Bracketology Discussion

[pepband99]

Getting close enough, i think...

1) This NCAA season looks like 2012 to me. It's bizarro world.

• Rutgers potentially an at large?
• Penn State as a protected seed?
• Baylor as a 1 seed?
• UNC last in the ACC?

From the tournament point of view, this tells me that we could see a ton of upsets this year. So many programs not accustomed to the tournament, and winning in the tournament. 2012 had 2 15's advance - I'm thinking we might see something like that again.

2) The number of way-under-500 teams in conference, and even some overall under-500, that seem safely in is insane. The bubble is even worse. Georgetown? Minnesota? Arkansas? The bottom of the at large pool is going to be absolutely fascinating.

3) If the Big 10 doesn't win it all this year, will they ever? I would love to see how they managed to break the NET and other rankings so badly, but they're going to have a massive pool in the tournament. Maybe too many, a la the Big East in 2011, where they will knock off each other in a couple of early games.

 

[Slasher]

Rutgers needs to beat some teams away from the RAC to get a bid. They are 1-8 in road/neutral games. No at large has ever had fewer than 3.

 

[Dream Jobbed 2.0]

Rutgers has lost 4/6 and are underdogs in all remaining games. If they crack 20 wins they should still be in.

 

[tzznandrew]

Rutgers has a NET of 33. Barring an epic collapse, they're going to the tournament.

You can't game KenPom. The B10 has 12 teams in the Top 40 because they play high quality basketball. Much like the Big East (every member in the Top 84) and B12 (all teams Top 100).

It's also that the P12 has been bad forever, the ACC is really bad this year, and other leagues (like the American) are down.

 

[Dream Jobbed 2.0]

Rutgers has a NET of 33. Barring an epic collapse, they're going to the tournament.

You can't game KenPom. The B10 has 12 teams in the Top 40 because they play high quality basketball. Much like the Big East (every member in the Top 84) and B12 (all teams Top 100).

It's also that the P12 has been bad forever, the ACC is really bad this year, and other leagues (like the American) are down.

They’re underdogs in every remaining game. So weirdly enough even if they lose out their metrics won’t change much but will 18-13 in the regular season be enough regardless of NET?

 

[BLUEDOGHOUSE]

Kansas has created very noticeable separation from the rest of the pack.

There is no team I would rather see lose before the 2nd weekend than Kansas. The program in general is my least favorite.

They could face Dayton as a #2 seed though within three hours of Dayton (Indy). That game will be something else IF they both survive.

 

[tzznandrew]

They’re underdogs in every remaining game. So weirdly enough even if they lose out their metrics won’t change much but will 18-13 in the regular season be enough regardless of NET?

I think it highly unlikely they don't make it if they're metrics hold up.

 

[Hankster]

Getting close enough, i think...

1) This NCAA season looks like 2012 to me. It's bizarro world.

• Rutgers potentially an at large?
• Penn State as a protected seed?
• Baylor as a 1 seed?
• UNC last in the ACC?

From the tournament point of view, this tells me that we could see a ton of upsets this year. So many programs not accustomed to the tournament, and winning in the tournament. 2012 had 2 15's advance - I'm thinking we might see something like that again.

2) The number of way-under-500 teams in conference, and even some overall under-500, that seem safely in is insane. The bubble is even worse. Georgetown? Minnesota? Arkansas? The bottom of the at large pool is going to be absolutely fascinating.

3) If the Big 10 doesn't win it all this year, will they ever? I would love to see how they managed to break the NET and other rankings so badly, but they're going to have a massive pool in the tournament. Maybe too many, a la the Big East in 2011, where they will knock off each other in a couple of early games.

It doesn't look good for UNC to make the dance this year. And as I keep looking at it, they might not make the NIT.

 

[gtcam]

Kansas beat BU when BU had an off game
I am not convinced at all that Kansas is the best team
This year is a wide open field and ripe for a team like Dayton to click on all cylinders and make a lot of noise
San Diego missed shots last night they usually make - they are closest to an NBA like team in the tourney but an off shooting night will kill them (as with quite a few others) Maryland could be a sleeper

 

[Watchdog]

They’re underdogs in every remaining game. So weirdly enough even if they lose out their metrics won’t change much but will 18-13 in the regular season be enough regardless of NET?

It was for Syralouse a year or two ago, so who knows?

 

[ClifSpliffy]

Rutgers has a NET of 33. Barring an epic collapse, they're going to the tournament.

You can't game KenPom. The B10 has 12 teams in the Top 40 because they play high quality basketball. Much like the Big East (every member in the Top 84) and B12 (all teams Top 100).

It's also that the P12 has been bad forever, the ACC is really bad this year, and other leagues (like the American) are down.

here we go again. it's the annual "great big ten' nonsense season. what's it, like 2 decades since anyone of them won a championship? (waits for the obligatory 'bbut, this time it's different' mumbledygook. prove it, tho with history on my side, im certainly not betting on it. again)

 

[tzznandrew]

here we go again. it's the annual "great big ten' nonsense season. what's it, like 2 decades since anyone of them won a championship? (waits for the obligatory 'bbut, this time it's different' mumbledygook. prove it, tho with history on my side, im certainly not betting on it. again)

I mean, only one team can win a title, and not winning a title doesn't mean the league wasn't very good. 2009 BE was fantastic, and there was no title.

It's also not like they don't perform well in the NCAAs. They've had teams consistently in the Final Four and title game this whole decade.

Also, past performance doesn't indicate how good teams are this year. 2010 UConn sucked, 2011 UConn was champions. 2018 Virginia lost to a 16-seed, 2019 team was champions.

 

[Slasher]

NC State was left out with a 33 NET rating just last year. That is definitely not guaranteed in territory especially with 1-9 road/neutral record.

 

[UofCT]

Could it be Gonzaga’s year?

 

[pepband99]

Could it be Gonzaga’s year?

It very well could be, but i always worry about teams that haven't seen a live body in 2 months. The BYU loss probably sheds some unhelpful light on them, too...

 

[BlueDogs]

here we go again. it's the annual "great big ten' nonsense season. what's it, like 2 decades since anyone of them won a championship? (waits for the obligatory 'bbut, this time it's different' mumbledygook. prove it, tho with history on my side, im certainly not betting on it. again)

B1G basketball is habitually overrated because it pays the bills to promote the conference. My summary of the B1G is Izzo all red faced and crying year over year.

 

[tzznandrew]

B1G basketball is habitually overrated because it pays the bills to promote the conference. My summary of the B1G is Izzo all red faced and crying year over year.

I mean, that has nothing to do with NET or KenPom, but you do you.

And, by Izzo crying every year, do you mean in his 8 Final Fours (3 in the last decade), with an E8 and a number of S16s mixed in?

 

[nelsonmuntz]

There is not a long track record with the NET to understand how much weight in carries. In the old days, you could draw a line at 40 in the RPI, and everyone above it was in, and almost everyone between 40 and 50 was in. It feels like the tournament selection has gotten a lot more subjective, which was probably the point of the new system.

 

[pepband99]

There is not a long track record with the NET to understand how much weight in carries. In the old days, you could draw a line at 40 in the RPI, and everyone above it was in, and almost everyone between 40 and 50 was in. It feels like the tournament selection has gotten a lot more subjective, which was probably the point of the new system.

It's an interesting comparison (assuming this page is even right):

RealTimeRPI.com Men's College Basketball Rating Percentage Index (RPI) Ratings - A leading sports ratings and resources community on the Internet

RealTimeRPI.com: RPI, RPI Rankings, college basketball rpi, Real Time NCAA College Basketball and Sports Ratings - the most accurate independent analysis of the NCAA college basketball Rating Percentage Index (RPI)

realtimerpi.com

At a glance, the B1G dominance would take a pretty big hit...

 

[tykurez]

Could it be Gonzaga’s year?

Came in here to post this. Considering the relative down year from a “separating themselves from the pack” perspective, the metrics would tell you it should be their year.

That loss to BYU must have stung but that’s a top-20 team playing @ home where they’ve only lost once all year and it was early in the season to a really strong Aztec team.

 

[pepband99]

Not for nothing, but Kansas is building one of the best profiles in recent memory.

From Kenpom - they're the #7 offense, #1 Defense, playing against the #1 SOS.

For stats nerds, this could be the sign of a juggernaut.

For those that hate advanced metrics (cough @Waquoit ), this should be a referendum on them, if Kansas pulls one of their signature first weekend meltdowns.

Fascinating stuff.

 

[Waquoit]

For those that hate advanced metrics (cough @Waquoit ), this should be a referendum on them, if Kansas pulls one of their signature first weekend meltdowns.

For the record, I don't hate advanced metrics. I used to get Bill James Baseball Abstract every year in the 80's. I'm just not buying everything these metrics and the adherents are selling.

 

[businesslawyer]

Came in here to post this. Considering the relative down year from a “separating themselves from the pack” perspective, the metrics would tell you it should be their year.

That loss to BYU must have stung but that’s a top-20 team playing @ home where they’ve only lost once all year and it was early in the season to a really strong Aztec team.

What, no playing at altitude excuse? The Gonzaga fanbase needs to study the SDSU fanbase more.

 

[BLUEDOGHOUSE]

Not for nothing, but Kansas is building one of the best profiles in recent memory.

From Kenpom - they're the #7 offense, #1 Defense, playing against the #1 SOS.

For stats nerds, this could be the sign of a juggernaut.

For those that hate advanced metrics (cough @Waquoit ), this should be a referendum on them, if Kansas pulls one of their signature first weekend meltdowns.

Fascinating stuff.

They should be a HEAVY fav to win it all. The Midwest region though at the top could be tough. Very tough.

 

[tzznandrew]

Rutgers has a NET of 33. Barring an epic collapse, they're going to the tournament.

You can't game KenPom. The B10 has 12 teams in the Top 40 because they play high quality basketball. Much like the Big East (every member in the Top 84) and B12 (all teams Top 100).

It's also that the P12 has been bad forever, the ACC is really bad this year, and other leagues (like the American) are down.

I'm going to throw it out there: I'm considering I may be wrong here. They've gotta win one of their last three or do something minor in the B10 tourney. Winning any of them is enough, but in retrospect they really needed that Michigan win. That would have wrapped it up, I think.