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Bowl math

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Chin Diesel said:
That ain't happening. For any of the bowls UConn is being looked at, 5k-7k fans will be a lot.

Outside of the CFB playoff games there are only another 6-8 bowls where fans travel en masses. This isn't the 1990's any more.

I'd be ecstatic if UConn brought 20k fans to a bowl game this season, and it would he great for the school's reputation but I don't see that happening here.
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If we got the Fenway bowl we would easily bring 20k. There are thousands of us in Boston already and it’s a very easy drive from CT
 
Bowl with contractual obligations are filled first, any left over spots are then grouped by record. All FBS teams with 7-5 records go first before any 6-6 team even if that team is from a P5 conference that has already filled it's contract slots. Both the SEC and B1G will get multiple teams into the CFP/NY6 bowl games, at least 5 and possibly 6 of the 12 total spots. This will leave their lower end bowl spots vacant. A few have backup arrangements with G5 conferences others are 'at-large'.

Another important factor is APR. Bowl priority is assigned first by wins and then by APR. A 6-6 team with the highest APR goes first. Once all the teams are identified, the bowls do talk about finding the best fits with the networks, primarily ESPN which owns a number of these lesser bowl games.

Beating Army would all but guarantee a spot. 6-6 is likely still good enough but would depend on other factors, akin to bid stealers on Selection Sunday.
 
Last year, ESPN literally created a bowl game called the Frisco Football Classic and set it up in a matter of weeks just so every bowl-eligible team had a bowl game to play in. I would assume that if that scenario presents itself again, that might be a last ditch option.
 
WrenchFan69 said:
Army beat 2 FCS teams but only one of those wins counts towards bowl eligibility, meaning they have a max of 5 wins
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Could be - I didn't dive that deep into it/not sure what their special status is with their potential bowl tie-in(s) involves.
 
CTFAN4LIFE said:
I did a quick but hopefully accurate nose count of reams that need to win 1, 2, or 3 games to get to six wins. Some almost certainly won't make it based on who they play. Total of 36 teams. Clearly, the games need to be played to see how the dust settles....

Need 1 win (18 teams): Miami (FL), Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Sparty, Wisconsin, Rice, MTSU, FAU, UAB, BYU, Ball State, Bowling Green, Buffalo, Utah State, Arkansas, GA Southern, App State, Southern Miss.

Need to win 2 (17 teams): Georgia Tech, West Virginia, Iowa State, Rutgers, UTEP, FIU, New Mexico State, Central Michigan, Miami (FL), Kent State, UNLV, Arizona, Auburn, Missouri, Vanderbilt, GA Southern, LA -Monroe.

Need to win 3 (1 team): Army.

Commence the voodoo magic!
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Add Memphis and Louisiana to the list of teams with 5.
 
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Westies53 said:
Last year, ESPN literally created a bowl game called the Frisco Football Classic and set it up in a matter of weeks just so every bowl-eligible team had a bowl game to play in. I would assume that if that scenario presents itself again, that might be a last ditch option.
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The Revolution @ Rent Bowl. Buffalo should become bowl eligible at 5 wins with Akron and Kent St on its schedule.

"The NCAA approved the bowl game in order to accommodate all 83 bowl-eligible teams; otherwise, one bowl-eligible team would not have been selected for a bowl game.[a] The added bowl game essentially served as a replacement of the canceled San Francisco Bowl.[6]"
 
Westies53 said:
Last year, ESPN literally created a bowl game called the Frisco Football Classic and set it up in a matter of weeks just so every bowl-eligible team had a bowl game to play in. I would assume that if that scenario presents itself again, that might be a last ditch option.
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McMurphy already threw water on ESPN doing that earlier in the week so it would have to be another network/streaming service stepping up it would appear;

 
Kolumbo said:
I don't trust a guy who gets his wording mixed up like this:

"If there aren't enough 6-win teams to fill 42 bowls, ESPN won't create an additional bowl"
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I agree. I think ESPN would if there was 84-86 teams. Then again the math is against us. No sense to worry about it the cards will fall where they fall. Just enjoying the ride
 
bowl math:
if you expect a big crowd at your house that's more ladies than men, buy an extra case or two of bathroom tissue.
bowl math.

silly posters, everyone knows which bowl we're going to - The Keith Bowl.
the early line has us giving 50. we'll cover, easy.
 
LoyalFanCT said:
Fenway is a possibility too, and we would be the regional team
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It not gonna happen. Its one of the AAC/ACC guarantee games. And they both have more than enough teams. I wish I was wrong…but I don’t think I am
 
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I was looking at the CBS bowl projections yesterday. Of the 82 available spots, 20 of them were filled with teams of 5, 4, or 3 (Army) wins. 62 were claimed with only UConn and Marshall having 6 wins but no spot.

There are still 39 teams competing for those 20 spots. Of those teams, here are their current records (P5 and Army listed in bold as those all have definite bowl game tie-ins):

6-4: Marshall
6-5: UConn
5-5: Memphis, Buffalo, BYU, GA Southern, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, Michigan St., Arkansas, Rice, Middle Tenn, So. Miss, App St., Ball St., Louisiana, Utah St., Bowling Green, FAU, UAB, Texas Tech, Miami
4-5: New Mexico St.
4-6: Iowa St., UNLV, Georgia St., Miami (OH), Missouri, Georgia Tech, UL Monroe, Vandy, Auburn, Kent St., Central Michigan, FIU, UTEP, WVU
3-6: Army

There are still 23 teams with a shot at 7 wins (or 8 for Marshall). It is incumbent for UConn to beat Army, as doing so not only gets them to 7 wins, but also opens up an additional bowl spot earmarked for Army (Independence Bowl).
 
shizzle787 said:
So I did my projections by league (# of teams I think will be bowl eligible):
AAC (7)
ACC (9)
Big 12 (8)
B1G (10)
C-USA (5)
Indies (3)
MAC (5)
MW (7)
Pac-12 (7)
SEC (10)
Sun Belt (9)

Bid not including UConn: 82

As of right now, I would rate our chances of going bowling at around 45%. Army is a must win.
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9 from the Sun Belt? Sun BeIt currently has 5 eligible teams. I saw that one projection has Western Kentucky and Georgia Southern in the Myrtle Beach Bowl. GA Southern has 5 wins with games against Marshall (6 wins) and App State (5 wins), while App State has games against Georgia Southern and ODU (3 wins). Lots of math to figure.
 
storrsroars said:
I was looking at the CBS bowl projections yesterday. Of the 82 available spots, 20 of them were filled with teams of 5, 4, or 3 (Army) wins. 62 were claimed with only UConn and Marshall having 6 wins but no spot.

There are still 39 teams competing for those 20 spots. Of those teams, here are their current records (P5 and Army listed in bold as those all have definite bowl game tie-ins):

6-4: Marshall
6-5: UConn
5-5: Memphis, Buffalo, BYU, GA Southern, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, Michigan St., Arkansas, Rice, Middle Tenn, So. Miss, App St., Ball St., Louisiana, Utah St., Bowling Green, FAU, UAB, Texas Tech, Miami
4-5: New Mexico St.
4-6: Iowa St., UNLV, Georgia St., Miami (OH), Missouri, Georgia Tech, UL Monroe, Vandy, Auburn, Kent St., Central Michigan, FIU, UTEP, WVU
3-6: Army

There are still 23 teams with a shot at 7 wins (or 8 for Marshall). It is incumbent for UConn to beat Army, as doing so not only gets them to 7 wins, but also opens up an additional bowl spot earmarked for Army (Independence Bowl).
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If Army wins out, the max wins they can get that go toward bowl eligibility is 5. They cannot become bowl eligible.
 
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Dizzy21 said:
If Army wins out, the max wins they can get that go toward bowl eligibility is 5. They cannot become bowl eligible.
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I haven't gotten to that level of detail, but thanks for pointing it out. I think that also applies to App St.

So that leaves 37 teams vying for 20 spots.
 
Dizzy21 said:
If Army wins out, the max wins they can get that go toward bowl eligibility is 5. They cannot become bowl eligible.
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Army has 3 games left - vs us, UMass and Navy so they can still get to 6 wins. We can prevent that on Saturday
 
CBS currently projects us playing Southern Miss on 12/17 in the LendingTree Bowl in Mobile, AL. Not sure if these projections are worth anything at this point, however.

www.cbssports.com

College Football Bowl Projections 2025-26

CBS Sports experts select the college football teams they believe will make the NCAA National Semifinals at the end of the 2025 season and give projections for each game.
www.cbssports.com www.cbssports.com
 
PlayItLeo said:
CBS currently projects us playing Southern Miss on 12/17 in the LendingTree Bowl in Mobile, AL. Not sure if these projections are worth anything at this point, however.

www.cbssports.com

College Football Bowl Projections 2025-26

CBS Sports experts select the college football teams they believe will make the NCAA National Semifinals at the end of the 2025 season and give projections for each game.
www.cbssports.com www.cbssports.com
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If what people have said is true - that ESPN can "trade" bowl games because they own the media rights - then it might make more sense for them to send Memphis there instead, and then we play Pitt in the Fenway Bowl.

How many Memphis fans are going to travel to cold Boston in the middle of December? 5? Send them to Mobile, Alabama instead
 
PAGS said:
It not gonna happen. Its one of the AAC/ACC guarantee games. And they both have more than enough teams. I wish I was wrong…but I don’t think I am
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the aac teams want it but do the acc teams with six or more wins want to go to a kind of unknown bowl game
 
Vuce said:
Army has 3 games left - vs us, UMass and Navy so they can still get to 6 wins. We can prevent that on Saturday
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… but 2 of their current 3 wins are against FCS teams (Colgate & Villanova). Unless they received some special NCAA waiver - historically they can only count one of the two FCS wins towards bowl eligibility.

Army Bowl agreement w/ ESPN - “Provided that Army gains bowl eligibility in each season, the schedule for each year from 2020-2025 will be:

2020: Independence Bowl
2021: ESPN Owned and Operated Bowl Game
2022: Independence Bowl
2023: ESPN Owned and Operated Bowl Game
2024: Independence Bowl
2025: ESPN Owned and Operated Bowl Game”
 
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Huskydog45 said:
How much does ranking have to do with going to a bowl? Yahoo has UConn at 70 after yesterdays win.
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Not much. It is about money at the end of the day. Right now we're everybody's favorite and having us at 70 is a very very kind view of the world. Liberty was massively overrated and I believed this going into the game.
 
shizzle787 said:
There are 41 bowls this year not counting the title game.

63 teams other than UConn have clinched bowl eligibility.

There are 43 other teams that have not clinched bowl eligibility but have a chance to finish with at least six wins.

There are 19 slots left.

We need 25 teams to fall short.
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Are you an actuary?
 
Vuce said:
Army has 3 games left - vs us, UMass and Navy so they can still get to 6 wins. We can prevent that on Saturday
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@Dizzy21 's point was that you can't have more than one win vs an FCS opponent count toward bowl eligibility. Army has two and at best can only get to 6 wins, thus ineligible. (sorry @huskymedic, didn't see your post till after I posted this).

App St also has two, but they're 5-5, so they can get to seven wins to get to a bowl and they'd need only one FCS win for six wins.
 
LoyalFanCT said:
the aac teams want it but do the acc teams with six or more wins want to go to a kind of unknown bowl game
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It’s one of 9 top tier ACC bowls. They currently have 9 eligible teams. Someone has to take it!
 
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