Bracket Matrix Bracket entry | The Boneyard

Bracket Matrix Bracket entry

shizzle787

shizzle787

King Shizzle DCCLXXXVII of the Cesspool
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Here's my bracket (I will post one more next Sunday morning):

S-Curve goes from left to right.

1 Kansas, Houston, Alabama, UCLA
2 Purdue, Texas, Arizona, Baylor
3 Kansas State, Gonzaga, Marquette, UConn
4 Tennessee, Virginia, Missouri, SDSU
5 Indiana, Xavier, Northwestern, TCU
6 Iowa State, Michigan State, Duke, Miami
7 WVU, Iowa, Texas A&M, St. Mary's
8 Illinois, FAU, Memphis, Auburn
9 Maryland, NC State, UNC, Arizona State
10 Boise State, Kentucky, Oklahoma State, Creighton
11 Miss State, USC, Arkansas, Providence, Wisconsin, Oregon
12 Sam Houston, Drake, Oral Roberts, VCU
13 Toledo, Yale, Louisiana, Iona
14 Furman, Hofstra, Vermont, UC Irvine
15 E Washington, Kennesaw State, UNC-Asheville, Alcorn State
16 Colgate, Youngstown State, Howard, SEMO, Texas A&M-CC, Fairleigh Dickinson

Last four byes: Oklahoma State, Creighton, Mississippi State, USC
Last four in: Arkansas, Providence, Wisconsin, Oregon
First four out: Nevada, Penn State, Rutgers, Clemson
Next four out: Michigan, Pitt, Vandy, Utah State
 
UNC, ASU, OK St, Creighton, UK, Ark, PC, and Oregon all should reevaluated.
 
HeGotGame said:
UNC, ASU, OK St, Creighton, UK, Ark, PC, and Oregon all should reevaluated.
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UNC has no losses in Quad 3 or 4. Quad 2 they are 6-3 and 7-12 overall in first two quadrants. Most of the teams I have them ahead of have 3-4 losses in Quad 3-4.
 
shizzle787 said:
UNC has no losses in Quad 3 or 4. Quad 2 they are 6-3 and 7-12 overall in first two quadrants. Most of the teams I have them ahead of have 3-4 losses in Quad 3-4.
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We'll see what happens, but I have UNC out. Not a 9 seed. They are 1-9 Quad 1.
 
shizzle787 said:
Here's my bracket (I will post one more next Sunday morning):

S-Curve goes from left to right.

1 Kansas, Houston, Alabama, UCLA
2 Purdue, Texas, Arizona, Baylor
3 Kansas State, Gonzaga, Marquette, UConn
4 Tennessee, Virginia, Missouri, SDSU
5 Indiana, Xavier, Northwestern, TCU
6 Iowa State, Michigan State, Duke, Miami
7 WVU, Iowa, Texas A&M, St. Mary's
8 Illinois, FAU, Memphis, Auburn
9 Maryland, NC State, UNC, Arizona State
10 Boise State, Kentucky, Oklahoma State, Creighton
11 Miss State, USC, Arkansas, Providence, Wisconsin, Oregon
12 Sam Houston, Drake, Oral Roberts, VCU
13 Toledo, Yale, Louisiana, Iona
14 Furman, Hofstra, Vermont, UC Irvine
15 E Washington, Kennesaw State, UNC-Asheville, Alcorn State
16 Colgate, Youngstown State, Howard, SEMO, Texas A&M-CC, Fairleigh Dickinson

Last four byes: Oklahoma State, Creighton, Mississippi State, USC
Last four in: Arkansas, Providence, Wisconsin, Oregon
First four out: Nevada, Penn State, Rutgers, Clemson
Next four out: Michigan, Pitt, Vandy, Utah State
Expand ...
Baylor got beat yesterday and Marquette beat them by 30. Would think those should be switched.
 
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HeGotGame said:
We'll see what happens, but I have UNC out. Not a 9 seed. They are 1-9 Quad 1.
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I knew that one would be the biggest point of contention. We'll see. If they lose a Quad 3 game this week, I would probably move them out or at least to the play-in. I scrub all of the resumes in clumps so we'll see what happens.
 
UConn is a Jordan Hawkins shoe size and a seton Hall rebound away from being 26-5 and firmly on the 1 line.
 
tzznandrew said:
UNC on the 9-line right now is wild. And ahead of Kentucky!!!?!???!?!
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Kentucky has two Q3 losses and one Q4 loss. UNC has neither.
 
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shizzle787 said:
Kentucky has two Q3 losses and one Q4 loss. UNC has neither.
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They also have 6 Q1 wins. Which, you know, matter.

At some point avoiding bad losses isn't as good as getting good wins.
 
Last edited:
tzznandrew said:
They also have 6 Q1 wins. Which, you know, matter.

At some point avoiding bad losses isn't as good as getting good wins.
Expand ...
Sure, but were splitting hairs between an additional 5 Q1 wins and 3 bad losses. I personally believe 1 bad loss is worth more than a good loss. How much more the committee will ultimately decide.
 
shizzle787 said:
UNC has no losses in Quad 3 or 4. Quad 2 they are 6-3 and 7-12 overall in first two quadrants. Most of the teams I have them ahead of have 3-4 losses in Quad 3-4.
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This seems a lot more like "What I would do" vs. "What the committee will do". The latter is the point of bracket matrix and bracketology in general. The committee has never valued avoiding bad losses as strongly as you are.

You have UNC as a 9 and Wisconsin as an 11. Here are the 2 resumes:

UNC:
Resume metric ave: 49
Predictive metric ave: 40
SOS - 46
Q1 wins: 1
Q1+Q2 record: 7-12
Away + neutral record: 7-9. 4-7 away. Best away win: Syracuse #127.
Q3+4 losses: 0

Wisconsin:
Resume metric ave: 48
Predictive metric ave: 63
SOS - 11
Q1 wins: 6
Q1+Q2 record: 11-12
Away + neutral record: 8-7. 5-6 away. Best away win: Marquette #13.
Q3+Q4 losses: 1. #90 Wake Forest at home.

Every part of the resume for Wisconsin is better other than scoring margin and 1 top 100 NET loss. Yet you have UNC 2 seedlines better.

Bonus.
Creighton
Resume metric ave: 39
Predictive metric ave: 11
SOS - 28
Q1 wins: 4
Q1+Q2 record: 9-10
Away + neutral record: 7-9. 5-6 away. Best away win: Seton Hall #74.
Q3+Q4 losses: 1. #94 Nebraska at home.

Even disregarding any Kalkbrenner injury consideration, Creighton's resume is better in every way except one okay (not even that bad) loss. Yet you have UNC a seedline better. UConn actually has a worse loss than Creighton. #97 St. John's at home. Why isn't UNC ahead of UConn?
 
Several schools are off by multiple lines, like PC, Creighton and UNC.

The discussion ends Sunday night, time will tell

I suppose I should give to the OP for trying. I know I can't. My focus is much narrower, I leave the bracket up to the professionals who are pretty darn good at picking the field
 
willie99 said:
Several schools are off by multiple lines, like PC, Creighton and UNC.

The discussion ends Sunday night, time will tell

I suppose I should give to the OP for trying. I know I can't. My focus is much narrower, I leave the bracket up to the professionals who are pretty darn good at picking the field
Expand ...

The committee does not follow the bracketologists. There are always 1-2 sometimes more head scratchers that make zero sense.
 
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If you want to see how stupid NET rankings are look at where Ohio state is and where Nebraska is and their resume’s
 
shizzle787 said:
Here's my bracket (I will post one more next Sunday morning):

S-Curve goes from left to right.

1 Kansas, Houston, Alabama, UCLA
2 Purdue, Texas, Arizona, Baylor
3 Kansas State, Gonzaga, Marquette, UConn
4 Tennessee, Virginia, Missouri, SDSU
5 Indiana, Xavier, Northwestern, TCU
6 Iowa State, Michigan State, Duke, Miami
7 WVU, Iowa, Texas A&M, St. Mary's
8 Illinois, FAU, Memphis, Auburn
9 Maryland, NC State, UNC, Arizona State
10 Boise State, Kentucky, Oklahoma State, Creighton
11 Miss State, USC, Arkansas, Providence, Wisconsin, Oregon
12 Sam Houston, Drake, Oral Roberts, VCU
13 Toledo, Yale, Louisiana, Iona
14 Furman, Hofstra, Vermont, UC Irvine
15 E Washington, Kennesaw State, UNC-Asheville, Alcorn State
16 Colgate, Youngstown State, Howard, SEMO, Texas A&M-CC, Fairleigh Dickinson

Last four byes: Oklahoma State, Creighton, Mississippi State, USC
Last four in: Arkansas, Providence, Wisconsin, Oregon
First four out: Nevada, Penn State, Rutgers, Clemson
Next four out: Michigan, Pitt, Vandy, Utah State
Expand ...
Providence probably a 9/10. Creighton an 8/9.
 
shizzle787 said:
I knew that one would be the biggest point of contention. We'll see. If they lose a Quad 3 game this week, I would probably move them out or at least to the play-in. I scrub all of the resumes in clumps so we'll see what happens.
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UNC is going to be out.
 
HeGotGame said:
UNC is going to be out.
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I don't know yet. I will do my final entry on Sunday. They are probably on the wrong side but some other bubble teams took some bad losses.
 
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shizzle787 said:
I don't know yet. I will do my final entry on Sunday. They are probably on the wrong side but some other bubble teams took some bad losses.
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Since you had them as 9 seed you may think they still have a chance, but I haven’t seen one bracket or prognosticator that still has them in the field.
 
Jbirdp5 said:
Since you had them as 9 seed you may think they still have a chance, but I haven’t seen one bracket or prognosticator that still has them in the field.
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I really just don’t know yet. I’m going to pour through the quad data Sunday morning. I don’t have a preconceived notion on any teams going in. I put them there last week due to lack of Quad 3 and 4 losses, but their season is done so other bubble teams will pick up more Quad 1 wins and change the calculus. I didn’t use the use the eye test or factor in conference strength too much as I wanted to focus on the data, but I am going to change my methodology a little for the final bracket.
 
JohnFSilver said:
Hate this. I don’t care how good you think you are. Play games. I think teams that decline have program culture issues.
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Meh. In most cases I'd agree, especially if you have a young team. But not sure what this UNC team gets out of an NIT trip. You have 2 super seniors who have to leave, Bacot who's leaving as a senior, and then Caleb Love/RJ Davis who could come back for their senior year. Those 5 played 80% of the minutes this year for UNC
 
My 68 teams are set. Just waiting for results from Ivy and A-10 tomorrow to determine two final auto bids and still need to seed.
 
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