Bracketology 1/28

[DefenseBB]

Same here. Honestly, that's the most depressing part of this loss to me.

As Frankie says R E L A X, ND will win out, win the ACC Tournament and be the #1 seed in Chicago.
To me, the PAC12 has a #1 seed problem as they potentially could cannibalize themselves all into #2 and #3 seeds which would elevate MSU to a #1.

Baylor is a lock at #1 as only Texas is left on their schedule.
UConn has Louisville on the road and SC at home. They win Thursday and they are a lock for #1
Oregon wins both the regular season and PAC12 Tournament, they get #1 seed
ND shares ACC regular season and wins ACC Tournament #1
If Stanford wins Season crown and Tournament they get#1 seed
However if Oregon/Stanford/OSU/Utah split the PAC12 season and tournament titles, they all become 2/3 seeds.

 

[triaddukefan]

Because NC A&T aint making it to Greensboro. The opening round sites are more relevant to where the teams are sent, and R Morris is much closer to So Bend.

Additionally ... I dont know if this matters for the D1 WCBB tourney but for D3 (M&W) the committee has a "500-mile rule." This means that it will pay airfare for teams that have to travel >500 miles, so there's a strong incentive to keep teams within 500 miles of home.

Well technically, they already are

 

[LoTrader]

As Frankie says R E L A X, ND will win out, win the ACC Tournament and be the #1 seed in Chicago.
To me, the PAC12 has a #1 seed problem as they potentially could cannibalize themselves all into #2 and #3 seeds which would elevate MSU to a #1.

Baylor is a lock at #1 as only Texas is left on their schedule.
UConn has Louisville on the road and SC at home. They win Thursday and they are a lock for #1
Oregon wins both the regular season and PAC12 Tournament, they get #1 seed
ND shares ACC regular season and wins ACC Tournament #1
If Stanford wins Season crown and Tournament they get#1 seed
However if Oregon/Stanford/OSU/Utah split the PAC12 season and tournament titles, they all become 2/3 seeds.

Such is the life of a competitive PAC-12 conference schedule. Personally, don't care if there are no PAC-12 #1 seeds. I do care that if the PAC-12 upper echelon teams "cannibalize" each other in conference play, that PAC-12 has solid representation in the top 16 seeding. That is where I think the PAC has been mistreated in the past.

 

[DefenseBB]

Such is the life of a competitive PAC-12 conference schedule. Personally, don't care if there are no PAC-12 #1 seeds. I do care that if the PAC-12 upper echelon teams "cannibalize" each other in conference play, that PAC-12 has solid representation in the top 16 seeding. That is where I think the PAC has been mistreated in the past.

Realistically, they should have 5 teams in the top 16
Oregon
Stanford
Oregon St
Utah
ASU

 

[Plebe]

Same here. Honestly, that's the most depressing part of this loss to me.

I believe that the committee will go to great lengths to keep ND in Chicago.

The only scenario that might bump ND from Chicago is if Louisville gets a #1 seed ahead of them, since Louisville is within the NCAA's definition of "driving distance" from Chicago.

But I still don't think that's likely, even with yesterday's loss.

 

[IrishTiger]

As Frankie says R E L A X, ND will win out, win the ACC Tournament and be the #1 seed in Chicago.
To me, the PAC12 has a #1 seed problem as they potentially could cannibalize themselves all into #2 and #3 seeds which would elevate MSU to a #1.

Baylor is a lock at #1 as only Texas is left on their schedule.
UConn has Louisville on the road and SC at home. They win Thursday and they are a lock for #1
Oregon wins both the regular season and PAC12 Tournament, they get #1 seed
ND shares ACC regular season and wins ACC Tournament #1
If Stanford wins Season crown and Tournament they get#1 seed
However if Oregon/Stanford/OSU/Utah split the PAC12 season and tournament titles, they all become 2/3 seeds.

I sure hope You’re right about ND.

 

[Gamecockfan77]

I think it's just the one time in the tournament that we were matched up with UConn, but it was last year.

I think we'll probably end up a #3 or maybe a #2 on our current course.

 

[bennyskid]

Realistically, they should have 5 teams in the top 16
Oregon
Stanford
Oregon St
Utah
ASU

The Pac should have had four last year . . . someone got sent to Rocky Top as a #6 instead.

 

[Fightin Choke]

The Pac should have had four last year . . . someone got sent to Rocky Top as a #6 instead.

You're right. The Beavers were under-seeded as a 6. But on the bright side, they had the easiest 3, which got them to the Sweet 16 anyway, and they played their best game of the year against Baylor in the Elite 8. So I guess it worked out for them! That was certainly making the best of a bad situation.

 

[Plebe]

You're right. The Beavers were under-seeded as a 6. But on the bright side, they had the easiest 3, which got them to the Sweet 16 anyway, and they played their best game of the year against Baylor in the Elite 8. So I guess it worked out for them! That was certainly making the best of a bad situation.

It was divine providence that sent OSU as a 6 seed to Knoxville to deal the Vady Lols their historic defeat.

 

[Vowelguy]

You're right. The Beavers were under-seeded as a 6. .

Ore St has a nonconf sked problem. Until they fix that their seeding is likely gonna end up in the lower side.

 

[Fightin Choke]

Ore St has a nonconf sked problem. Until they fix that their seeding is likely gonna end up in the lower side.

You are correct there. I looked at Massey and their SOS was 12th, but that was AFTER the tournament where they played Tennessee, Baylor and Louisville. Given the heavy weight Massey's SOS places on games against highly ranked teams, it was probably pretty bad heading into the tournament. Their non-conference SOS was 70th.

 

[Plebe]

As Frankie says R E L A X, ND will win out, win the ACC Tournament and be the #1 seed in Chicago.
To me, the PAC12 has a #1 seed problem as they potentially could cannibalize themselves all into #2 and #3 seeds which would elevate MSU to a #1.

Baylor is a lock at #1 as only Texas is left on their schedule.
UConn has Louisville on the road and SC at home. They win Thursday and they are a lock for #1
Oregon wins both the regular season and PAC12 Tournament, they get #1 seed
ND shares ACC regular season and wins ACC Tournament #1
If Stanford wins Season crown and Tournament they get#1 seed
However if Oregon/Stanford/OSU/Utah split the PAC12 season and tournament titles, they all become 2/3 seeds.

Baylor does still have to travel to Iowa State, whom I consider a better team than Texas, even though Texas did just beat them narrowly in Ames.

If Louisville beats UConn, they'll have inside track on a #1 seed, and UConn will very likely fall to the 2 line.

There's certainly room for a Pac-12 team and/or Mississippi State to grab a #1 seed. The top Pac-12 team may suffer an extra ding or two along the way, but their resume will still be *loaded* with top-25 and top-50 wins. Also, both Stanford and Oregon already have a better win (Baylor and MSU, respectively) than Mississippi State can possibly have. Even if MSU ends up with only 1 loss, their best win will have been over Marquette / South Carolina / Kentucky.

 

[DallasBUFan]

Baylor does still have to travel to Iowa State, whom I consider a better team than Texas, even though Texas did just beat them narrowly in Ames.

If Louisville beats UConn, they'll have inside track on a #1 seed, and UConn will very likely fall to the 2 line.

There's certainly room for a Pac-12 team and/or Mississippi State to grab a #1 seed. The top Pac-12 team may suffer an extra ding or two along the way, but their resume will still be *loaded* with top-25 and top-50 wins. Also, both Stanford and Oregon already have a better win (Baylor and MSU, respectively) than Mississippi State can possibly have. Even if MSU ends up with only 1 loss, their best win will have been over Marquette / South Carolina / Kentucky.

Yea the Iowa State game still has me worried a bit. They are a pretty good team that can really unload offensively if they are all hitting.

 

[nwhoopfan]

Ore St has a nonconf sked problem. Until they fix that their seeding is likely gonna end up in the lower side.

Their schedule this year puzzles me. Too many really bad teams. There's a thread on Benny's House about this, they played 4 teams w/ 300+ RPI in OOC. No good reason for that.

 

[Vowelguy]

Their schedule this year puzzles me. Too many really bad teams. There's a thread on Benny's House about this, they played 4 teams w/ 300+ RPI in OOC. No good reason for that.

They probably wanted teams to travel to Corvallis, which is not gonna be the widest field. Not a single true road game in their nonconf sked.
7 home games, 3 in Vancouver, 2 in Maui

 

[nwhoopfan]

They probably wanted teams to travel to Corvallis, which is not gonna be the widest field. Not a single true road game in their nonconf sked.
7 home games, 3 in Vancouver, 2 in Maui

Yeah, I didn't understand the no road games thing either.

You'd think after not being selected to host the Tourney last year they would've taken steps to try to correct that this year. I'm kind of worried it's going to happen again. Opportunities to pick up some quality wins w/ @ Stanford and Cal, Oregon X2, Utah, @ ASU, but also plenty of opportunities to get losses.

 

[Plebe]

Yeah, I didn't understand the no road games thing either.

You'd think after not being selected to host the Tourney last year they would've taken steps to try to correct that this year. I'm kind of worried it's going to happen again. Opportunities to pick up some quality wins w/ @ Stanford and Cal, Oregon X2, Utah, @ ASU, but also plenty of opportunities to get losses.

By the time they learned their seeding last year, their list of nonconference opponents least for this season was almost certainly set. Maybe for next year?

 

[hussybulldog]

Yeah, I didn't understand the no road games thing either.

You'd think after not being selected to host the Tourney last year they would've taken steps to try to correct that this year. I'm kind of worried it's going to happen again. Opportunities to pick up some quality wins w/ @ Stanford and Cal, Oregon X2, Utah, @ ASU, but also plenty of opportunities to get losses.

what is the difference btwn a #6 and a #3 seeds? If you are truly a deserving team, then you should end up meeting with #2 team to settle the score....To crying over that that you end up having to play a #11 team instead of a #14 team?

 

[newfrontier]

what is the difference btwn a #6 and a #3 seeds? If you are truly a deserving team, then you should end up meeting with #2 team to settle the score....To crying over that that you end up having to play a #11 team instead of a #14 team?

Yeah, what the heck, tournament seedings really don't matter all that much. I have no idea why the committee bothers to assign them to teams beyond the first 4 number 1 seeds. They might as well just randomly assign teams to positions and locations thereafter.

 

[nwhoopfan]

what is the difference btwn a #6 and a #3 seeds?

The difference is hosting, which is significant. The difference between playing a #11 seed vs. a #14 seed is not important.

 

[Vowelguy]

The difference is hosting, which is significant. The difference between playing a #11 seed vs. a #14 seed is not important.

Except that 11 seeds are good enough to win. #14 seeds are not (so far).

#11s have beaten #6 in 31% of games. #14s have won 0% vs #3.

 

[nwhoopfan]

By the time they learned their seeding last year, their list of nonconference opponents least for this season was almost certainly set. Maybe for next year?

Yes, schedules are largely made out a year or more in advance, but it seems like there are always a few dates to fill in. I thought this year's schedule was possibly a bit of an upgrade. Seems like most years during Rueck's tenure they had 2 fairly good opponents. This year looked like it could have 4, depending on how tournaments played out. But Duke is down. South Carolina and Texas A&M both looked down, but now are back up. Of course there was no doubt about ND being a quality opponent, if they could get to the final of the Vancouver tourney to meet them, which of course they did.

I guess the other problem is it's hard to know from year to year which mid majors might be okay without being much of a threat to beat you, and which will be dreadful. Unfortunately quite a few of them OSU had lined up this year turned out to be the dreadful variety.

 

[nwhoopfan]

Except that 11 seeds are good enough to win. #14 seeds are not (so far).

#11s have beaten #6 in 31% of games. #14s have won 0% vs #3.

Dang it, you're ruining by blathering with facts.

 

[NWHoopFan2]

They probably wanted teams to travel to Corvallis, which is not gonna be the widest field. Not a single true road game in their nonconf sked.
7 home games, 3 in Vancouver, 2 in Maui

Not a schedule to inspire a good RPI rating since home wins are underrated in the RPI formula and road wins are over rated.

This is something I hope SR addresses next season.