rd or 4th 1 seed won't do much good for UConn as they will have to beat either the 5th or 6th (South Car, USC, Texas?) in elite eight if everything holds. In this case, getting the 3rd or 4th 1 seed is just as good being 5th or 6th in the eyes of the committee.

Unless something dramatic happens, UConn won't get one of the top 2 1 seeds.

But I have confidence in our team and Geno that we'll go far.

 

[Plebe]

It will be very difficult for the selection committee to move South Carolina above UConn if they both win out. It would be one thing if UConn beat South Carolina but they dismantled them at South Carolina. In those rooms that matters especially since it was within the last couple weeks of the season and both teams were at full strength.

It won't be difficult at all since the overall resume is far more important than a single head-to-head result. This has been stated ad nauseam by the committees over the years in fielding questions along the lines of “how did Team X get seeded ahead of Team Y despite having lost to them”.

And you know what other result occurred in the latter part of the season, which the committee won't disregard either? UConn lost to Tennessee, a team that SC (and quite a few others) managed to beat. It's a shame we lost that game because otherwise we'd have an extremely strong case for a #1 seed.

 

[Stagnant]

I saw the espn bracketology this morning. I don’t like that region at all. Duke is dangerous as a 3 seed imo. The other 3 seeds are North Carolina, TCU, and Kentucky. I feel way better about UConn’s chances against those three. And I don’t want to be paired with South Carolina. We got our win against them this year. I don’t want them to get a revenge opportunity.

 

[oldude]

One of the things that we all know, but don’t always acknowledge, is that a committee of 12 human beings will ultimately seed 68 teams for the BIG Dance. The NCAA could very easily have created a computer algorithm with all the criteria deemed relevant, weighting each of those criteria however they prioritized and then simply let the computer fill in the 68 team bracket.

But the NCAA doesn’t do that. They bring a committee of individuals together, all with their own personal biases. They provide that committee with an “unweighted” list of sometimes conflicting criteria such as Body of Work, NET, late season results, impact of injuries, etc. While the committee ultimately works to a consensus, there are certainly differences of opinion. It is not all cut and dry, which is exactly why we’ve seen some head scratching seeding decisions in past seasons.

WBB seedings have been far more easily determined in prior years, particularly at the top of the brackets. But this year is different. IMO there are no less than 7 teams with a very real opportunity to win the national championship, and I would go even farther to suggest that there are up to 11 teams with a chance to win it all.

Like all of us, I am anxious to see the final seedings by the committee. I will not be surprised if there are several surprises.

 

[Cornell Lt]

I saw the espn bracketology this morning. I don’t like that region at all. Duke is dangerous as a 3 seed imo. The other 3 seeds are North Carolina, TCU, and Kentucky. I feel way better about UConn’s chances against those three. And I don’t want to be paired with South Carolina. We got our win against them this year. I don’t want them to get a revenge opportunity.

What exactly makes Duke dangerous to you (not being sarcastic) ? I'd gladly take a matchup against Duke.

 

[PAHuskeyFan]

TX sure did NOT look like a 1# Team or 1 seed in their most recent game vs Georgia this week. They won, but scored only 20 points...in the entire first half. I saw part of the game, but switched off because it was hard to watch. Just an observation.

 

[oldude]

TX sure did NOT look like a 1# Team or 1 seed in their most recent game vs Georgia this week. They won, but scored only 20 points...in the entire first half. I saw part of the game, but switched off because it was hard to watch. Just an observation.

TX wins ugly. But they win. Whether they can continue to win ugly to a national championship is debatable. We shall see.

 

[Stagnant]

What exactly makes Duke dangerous to you (not being sarcastic) ? I'd gladly take a matchup against Duke.

They can really defend and will force us to play an ugly game. Even last year, if Duke had had a pulse offensively; they could have won that sweet 16 game. It it similar to ucf a couple of years ago. A really physical team that is going to bump and foul a lot. And maybe refs will get sick of blowing the whistle?