Bracketology Discussion

[Dream Jobbed 2.0]

They should be a HEAVY fav to win it all. The Midwest region though at the top could be tough. Very tough.

You know that’s not how the regions work?

 

[pepband99]

ESPN now listing Clemson on their bubble watch. What a weird profile...

Losses to Yale, at Wake, South Carolina
Wins (all at home) dook, LCC, and F$U.

Of note - UConn is about 10 spots higher than Clemson in pretty much all metrics.

 

[Tuna]

Not for nothing, but Kansas is building one of the best profiles in recent memory.

From Kenpom - they're the #7 offense, #1 Defense, playing against the #1 SOS.

For stats nerds, this could be the sign of a juggernaut.

For those that hate advanced metrics (cough @Waquoit ), this should be a referendum on them, if Kansas pulls one of their signature first weekend meltdowns.

Fascinating stuff.

Equally fascinating is how KU is even eligible to compete in the tournament.

 

[Dream Jobbed 2.0]

What are we looking at if we run the table? 12 seed? Love the 12 seed

 

[Friarsnoop]

Rutgers needs more wins. They are 1-9 away from home, with their single win at Nebraska (aka the East Carolina of the Big Ten).

 

[pepband99]

Equally fascinating is how KU is even eligible to compete in the tournament.

The list of likely tournament teams that likely shouldn't be fielding teams at all is something that's been on my mind for a while:

Kansas
LSU
Arizona
Auburn
LCC
NC St
Maryland
(spot reserved for UNC)

...it's madness.

 

[BlueDogs]

I mean, that has nothing to do with NET or KenPom, but you do you.

And, by Izzo crying every year, do you mean in his 8 Final Fours (3 in the last decade), with an E8 and a number of S16s mixed in?

I presume you appreciate that the starting ranking and weighting factors have a casual effect on the outputs both in the immediate but also longer time frames. It’s a self licking ice cream cone. The reason why the big dance is always is exciting is Cinderellas are not rare. They are in fact fairly common.

 

[tzznandrew]

I presume you appreciate that the starting ranking and weighting factors have a casual effect on the outputs both in the immediate but also longer time frames. It’s a self licking ice cream cone. The reason why the big dance is always is exciting is Cinderellas are not rare. They are in fact fairly common.

I can't speak about NET, but by January all "pre-season" rankings are out of KenPom.

 

[Matt1010]

ESPN now listing Clemson on their bubble watch. What a weird profile...

Losses to Yale, at Wake, South Carolina
Wins (all at home) dook, LCC, and F$U.

Of note - UConn is about 10 spots higher than Clemson in pretty much all metrics.

Clemson is definitely not getting in unless they win the ACC tournament

 

[ucawn]

Or our last 8 games, were 6-2 with a 4 point loss @ SMU and a 2OT loss @ Temple. We’re catching fire, if we didn’t hit a slump in January we’d lock up an at large

 

[Brochacho]

We've got a good squad, and the computers like us. But there's no bubble for us. 0-5 in Quad 1 games. We have a brutal Q4 home loss. Its auto-bid or bust unfortunately.

 

[tzznandrew]

They need to beat Houston, have Florida become Top 30, and make a run the in the AAC beating at least two of Houston/Cincy/Wichita (and, despite beating the latter two, hope they stay Top 50 NET). And then, just then, we'd have 4 Q1 wins.

I mean, you can't rule it out, but it is about as fringe as you could get.

 

[HooperScooper]

“I used to say all the time,” Bouknight said, “and people looked at me like I was crazy, I still think we can make the Tournament. I think we can win this conference.”

Shorthanded UConn men fight off foul trouble to win at East Carolina behind 27 points from Christian Vital

UConn, its postseason hopes on the line, was living on the edge Saturday. At times, it looked as if the Huskies, despite leading by double digits, might run out of players and the game could slip a…

www.courant.com

 

[storrsroars]

I threw this together just for S&G. Just a quick look at the teams "with work to do" according to ESPN Bracket Watch. I wanted to see how UConn stacked up in NET and KenPom metrics. Obviously this doesn't take into account signature wins and other things the selection committee looks at, and it only concerns teams currently on the bubble (plus UConn). But, it shows how tantalizingly close this team is. Converting maybe only as few as two of those seven close losses might well have us firmly in the bubble.

 

[BLUEDOGHOUSE]

You know that’s not how the regions work?

Explain...Kansas can opt to play in the Midwest as a potential overall #1 seed. IF they do a team like Dayton will be around six hours closer to INDY giving a homecourt edge to Dayton. Houston is the other option for a regional final in the South. Houston geographically from a distance perspective is farther away from Lawrence. I would assume they will still opt for the Midwest. Right now would you prefer Dayton or Creighton in INDY or another 2 seed in Houston. Maybe Maryland? Tough choice.

Thanks

 

[Jaker]

I think the NCAA does reward teams for how they are playing in Feb&March, even though they say they don't. "If" we were to win out and lose a squeeker in the American final to say Houston, I think the NCAA would give us serious consideration for an "at large" bid.

 

[tzznandrew]

I think the NCAA does reward teams for how they are playing in Feb&March, even though they say they don't. "If" we were to win out and lose a squeeker in the American final to say Houston, I think the NCAA would give us serious consideration for an "at large" bid.

In that scenario, they're 22-13. They'd still need Florida and Houston to stay Top 30, and you'd really hope that you're on the same side of the bracket as Wichita and Cincy, because beating Tulsa does nothing for your profile (83 NET, 80 KenPom).

But that's the sort of low likelihood series of events it would take, and even then it wouldn't be a guarantee.

Let's beat Houston. They do that, they're likely looking at 19 wins. It guarantees an NIT bid, and it at least offers them to chance to do what you suggested.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

By the time UConn did what it would need to do to earn an at-large, it would have the automatic bid.

Two too many bad losses, and one too few good wins for an NCAA bid.

 

[BlueDogs]

Looking at Michigan at 18-10 ranked 19th and it makes you wonder. Nothing special.

 

[tzznandrew]

Looking at Michigan at 18-10 ranked 19th and it makes you wonder. Nothing special.

I mean, I guess. If you only look at record. But then you look at what they did and you see they've beaten, including Gonzaga on a neutral site by 18.

They have 7 Q1 wins (more than we've played) and no bad losses. If you took a look at UConn vs Michigan and took the names off, it's embarrassing how much better their resume is.

 

[pepband99]

I mean, I guess. If you only look at record. But then you look at what they did and you see they've beaten, including Gonzaga on a neutral site by 18.

They have 7 Q1 wins (more than we've played) and no bad losses. If you took a look at UConn vs Michigan and took the names off, it's embarrassing how much better their resume is.

I wonder if that game, Michigan / Gonzaga, is one of the main causes of the metrics being so crazy this year. It's always a small sample size, the OOC slate.

 

[UofCT]

I think the NCAA does reward teams for how they are playing in Feb&March, even though they say they don't. "If" we were to win out and lose a squeeker in the American final to say Houston, I think the NCAA would give us serious consideration for an "at large" bid.

The committee has proven that they don’t reward anyone from the AAC. The outlier was Tulsa getting an at large a few years back but since then the AAC gets no respect.

 

[tzznandrew]

The committee has proven that they don’t reward anyone from the AAC. The outlier was Tulsa getting an at large a few years back but since then the AAC gets no respect.

Temple one year too.

Other than SMU that first year, most teams that should have gotten in, did, and 1 to 2 that shouldn't have, did. But, by and large, the seeding has been where the AAC has gotten squashed. The one year that wasn't the case, Cincy crapped itself.

 

[HuskyBoi]

I mean, I guess. If you only look at record. But then you look at what they did and you see they've beaten, including Gonzaga on a neutral site by 18.

They have 7 Q1 wins (more than we've played) and no bad losses. If you took a look at UConn vs Michigan and took the names off, it's embarrassing how much better their resume is.

i see what u mean. michigan has somewhat of a bad loss @minnesota who is 13-15 right now. but overall, big ten has been superior this season. i mean look at indiana and rutgers. 9th and 10th place in the conference and that is just above the bottom 4 of the league and they're bubble teams/last 4 in.

then you look at the American and see a team like Wichita who's 22-7 who's barely in the field and Tulsa who are having the season of their lives at 20-9 and aren't even in contention of bubble talk. the conference disparity is incredible! wichita have also had a good non conference schedule and the fact that they're spot in the tournament was in contention this late in the season says it all.

 

[Ts5034]

By the time UConn did what it would need to do to earn an at-large, it would have the automatic bid.

Two too many bad losses, and one too few good wins for an NCAA bid.

Thats why life in the AAC made every game so important. If we can go back in time and flip any of our losses without asking too much, I wish we could have just beat St Joe’s and Indiana. That would boost our resume by removing one really bad loss while adding another quality win, and 19-10 would look a lot better than 17-12 right now. I think that would have put us on the bubble with a good shot of being able to play our way in without having to win the AAC Tournament.