Bracketology - Week 16 | The Boneyard

Bracketology - Week 16

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BRS24

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Gee thanks Charlie. Figured I was done for the day with the other spreadsheets, lol. Note that the markings showing team movement is from CC's bracket on Friday. I kept the official committee one plain. Kentucky in and Ole Miss out of the top 16. Please forgive any formatting issues as I'm herding 3 grandkids ... :D

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Big Ten - 13, SEC - 10, ACC - 9, Big 12 - 7, Ivy - 2, Big East - 2

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Surprise, surprise. CC updated the bracket from yesterday. Kentucky and Kansas St swap 3 and 4 spots. No changes to the Bubble teams and conference #s from the post above.

1739908909992.jpeg
 
Currently UConn is #1 in the NET rankings with South Carolina, Texas and ND numbers 2, 3 and 4. If UConn continues to stay in the top 4 I don't see how they wouldn't be one of the top seeds.
 
I get most of them, especially USC as 8th on the S curve. Their win over Washington was not inspiring even though the win over UCLA was gritty. But LSU as the 5 on the curve looks a bit too generous to me. Same with TCU at the 6 spot. Both of them should be bumped down behind USC and UConn. Of course, this is entirely based on my eyeballs, not any rigorous analysis.
 
Bone Dog said:
I get most of them, especially USC as 8th on the S curve. Their win over Washington was not inspiring even though the win over UCLA was gritty. But LSU as the 5 on the curve looks a bit too generous to me. Same with TCU at the 6 spot. Both of them should be bumped down behind USC and UConn. Of course, this is entirely based on my eyeballs, not any rigorous analysis.
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I think Creme has the five to eight seeds as USC, UConn, LSU, and TCU. So LSU is seventh. He swapped LSU and TCU to keep from having two SEC teams as the #1 and #2 in the same bracket in accordance with NCAA seeding guidelines.
 
jake0414 said:
I think Creme has the five to eight seeds as USC, UConn, LSU, and TCU. So LSU is seventh. He swapped LSU and TCU to keep from having two SEC teams as the #1 and #2 in the same bracket in accordance with NCAA seeding guidelines.
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Am I misreading the chart? Your way makes more sense.
 
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MSGRET said:
Currently UConn is #1 in the NET rankings with South Carolina, Texas and ND numbers 2, 3 and 4. If UConn continues to stay in the top 4 I don't see how they wouldn't be one of the top seeds.
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NET doesn't determine the seeding. It's not designed to do so, and it doesn't function that way in practice.
 
Bone Dog said:
I get most of them, especially USC as 8th on the S curve. Their win over Washington was not inspiring even though the win over UCLA was gritty. But LSU as the 5 on the curve looks a bit too generous to me. Same with TCU at the 6 spot. Both of them should be bumped down behind USC and UConn. Of course, this is entirely based on my eyeballs, not any rigorous analysis.
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How are you interpreting USC as 8th on the S curve?

USC is projected as the 2 seed in South Carolina's regional, which is regional #4 (i.e. SoCar is the projected #4 overall seed). USC is currently projected at #5 overall, as indicated by @jake0410 above.
 
jake0414 said:
I think Creme has the five to eight seeds as USC, UConn, LSU, and TCU. So LSU is seventh. He swapped LSU and TCU to keep from having two SEC teams as the #1 and #2 in the same bracket in accordance with NCAA seeding guidelines.
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Exactly, this is also what committee did in reveal 1.0, that now seems already 10 years old.:eek: They actually communicated a 1-16 in order, and then showed how they were put in brackets to avoid conference overlap.
 
Plebe said:
How are you interpreting USC as 8th on the S curve?

USC is projected as the 2 seed in South Carolina's regional, which is regional #4 (i.e. SoCar is the projected #4 overall seed). USC is currently projected at #5 overall, as indicated by @jake0410 above.
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Already addressed above including acknowledging @jake0414’s correction.
 
A few updates for today, well, actually yesterday, but there was some adulting to do ...

First, here's CC's update. Duke, UNC, and NCSU all swap 3 seed position.

The past two days are a perfect example of why there has been little movement in and out of the field. The list of teams with a legitimate claim to a spot was already shorter than typical; then, those just on the outside looking in (Saint Joseph's, Colorado, George Mason) lost. Which is why Virginia Tech can absorb a home loss to Stanford -- the Hokies' third setback in three games -- and remain a bubble team. And there hasn't been a team that has been playing better right now, or that has a better résumé or a solid recent win to take the spot Virginia Tech left vulnerable. So, the situation now leaves the door open for bid stealers that don't have a truly tournament-worthy case. Consider UNLV, Columbia, James Madison and Fairfield: In most years, these teams would have no chance of making the NCAA tournament without their conferences' automatic bids. This is not most years on the bubble.​

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Big Ten - 13, SEC - 10, ACC - 9, Big 12 - 7, Ivy - 2, Big East - 2

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Here's Schindler's update on The Athletic. Alabama is in and Ole Miss out of the top 16.

The last No. 1 seed​
​
Southern California snags the final spot on the No. 1 seed line after the chaos of last weekend.​
​
Given how much weight the selection committee put on the total resume, I toyed with South Carolina maintaining a spot on the top line. However, my sense is that its 29-point loss to UConn will likely drop it. The Gamecocks still have a tremendous tournament resume and could wind up with a No. 1 seed, with games against Vanderbilt, Ole Miss and Kentucky remaining to close SEC play.​
​
But such a thorough drubbing is a big hit to the dominance that the selection committee has valued for top-line teams.​
​
What about UConn?​
​
A No. 1 seed isn’t out of the question if the Huskies win out the Big East in dominant fashion (which I expect for the remainder of the regular season and the conference tournament), but they’ll need some luck with results in the SEC and Big Ten. With head-to-head losses against Notre Dame and USC, I envision that being a separator for the final spot at the moment, as the Trojans take hold.​

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Lastly, HerHoopStats update:

The committee gave its first look at the top-16 seeds on Sunday. Plenty has changed since then, particularly on the top two seed lines after an eventful week. We'll get another look at the top-16 on Thursday as the regular season comes to a close and March nears. UCLA, Texas, Notre Dame, South Carolina, USC and UConn are all still in the race for the No. 1 seeds. Elsewhere, Ole Miss and Baylor are sitting on the No. 5 seed line creeping towards the opportunity to host.​
​
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MSGRET said:
Currently UConn is #1 in the NET rankings with South Carolina, Texas and ND numbers 2, 3 and 4. If UConn continues to stay in the top 4 I don't see how they wouldn't be one of the top seeds.
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One thing that should help UConn’s case would be 2 wins over now ranked Creighton in the regular season and hopefully the final of the conference tournament. Creighton hopefully wins the rest of their games in the BE against everyone not named UConn.
 
oldude said:
One thing that should help UConn’s case would be 2 wins over now ranked Creighton in the regular season and hopefully the final of the conference tournament. Creighton hopefully wins the rest of their games in the BE against everyone not named UConn.
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My interpretation is you think a win over Creighton will help our claim for a #1 seed. IT WON'T. Let me bring the evidence as supplied by our fine poster @Vowelguy from the previous thread on the subject. NET is a tool as are Quad 1 records, which, in my opinion are two of the most useful tools. the fact is UConn is only 4-3 (soon to be 5-3) which pales in comparison to the other contenders for the #1 seed. How does our 5 wins match against 8, 9 or 10 wins? They don't. Yes, I know our 3 losses were to #4, #2 and #6 but that still pales in the win column. The fact that our pathetic conference can't field better teams, hurts our opportunities. Overall, I am not worried about the #1 or #2 seed as we have shown the capability to play with the elite team, which a week ago, I wasn't so sure of.

Basically, stop perseverating over this, focus on the team gaining consistent play with development from Jana and consistent scoring from Azzi.
From VowelGuy (BTW-thanks for this)
Quad 1 Record (undefeated against Q2-Q4 unless noted)

Texas 11-2 (NET #3)
SoCar 10-3 (NET #2)
UCLA 9-1 (NET #5)
USC 8-2 (NET #6)

ND 5-2 (NET #4)
LSU 5-2 (NET #10)
TCU 5-3 (NET #9)
UConn 4-3 (NET #1)
 
DefenseBB said:
My interpretation is you think a win over Creighton will help our claim for a #1 seed. IT WON'T. Let me bring the evidence as supplied by our fine poster @Vowelguy from the previous thread on the subject. NET is a tool as are Quad 1 records, which, in my opinion are two of the most useful tools. the fact is UConn is only 4-3 (soon to be 5-3) which pales in comparison to the other contenders for the #1 seed. How does our 5 wins match against 8, 9 or 10 wins? They don't.
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Also, to put an even finer point on this, our home game vs. Creighton would not be a Q1 per the current NET rankings, as the Q1 range for home games is 1-25 (Creighton is now #30). Unless Creighton can climb 5 spots by selection day, a neutral-court game in the BET fiinal is our only realistic chance of another Quad 1 game left on the schedule.
 
DefenseBB said:
My interpretation is you think a win over Creighton will help our claim for a #1 seed. IT WON'T. Let me bring the evidence as supplied by our fine poster @Vowelguy from the previous thread on the subject. NET is a tool as are Quad 1 records, which, in my opinion are two of the most useful tools. the fact is UConn is only 4-3 (soon to be 5-3) which pales in comparison to the other contenders for the #1 seed. How does our 5 wins match against 8, 9 or 10 wins? They don't. Yes, I know our 3 losses were to #4, #2 and #6 but that still pales in the win column. The fact that our pathetic conference can't field better teams, hurts our opportunities. Overall, I am not worried about the #1 or #2 seed as we have shown the capability to play with the elite team, which a week ago, I wasn't so sure of.

Basically, stop perseverating over this, focus on the team gaining consistent play with development from Jana and consistent scoring from Azzi.
From VowelGuy (BTW-thanks for this)
Quad 1 Record (undefeated against Q2-Q4 unless noted)

Texas 11-2 (NET #3)
SoCar 10-3 (NET #2)
UCLA 9-1 (NET #5)
USC 8-2 (NET #6)

ND 5-2 (NET #4)
LSU 5-2 (NET #10)
TCU 5-3 (NET #9)
UConn 4-3 (NET #1)
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I see you’re pretty fired up about this. So while you are figuring out the math, add in the fact that USC & UCLA still have at least 2 losses to come between them (head to head & conference tournament) and TX, LSU & SC also have at least 2 losses to come between them.

Will it matter in the final tournament seeding? Absolutely.

Will it matter for UConn? We’ll see.

Finally, this is the BY. All of us can focus on whatever interests each of us, and ignore whatever doesn’t.
 
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Plebe said:
Also, to put an even finer point on this, our home game vs. Creighton would not be a Q1 per the current NET rankings, as the Q1 range for home games is 1-25 (Creighton is now #30). Unless Creighton can climb 5 spots by selection day, a neutral-court game in the BET fiinal is our only realistic chance of another Quad 1 game left on the schedule.
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It’s an away game, which makes it Quad 1

www.ncaa.com

College basketball's NET rankings, explained

Here's everything you need to know about college basketball's NET ranking system.
www.ncaa.com www.ncaa.com

IMG_3646.jpeg
 
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HuskyNan said:
You right, it’s in CT. But Creighton is #30 NET, still quad 1

www.ncaa.com

DI Women's Basketball Rankings - NCAA Women's Basketball NET Rankings | NCAA.com

Get NCAA women's college basketball rankings from the Associated Press, USA Today/WBCA and NCAA committee.
www.ncaa.com www.ncaa.com
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I believe you're looking at the men's quad cutoffs.

The 2024-25 NET rank quadrant ranges for women's basketball were based on the expected winning percentage versus a given opponent rank (in NET) with respect to game location, across all games. The ranges will be classified as quadrant one (home 1-25, neutral 1-35 and away 1-45); quadrant two (home 26-55, neutral 36-65 and away 46-80); quadrant three (home 56-90, neutral 66-105 and away 81-130) and quadrant four (home 91-plus, neutral 106-plus and away 131-plus).​

www.ncaa.org

DI Women’s Basketball Committee OKs quadrant-based team sheets, complete seed list - NCAA.org

At its summer meeting this week in Austin, Texas, the NCAA Division I Women's Basketball Committee approved a move to quadrant-based team sheets in 2024-25 and to
www.ncaa.org www.ncaa.org
 
oldude said:
I see you’re pretty fired up about this. So while you are figuring out the math, add in the fact that USC & UCLA still have at least 2 losses to come between them (head to head & conference tournament) and TX, LSU & SC also have at least 2 losses to come between them.

Will it matter in the final tournament seeding? Absolutely.

Will it matter for UConn? We’ll see.

Finally, this is the BY. All of us can focus on whatever interests each of us, and ignore whatever doesn’t.
Expand ...
I am truly in awe of your denialism and fanacisn that no matter how many posters explain the logic and protocol you insist on potential that simply does not exist in this situation. Let’s follow your premise 10 wins UCLA will have even against 3 losses somehow still beats our 5-3 record…or SoCal with their 10 wins and only 4 losses (And a win over us) will also mean more than our 5-3 record (That includes a win over Creaighton in the BET as a Quad 1 win as the win at home will not be.

Under no circumstances can we leap past UCLA or SoCal. Maybe if Texas implodes against Georgia, Miss State or Florida but that means we would have leap over ND who also has a win over us.

Do you not see the logic?
 
DefenseBB said:
I am truly in awe of your denialism and fanacisn that no matter how many posters explain the logic and protocol you insist on potential that simply does not exist in this situation. Let’s follow your premise 10 wins UCLA will have even against 3 losses somehow still beats our 5-3 record…or SoCal with their 10 wins and only 4 losses (And a win over us) will also mean more than our 5-3 record (That includes a win over Creaighton in the BET as a Quad 1 win as the win at home will not be.

Under no circumstances can we leap past UCLA or SoCal. Maybe if Texas implodes against Georgia, Miss State or Florida but that means we would have leap over ND who also has a win over us.

Do you not see the logic?
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DBB,
Charlie Creme and others believe that UConn has a chance to make it to the #1 seed line, albeit an outside chance. I’m not willing to throw in the towel until all the games are played and the tournament bracket is announced.

While you certainly have the right to your opinion, I am not quite sure while you are so passionate about targeting my opinion for criticism. It’s my opinion. You don’t agree with it. I get it. End of discussion.
 
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It will be very difficult for the selection committee to move South Carolina above UConn if they both win out. It would be one thing if UConn beat South Carolina but they dismantled them at South Carolina. In those rooms that matters especially since it was within the last couple weeks of the season and both teams were at full strength.

What I think will happen is SC will beat Texas badly in the tournament and both UConn and South Carolina will be in the top 4 unless LSU wins the SEC.
 
Rowdy831 said:
It will be very difficult for the selection committee to move South Carolina above UConn if they both win out. It would be one thing if UConn beat South Carolina but they dismantled them at South Carolina. In those rooms that matters especially since it was within the last couple weeks of the season and both teams were at full strength.

What I think will happen is SC will beat Texas badly in the tournament and both UConn and South Carolina will be in the top 4 unless LSU wins the SEC.
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I don’t know. SC’s superior depth and defensive pressure masked a number of shortcomings this season, all of which were exposed by UConn. They don’t have a strong post presence and can no longer dominate the paint. While they have a couple great athletes, their overall athleticism is suspect. Finally, they are not a particularly good outside shooting team.

TX, LSU, TN and perhaps some other SEC teams are all capable of knocking off SC in the conference tournament. We shall see.
 
Folks here ought to know that not all Q-1 wins/losses are alike. The Q1,2,3,4 records published are for executive consumption and a lot more math goes into determining who's ahead of who.

A win/loss against a top-5 team in a quad is weighted differently compared to that against a team in the middle or bottom of the quad. Similarly, a win/loss against a team at the bottom of a quad isn't that far from that against a top team in the next quad.

Not only that, there could be a big difference in the weights of some teams ranked a few spots apart, especially at the top given how strong the top-5 or 6 teams have been this year. What I mean is that there is a big drop off after the top-6, and losses against this group won't hurt you as much. There is a reason UConn is #1 in the NET ratings.

It looks to me that UConn will get a 1 seed from what I see happening to the other competitors in their conference tournaments. But a 3rd or 4th 1 seed won't do much good for UConn as they will have to beat either the 5th or 6th (South Car, USC, Texas?) in elite eight if everything holds. In this case, getting the 3rd or 4th 1 seed is just as good being 5th or 6th in the eyes of the committee.

Unless something dramatic happens, UConn won't get one of the top 2 1 seeds.

But I have confidence in our team and Geno that we'll go far.
 
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Rowdy831 said:
It will be very difficult for the selection committee to move South Carolina above UConn if they both win out. It would be one thing if UConn beat South Carolina but they dismantled them at South Carolina. In those rooms that matters especially since it was within the last couple weeks of the season and both teams were at full strength.
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It won't be difficult at all since the overall resume is far more important than a single head-to-head result. This has been stated ad nauseam by the committees over the years in fielding questions along the lines of “how did Team X get seeded ahead of Team Y despite having lost to them”.

And you know what other result occurred in the latter part of the season, which the committee won't disregard either? UConn lost to Tennessee, a team that SC (and quite a few others) managed to beat. It's a shame we lost that game because otherwise we'd have an extremely strong case for a #1 seed.
 
I saw the espn bracketology this morning. I don’t like that region at all. Duke is dangerous as a 3 seed imo. The other 3 seeds are North Carolina, TCU, and Kentucky. I feel way better about UConn’s chances against those three. And I don’t want to be paired with South Carolina. We got our win against them this year. I don’t want them to get a revenge opportunity.
 
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