Bracketology Discussion

[tzznandrew]

i see what u mean. michigan has somewhat of a bad loss @minnesota who is 13-15 right now. but overall, big ten has been superior this season. i mean look at indiana and rutgers. 9th and 10th place in the conference and that is just above the bottom 4 of the league and they're bubble teams/last 4 in.

then you look at the American and see a team like Wichita who's 22-7 who's barely in the field and Tulsa who are having the season of their lives at 20-9 and aren't even in contention of bubble talk. the conference disparity is incredible! wichita have also had a good non conference schedule and the fact that they're spot in the tournament was in contention this late in the season says it all.

Minnesota, 13-15, NET 46

Only Wichita (45) and Houston (19) have higher NET rankings in the American.

 

[Dream Jobbed 2.0]

Or our last 8 games, were 6-2 with a 4 point loss @ SMU and a 2OT loss @ Temple. We’re catching fire, if we didn’t hit a slump in January we’d lock up an at large

If we won just half of our brutal losses we’d be 21-7. It’s a matter of about 10 points in 4 games. Killer

 

[Dream Jobbed 2.0]

Minnesota, 13-15, NET 46

Only Wichita (45) and Houston (19) have higher NET rankings in the American.

NET is flawed

 

[Slasher]

Minnesota, 13-15, NET 46

Only Wichita (45) and Houston (19) have higher NET rankings in the American.

Doesn't matter what their rating is, they won't make the tournament. The NET is just a sorting tool.

 

[SoFla Steve]

And Cincinnati (53)

 

[king conn]

I believe the committee also uses BPI, I never see that mentioned here.

The thing is, if we beat Houston it would put us smack inside the bubble in all the metrics.

 

[VAHuskyFan]

I believe the committee also uses BPI, I never see that mentioned here.

The thing is, if we beat Houston it would put us smack inside the bubble in all the metrics.

Agree, but our problem is out Quad 1-4 W/L resume. The computers give us credit for playing really well against good teams and coming up just short. The quad chart doesn’t and that knocks us out of contention.

A win against Houston would almost certainly earn us an invite to the NIT though.

 

[Slasher]

I believe the committee also uses BPI, I never see that mentioned here.

The thing is, if we beat Houston it would put us smack inside the bubble in all the metrics.

Committee uses everything you see here. This is the actual official sheet the committee uses:

 

[king conn]

Committee uses everything you see here. This is the actual official sheet the committee uses:

View attachment 51456

From what I see on my phone, that's just the NET sheet
I've read they also refer to other metrics like BPI, KenPom etc

 

[Slasher]

From what I see on my phone, that's just the NET sheet
I've read they also refer to other metrics like BPI, KenPom etc

Yes and all those metrics are on the sheet. This is literally the team sheet they get in the room.

 

[auror]

Agree, but our problem is out Quad 1-4 W/L resume. The computers give us credit for playing really well against good teams and coming up just short.

Yes and all those metrics are on the sheet. This is literally the team sheet they get in the room.

You can see SOR and KPI on there. Those are (literally in SORs case) "Strength of Record" metrics, which are resume metrics that boil down mostly to how strong your resume is. The next group is the predictive metrics (KenPom, BPI, Sagarin). We do very well in the predictives due to our excellent-for-our-record scoring margin, and not good at all in the "computer" resume metrics, not just the Quads. NET is a sort of hybrid of the two types, which is why we're in the 50s in KenPom, the 70s+ in SOR, and the 60s in NET.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Thats why life in the AAC made every game so important. If we can go back in time and flip any of our losses without asking too much, I wish we could have just beat St Joe’s and Indiana. That would boost our resume by removing one really bad loss while adding another quality win, and 19-10 would look a lot better than 17-12 right now. I think that would have put us on the bubble with a good shot of being able to play our way in without having to win the AAC Tournament.

You are right in that UConn would be on the bubble with wins over St. Joe's and Indiana, but we would still have to beat Houston and not lose to anyone other than Houston or maybe Wichita in the AAC tournament to get a bid.

 

[AntG168]

Agree, but our problem is out Quad 1-4 W/L resume. The computers give us credit for playing really well against good teams and coming up just short. The quad chart doesn’t and that knocks us out of contention.

A win against Houston would almost certainly earn us an invite to the NIT though.

I think we’ll get an invite to the NIT win or lose against Houston.

 

[VAHuskyFan]

I think we’ll get an invite to the NIT win or lose against Houston.

I agree we’re in good shape and don’t NEED to beat Houston.

But if we lose to Houston, I think we’ll need 2 more wins. So we could (1) beat Tulane and win one in the AAC tourney or (2) lose to Tulane and then win our first 2 in the AAC tourney.

If we beat Houston, I think we’ve punched our ticket barring something silly like losing our next two games by 20 points each.

 

[tzznandrew]

Doesn't matter what their rating is, they won't make the tournament. The NET is just a sorting tool.

That wasn't what I responding to. I was responding to the idea that Michigan's loss to them is a "bad loss." It is manifestly not.

 

[UConnDad]

 

[pepband99]

ESPN continues to track Clemson as a bubble team. It's amazingly shilly and stupid.

Eamonn Brennan in the Athletic is outright calling on us to steal a bid.

 

[tzznandrew]

ESPN continues to track Clemson as a bubble team. It's amazingly shilly and stupid.

Eamonn Brennan in the Athletic is outright calling on us to steal a bid.

They're on the list because they have wins against Duke, Florida State, and Louisville. That's 3 of the Top 11 teams, according to NET.

They're not going to make it, but that's more impressive than every other team on the bubble, and many firmly in it.

 

[pepband99]

They're on the list because they have wins against Duke, Florida State, and Louisville. That's 3 of the Top 11 teams, according to NET.

They're not going to make it, but that's more impressive than every other team on the bubble, and many firmly in it.

UConn, as a non-bubble team (at least for most, for now) is TWENTY PLACES above Clemson. There is no way in hell they are even close to the bubble, even with those wins.

 

[pepband99]

Northern Iowa is now squarely in bubble hell, with a loss in their conf tourney quarters. I tend to think they're out, but it will be a sweat through next Sunday.

 

[tzznandrew]

UConn, as a non-bubble team (at least for most, for now) is TWENTY PLACES above Clemson. There is no way in hell they are even close to the bubble, even with those wins.

The NET isn't the end all be all. UCLA is 76 and is in a lot of projections.

Clemson won't make it, but I'd bet they're closer than you think.

 

[Ricker]

Help me with all this Quad and NET stuff. Is a Quad 1 win locked in on the day you play the game, or, can a game lose it's Quad 1 victory status if the opponent goes on a tailspin? I keep reading we have no Quad 1 wins even though we beat Florida when they were ranked in the top 10. Certainly a team that beat Memphis early in the season with Wiseman shouldn't lose a quad 1 win vs Memphis just because they are not as good without him later in the season. That doesn't make sense. If the system is dynamic, can our competition on the bubble lose Quad 1 wins over the next week? For instance, a top 70 team they beat on the other team's home court, loses to a lousy team in the first round of their tournament and moves down to 77th, and now they have a quad 2 win versus a quad 1? Or a quad 2 loss drops to become a quad 3 loss and now we look better in comparison to them.

What is NET actually measuring. Thanks

 

[Slasher]

Help me with all this Quad and NET stuff. Is a Quad 1 win locked in on the day you play the game, or, can a game lose it's Quad 1 victory status if the opponent goes on a tailspin? I keep reading we have no Quad 1 wins even though we beat Florida when they were ranked in the top 10. Certainly a team that beat Memphis early in the season with Wiseman shouldn't lose a quad 1 win vs Memphis just because they are not as good without him later in the season. That doesn't make sense. If the system is dynamic, can our competition on the bubble lose Quad 1 wins over the next week? For instance, a top 70 team they beat on the other team's home court, loses to a lousy team in the first round of their tournament and moves down to 77th, and now they have a quad 2 win versus a quad 1? Or a quad 2 loss drops to become a quad 3 loss and now we look better in comparison to them.

What is NET actually measuring. Thanks

Quads are dynamic. So you could beat team #103 on the road, and they go on a hot run and finish #73, that's a quad 2 win. The NET is attempting to combine predictive analytics (think KenPom) with actual results. How well it does that is still up for debate as this is just year two of using it.

 

[pepband99]

The NET isn't the end all be all. UCLA is 76 and is in a lot of projections.

Clemson won't make it, but I'd bet they're closer than you think.

Moot now - losing at home to GIT isn't the best look either.

This is either going to the best or worst bubble, maybe ever. Mediocrity seems even more rampant than usual.

 

[JB75]

When was the last time we were actually a bubble team? Ever?