Bracketology 3/5/23

[BRS24]

"Three weeks ago, Virginia Tech wasn't even in the conversation for a No. 1 seed. The Hokies were fighting for a top-three spot in the ACC and hadn't even reached the most difficult part of their schedule. Taking on that schedule head on, Virginia Tech won every one of those games and has now won 11 in a row following Sunday's ACC championship victory over Louisville. The Hokies are the hottest team in the country not named South Carolina and now occupy the same seed line as the Gamecocks. One caveat that will determine whether Virginia Tech is a No. 1 on Selection Sunday: How the committee views the Hokies' relatively weak nonconference schedule. They played six teams outside of the NET 230, and their nonconference schedule ranks 129th overall. Iowa and Maryland, Virginia Tech's chief competitors for a 1-seed, both have top-10-rated schedules."

So he flip flopped VA Tech and MD, and that's it? There are a bunch of teams that are still in top 16 that I'm not seeing, but maybe seeds 5-8 don't bring much clarity? Someone please talk me into Indiana and Stanford, along with ND staying at #3?

 

[Aluminny69]

I saw a graphic listing UConn as having the most top 25 wins ( or games, not sure) with 10. A couple teams had nine. That should carry some weight.

 

[VA Huskie]

He may not have direct input but he’s been doing this long enough for his opinions to carry some weight. There’s little doubt that his opinions can and do influence the people that actually set the field. Not saying that’s necessarily bad but it could be if he were deliberately underrating (or overrating) certain teams. I’m not saying he does that of course, merely pointing out that he does imo have some influence on the bracket!

What evidence do you have that his opinions carry weight with the committee?

 

[Plebe]

You’re cherry picking. According to Massey Baylor SOS :
2014-32
2015-31
2016-36
2017-39
2018-27
2019-8 way to go Mulkey
2020-44

Your statement to which I responded was: "Even when she had the best player in the country she played a cupcake OOC schedule."

So yes, I'm cherry picking a year when she had Griner, who is the player I assume you're referencing.

Which Baylor player(s) in 2014-2020 were the best in the country? I must be forgetting them.

 

[toadfoot]

Your statement to which I responded was: "Even when she had the best player in the country she played a cupcake OOC schedule."

So yes, I'm cherry picking a year when she had Griner, who is the player I assume you're referencing.

Which Baylor player(s) in 2014-2020 were the best in the country? I must be forgetting them.

So when she had the best player she’d play tough OOC schedule otherwise cupcakes. Got it.

 

[Drew8]

I think a lot of teams could claim to be seeded 2-9 and how the committee sorts it out will be important.

I would use 3 main starting points.

1. S.C is a lock as the 1 seed
2. Put Stanford and UCONN on the other side of the bracket in their home regions. (Based on being the only teams that seemed to give S.C. a challenge this season as well as being the only top seeds with some recent NCAA tournament pedigree.)
3. Sort the rest out through geography, different conferences facing each other, and based on who won regular season and tournament championships.

I knocked Notre Dame and Duke out of conversation due to the unfortunate luck of the Miles and Mabrey injuries and the effects of the infamous FSU game (using a men's basketball controversy) whose repercussions cost Duke the regular season ACC title and put them on the side of the bracket with the two teams not named UCONN that beat them this year (North Carolina, and Virginia Tech). Coach Lawson did say that could cost them a seed when it happened.

9. LSU (neither won the regular season title nor conference title, blown out by S.C., No wins over top 25 teams, though not having any bad losses is impressive in a season like this). Could bump them down to 10th so they aren't in same bracket as SEC colleague South Carolina)

8. MARYLAND (neither Big 10 regular season or conference champ, blown out by S.C, losses to DePaul and Nebraska, narrow win over UCONN was without Azzi, Nika, and Dorka, though buzzer beating win over Notre Dame was nice and win over Baylor has some merit).

7. IOWA (Big 10 tourney champs, good in conference record, Interconference play not great (Loss to UCONN, Kansas State, N.C. State and only good win was over Iowa State, also questionable loss to Illinois).

6. UCONN (Big east regular season champs + tournament champs?, Competed with S.C. even without Azzi and Caroline, 8-0 with Azzi Fudd that included wins over the top teams in the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 as well as their "Azziless" win over a top SEC team and domination through the majority of the season, coming off a great track record in NCAA tournament. questionable losses to St. John's and Marquette (both had fallen out of their Top 25 ranking), injury plagued losses to top seeded Notre Dame and Maryland.

5. UTAH (Co PAC 12 Regular Season Champion, good record in a seemingly deep PAC 12 including a win over Stanford and quality interconference win over Oklahoma)

4. VIRGINIA TECH (ACC tourney Champs, Just appear to be playing quality basketball down the stretch though Notre Dame and Duke's misfortunes helped their case while the rest of the conference seems unproven this year in interconference play).

3. INDIANA (Big 10 regular season champs, good record most of year before close losses to Iowa and Ohio State, Good interconference wins over Tennessee, and North Carolina, only bad loss to Michigan State).

2. STANFORD (Co PAC-12 regular season champs, competed with South Carolina, pretty good record in a seemingly deep PAC-12, coming off great track record in NCAA tournament).

1. SOUTH CAROLINA (no need to say more)


Note: While I think that S.C., Stanford and UCONN are the most proven teams I think this draw works overall in terms of geography, playing different conferences and rewarding champions while also perhaps not unfairly threatening South Carolina, Stanford or UConn's title chances).

I guess that is my suggestion, though I am not denying personal biases.

 

[Drew8]

After looking at a map I could also go with;


Greenville A
1. S.C.
2. Vtech
3. Maryland

Seattle B

1. Utah
2. Iowa

Seattle A

1. Stanford
2. LSU

Greenville B

1. Indiana
2. UConn

With Greenville A and Seattle B on one side of the bracket and Seattle A and Greenville B on the other side.

 

[Notyetready]

I honestly don't understand how he still has Stanford as a 1 seed and UConn as a 3 seed:

• UConn has the #2 SOS, Stanford 3
• UConn is #3 in RPI, Stanford 4
• UConn #2 in NET, Stanford 4

UConn Record: 28 - 5
Stanford Record: 28 - 5

UConn is playing for their Conference Championship, Stanford was knocked out early.

Not to be a UConn homer, but the math is not mathing for me.

Agree, it's pretty mathed up.

 

[BRS24]

After the 3rd update yesterday, we get this:

"Three weeks ago, Virginia Tech wasn't even in the conversation for a No. 1 seed. The Hokies were fighting for a top-three spot in the ACC and hadn't even reached the most difficult part of their schedule. Taking on that schedule head on, Virginia Tech won every one of those games and has now won 11 in a row following Sunday's ACC championship over Louisville. The Hokies are the hottest team in the country not named South Carolina and now occupy the same seed line as the Gamecocks. One caveat that will determine whether Virginia Tech is a No. 1 on Selection Sunday: How the committee view the Hokies' relatively weak nonconference schedule. They played six teams outside of the NET 230 and their nonconference schedule ranks 129th overall. Iowa and Maryland, Virginia Tech's chief competitors for a 1-seed, both have top-10 rated schedules."

And nary a mention of UConn, but, whatever Charlie. Making this many statements about a team's poor NET, OOC schedule and keeping them a #1 seed is, well, illogical.

The significant changes might be below the top 16. After tonight's BET final, I would bet that UConn won't move an inch before his usual Tuesday update. Meh.

 

[BRS24]

And from Megan Gauer, my new fave twitter follow. She puts it all out there as to stats.

 

[socal613ws]

And from Megan Gauer, my new fave twitter follow. She puts it all out there as to stats.

yea most people are saying Stanford Vtech round up the last 2. Idk who the quad 2 loss was for UConn but that might end up being what hurts them. I assume it was to ST John's.

 

[Bone Dog]

And from Megan Gauer, my new fave twitter follow. She puts it all out there as to stats.

Megan has UConn as a solid 2 seed and maybe a 1. A good showing against Villanova should make the case. If we win by double digits I think we have to be at least the 3rd overall seed because we’ve already beaten Iowa handily without Dorka and showed we could contain Clark. My top line is SC, Va Tech, UConn and Iowa.

I think the best final (most competitive) would be a SC-UConn rematch. Second best would be a SC-Stanford rematch. Iowa and Va Tech have earned 1 seeds but are unlikely (imho) to be competitive with SC. The committee will be sensitive to this and put us at 2 or 3 overall, and Stanford at 6 or 7 to favor those outcomes.

An upset NC win by Iowa or Va Tech would be awesome for lots of reasons. Not the least would be the Cinderella story of Clark leading underwomanned Iowa to a championship over SC and winning the NPOY. That would be great for the game. Even a close loss to SC would be good press.

 

[HopJim]

I think a lot of teams could claim to be seeded 2-9 and how the committee sorts it out will be important.

I would use 3 main starting points.

1. S.C is a lock as the 1 seed
2. Put Stanford and UCONN on the other side of the bracket in their home regions. (Based on being the only teams that seemed to give S.C. a challenge this season as well as being the only top seeds with some recent NCAA tournament pedigree.)
3. Sort the rest out through geography, different conferences facing each other, and based on who won regular season and tournament championships.

I knocked Notre Dame and Duke out of conversation due to the unfortunate luck of the Miles and Mabrey injuries and the effects of the infamous FSU game (using a men's basketball controversy) whose repercussions cost Duke the regular season ACC title and put them on the side of the bracket with the two teams not named UCONN that beat them this year (North Carolina, and Virginia Tech). Coach Lawson did say that could cost them a seed when it happened.

9. LSU (neither won the regular season title nor conference title, blown out by S.C., No wins over top 25 teams, though not having any bad losses is impressive in a season like this). Could bump them down to 10th so they aren't in same bracket as SEC colleague South Carolina)

8. MARYLAND (neither Big 10 regular season or conference champ, blown out by S.C, losses to DePaul and Nebraska, narrow win over UCONN was without Azzi, Nika, and Dorka, though buzzer beating win over Notre Dame was nice and win over Baylor has some merit).

7. IOWA (Big 10 tourney champs, good in conference record, Interconference play not great (Loss to UCONN, Kansas State, N.C. State and only good win was over Iowa State, also questionable loss to Illinois).

6. UCONN (Big east regular season champs + tournament champs?, Competed with S.C. even without Azzi and Caroline, 8-0 with Azzi Fudd that included wins over the top teams in the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 as well as their "Azziless" win over a top SEC team and domination through the majority of the season, coming off a great track record in NCAA tournament. questionable losses to St. John's and Marquette (both had fallen out of their Top 25 ranking), injury plagued losses to top seeded Notre Dame and Maryland.

5. UTAH (Co PAC 12 Regular Season Champion, good record in a seemingly deep PAC 12 including a win over Stanford and quality interconference win over Oklahoma)

4. VIRGINIA TECH (ACC tourney Champs, Just appear to be playing quality basketball down the stretch though Notre Dame and Duke's misfortunes helped their case while the rest of the conference seems unproven this year in interconference play).

3. INDIANA (Big 10 regular season champs, good record most of year before close losses to Iowa and Ohio State, Good interconference wins over Tennessee, and North Carolina, only bad loss to Michigan State).

2. STANFORD (Co PAC-12 regular season champs, competed with South Carolina, pretty good record in a seemingly deep PAC-12, coming off great track record in NCAA tournament).

1. SOUTH CAROLINA (no need to say more)


Note: While I think that S.C., Stanford and UCONN are the most proven teams I think this draw works overall in terms of geography, playing different conferences and rewarding champions while also perhaps not unfairly threatening South Carolina, Stanford or UConn's title chances).

I guess that is my suggestion, though I am not denying personal biases.

While I am not buying Virginia Tech, well thought out assessment.

 

[socal613ws]

Megan has UConn as a solid 2 seed and maybe a 1. A good showing against Villanova should make the case. If we win by double digits I think we have to be at least the 3rd overall seed because we’ve already beaten Iowa handily without Dorka and showed we could contain Clark. My top line is SC, Va Tech, UConn and Iowa.

I think the best final (most competitive) would be a SC-UConn rematch. Second best would be a SC-Stanford rematch. Iowa and Va Tech have earned 1 seeds but are unlikely (imho) to be competitive with SC. The committee will be sensitive to this and put us at 2 or 3 overall, and Stanford at 6 or 7 to favor those outcomes.

An upset NC win by Iowa or Va Tech would be awesome for lots of reasons. Not the least would be the Cinderella story of Clark leading underwomanned Iowa to a championship over SC and winning the NPOY. That would be great for the game. Even a close loss to SC would be good press.

this game is irrelevant to a 1 seed, at best its a 2 for Uconn but too many loses to get a 1 at this point. Esp when the h2h with Maryland was lost.

 

[BRS24]

CC's "thoughts" on #1 seeds:

• Iowa's dismantling of Ohio State in the Big Ten final might have been the weekend's most eye-popping event, and the Hawkeyes are now knocking on the door of a No. 1 seed.
• The Big 12 will have plenty to say about how the bracket settles.
• South Carolina and Indiana are locks, but Stanford, Virginia Tech and Iowa are competing for the final two spots.
• The Hokies and Hawkeyes just won conference tournament titles. Stanford is the only one with a regular-season championship.

WHAT ABOUT UConn, Charlie?? (said in my best Molly Ringwald "What about prom, Blane" voice)

It took almost the whole article before mentioning UConn, and it was in respect to injuries. No mention of NET or SOS for us. Just the injuries. Listen, there are way more experts on this board that understand NET, SOS, S-curve, and all the other stats that are used to decide seeding, but the fact that he's not mentioning that we've had two fairly dominant games in the BET, the last of which was a complete turn around from when Marquette beat us? I would love Megan Gauer or anyone else that does bracket analyses, to question him directly about his bias and disregard for UConn. Won't happen, but man, I'd love to see someone "Jon Stewart" him.

I actually enjoy upsets, however when factors are not applied equally to teams, and therefore impacting the seeding, it makes the whole thing farcical.

These four things will most impact the women's NCAA bracket before Selection Sunday

As the debate over No. 1 seeds rages on, the Big 12, the availability of injured players and mid-majors that might shrink the bubble will continue to shape the bracket.

www.espn.com

 

[SLY63]

As much as I think Charlie is smoking something, the teams that scare me are SC, Stanford and Indiana, and I would take his bracket (Va Tech 1, Iowa 2, UConn 3). I've never seen them play (so I am speaking out of ignorance), but I think we would have no issue with Va Tech (or Utah).

 

[BRS24]

Not bad for a 3-seed.

(Shown on ESPN during the Louisville/VA Tech game.)

**EDIT: Just realized the three teams beneath UConn are projected 1-seeds. The jokes write themselves.

View attachment 84705

And this:

 

[Cornell Lt]

I saw a graphic listing UConn as having the most top 25 wins ( or games, not sure) with 10. A couple teams had nine. That should carry some weight.

That was teams ranked in the top 25 of the NET rankings

 

[hoopsnloops32]

this game is irrelevant to a 1 seed, at best its a 2 for Uconn but too many loses to get a 1 at this point. Esp when the h2h with Maryland was lost.

How you figure when other one seeds have as many or more losses?

 

[Mike72fl]

I want them to seed UConn as low as possible. It would make Geno and his players so mad that they would crush all the teams on its way to the final 4. As I mentioned, there are regular season games and there are games in March/April.

 

[Bone Dog]

this game is irrelevant to a 1 seed, at best its a 2 for Uconn but too many loses to get a 1 at this point. Esp when the h2h with Maryland was lost.

I think Megan and I will just have to agree to disagree with you. We suspect the committee will see that we lost a close game to MD playing without Azzi, Nika and Dorka and starting our 4th string pg. They may also notice that we beat Iowa handily without Dorka.

 

[bballnut90]

With 2 regional sites, is the S-curve still based on geography or is it set up based on seeding/ranking where the top #1 plays the weakest #2?

 

[socal613ws]

How you figure when other one seeds have as many or more losses?

because Indiana lost to a top 10 team and a top 20 team we now think they're not a 1? Because Stanford lost to a top 20 team they're not a 1 now? Compare that to losing at home to St John's and at Marquette, 2 teams that might not even get in the tournament it's pretty obvious.