Bracketology 3/9/2019

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Doing some bubble math here:

The following 29 teams are absolute locks for the NCAAs, even with a conference tournament loss:
ACC: ND, Louisville, NC State, Miami, Syracuse, Florida St
SEC: Miss St, South Carolina, Texas A&M, Missouri, Kentucky
Big 12: Baylor, Iowa St, Texas
Big Ten: Iowa, Maryland, Rutgers
Pac-12: Oregon, Stanford, Oregon St, Arizona St, UCLA
Others: UConn, Marquette, Gonzaga, Drake, S. Dakota, S. Dakota St, Central Michigan

The following 9 teams are highly probable at-large teams (would be very hard to justify leaving them out):
ACC: Clemson, North Carolina
SEC: Auburn
Big 12: Kansas St
Big Ten: Michigan, Michigan St
Pac-12: Cal
Others: DePaul, BYU

The following 11 teams I would classify as possible at-large teams (assuming a conference tournament loss):
ACC: Virginia Tech
SEC: Tennessee
Big 12: West Virginia, TCU
Big Ten: Indiana
Pac-12: USC
Others: UCF, Buffalo, Ohio, Butler, Miami (OH)

If there are no "bid stealers" in conferences like the SEC, Pac-12, MAC, WCC, MVC, Summit or (god forbid) AAC, then if my math is right there will be 5 final at-large bids that will almost certainly come from this group of 11 teams. (Of course, every "bid theft" will cause that number to shrink.)

(If someone other than Rice wins C-USA, Rice becomes a "possible" team, but frankly I wouldn't like their chances.)
I am wondering why you don't just make an spreadsheet listing your order for bubble teams. Perhaps you prefer posters continue critiquing Creme?
 
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A&M is a marginal Top 16 seed at best; Stanford is in the discussion for the last #1 national seed. I must have missed why these two teams are even being compared.
tfw you jump to the end of a thread and see your team mentioned on the top of a page and immediately think “WHAT?!!” before clicking Prev to try and figure out where that came from. :eek:
 
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I am wondering why you don't just make an spreadsheet listing your order bubble teams. Perhaps you prefer posters continuing critiquing Creme?
Yes, I think he makes a better punching bag than I do. Why try to steal his thunder.

I chuckled at this tweet:
 
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A&M is a marginal Top 16 seed at best; Stanford is in the discussion for the last #1 national seed. I must have missed why these two teams are even being compared.
Well, let's see here. A&M beat Oregon State, and Oregon State beat Oregon the last time they played, and Oregon beat Stanford by 40 earlier in the season. So looks like A&M is the better team!

Or how about this: Stanford lost to Utah, and Utah lost to USC, and USC lost to A&M. No way to dispute that!

:)
 
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I say if TENN gets in then let the entire SEC in as well. What the hell. Reward failure across the board.
Tennessee will be in the Big Dance because they are Tennessee and because of the Committee continuing Pat's Legacy (continuing the streak) as long as they possibly can...imo.

Oh, and whether they deserve it or not...
 
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MSGRET

MSG, US Army Retired
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When are all the WCBB Division 1 conference tournaments, that could impact the 64 team field, finished?
Today you have 4 Conference Finals; Wed - 1; Fri - 2; Sat - 8; and Sun - 7, for a total of 22 Conference Finals left out of the 32 Auto bids. To my knowledge none of conference leaders would get an at large bid if they should not win their Conference Championship. So most it most like means that That team from you know where is in.:mad::mad::mad:
 
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Today you have 4 Conference Finals; Wed - 1; Fri - 2; Sat - 8; and Sun - 7, for a total of 22 Conference Finals left out of the 32 Auto bids. To my knowledge none of conference leaders would get an at large bid if they should not win their Conference Championship. So most it most like means that That team from you know where is in.:mad::mad::mad:
There are still two conferences with clear "bid stealing" potential: the Missouri Valley and the MAC. Drake and Central Michigan would definitely get an at-large if they lose in the conference tourney.

Or *possibly* a 3rd, if Rice loses in C-USA. But that one would surprise me.
 
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There are still two conferences with clear "bid stealing" potential: the Missouri Valley and the MAC. Drake and Central Michigan would definitely get an at-large if they lose in the conference tourney.

Or *possibly* a 3rd, if Rice loses in C-USA. But that one would surprise me.
It also matters who wins.

In the MAC both Buffalo and Ohio are currently in the "Last four in", so if they win it won't necessarily change who gets At-Large bids (Central Mich. would replace them not another team, so a swap). Unlikely another team beats two of them.

In the MVC neither Missouri St. or Northern Iowa (UNI) are currently in the field, so that would change who gets At-Large bids (Drake would have to replace another team).

So those hoping Tennessee don't make the field, based on Creme's latest Bracketology, which had Buffalo, Tennessee and Ohio in that order in the "Last four in", you would need the following:
  1. Drake loses MVC
  2. Ohio wins MAC (to move ahead of Tennessee on "Last four in")
  3. Rice loses C-USA
Even then both Rice AND Buffalo (who would have lost in MAC-Conf) would both need to get At-Large bids over Tennessee.
 
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It also matters who wins.

In the MAC both Buffalo and Ohio are currently in the "Last four in", so if they win it won't necessarily change who gets At-Large bids (Central Mich. would replace them not another team, so a swap). Unlikely another team beats two of them.

In the MVC neither Missouri St. or Northern Iowa (UNI) are currently in the field, so that would change who gets At-Large bids (Drake would have to replace another team).

So those hoping Tennessee don't make the field, based on Creme's latest Bracketology, which had Buffalo, Tennessee and Ohio in that order in the "Last four in", you need to followng:
  1. Drake loses MVC
  2. Ohio wins MAC (to move ahead of Tennessee on "Last four in")
  3. Rice loses C-USA
Even then both Rice AND Buffalo (who would have lost in MAC-Conf) would both need to get At-Large bids over Tennessee.
The bid-stealing and bubble scenarios in the MAC are murky and intriguing. I limited myself to naming the one MAC team that would *definitely* get an at-large regardless of who they lose to, and that's Central Michigan.

Ohio and Buffalo, as you describe, are right near the cut line. (A third team, Miami of Ohio, isn't completely out of the bubble picture but most likely needs to win the tournament.)

Creme currently has Buffalo and Ohio as 2 of the last 3 teams in, sandwiching Tennessee, but of course this doesn't mean the committee would agree. It's not at all clear that either or both would get an at-large if they lose in the MAC tournament, or how much they'd have to do in the MAC tournament for an at-large.

If Central Michigan wins the MAC tournament, it's possible the MAC could get only one bid, with Ohio and Buffalo just missing the cut. Or it could get 2 or 3 bids, with one or the other just getting in.

If CMU loses in the MAC tournament, and Ohio and Buffalo also lose, anywhere from 2 to 4 teams will get in. Perhaps the best-case scenario for the possibility of 4 MAC bids is the following:
-- Buffalo beats CMU in the first semifinal.
-- Miami OH beats Ohio in the second semifinal.
-- Miami OH beats Buffalo in the final.
 
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How is Syracuse #3 and Oregon State #4 in Albany, when Syracuse is #15 and Oregon State is #11 in the AP Poll?
 

vowelguy

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In the last committee rankings,
Oregon St was #11
Syracuse was #15

Since then, OSU lost to non-tourney Washington while Syracuse beat then-#13 Miami.
Creme is speculating that Syracuse will move up from #15 to #12, with OSU falling from #11 to #13. Not unreasonable. Tho not what I would do.

But the fact is that #11-16 is pretty messy. Almost any combination is plausible.
#11-13 all lost their opening conf tourney games, two in fairly big upsets
The Top 16
 
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In the last committee rankings,
Oregon St was #11
Syracuse was #15

Since then, OSU lost to non-tourney Washington while Syracuse beat then-#13 Miami.
Creme is speculating that Syracuse will move up from #15 to #12, with OSU falling from #11 to #13. Not unreasonable. Tho not what I would do.

But the fact is that #11-16 is pretty messy. Almost any combination is plausible.
#11-13 all lost their opening conf tourney games, two in fairly big upsets
The Top 16
He apparently has Miami now at #11 and Syracuse at #12. If those two were flipped, then Syracuse couldn't be a #3 seed in the same region as #2 seed Louisville. (I still question that Louisville will be a #2 seed, but that's another debate...).

I could swear that on TV, right after Syracuse beat Miami and SC lost to Arkansas, he said Syracuse would move all the way up to #11, but he must have backed off from that.

Here are my predictions for 11-16:
11. Miami
12. Syracuse
13. Oregon St
14. South Carolina
15. Iowa St
16. Texas A&M
 
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I think Arkansas has an uphill battle still. I'm just praying the committee doesnt have Creme's optimism for Tennessee otherwise Holly 100% comes back next year.
Tennessee still has an athletic team. If they had the fortitude to press for a lot of their 40 minutes and did their run and gun, the Vols could sneak in and be a handful. I know, that's a lot of if's.
 
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He apparently has Miami now at #11 and Syracuse at #12. If those two were flipped, then Syracuse couldn't be a #3 seed in the same region as #2 seed Louisville. (I still question that Louisville will be a #2 seed, but that's another debate...).

I could swear that on TV, right after Syracuse beat Miami and SC lost to Arkansas, he said Syracuse would move all the way up to #11, but he must have backed off from that.

Here are my predictions for 11-16:
11. Miami
12. Syracuse
13. Oregon St
14. South Carolina
15. Iowa St
16. Texas A&M
OSU losing to UW should definitely drop OSU to #4 seed. The loss to UW was a "bad" loss. Everyone involved with OSU WCBB on that evening failed big time. The OSU coaching staff was subpar with their in game player substitutions, OSU's shooters (minus Pivec and Slocum) couldn't hit the broadside of a barn, and, team defense was abysmal. Other than that, OSU was terrific. OSU also lost in the 1st round of the PAC-12 Tournament last year, and made it to the Elite 8 game. I'm not suggesting that will happen this year, but OSU coaching staff has a good long break to get the team right.
 

vowelguy

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OSU losing to UW should definitely drop OSU to #4 seed. The loss to UW was a "bad" loss.
If you move someone down, you've got to move someone up. And that 11-16 is complicated.
Other than Miami, Ore St's quality wins are easily better than the others.

Looking at this right now, I'd go with Miami, Ore St, Cuse, SoCar, Iowa St, TAMu

ORE ST
Bad losses = Washington
Other L to non-top16 teams: Ariz St (x2)
Top 16 wins: So Carolina, Oregon
vs Top16: 2-4

SOCAR
Non-64 losses = Arkansas
Other L to non-top16: Kentucky, Drake
Top 16 wins: Tx A&M
vs Top 16: 1-6

SYRACUSE
Non-64 losses = GaTech, Minnesota
Top 16 wins = Miami
vs Top 16: 1-6

MIAMI
Non-64 losses = Purdue, VaTech
Other L to non-top16 = C Michigan, Clemson, Fla St
Top 16 wins: ND, Lou, Syracuse
vs Top 16: 3-3

IOWA ST
Non-64 losses = TCU, WVa
Other L to non-top16 = Texas, So Dakota
Top 16 wins: Miami
vs Top 16: 1-4

TAMU
Non-64 losses = Arkansas, LSU, Lamar
Other L to non-top16 = Mizzou
Top 16 wins: Ore St
vs Top 16: 1-3


"Non-64" = Not in Creme's bracket. Because I had to pick a standard.
 

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