Bracketology [merged thread] | Page 2 | The Boneyard

Bracketology [merged thread]

Right now, he has us in Dallas, but says that any of 3 spots could work... Unfortunately, the one he doesn't talk about is the one most of us want... Ft. Wayne. We need Maryland and/or Louisville to lose, and then keep our fingers crossed. IMO, I would rather face Baylor than Oregon.... Baylor or SC as an opponent is a toss up to me.
www.espn.com

What to watch for in Monday's NCAA women's basketball selection committee reveal

The selection committee will reveal its top 16 for the second and final time this season. In which region will UConn land? Will Gonzaga make the cut?
www.espn.com www.espn.com
 
eebmg said:
Not sure which link you are using but this morning has UConn 6 and NW 8
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It was the latest one that I saw above my reply. Date was 3-1-20. And, I had Baylor as the Second #1 seed with Oregon the third. I honestly still believe that UConn ends up either a #4 or #5 in Indiana. That makes the most sense for the committee. But then again they have done some nutcase choices in the past.

Thank you!
 
eebmg said:
Not sure which link you are using but this morning has UConn 6 and NW 8

www.espn.com

What to watch for in Monday's NCAA women's basketball selection committee reveal

The selection committee will reveal its top 16 for the second and final time this season. In which region will UConn land? Will Gonzaga make the cut?
www.espn.com www.espn.com

Top 16:
1. South Carolina
2. Oregon
3. Baylor
4. Maryland
5. Louisville
6. UConn
7. Stanford
8. Northwestern
9. UCLA
10. Iowa
11. NC State
12. Mississippi State
13. Indiana
14. Gonzaga
15. Arizona
16. Oregon State
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I didn't realize that balancing the overall difficulty of the regions was one of the committee's criteria for assigning teams to regions, in addition to the S-curve and geography. It seems to me that would be a good argument for putting UConn in Fort Wayne, to avoid making it the easiest region of the four. I realize that Louisville and Maryland are likely to be higher in RPI and similar metrics than UConn, but UConn has been ranked above them all year by the AP and coaches' polls, so the "eye test" should favor UConn.

Charlie says that he decided that placing UConn in either Greenville or Portland would make the selected region by far the most difficult of the four, which is why he decided on Dallas. But he didn't comment on how "easy" the Fort Wayne region would look in comparison to the others if both Louisville and Maryland were to go there.
 
While some Boneyaders are concerned where UConn will be placed, many other teams are concerned whether or not they will get an invitation to the tournament. Thankfully, UConn has not been concerned about that for many, many years.
 
Creme doesn't have many fans in the BY so whatever he says won't hold much weight. His guess is as good as any, but just a guess. The committee will make their decisions and UConn will play their games. If we have to avenge all three losses, so be it.
 
JoePgh said:
I didn't realize that balancing the overall difficulty of the regions was one of the committee's criteria for assigning teams to regions, in addition to the S-curve and geography. It seems to me that would be a good argument for putting UConn in Fort Wayne, to avoid making it the easiest region of the four. I realize that Louisville and Maryland are likely to be higher in RPI and similar metrics than UConn, but UConn has been ranked above them all year by the AP and coaches' polls, so the "eye test" should favor UConn.
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The AP and coaches' polls are entirely irrelevant to selection, seeding and placement. The "eye test," to the very limited extent that it might actually be used, is probably not as favorable to UConn as you think.

As for the balance across regions, the following is from the tournament manual:

"After the top four seed lines have been assigned, the committee will review the relative strengths of the regions by adding the “true” seed numbers in each region to determine if any severe numerical imbalance exists. Generally, no more than five points should separate the lowest and highest total."​
 
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maccca3232 said:
I have updated my 2019-20 Creme Bracketology google spreadsheet with data from Bracketology LAST UPDATED: 3/01/20 11:45 PM ET

Want to compare all three Bracketology sources by their latest release?
2019-20 COMPARISON Bracketology

Individual Bracketology
2019-20 Creme Bracketology (ESPN)
2019-20 Steinburg Bracketology (High Post Hoops)
2019-20 CSM Bracekology (College Sports Madness)
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Thanks for this. Who is their right mind thinks Baylor is playing in Portland and Oregon in Dallas? Is that a typo?
 
bballnut90 said:
Thanks for this. Who is their right mind thinks Baylor is playing in Portland and Oregon in Dallas? Is that a typo?
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CSM don't actually list the the regions in their bracket so was just using the same format but I have now switched them around.

The spreadsheet was provided primarily to compare seeding and possible match-ups.
 
Wow, UConn according to latest Bracketology, has to beat Baylor in the Elite 8, then Oregon in Final 4, then probably SC in National Championship? Talk about the Ghosts of Christmas past....
 
I don't get the #71 Georgia Tech love? The don't deserve to be in.
Purdue has been brutal down the stretch here. Toss em out.
Tell me again how a #57 RPI gets in when only the Top #48 RPI should? And if they are 1-9 in Q1 games, why? Oh yeah because they have Tennessee on the Jersey and belong to a P5...
Iowa State #53 is also a team sliding and not deserving.

#41 Bradley deserves in over all these 4.
#43 Troy also deserves in over those above.
 
DefenseBB said:
I don't get the #71 Georgia Tech love? The don't deserve to be in.
Purdue has been brutal down the stretch here. Toss em out.
Tell me again how a #57 RPI gets in when only the Top #48 RPI should? And if they are 1-9 in Q1 games, why? Oh yeah because they have Tennessee on the Jersey and belong to a P5...
Iowa State #53 is also a team sliding and not deserving.

#41 Bradley deserves in over all these 4.
#43 Troy also deserves in over those above.
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I don't agree about Troy. Their best win and only top-100 win is over #81 Coastal Carolina, whom they also lost to. They also have a loss to #184 Louisiana (Geaux Ragin' Cajuns). Troy's resume is just not good enough. You need something other than a top 50 RPI to get in. Gotta beat somebody.

Every year there are a few teams in the 30s and low 40s of the RPI who get left out, and a few in the 50s and 60s who get in. And it doesn't always work against the mid-majors. AFAIK the lowest-RPI team to get in the women's tournament was Green Bay at #70 in 2010.
 
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DefenseBB said:
I don't get the #71 Georgia Tech love? The don't deserve to be in.
Purdue has been brutal down the stretch here. Toss em out.
Tell me again how a #57 RPI gets in when only the Top #48 RPI should? And if they are 1-9 in Q1 games, why? Oh yeah because they have Tennessee on the Jersey and belong to a P5...
Iowa State #53 is also a team sliding and not deserving.

#41 Bradley deserves in over all these 4.
#43 Troy also deserves in over those above.
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So RPI is infallible and omnipotent in your worldview? The Committee shouldn't consider anything else?
 
and one said:
Creme doesn't have many fans in the BY so whatever he says won't hold much weight. His guess is as good as any, but just a guess. The committee will make their decisions and UConn will play their games. If we have to avenge all three losses, so be it.
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What makes this guy Creme such an authority is what I want to know... Unless he has inside information and the official brackets/teams/seedlings were already chosen then his guess is about as good as anyone else's. Of course he doesn't even take into account conference tournament's.

Of course there has always been a bias against Uconn the last few years. Just like with Evina not being allowed to play. Which would have obviously made us a much better team....

But the NCAA can't have that.
 
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Plebe said:
I don't agree about Troy. Their best win and only top-100 win is over #81 Coastal Carolina, whom they also lost to. They also have a loss to #184 Louisiana (Geaux Ragin' Cajuns). Troy's resume is just not good enough. You need something other than a top 50 RPI to get in. Gotta beat somebody.

Every year there are a few teams in the 30s and low 40s of the RPI who get left out, and a few in the 50s and 60s who get in. And it doesn't always work against the mid-majors. AFAIK the lowest-RPI team to get in the women's tournament was Green Bay at #70 in 2010.
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I am HUGE fan of Helen!!! Leave her in!
 
JoePgh said:
So RPI is infallible and omnipotent in your worldview? The Committee shouldn't consider anything else?
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I am not saying it's infallible, in fact, I dislike it quite a bit, I am saying they (the committee) say they use it along with Q1 and Q2 and they look at best wins, worst losses and recent trend. All of that data screams NO TO Georgia Tech and Tennessee! If they use something else, please tell us!
 
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It is so sad that the selection committee ranks teams according to geography. They ranked Louisville #5 so they could play in the nearby Ft. Wayne region. And they have UCONN ranked as a #6 going to Portland because the other #2 seeds Stanford & UCLA can't play in Oregon's region.
 
Anybody remember what UConn was ranked last year when they were sent to nearby Albany?
 
jaydee602 said:
It is so sad that the selection committee ranks teams according to geography. They ranked Louisville #5 so they could play in the nearby Ft. Wayne region. And they have UCONN ranked as a #6 going to Portland because the other #2 seeds Stanford & UCLA can't play in Oregon's region.
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Not true. The ranking that you see is the "true seed" per the S-curve. The committee can depart from the S-curve for geography, but in this case they didn't have to.

Last year UConn was the #5 overall seed but the committee placed them in Albany with overall #3 Louisville, rather than sending them out to Portland per the true S-curve.
 
Plebe said:
Not true. The ranking that you see is the "true seed" per the S-curve. The committee can depart from the S-curve for geography, but in this case they didn't have to.

Last year UConn was the #5 overall seed but the committee placed them in Albany with overall #3 Louisville, rather than sending them out to Portland per the true S-curve.
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They didn't have to divert because they left Baylor at #3 & Louisville at #5. All of the ESPN analysts agreed that Louisville is locked into a #5 because they go to nearby Fort Wayne. That is what Antonelli was squawking about the whole game. And Charlie Creme just wrote that UCONN is stuck in Portland because Stanford & UCLA can't be the #2 seed there. So the committee matched Oregon & UCONN on the S curve.
 
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jaydee602 said:
They didn't have to divert because they left Baylor at #3 & Louisville at #5. All of the ESPN analysts agreed that Louisville is locked into a #5 because they go to nearby Fort Wayne. That is what Antonelli was squawking about the whole game. And Charlie Creme just wrote that UCONN is stuck in Portland because Stanford & UCLA can't be the #2 seed there. So the committee matched Oregon & UCONN on the S curve.
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Baylor at #3? The committee had Baylor at #2.

First of all, pay no attention to Antonelli on anything bracket-related. Not her forte.

Secondly, Louisville isn't necessarily "locked into" #5 as their overall true seed. But the issue is that even if they slipped behind UConn on the 2 line, the committee could still send them to Ft. Wayne for geographical reasons. Again, this is exactly how it worked last year to send UConn to Albany instead of Portland.
 
Plebe said:
Secondly, Louisville isn't necessarily "locked into" #5 as their overall true seed. But the issue is that even if they slipped behind UConn on the 2 line, the committee could still send them to Ft. Wayne for geographical reasons. Again, this is exactly how it worked last year to send UConn to Albany instead of Portland.
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That's right. Fort Wayne. All this talk about Fort Wayne. Its bid was accepted to throw a bone to Notre Dame and the freakin' Fighting Irish don't even make the tournament. It's now the Louisville region.
 
Plebe said:
First of all, pay no attention to Antonelli on anything bracket-related. Not her forte.
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Just to drive this point home:

I went back to watch the start of the 2nd half (which I'd missed), and one of the first things out of Tweedledee and Tweedledum's mouth was:

"You can't see a team from your conference until the regional final. So UConn doesn't necessarily have to be in Oregon. You could've put Stanford there or UCLA."

Wrong. Stanford and UCLA cannot be in the same region as Oregon because they're among the first 4 teams selected from the Pac-12 and they're seeded 4 or higher.

Debbie should just stick to talking X's and O's.
 
Plebe said:
Baylor at #3? The committee had Baylor at #2.

First of all, pay no attention to Antonelli on anything bracket-related. Not her forte.

Secondly, Louisville isn't necessarily "locked into" #5 as their overall true seed. But the issue is that even if they slipped behind UConn on the 2 line, the committee could still send them to Ft. Wayne for geographical reasons. Again, this is exactly how it worked last year to send UConn to Albany instead of Portland.
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Good stuff! Thanks for the insight.
 
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