Bracketology 3/5/23 | Page 3 | The Boneyard

Bracketology 3/5/23

Based on NET - the committee's on special ranking - and on 'state of team' as in team injures and injured players returning Uconn if they win has a good shot at being a #1 seed.

Iowa with an impressive first half shooting 70/60/87 - but ... OSU was a different team in the second half against Indiana overcoming a 20 point deficit. Iowa with a 37 point lead and a wake up call from yesterday is probably a hill too far.
 
Bone Dog said:
I don’t think Kim has anything to apologize for. She put her team in a good position for the post season.

I still remember what Adia Barnes did to get Arizona ready for the tournament two years ago: feeding her team a steady diet of claiming they’d been dismissed by the world. That chip on their shoulders carried them to the NC game that year.
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The strategy has been sustainable by one coach over a long career I'm not sure there's any evidence it's sustainable for the other
 
VA Huskie said:
I still don’t get the Creme bashing. He’s using the rules/guidelines that the Committee uses to try and project what they will eventually do. I don’t think he’s for or against any particular team. I think the Committee will take into account the players we were missing in our losses, as well as how we look with a full complement of this year’s roster.

If we end up as a 2 or 3 seed, I sure wouldn’t want to be the higher seeds in our region.
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Because he’s not using the rules or guidelines. Our blind resume is better than almost everyone we are competing with for a 1 seed. We are number 2 in NET, have the most top 25 NET wins. Number 1 sos and the same amount of losses. That’s a one seed resume this year, not even taking into account player injuries and he has us as a three seed. It’s absurd.
 
Rowdy831 said:
Stanford has three bad losses and several close calls. They aren't even close to a 1 seed.
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I honestly don't understand how he still has Stanford as a 1 seed and UConn as a 3 seed:
  • UConn has the #2 SOS, Stanford 3
  • UConn is #3 in RPI, Stanford 4
  • UConn #2 in NET, Stanford 4

UConn Record: 28 - 5
Stanford Record: 28 - 5

UConn is playing for their Conference Championship, Stanford was knocked out early.

Not to be a UConn homer, but the math is not mathing for me.
 
DefenseBB said:
Because he is the messenger and people want to shoot the messenger when bad news is delivered.
As much as many have tried to inform our fellow BYers that Charlie is just reviewing the metrics (NET, Conference success, injuries) that THE NCAA COMMITTEE will use and tries to predict who makes tournamen what seeding will occur to inject excitement and dialogue. HE IS NOT THE BAD GUY HERE. UConn hurt themselves by losing to 2 unranked tems this year including 1 at home who isn’t going to make the NCAAT. Those are not “good” losses. Now compare that to the losses Stanford and Indiana had to RANKED and very good NET teams In their Conference tournaments. For UConn to be in any discussion for a #1 they need resounding victories today against Marquette (NET 39) and tomorrow with tomorrow being against a ranked Villanova With a 12 NET. Just beating Creighton (NET 17) might not be enough to get it done.

So enough of the pointed criticism at Creme, he does not have any input!
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He may not have direct input but he’s been doing this long enough for his opinions to carry some weight. There’s little doubt that his opinions can and do influence the people that actually set the field. Not saying that’s necessarily bad but it could be if he were deliberately underrating (or overrating) certain teams. I’m not saying he does that of course, merely pointing out that he does imo have some influence on the bracket!
 
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toadfoot said:
That may well be but it doesn’t explain Baylor’s weak OOC when they were considered
the favorite to win the National Championship with Griner. She has a history as a coach.
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I think it’s pretty clear Kim simply does not consider a weak schedule to be that big of a negative.
 
Plebe said:
This is not factually accurate. In 2013 Baylor had the #1 overall SOS and the #2 overall nonconference SOS.
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wedding crashers comedy GIF
 
CTGirl15 said:
I honestly don't understand how he still has Stanford as a 1 seed and UConn as a 3 seed:
  • UConn has the #2 SOS, Stanford 3
  • UConn is #3 in RPI, Stanford 4
  • UConn #2 in NET, Stanford 4

UConn Record: 28 - 5
Stanford Record: 28 - 5

UConn is playing for their Conference Championship, Stanford was knocked out early.

Not to be a UConn homer, but the math is not mathing for me.
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I don't think UCONN is a #1 but I'm not seeing how Stanford is seemingly a lock as the 3rd #1 seed. For the most part, neither squad has played well down the stretch.
 
SweatinIt said:
The focus needs to be on the NCAA Committee Top 16 Reveal which the last one was on February 23rd which included UCONN's loss to St John. In that reveal, we were #7. Looking at that list, every team except SC lost and lost early in their tournament. If UCONN wins tomorrow, they should move up to a #1 seed. Creme de la creme means nothing but adding fodder for us to talk about. Stay tuned.....tomorrow!

Top 16 in-season rankings​

Second reveal (through games Wednesday, Feb. 22)​

1. South Carolina (No. 1 seed — Greenville Region)
2. Indiana (No. 1 seed — Greenville Region)
3. Stanford (No. 1 seed — Seattle Region)
4. Utah (No. 1 seed — Seattle Region)
5. LSU
6. Maryland
7. UConn
8. Virginia Tech
9. Iowa
10. Notre Dame
11. Duke
12. Ohio State
13. Texas
14. Villanova
15. Arizona
16. Michigan
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Win quality matters too though. Iowa knocking off Indiana, Maryland and Ohio State down the stretch is worth more than UCONN beating DePaul/Xavier/Georgetown/Marquette. And Virginia Tech has nice wins over Duke/UNC/Louisville to close it out. Lots of gray area. SC/Indiana seem like the only surefire top 2 seeds at this point.
 
Having trouble with Virginia Tech, losers to two unranked teams, Miami and Clemson, being a #1 seed (or a high #2 seed for that matter). Ok schedule, but played 2nd tier teams like Bucknell, High Point, and Longwood. Few top 20 teams. I normally try to see both sides to seeding decisions but this one is a head scratcher.
 
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Plebe said:
This is not factually accurate. In 2013 Baylor had the #1 overall SOS and the #2 overall nonconference SOS.
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You’re cherry picking. According to Massey Baylor SOS :
2014-32
2015-31
2016-36
2017-39
2018-27
2019-8 way to go Mulkey
2020-44
 
Bone Dog said:
Charlie Creme on the Iowa-tOSU halftime show: he’s sticking with Stanford and Va Tech on the one line.
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This Creme is a joke ... to me.
 
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bballnut90 said:
I don't think UCONN is a #1 but I'm not seeing how Stanford is seemingly a lock as the 3rd #1 seed. For the most part, neither squad has played well down the stretch.
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This. I truly don’t understand why Stanford is considered a lock as a 1
 
"Three weeks ago, Virginia Tech wasn't even in the conversation for a No. 1 seed. The Hokies were fighting for a top-three spot in the ACC and hadn't even reached the most difficult part of their schedule. Taking on that schedule head on, Virginia Tech won every one of those games and has now won 11 in a row following Sunday's ACC championship victory over Louisville. The Hokies are the hottest team in the country not named South Carolina and now occupy the same seed line as the Gamecocks. One caveat that will determine whether Virginia Tech is a No. 1 on Selection Sunday: How the committee views the Hokies' relatively weak nonconference schedule. They played six teams outside of the NET 230, and their nonconference schedule ranks 129th overall. Iowa and Maryland, Virginia Tech's chief competitors for a 1-seed, both have top-10-rated schedules."

So he flip flopped VA Tech and MD, and that's it? There are a bunch of teams that are still in top 16 that I'm not seeing, but maybe seeds 5-8 don't bring much clarity? Someone please talk me into Indiana and Stanford, along with ND staying at #3?

1678069426834.png
 
I saw a graphic listing UConn as having the most top 25 wins ( or games, not sure) with 10. A couple teams had nine. That should carry some weight.
 
Cuango said:
He may not have direct input but he’s been doing this long enough for his opinions to carry some weight. There’s little doubt that his opinions can and do influence the people that actually set the field. Not saying that’s necessarily bad but it could be if he were deliberately underrating (or overrating) certain teams. I’m not saying he does that of course, merely pointing out that he does imo have some influence on the bracket!
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What evidence do you have that his opinions carry weight with the committee?
 
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toadfoot said:
You’re cherry picking. According to Massey Baylor SOS :
2014-32
2015-31
2016-36
2017-39
2018-27
2019-8 way to go Mulkey
2020-44
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Your statement to which I responded was: "Even when she had the best player in the country she played a cupcake OOC schedule."

So yes, I'm cherry picking a year when she had Griner, who is the player I assume you're referencing.

Which Baylor player(s) in 2014-2020 were the best in the country? I must be forgetting them.
 
Plebe said:
Your statement to which I responded was: "Even when she had the best player in the country she played a cupcake OOC schedule."

So yes, I'm cherry picking a year when she had Griner, who is the player I assume you're referencing.

Which Baylor player(s) in 2014-2020 were the best in the country? I must be forgetting them.
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So when she had the best player she’d play tough OOC schedule otherwise cupcakes. Got it.
 
I think a lot of teams could claim to be seeded 2-9 and how the committee sorts it out will be important.

I would use 3 main starting points.

1. S.C is a lock as the 1 seed
2. Put Stanford and UCONN on the other side of the bracket in their home regions. (Based on being the only teams that seemed to give S.C. a challenge this season as well as being the only top seeds with some recent NCAA tournament pedigree.)
3. Sort the rest out through geography, different conferences facing each other, and based on who won regular season and tournament championships.

I knocked Notre Dame and Duke out of conversation due to the unfortunate luck of the Miles and Mabrey injuries and the effects of the infamous FSU game (using a men's basketball controversy) whose repercussions cost Duke the regular season ACC title and put them on the side of the bracket with the two teams not named UCONN that beat them this year (North Carolina, and Virginia Tech). Coach Lawson did say that could cost them a seed when it happened.

9. LSU (neither won the regular season title nor conference title, blown out by S.C., No wins over top 25 teams, though not having any bad losses is impressive in a season like this). Could bump them down to 10th so they aren't in same bracket as SEC colleague South Carolina)

8. MARYLAND (neither Big 10 regular season or conference champ, blown out by S.C, losses to DePaul and Nebraska, narrow win over UCONN was without Azzi, Nika, and Dorka, though buzzer beating win over Notre Dame was nice and win over Baylor has some merit).

7. IOWA (Big 10 tourney champs, good in conference record, Interconference play not great (Loss to UCONN, Kansas State, N.C. State and only good win was over Iowa State, also questionable loss to Illinois).

6. UCONN (Big east regular season champs + tournament champs?, Competed with S.C. even without Azzi and Caroline, 8-0 with Azzi Fudd that included wins over the top teams in the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 as well as their "Azziless" win over a top SEC team and domination through the majority of the season, coming off a great track record in NCAA tournament. questionable losses to St. John's and Marquette (both had fallen out of their Top 25 ranking), injury plagued losses to top seeded Notre Dame and Maryland.

5. UTAH (Co PAC 12 Regular Season Champion, good record in a seemingly deep PAC 12 including a win over Stanford and quality interconference win over Oklahoma)

4. VIRGINIA TECH (ACC tourney Champs, Just appear to be playing quality basketball down the stretch though Notre Dame and Duke's misfortunes helped their case while the rest of the conference seems unproven this year in interconference play).

3. INDIANA (Big 10 regular season champs, good record most of year before close losses to Iowa and Ohio State, Good interconference wins over Tennessee, and North Carolina, only bad loss to Michigan State).

2. STANFORD (Co PAC-12 regular season champs, competed with South Carolina, pretty good record in a seemingly deep PAC-12, coming off great track record in NCAA tournament).

1. SOUTH CAROLINA (no need to say more)


Note: While I think that S.C., Stanford and UCONN are the most proven teams I think this draw works overall in terms of geography, playing different conferences and rewarding champions while also perhaps not unfairly threatening South Carolina, Stanford or UConn's title chances).

I guess that is my suggestion, though I am not denying personal biases.
 
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After looking at a map I could also go with;


Greenville A
1. S.C.
2. Vtech
3. Maryland

Seattle B

1. Utah
2. Iowa

Seattle A

1. Stanford
2. LSU

Greenville B

1. Indiana
2. UConn

With Greenville A and Seattle B on one side of the bracket and Seattle A and Greenville B on the other side.
 
CTGirl15 said:
I honestly don't understand how he still has Stanford as a 1 seed and UConn as a 3 seed:
  • UConn has the #2 SOS, Stanford 3
  • UConn is #3 in RPI, Stanford 4
  • UConn #2 in NET, Stanford 4

UConn Record: 28 - 5
Stanford Record: 28 - 5

UConn is playing for their Conference Championship, Stanford was knocked out early.

Not to be a UConn homer, but the math is not mathing for me.
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Agree, it's pretty mathed up.
 
After the 3rd update yesterday, we get this:

"Three weeks ago, Virginia Tech wasn't even in the conversation for a No. 1 seed. The Hokies were fighting for a top-three spot in the ACC and hadn't even reached the most difficult part of their schedule. Taking on that schedule head on, Virginia Tech won every one of those games and has now won 11 in a row following Sunday's ACC championship over Louisville. The Hokies are the hottest team in the country not named South Carolina and now occupy the same seed line as the Gamecocks. One caveat that will determine whether Virginia Tech is a No. 1 on Selection Sunday: How the committee view the Hokies' relatively weak nonconference schedule. They played six teams outside of the NET 230 and their nonconference schedule ranks 129th overall. Iowa and Maryland, Virginia Tech's chief competitors for a 1-seed, both have top-10 rated schedules."

And nary a mention of UConn, but, whatever Charlie. Making this many statements about a team's poor NET, OOC schedule and keeping them a #1 seed is, well, illogical.

The significant changes might be below the top 16. After tonight's BET final, I would bet that UConn won't move an inch before his usual Tuesday update. Meh.
 
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BRS24 said:
And from Megan Gauer, my new fave twitter follow. She puts it all out there as to stats.
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yea most people are saying Stanford Vtech round up the last 2. Idk who the quad 2 loss was for UConn but that might end up being what hurts them. I assume it was to ST John's.
 
BRS24 said:
And from Megan Gauer, my new fave twitter follow. She puts it all out there as to stats.
Expand ...

Megan has UConn as a solid 2 seed and maybe a 1. A good showing against Villanova should make the case. If we win by double digits I think we have to be at least the 3rd overall seed because we’ve already beaten Iowa handily without Dorka and showed we could contain Clark. My top line is SC, Va Tech, UConn and Iowa.

I think the best final (most competitive) would be a SC-UConn rematch. Second best would be a SC-Stanford rematch. Iowa and Va Tech have earned 1 seeds but are unlikely (imho) to be competitive with SC. The committee will be sensitive to this and put us at 2 or 3 overall, and Stanford at 6 or 7 to favor those outcomes.

An upset NC win by Iowa or Va Tech would be awesome for lots of reasons. Not the least would be the Cinderella story of Clark leading underwomanned Iowa to a championship over SC and winning the NPOY. That would be great for the game. Even a close loss to SC would be good press.
 
Drew8 said:
I think a lot of teams could claim to be seeded 2-9 and how the committee sorts it out will be important.

I would use 3 main starting points.

1. S.C is a lock as the 1 seed
2. Put Stanford and UCONN on the other side of the bracket in their home regions. (Based on being the only teams that seemed to give S.C. a challenge this season as well as being the only top seeds with some recent NCAA tournament pedigree.)
3. Sort the rest out through geography, different conferences facing each other, and based on who won regular season and tournament championships.

I knocked Notre Dame and Duke out of conversation due to the unfortunate luck of the Miles and Mabrey injuries and the effects of the infamous FSU game (using a men's basketball controversy) whose repercussions cost Duke the regular season ACC title and put them on the side of the bracket with the two teams not named UCONN that beat them this year (North Carolina, and Virginia Tech). Coach Lawson did say that could cost them a seed when it happened.

9. LSU (neither won the regular season title nor conference title, blown out by S.C., No wins over top 25 teams, though not having any bad losses is impressive in a season like this). Could bump them down to 10th so they aren't in same bracket as SEC colleague South Carolina)

8. MARYLAND (neither Big 10 regular season or conference champ, blown out by S.C, losses to DePaul and Nebraska, narrow win over UCONN was without Azzi, Nika, and Dorka, though buzzer beating win over Notre Dame was nice and win over Baylor has some merit).

7. IOWA (Big 10 tourney champs, good in conference record, Interconference play not great (Loss to UCONN, Kansas State, N.C. State and only good win was over Iowa State, also questionable loss to Illinois).

6. UCONN (Big east regular season champs + tournament champs?, Competed with S.C. even without Azzi and Caroline, 8-0 with Azzi Fudd that included wins over the top teams in the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 as well as their "Azziless" win over a top SEC team and domination through the majority of the season, coming off a great track record in NCAA tournament. questionable losses to St. John's and Marquette (both had fallen out of their Top 25 ranking), injury plagued losses to top seeded Notre Dame and Maryland.

5. UTAH (Co PAC 12 Regular Season Champion, good record in a seemingly deep PAC 12 including a win over Stanford and quality interconference win over Oklahoma)

4. VIRGINIA TECH (ACC tourney Champs, Just appear to be playing quality basketball down the stretch though Notre Dame and Duke's misfortunes helped their case while the rest of the conference seems unproven this year in interconference play).

3. INDIANA (Big 10 regular season champs, good record most of year before close losses to Iowa and Ohio State, Good interconference wins over Tennessee, and North Carolina, only bad loss to Michigan State).

2. STANFORD (Co PAC-12 regular season champs, competed with South Carolina, pretty good record in a seemingly deep PAC-12, coming off great track record in NCAA tournament).

1. SOUTH CAROLINA (no need to say more)


Note: While I think that S.C., Stanford and UCONN are the most proven teams I think this draw works overall in terms of geography, playing different conferences and rewarding champions while also perhaps not unfairly threatening South Carolina, Stanford or UConn's title chances).

I guess that is my suggestion, though I am not denying personal biases.
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While I am not buying Virginia Tech, well thought out assessment.
 
Bone Dog said:
Megan has UConn as a solid 2 seed and maybe a 1. A good showing against Villanova should make the case. If we win by double digits I think we have to be at least the 3rd overall seed because we’ve already beaten Iowa handily without Dorka and showed we could contain Clark. My top line is SC, Va Tech, UConn and Iowa.

I think the best final (most competitive) would be a SC-UConn rematch. Second best would be a SC-Stanford rematch. Iowa and Va Tech have earned 1 seeds but are unlikely (imho) to be competitive with SC. The committee will be sensitive to this and put us at 2 or 3 overall, and Stanford at 6 or 7 to favor those outcomes.

An upset NC win by Iowa or Va Tech would be awesome for lots of reasons. Not the least would be the Cinderella story of Clark leading underwomanned Iowa to a championship over SC and winning the NPOY. That would be great for the game. Even a close loss to SC would be good press.
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this game is irrelevant to a 1 seed, at best its a 2 for Uconn but too many loses to get a 1 at this point. Esp when the h2h with Maryland was lost.
 
CC's "thoughts" on #1 seeds:
  • Iowa's dismantling of Ohio State in the Big Ten final might have been the weekend's most eye-popping event, and the Hawkeyes are now knocking on the door of a No. 1 seed.
  • The Big 12 will have plenty to say about how the bracket settles.
  • South Carolina and Indiana are locks, but Stanford, Virginia Tech and Iowa are competing for the final two spots.
  • The Hokies and Hawkeyes just won conference tournament titles. Stanford is the only one with a regular-season championship.
WHAT ABOUT UConn, Charlie?? (said in my best Molly Ringwald "What about prom, Blane" voice)

It took almost the whole article before mentioning UConn, and it was in respect to injuries. No mention of NET or SOS for us. Just the injuries. Listen, there are way more experts on this board that understand NET, SOS, S-curve, and all the other stats that are used to decide seeding, but the fact that he's not mentioning that we've had two fairly dominant games in the BET, the last of which was a complete turn around from when Marquette beat us? I would love Megan Gauer or anyone else that does bracket analyses, to question him directly about his bias and disregard for UConn. Won't happen, but man, I'd love to see someone "Jon Stewart" him.

I actually enjoy upsets, however when factors are not applied equally to teams, and therefore impacting the seeding, it makes the whole thing farcical.

www.espn.com

These four things will most impact the women's NCAA bracket before Selection Sunday

As the debate over No. 1 seeds rages on, the Big 12, the availability of injured players and mid-majors that might shrink the bubble will continue to shape the bracket.
www.espn.com www.espn.com
 
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