Bracketology 1/28 | Page 2 | The Boneyard

Bracketology 1/28

DefenseBB said:
As Frankie says R E L A X, ND will win out, win the ACC Tournament and be the #1 seed in Chicago.
To me, the PAC12 has a #1 seed problem as they potentially could cannibalize themselves all into #2 and #3 seeds which would elevate MSU to a #1.

Baylor is a lock at #1 as only Texas is left on their schedule.
UConn has Louisville on the road and SC at home. They win Thursday and they are a lock for #1
Oregon wins both the regular season and PAC12 Tournament, they get #1 seed
ND shares ACC regular season and wins ACC Tournament #1
If Stanford wins Season crown and Tournament they get#1 seed
However if Oregon/Stanford/OSU/Utah split the PAC12 season and tournament titles, they all become 2/3 seeds.
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I sure hope You’re right about ND.
 
I think it's just the one time in the tournament that we were matched up with UConn, but it was last year.

I think we'll probably end up a #3 or maybe a #2 on our current course.
 
bennyskid said:
The Pac should have had four last year . . . someone got sent to Rocky Top as a #6 instead.
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You're right. The Beavers were under-seeded as a 6. But on the bright side, they had the easiest 3, which got them to the Sweet 16 anyway, and they played their best game of the year against Baylor in the Elite 8. So I guess it worked out for them! That was certainly making the best of a bad situation.
 
Fightin Choke said:
You're right. The Beavers were under-seeded as a 6. But on the bright side, they had the easiest 3, which got them to the Sweet 16 anyway, and they played their best game of the year against Baylor in the Elite 8. So I guess it worked out for them! That was certainly making the best of a bad situation.
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It was divine providence that sent OSU as a 6 seed to Knoxville to deal the Vady Lols their historic defeat. :)
 
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vowelguy said:
Ore St has a nonconf sked problem. Until they fix that their seeding is likely gonna end up in the lower side.
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You are correct there. I looked at Massey and their SOS was 12th, but that was AFTER the tournament where they played Tennessee, Baylor and Louisville. Given the heavy weight Massey's SOS places on games against highly ranked teams, it was probably pretty bad heading into the tournament. Their non-conference SOS was 70th.
 
DefenseBB said:
As Frankie says R E L A X, ND will win out, win the ACC Tournament and be the #1 seed in Chicago.
To me, the PAC12 has a #1 seed problem as they potentially could cannibalize themselves all into #2 and #3 seeds which would elevate MSU to a #1.

Baylor is a lock at #1 as only Texas is left on their schedule.
UConn has Louisville on the road and SC at home. They win Thursday and they are a lock for #1
Oregon wins both the regular season and PAC12 Tournament, they get #1 seed
ND shares ACC regular season and wins ACC Tournament #1
If Stanford wins Season crown and Tournament they get#1 seed
However if Oregon/Stanford/OSU/Utah split the PAC12 season and tournament titles, they all become 2/3 seeds.
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Baylor does still have to travel to Iowa State, whom I consider a better team than Texas, even though Texas did just beat them narrowly in Ames.

If Louisville beats UConn, they'll have inside track on a #1 seed, and UConn will very likely fall to the 2 line.

There's certainly room for a Pac-12 team and/or Mississippi State to grab a #1 seed. The top Pac-12 team may suffer an extra ding or two along the way, but their resume will still be *loaded* with top-25 and top-50 wins. Also, both Stanford and Oregon already have a better win (Baylor and MSU, respectively) than Mississippi State can possibly have. Even if MSU ends up with only 1 loss, their best win will have been over Marquette / South Carolina / Kentucky.
 
Plebe said:
Baylor does still have to travel to Iowa State, whom I consider a better team than Texas, even though Texas did just beat them narrowly in Ames.

If Louisville beats UConn, they'll have inside track on a #1 seed, and UConn will very likely fall to the 2 line.

There's certainly room for a Pac-12 team and/or Mississippi State to grab a #1 seed. The top Pac-12 team may suffer an extra ding or two along the way, but their resume will still be *loaded* with top-25 and top-50 wins. Also, both Stanford and Oregon already have a better win (Baylor and MSU, respectively) than Mississippi State can possibly have. Even if MSU ends up with only 1 loss, their best win will have been over Marquette / South Carolina / Kentucky.
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Yea the Iowa State game still has me worried a bit. They are a pretty good team that can really unload offensively if they are all hitting.
 
vowelguy said:
Ore St has a nonconf sked problem. Until they fix that their seeding is likely gonna end up in the lower side.
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Their schedule this year puzzles me. Too many really bad teams. There's a thread on Benny's House about this, they played 4 teams w/ 300+ RPI in OOC. No good reason for that.
 
nwhoopfan said:
Their schedule this year puzzles me. Too many really bad teams. There's a thread on Benny's House about this, they played 4 teams w/ 300+ RPI in OOC. No good reason for that.
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They probably wanted teams to travel to Corvallis, which is not gonna be the widest field. Not a single true road game in their nonconf sked.
7 home games, 3 in Vancouver, 2 in Maui
 
vowelguy said:
They probably wanted teams to travel to Corvallis, which is not gonna be the widest field. Not a single true road game in their nonconf sked.
7 home games, 3 in Vancouver, 2 in Maui
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Yeah, I didn't understand the no road games thing either.

You'd think after not being selected to host the Tourney last year they would've taken steps to try to correct that this year. I'm kind of worried it's going to happen again. Opportunities to pick up some quality wins w/ @ Stanford and Cal, Oregon X2, Utah, @ ASU, but also plenty of opportunities to get losses.
 
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nwhoopfan said:
Yeah, I didn't understand the no road games thing either.

You'd think after not being selected to host the Tourney last year they would've taken steps to try to correct that this year. I'm kind of worried it's going to happen again. Opportunities to pick up some quality wins w/ @ Stanford and Cal, Oregon X2, Utah, @ ASU, but also plenty of opportunities to get losses.
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By the time they learned their seeding last year, their list of nonconference opponents least for this season was almost certainly set. Maybe for next year?
 
nwhoopfan said:
Yeah, I didn't understand the no road games thing either.

You'd think after not being selected to host the Tourney last year they would've taken steps to try to correct that this year. I'm kind of worried it's going to happen again. Opportunities to pick up some quality wins w/ @ Stanford and Cal, Oregon X2, Utah, @ ASU, but also plenty of opportunities to get losses.
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what is the difference btwn a #6 and a #3 seeds? If you are truly a deserving team, then you should end up meeting with #2 team to settle the score....To crying over that that you end up having to play a #11 team instead of a #14 team?
 
hussybulldog said:
what is the difference btwn a #6 and a #3 seeds? If you are truly a deserving team, then you should end up meeting with #2 team to settle the score....To crying over that that you end up having to play a #11 team instead of a #14 team?
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Yeah, what the heck, tournament seedings really don't matter all that much. I have no idea why the committee bothers to assign them to teams beyond the first 4 number 1 seeds. They might as well just randomly assign teams to positions and locations thereafter.
 
hussybulldog said:
what is the difference btwn a #6 and a #3 seeds?
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The difference is hosting, which is significant. The difference between playing a #11 seed vs. a #14 seed is not important.
 
nwhoopfan said:
The difference is hosting, which is significant. The difference between playing a #11 seed vs. a #14 seed is not important.
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Except that 11 seeds are good enough to win. #14 seeds are not (so far).

#11s have beaten #6 in 31% of games. #14s have won 0% vs #3.
 
Plebe said:
By the time they learned their seeding last year, their list of nonconference opponents least for this season was almost certainly set. Maybe for next year?
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Yes, schedules are largely made out a year or more in advance, but it seems like there are always a few dates to fill in. I thought this year's schedule was possibly a bit of an upgrade. Seems like most years during Rueck's tenure they had 2 fairly good opponents. This year looked like it could have 4, depending on how tournaments played out. But Duke is down. South Carolina and Texas A&M both looked down, but now are back up. Of course there was no doubt about ND being a quality opponent, if they could get to the final of the Vancouver tourney to meet them, which of course they did.

I guess the other problem is it's hard to know from year to year which mid majors might be okay without being much of a threat to beat you, and which will be dreadful. Unfortunately quite a few of them OSU had lined up this year turned out to be the dreadful variety.
 
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vowelguy said:
Except that 11 seeds are good enough to win. #14 seeds are not (so far).

#11s have beaten #6 in 31% of games. #14s have won 0% vs #3.
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Dang it, you're ruining by blathering with facts.
 
vowelguy said:
They probably wanted teams to travel to Corvallis, which is not gonna be the widest field. Not a single true road game in their nonconf sked.
7 home games, 3 in Vancouver, 2 in Maui
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Not a schedule to inspire a good RPI rating since home wins are underrated in the RPI formula and road wins are over rated.

This is something I hope SR addresses next season.
 
NWHoopFan2 said:
Not a schedule to inspire a good RPI rating since home wins are underrated in the RPI formula and road wins are over rated.

This is something I hope SR addresses next season.
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41st in RPI, with #105 SOS -- 5th worst among the 65 P5 schools
 
nwhoopfan said:
Yes, schedules are largely made out a year or more in advance, but it seems like there are always a few dates to fill in. I thought this year's schedule was possibly a bit of an upgrade. Seems like most years during Rueck's tenure they had 2 fairly good opponents. This year looked like it could have 4, depending on how tournaments played out. But Duke is down. South Carolina and Texas A&M both looked down, but now are back up. Of course there was no doubt about ND being a quality opponent, if they could get to the final of the Vancouver tourney to meet them, which of course they did.

I guess the other problem is it's hard to know from year to year which mid majors might be okay without being much of a threat to beat you, and which will be dreadful. Unfortunately quite a few of them OSU had lined up this year turned out to be the dreadful variety.
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I wonder if it's hard for OSU to persuade a distant team to do a home and home with them. Corvallis isn't too hard to travel to, though, is it?
 
Gamecockfan77 said:
I think it's just the one time in the tournament that we were matched up with UConn, but it was last year.

I think we'll probably end up a #3 or maybe a #2 on our current course.
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So even after your ugly game with Vandy, you think this team could be a 2? No way. The realistic goal is to be the last of the 3’s, which is still quite the achievement considering how much the Gamecocks struggled early on. Again, just because you finish 2nd in the weakest of the P5 conferences does not mean you are elite. Go look at any of the Big10 teams vying for that crown...
 
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CompSci87 said:
I wonder if it's hard for OSU to persuade a distant team to do a home and home with them. Corvallis isn't too hard to travel to, though, is it?
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Now traveling to Pullman would be more difficult. But perhaps it is hard to convince people to come to Corvallis. This year's game against Notre Dame was in Vancouver for a tournament, but last year ND and Oregon St. just finished a home and home series, so obviously some teams are willing to travel there. I'll bet UConn would come as well. Maybe the cupcakes are part of a strategy. Perhaps the goal is not to produce a gaudy record, but rather to build up his team's confidence?
 
Oregon State's overall SOS (and RPI) will improve plenty in the next few weeks after they play Utah, Stanford, Cal and then Oregon twice. Just how many of those games they can win will go a long way in determining how high they're seeded.
 
DefenseBB said:
So even after your ugly game with Vandy, you think this team could be a 2? No way. The realistic goal is to be the last of the 3’s, which is still quite the achievement considering how much the Gamecocks struggled early on. Again, just because you finish 2nd in the weakest of the P5 conferences does not mean you are elite. Go look at any of the Big10 teams vying for that crown...
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Where did I say I thought USC was elite?

I’m just doing a math problem. If South Carolina were to finish 12-2 or so, the top 15 SOS would probably put them on the 3 seed line but a weaker group of 2 seed candidates could change that up also.

As could a win over Miss State in Columbia or Greenville, SC.
 
vowelguy said:
Huh?
The top 7 are fairly clear and would need several losses to fall out.
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What seed goes to the 8th team?

This is not an argument that is very important to me and it’s headed for semantics so I’m gonna drop out now.
 
Gamecockfan77 said:
What seed goes to the 8th team?

This is not an argument that is very important to me and it’s headed for semantics so I’m gonna drop out now.
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Ha well I'm gonna agree to the extent that the 8th spot (last 2 seed) is somewhat up for grabs because NC State is a fairly unproven quantity at this point. I don't want to start the usual flame war between rival fanbases here, but if SC can upset MSU on Mar. 3 and go pretty much unscathed otherwise, I'd like their chances.
 
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