Bracketology 1/28

[Vowelguy]

Not a schedule to inspire a good RPI rating since home wins are underrated in the RPI formula and road wins are over rated.

This is something I hope SR addresses next season.

41st in RPI, with #105 SOS -- 5th worst among the 65 P5 schools

 

[LoTrader]

41st in RPI, with #105 SOS -- 5th worst among the 65 P5 schools

OK, the committee will seed OSU #6 again Perhaps OSU will earn it this year?

 

[CompSci87]

Yes, schedules are largely made out a year or more in advance, but it seems like there are always a few dates to fill in. I thought this year's schedule was possibly a bit of an upgrade. Seems like most years during Rueck's tenure they had 2 fairly good opponents. This year looked like it could have 4, depending on how tournaments played out. But Duke is down. South Carolina and Texas A&M both looked down, but now are back up. Of course there was no doubt about ND being a quality opponent, if they could get to the final of the Vancouver tourney to meet them, which of course they did.

I guess the other problem is it's hard to know from year to year which mid majors might be okay without being much of a threat to beat you, and which will be dreadful. Unfortunately quite a few of them OSU had lined up this year turned out to be the dreadful variety.

I wonder if it's hard for OSU to persuade a distant team to do a home and home with them. Corvallis isn't too hard to travel to, though, is it?

 

[DefenseBB]

I think it's just the one time in the tournament that we were matched up with UConn, but it was last year.

I think we'll probably end up a #3 or maybe a #2 on our current course.

So even after your ugly game with Vandy, you think this team could be a 2? No way. The realistic goal is to be the last of the 3’s, which is still quite the achievement considering how much the Gamecocks struggled early on. Again, just because you finish 2nd in the weakest of the P5 conferences does not mean you are elite. Go look at any of the Big10 teams vying for that crown...

 

[Fightin Choke]

I wonder if it's hard for OSU to persuade a distant team to do a home and home with them. Corvallis isn't too hard to travel to, though, is it?

Now traveling to Pullman would be more difficult. But perhaps it is hard to convince people to come to Corvallis. This year's game against Notre Dame was in Vancouver for a tournament, but last year ND and Oregon St. just finished a home and home series, so obviously some teams are willing to travel there. I'll bet UConn would come as well. Maybe the cupcakes are part of a strategy. Perhaps the goal is not to produce a gaudy record, but rather to build up his team's confidence?

 

[Plebe]

Oregon State's overall SOS (and RPI) will improve plenty in the next few weeks after they play Utah, Stanford, Cal and then Oregon twice. Just how many of those games they can win will go a long way in determining how high they're seeded.

 

[Gamecockfan77]

So even after your ugly game with Vandy, you think this team could be a 2? No way. The realistic goal is to be the last of the 3’s, which is still quite the achievement considering how much the Gamecocks struggled early on. Again, just because you finish 2nd in the weakest of the P5 conferences does not mean you are elite. Go look at any of the Big10 teams vying for that crown...

Where did I say I thought USC was elite?

I’m just doing a math problem. If South Carolina were to finish 12-2 or so, the top 15 SOS would probably put them on the 3 seed line but a weaker group of 2 seed candidates could change that up also.

As could a win over Miss State in Columbia or Greenville, SC.

 

[Vowelguy]

a weaker group of 2 seed candidates could change that up also.

Huh?
The top 7 are fairly clear and would need several losses to fall out.

 

[Gamecockfan77]

Huh?
The top 7 are fairly clear and would need several losses to fall out.

What seed goes to the 8th team?

This is not an argument that is very important to me and it’s headed for semantics so I’m gonna drop out now.

 

[Plebe]

What seed goes to the 8th team?

This is not an argument that is very important to me and it’s headed for semantics so I’m gonna drop out now.

Ha well I'm gonna agree to the extent that the 8th spot (last 2 seed) is somewhat up for grabs because NC State is a fairly unproven quantity at this point. I don't want to start the usual flame war between rival fanbases here, but if SC can upset MSU on Mar. 3 and go pretty much unscathed otherwise, I'd like their chances.

 

[Gamecockfan77]

I just wish Rupp would quite hosting as the "southern" site since the committee evidently isn't ever sending South Carolina there.

 

[Vowelguy]

I just wish Rupp would quite hosting as the "southern" site since the committee evidently isn't ever sending South Carolina there.

Rupp isnt hosting this year. And given its generally poor attendance for the 3 years, I doubt it will host again anytime soon.

 

[Vowelguy]

Rupp isnt hosting this year. And given its generally poor attendance for the 3 years, I doubt it will host again anytime soon.

Correction, it did pretty well in 2018 (avg ~6000). But 2017 was an unmigated disaster (<3000, worst of the 4 sites). And the 2016 regional final got just 3300.

 

[Gamecockfan77]

Rupp isnt hosting this year. And given its generally poor attendance for the 3 years, I doubt it will host again anytime soon.

Yes.

From your lips to God's ears.

 

[Fightin Choke]

Ha well I'm gonna agree to the extent that the 8th spot (last 2 seed) is somewhat up for grabs because NC State is a fairly unproven quantity at this point. I don't want to start the usual flame war between rival fanbases here, but if SC can upset MSU on Mar. 3 and go pretty much unscathed otherwise, I'd like their chances.

If South Carolina only loses to UConn and then to MSU once (either regular season or SEC tourney, but not both), then they will have 7 losses. Is that too many losses for a 2-seed this season? NC State shouldn't have anywhere near that many, but of course we have to consider SOS. Presently Massey projects NC State's SOS as 24th (not good), but that will likely increase with the ACC tourney more than South Carolina's will (with the SEC tourney). SC's predicted SOS is presently 9th, which is a big difference.

I don't know how Nolan predicts his future SOS, but he has NC State as 14th (it's presently 31st). South Carolina is predicted to end the regular season with the 15th ranked SOS (their present SOS is 15 as well).

Here is NC St.'s remaining schedule (with Massey rank):
@Wake Forest (128)
UNC (39)
@FSU (25)
@Cuse (18)
Notre Dame (4)
Wake Forest (128)
@UNC (39)
@Louisville (6)
Miami (19)

How many losses do you see? (Massey predicts 3)

Incidentally, Massey predicts South Carolina will end the regular season with 9 losses, but of course the Gamecocks are trending up.

 

[Plebe]

If South Carolina only loses to UConn and then to MSU once (either regular season or SEC tourney, but not both), then they will have 7 losses. Is that too many losses for a 2-seed this season? NC State shouldn't have anywhere near that many, but of course we have to consider SOS. Presently Massey projects NC State's SOS as 24th (not good), but that will likely increase with the ACC tourney more than South Carolina's will (with the SEC tourney). SC's predicted SOS is presently 9th, which is a big difference.

I don't know how Nolan predicts his future SOS, but he has NC State as 14th (it's presently 31st). South Carolina is predicted to end the regular season with the 15th ranked SOS (their present SOS is 15 as well).

Here is NC St.'s remaining schedule (with Massey rank):
@Wake Forest (128)
UNC (39)
@FSU (25)
@Cuse (18)
Notre Dame (4)
Wake Forest (128)
@UNC (39)
@Louisville (6)
Miami (19)

How many losses do you see? (Massey predicts 3)

Incidentally, Massey predicts South Carolina will end the regular season with 9 losses, but of course the Gamecocks are trending up.

It's never about raw number of losses. It's all about quality wins, and how they weigh against the bad losses.

Seven losses isn't too many for a 2 seed if most of those losses are to top teams and if they have better wins than the other teams in contention for a 2 seed. That's why I think it might take SC upsetting a Mississippi State or (gulp) UConn to make it happen.

 

[Vowelguy]

If South Carolina only loses to UConn and then to MSU once (either regular season or SEC tourney, but not both), then they will have 7 losses. Is that too many losses for a 2-seed this season?

No such thing.

 

[nwhoopfan]

I wonder if it's hard for OSU to persuade a distant team to do a home and home with them. Corvallis isn't too hard to travel to, though, is it?

In addition to a home and home w/ Notre Dame, they also had a series with Tennessee fairly recently. Vols came to Corvallis in '15.

 

[triaddukefan]

I wonder if it's hard for OSU to persuade a distant team to do a home and home with them. Corvallis isn't too hard to travel to, though, is it?

Duke did a home and home with them..... last year and this year. No idea how that came about... but I enjoyed seeing the Beavers play in person.

 

[triaddukefan]

I
@Wake Forest (128)
UNC (39)
@FSU (25)
@Cuse (18)
Notre Dame (4)
Wake Forest (128)
@UNC (39)
@Louisville (6)
Miami (19)

How many losses do you see? (Massey predicts 3)

Incidentally, Massey predicts South Carolina will end the regular season with 9 losses, but of course the Gamecocks are trending up.

I see three losses for State....... but.... but...

UNC (39)
@FSU (25)
@Cuse (18)
Notre Dame (4)
Wake Forest (128)
@UNC (39)

 

[Plebe]

In addition to a home and home w/ Notre Dame, they also had a series with Tennessee fairly recently. Vols came to Corvallis in '15.

Also had a home-and-home with Marquette (2016-2017).

 

[nwhoopfan]

Good catch @triaddukefan and @Plebe.

For fun I looked back at some of their schedules from years past. They first hosted Notre Dame in Dec. of 2013. That was the first year Rueck started to get some momentum going. I'm not quite sure how they booked that game. That was year 4 for him. They had losing records in 2 of his first 3 years and were definitely not a name program. Kudos to McGraw for giving them a chance to host a big time opponent. ND returned to Corvallis again in Nov. 2017. Does that mean there is a return game in South Bend during the '19-'20 season? I would guess they didn't schedule each other this year because of the possibility of meeting in Vancouver.

 

[Plebe]

Good catch @triaddukefan and @Plebe.

For fun I looked back at some of their schedules from years past. They first hosted Notre Dame in Dec. of 2013. That was the first year Rueck started to get some momentum going. I'm not quite sure how they booked that game. That was year 4 for him. They had losing records in 2 of his first 3 years and were definitely not a name program. Kudos to McGraw for giving them a chance to host a big time opponent. ND returned to Corvallis again in Nov. 2017. Does that mean there is a return game in South Bend during the '19-'20 season? I would guess they didn't schedule each other this year because of the possibility of meeting in Vancouver.

That 2013-14 season was the first time I took notice of Oregon State. I watched in person their game at Arizona State that season, when Wiese was a freshman. The Beavs led almost the entire game but blew it in just the last few minutes. I distinctly remember Wiese fouling out and looking disconsolate on the bench. But they were clearly a young team on the rise. They had a very strong February, as I recall, and earned OSU's first NCAA bid in many years...

 

[Jmsdawg]

Where did I say I thought USC was elite?

I’m just doing a math problem. If South Carolina were to finish 12-2 or so, the top 15 SOS would probably put them on the 3 seed line but a weaker group of 2 seed candidates could change that up also.

As could a win over Miss State in Columbia or Greenville, SC.

To me elite means you have the talent, the coach, the fan base, and the history, USC fills all those squares and IMHO qualifies as ELITE. That is coming from someone who has not love for USC because they have been a real nemesis for my beloved DAWGS.

 

[nwhoopfan]

That 2013-14 season was the first time I took notice of Oregon State. I watched in person their game at Arizona State that season, when Wiese was a freshman. The Beavs led almost the entire game but blew it in just the last few minutes. I distinctly remember Wiese fouling out and looking disconsolate on the bench. But they were clearly a young team on the rise. They had a very strong February, as I recall, and earned OSU's first NCAA bid in many years...

Yes I also recall them coming on strong the back half of the season that year.

I saw them once or twice the previous year. They weren't very good yet but freshman Weisner caught my eye. I don't think Hamblin did much that year but she was much improved as a soph, and of course adding Wiese was a big deal for them.