You can see SOR and KPI on there. Those are (literally in SORs case) "Strength of Record" metrics, which are resume metrics that boil down mostly to how strong your resume is. The next group is the predictive metrics (KenPom, BPI, Sagarin). We do very well in the predictives due to our excellent-for-our-record scoring margin, and not good at all in the "computer" resume metrics, not just the Quads. NET is a sort of hybrid of the two types, which is why we're in the 50s in KenPom, the 70s+ in SOR, and the 60s in NET.
Bracketology Discussion
- Thread starter pepband99
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You can see SOR and KPI on there. Those are (literally in SORs case) "Strength of Record" metrics, which are resume metrics that boil down mostly to how strong your resume is. The next group is the predictive metrics (KenPom, BPI, Sagarin). We do very well in the predictives due to our excellent-for-our-record scoring margin, and not good at all in the "computer" resume metrics, not just the Quads. NET is a sort of hybrid of the two types, which is why we're in the 50s in KenPom, the 70s+ in SOR, and the 60s in NET.
nelsonmuntz
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You are right in that UConn would be on the bubble with wins over St. Joe's and Indiana, but we would still have to beat Houston and not lose to anyone other than Houston or maybe Wichita in the AAC tournament to get a bid.
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I think we’ll get an invite to the NIT win or lose against Houston.
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I agree we’re in good shape and don’t NEED to beat Houston.
But if we lose to Houston, I think we’ll need 2 more wins. So we could (1) beat Tulane and win one in the AAC tourney or (2) lose to Tulane and then win our first 2 in the AAC tourney.
If we beat Houston, I think we’ve punched our ticket barring something silly like losing our next two games by 20 points each.
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That wasn't what I responding to. I was responding to the idea that Michigan's loss to them is a "bad loss." It is manifestly not.
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They're on the list because they have wins against Duke, Florida State, and Louisville. That's 3 of the Top 11 teams, according to NET.
They're not going to make it, but that's more impressive than every other team on the bubble, and many firmly in it.
pepband99
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UConn, as a non-bubble team (at least for most, for now) is TWENTY PLACES above Clemson. There is no way in hell they are even close to the bubble, even with those wins.
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The NET isn't the end all be all. UCLA is 76 and is in a lot of projections.
Clemson won't make it, but I'd bet they're closer than you think.
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Help me with all this Quad and NET stuff. Is a Quad 1 win locked in on the day you play the game, or, can a game lose it's Quad 1 victory status if the opponent goes on a tailspin? I keep reading we have no Quad 1 wins even though we beat Florida when they were ranked in the top 10. Certainly a team that beat Memphis early in the season with Wiseman shouldn't lose a quad 1 win vs Memphis just because they are not as good without him later in the season. That doesn't make sense. If the system is dynamic, can our competition on the bubble lose Quad 1 wins over the next week? For instance, a top 70 team they beat on the other team's home court, loses to a lousy team in the first round of their tournament and moves down to 77th, and now they have a quad 2 win versus a quad 1? Or a quad 2 loss drops to become a quad 3 loss and now we look better in comparison to them.
What is NET actually measuring. Thanks
What is NET actually measuring. Thanks
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Quads are dynamic. So you could beat team #103 on the road, and they go on a hot run and finish #73, that's a quad 2 win. The NET is attempting to combine predictive analytics (think KenPom) with actual results. How well it does that is still up for debate as this is just year two of using it.
pepband99
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Moot now - losing at home to GIT isn't the best look either.
This is either going to the best or worst bubble, maybe ever. Mediocrity seems even more rampant than usual.
CTBasketball
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Things we need:
Rutgers to beat Purdue
Wake Forest to beat NC State
Ga Tech to beat Clemson
Ole Miss to beat Miss St
Auburn to beat Tennessee
Texas A&M to beat Arkansas
Duquesne to beat Richmond
Umass to beat URI
Houston to beat Memphis
Tulsa to beat Wichita St
Wyoming to beat Utah St
Some of these can arguably go either way, just tried listing bubble teams ahead of us right now that need to lose.
Rutgers to beat Purdue
Wake Forest to beat NC State
Ga Tech to beat Clemson
Ole Miss to beat Miss St
Auburn to beat Tennessee
Texas A&M to beat Arkansas
Duquesne to beat Richmond
Umass to beat URI
Houston to beat Memphis
Tulsa to beat Wichita St
Wyoming to beat Utah St
Some of these can arguably go either way, just tried listing bubble teams ahead of us right now that need to lose.
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Things we need or things that will help? If we need all, that’s a long list and not likely. I’m impressed by your research, thanks.
CTBasketball
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They will help!
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We are 2-5 vs teams that are last 4 in/first 4 out/next 4 out (going off Lunardi). That doesn't help. While we finally have a nice little resume with 3 Quad 1 wins (ASU is last 4 in with 5) I still think we need to win the AAC tournament.
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UConn, in all likelihood, needs to win the AAC tournament at Dickies Arena in Fort Worth, Texas to earn the automatic NCAA bid. And anyone who’s watched the Huskies play the past two weeks — heck, the past six weeks — knows that is a distinct possibility.
But let’s say that doesn’t happen. Is there any path to an at-large bid for UConn?
www.ctinsider.com
But let’s say that doesn’t happen. Is there any path to an at-large bid for UConn?
Can UConn make the NCAA tournament as an at-large team? Not likely.
It’s possible that UConn could emerge as an at-large NCAA tournament team, but far more...
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“Dangerous. We’re dangerous,” guard Christian Vital said. “I don’t think anyone wants to play us.”
Floating on air
Floating on air
wheelerdog
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2001
2016 until we won the AAC tournament. We were likely in, but we were in all the bubble watch columns that year. We didn't have to sweat the selection show, though.
UConnSwag11
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need cuse to lose today to miami
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pepband99
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Aside from the joy it will bring, why? I like our chances on an AAC run far more than Cuse in the ACC, and they're a notch below us in every ranking.
UConnSwag11
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also, for the past several years they've been either soft bubble teams or should be out but they sneak in for who knows that reasons. don't want them to be close to the bubble
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This may be true but it can't hurt to have them even further below
pepband99
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pepband99
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You're missing one key team - ironically, PeeCee. hey @Palatine, want to see why the AAC sucks? PeeCee is basically our resume, but in the Big East. Their Long Beach State loss is actually WORSE than our St Joe's loss. We're barely fringe. They're trending to an 8/9 game. You keep lobbing rocks off of your "ZBE" anthill.
CTBasketball
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I heard Providence, RI doesn’t have running water.
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