Bilas on Uconn left out of expansion

[noeynox]

@John , Don't laugh, the numbers don't lie.

 

[upstater]

^^^^The TV people have almost zilch to do with this. It's about the 2 goliaths of college sports.

The TV people have at least 51% of all of these decisions because no one wants to take a haircut revenue wise. You have to get the yea votes from the Northwesterns, the Vanderbilts, etc as much as you do from the Ohio States and the Alabamas. The only way to avoid the haircut is to bring in schools that the tv people value. Period.

What do you think the TV people are going to do when the B1G grabs whatever ACC schools they want? Punish them? They are over at Fox. The ACC is at ESPN. The B1G grabs those schools and ends up stealing prime real estate from under the SECs nose. You think the SEC hasn't thought of this?

The TV people will do nothing but watch because this is a fight to the death.

 

[upstater]

None of that is true. There won’t be two conferences. It will be 3-4. It may go to 2, but to do that they’d need to kick Vandy, Miss State, Northwestern, Rutgers, Maryland to the curb. That doesn’t happen until the break from the NCAA. The two conference model has to be just the elite.

Of course there will be more than 2, but I'm talking about a big 2. No more Power 5. No more Power 4. When the SEC and B1G swallow up the ACC, the other conferences really won't matter (for football).

 

[upstater]

Love my Huskies (class of ‘74) but let’s not ignore that this year’s basketball championship final was the lowest rated, and least watched, on record.

UConn doesn’t move the needle like UNC, Duke, Kansas, Kentucky, Indiana. We may be a “Blue Blood” program now, but we are not national TV must-see.

THAT is what the networks pay for.

If you looked inside the numbers, you'd see that the audience fell off when UConn got a 20 point lead. Then there's the other half of the equation. You have to play an opponent people want to see. This game was as big a foregone conclusion as 2004. No one gave SDSU a chance.

A tight game between UConn and, say, Miami would've had much higher ratings.

Consider that the Georgia vs. TCU national championship (a blowout) had lower ratings than any NCAA men's title game in recorded history, until UConn - SDSU.

Until last week, the 2nd lowest rated game in NCAA men's championship history was last year's Kansas vs. North Carolina, which only had 2m more viewers than UConn-SDSU this year. So much for blue bloods. They were tied with the 2021 championship for low viewers. In fact, every year since 2018 they've gone lower than all previous years (2019 excepted).

Last fact, streaming on the March Madness app was up 20%+ over last year. Nielsen can't account for all the people watching on Apps.

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

What do you think the TV people are going to do when the B1G grabs whatever ACC schools they want? Punish them? They are over at Fox. The ACC is at ESPN. The B1G grabs those schools and ends up stealing prime real estate from under the SECs nose. You think the SEC hasn't thought of this?

The TV people will do nothing but watch because this is a fight to the death.

So, you're saying that realignment is driven by the conferences acting on their own wishes with no input from tv partners?

 

[Kolumbo]

You're missing the forest for the trees.

There will be 2 national conferences.

The B1G wants a presence in the southeast. It should be beyond obvious by now that they want to be everywhere.

The SEC and the B1G are literally competing to take the prime real estate of the ACC. If one doesn't want to do that out of deference to Mickey Mouse, the other one will.

The TV people have almost zilch to do with this. It's about the 2 goliaths of college sports.

The idea that the states of Virginia and North Carolina would be considered a dilution to the states of Iowa and Nebraska? That's too much.

This is prime real estate. We're talking about 2 national conferences with 40 total members.

Fight the good fight upstater. I'm with you.

The ACC was always doomed in terms of CR. It has 4 count 'em 4 programs in a single market - Raleigh-Durham. Two of which are basketball privates. That kills your conference right there. Then it goes and invites a mish-mash of catholics/privates/commuter schools. That's called a double-tap. People argue against adding a 2nd program from states like Ohio and Florida because it's all about adding additional markets yet the ACC is stockpiled in North Carolina. Of course those programs water down the take. It's a complete cluster F and has no basis for building a surviving conference. The GOR is imprisoning FSU and Clemson with Wake, Duke, L-Ville, BCU, Cuse.

The B1G and SEC can manage with Norhwestern and Vandy just fine until those universities decide they don't want to be part of the NFL farm system.

 

[ScottVib]

If TV were fully in charge the conferences in general would look much different. Almost all of the P5 privates would be out as would be the second schools in the majority of states. Interestingly if they were allowed to start from scratch the Big XII would still largely be intact because the properties in that league are largely the second (or worse) choices throughout the markets they represent.

If there was going to be a full break-away you could easily see some sort of entity bankrolling the exit fees and allowing the national conference start up. I don't think that will happen, so Northwestern, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, etc win the lottery of having the right friends at the right time.

 

[upstater]

Fight the good fight upstater. I'm with you.

The ACC was always doomed in terms of CR. It has 4 count 'em 4 programs in a single market - Raleigh-Durham. Two of which are basketball privates. That kills your conference right there. Then it goes and invites a mish-mash of catholics/privates/commuter schools. That's called a double-tap. People argue against adding a 2nd program from states like Ohio and Florida because it's all about adding additional markets yet the ACC is stockpiled in North Carolina. Of course those programs water down the take. It's a complete cluster F and has no basis for building a surviving conference. The GOR is imprisoning FSU and Clemson with Wake, Duke, L-Ville, BCU, Cuse.

The B1G and SEC can manage with Norhwestern and Vandy just fine until those universities decide they don't want to be part of the NFL farm system.

Exactly

 

[upstater]

So, you're saying that realignment is driven by the conferences acting on their own wishes with no input from tv partners?

At this point, yes. Not earlier. This is game theory at this point. Can the SEC lock the B1G out of the Atlantic coast? That's the only thing that matters. TV will not determine this incredibly crucial game for the B1G, and even if it could, the B1G is at Fox. Fox would be thrilled to see it grab ACC/ESPN teams

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

At this point, yes. Not earlier. This is game theory at this point. Can the SEC lock the B1G out of the Atlantic coast? That's the only thing that matters. TV will not determine this incredibly crucial game for the B1G, and even if it could, the B1G is at Fox. Fox would be thrilled to see it grab ACC/ESPN teams

I don't see it that way and I don't think college presidents do either. College presidents are driving through the conference commissioners who are driven by tv executives and media consultants to grow revenues for their athletic departments. College presidents are leaders that have to balance issues across their entire enterprise, including academics and research endeavors. Do not underestimate that the presidents are somewhat collegial within their peer groups - they collaborate on education and research issues while competing against each other on the playing fields. College presidents play nice because these academics don't want to burn a bridge to their potential next employer as the presidents move within the world of academia. Conferences (i.e. a collective of college presidents) typically have gone out of their way to not pillage other conferences, except for the ACC doing so with regards to the BE football schools. And the BE's original composition of the C7 and larger football playing schools were ripe for the picking because it had two factions within it. No other major conference had such disfunction as the BE did and that was the reason for its demise.

If this was a game of conquering territory as you say, why hasn't the B1G done more pillaging? They hold the most power/resources yet have only added 2 schools (Maryland/Rutgers) in 2014 and one in 2011 (Nebraska). Now, their next two adds are LA schools - driven by Fox's desires to get the LA market. Fox is market-driven, as opposed to ESPN which is brand-driven.

I just don't see the game theory. I see it as money and stability driven not a game of war.

 

[upstater]

I don't see it that way and I don't think college presidents do either. College presidents are driving through the conference commissioners who are driven by tv executives and media consultants to grow revenues for their athletic departments. College presidents are leaders that have to balance issues across their entire enterprise, including academics and research endeavors. Do not underestimate that the presidents are somewhat collegial within their peer groups - they collaborate on education and research issues while competing against each other on the playing fields. College presidents play nice because these academics don't want to burn a bridge to their potential next employer as the presidents move within the world of academia. Conferences (i.e. a collective of college presidents) typically have gone out of their way to not pillage other conferences, except for the ACC doing so with regards to the BE football schools. And the BE's original composition of the C7 and larger football playing schools were ripe for the picking because it had two factions within it. No other major conference had such disfunction as the BE did and that was the reason for its demise.

If this was a game of conquering territory as you say, why hasn't the B1G done more pillaging? They hold the most power/resources yet have only added 2 schools (Maryland/Rutgers) in 2014 and one in 2011 (Nebraska). Now, their next two adds are LA schools - driven by Fox's desires to get the LA market. Fox is market-driven, as opposed to ESPN which is brand-driven.

I just don't see the game theory. I see it as money and stability driven not a game of war.

Saw a recent report (this week) in the Chronicle of High Ed about the job of College President. The vast majority of them now expect to be at only one school for 5 years max. When discussing the job, athletics rated as among the least of their concerns, it was right above "student life" at the very bottom.

Their biggest concern is putting together a budget (i.e. feeling as though they can't do it well) and fund raising. About 20 things below that before they come to athletics. The job has changed.

Why hasn't the B1G done more pillaging? I'm kind of stunned that you asked that. It's not enough that they took schools out the BE, B12, ACC and Pac10? They are in all corners of the country except for the southeast. That's their next destination.

 

[dayooper]

Saw a recent report (this week) in the Chronicle of High Ed about the job of College President. The vast majority of them now expect to be at only one school for 5 years max. When discussing the job, athletics rated as among the least of their concerns, it was right above "student life" at the very bottom.

Their biggest concern is putting together a budget (i.e. feeling as though they can't do it well) and fund raising. About 20 things below that before they come to athletics. The job has changed.

Why hasn't the B1G done more pillaging? I'm kind of stunned that you asked that. It's not enough that they took schools out the BE, B12, ACC and Pac10? They are in all corners of the country except for the southeast. That's their next destination.

They aren’t in the NW …. Yet

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

Saw a recent report (this week) in the Chronicle of High Ed about the job of College President. The vast majority of them now expect to be at only one school for 5 years max. When discussing the job, athletics rated as among the least of their concerns, it was right above "student life" at the very bottom.

Their biggest concern is putting together a budget (i.e. feeling as though they can't do it well) and fund raising. About 20 things below that before they come to athletics. The job has changed.

Why hasn't the B1G done more pillaging? I'm kind of stunned that you asked that. It's not enough that they took schools out the BE, B12, ACC and Pac10? They are in all corners of the country except for the southeast. That's their next destination.

I think you just made my point for me in that college presidents are prioritizing many other aspects of their jobs over athletics and therefore aren't playing a war game of territory- taking. And, by the B1G bringing in 3 schools over a 12 year period to date, that's one every four years. That doesn't feel like territory taking to me. That feels like thoughtful/selective additions guided by tv revenue growth strategy. What else could you explain it to be?

 

[CONN78SEJ]

Of course there will be more than 2, but I'm talking about a big 2. No more Power 5. No more Power 4. When the SEC and B1G swallow up the ACC, the other conferences really won't matter (for football).

What teams from the ACC would go to the B1G?

 

[upstater]

I think you just made my point for me in that college presidents are prioritizing many other aspects of their jobs over athletics and therefore aren't playing a war game of territory- taking. And, by the B1G bringing in 3 schools over a 12 year period to date, that's one every four years. That doesn't feel like territory taking to me. That feels like thoughtful/selective additions guided by tv revenue growth strategy. What else could you explain it to be?

Just wondering if you know the B1G well.

Because the refrain from all the football coaches and ADs over many, many years has been the talent deficit because the vast majority of good football players are from the SE. They've been eyeing Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas and even the DC area + Virginia for generations. This is crucial for them. I can't emphasize enough how much they want ACC territory.

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

Just wondering if you know the B1G well.

Because the refrain from all the football coaches and ADs over many, many years has been the talent deficit because the vast majority of good football players are from the SE. They've been eyeing Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas and even the DC area + Virginia for generations. This is crucial for them. I can't emphasize enough how much they want ACC territory.

They definitely want to get stronger ties into the best recruiting areas; they always have and always will. All these programs in every sport can and do find talent outside of their regions. Hell, even RE 1.0 /his staff had a decent pipeline to south Florida.

In the pre-NIL era it was mostly about relationships with high school coaches. In the NIL era it is about those relationships but also money opportunities. Thr B1G schools have always been pretty well positioned to get their share of NFL caliber talent - no matter where they lived. They have had and do still have the barrier of attracting top level southern/western high school talent to places in the rust belt/great lakes tundra areas.

It will be interesting to see if now above-board NIL money can sway more of that talent into B1G schools. And, to your point as they add a few western and southern schools in the years ahead it should help attract a few more southern/western kids that can get a game or two close/somewhat close to their home so mom and dad can catch a game a bit more easily.

 

[CL82]

Just wondering if you know the B1G well.

Because the refrain from all the football coaches and ADs over many, many years has been the talent deficit because the vast majority of good football players are from the SE. They've been eyeing Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas and even the DC area + Virginia for generations. This is crucial for them. I can't emphasize enough how much they want ACC territory.

After the ACC,GOR lapses, or at least when it’s getting close, we will see if this is correct. I believe it is.

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

After the ACC,GOR lapses, or at least when it’s getting close, we will see if this is correct. I believe it is.

Agree. The other thing the southern and western state presence does for the B1G schools is provide more local ties to their alumns that live in or snow bird to warmer climes. It's just another way to monetize their fanbase and donors.

 

[Kolumbo]

Some interesting comments. Not sure if he was serious about playing by the rules by my guess is, no one is: https://www.si.com/college/2023/04/13/unc-mack-brown-coach-football-on-nil-pay-for-play

"“We’re the NFL. We’re the mini-NFL,” says the 71-year-old Brown, the oldest active FBS head coach who enters his fifth season of his second stint at North Carolina. “It’s just like the NFL. That’s where we are headed. We will never see amateurism again. It’s gone. I hate it. I thought that’s who we are, what college football is.

"While North Carolina does have an NIL collective, the group does not involve itself in NIL matters with prospects, only current athletes, Brown says. In the NCAA’s updated NIL guidelines, the organization has made clear that NIL-related inducements to prospects are against the rules.

"“There are five kids this year that asked for money that I think we would have gotten last year that we didn’t,” says Brown, who is paid $5 million a year in salary. “That’s the question: Can we be good enough going by the rules? I think we still can, but it’s harder than it was two years ago.”"

 

[upstater]

What teams from the ACC would go to the B1G?All of them would but

All of them would but some I'm sure prefer the SEC

Name a team that would rather stay in the ACC

 

[CONN78SEJ]

All of them would but some I'm sure prefer the SEC

Name a team that would rather stay in the ACC

All of them, if they don’t want to be penalized by the GOR.

What about Notre Dame and the ACC? Do you really think they just give up those big tv contracts just to get an invite to the B1G?

The flow of events I do see coming down the pike, will make for a very favorable position for UConn in all sports. Right now, looks like three possible scenarios.

 

[billybud]

My hope is that the ACC is like a herd of elephants trapped in a cardboard stockade that stampede and go..."what ? That's all that was? "

 

[LoyalFanCT]

Schools like Duke and UVA have a lot of money. It's not clear what they would do if the ACC stays in place. I doubt most of the Ivy League colleges are looking to get into the B10 or SEC.

 

[upstater]

All of them, if they don’t want to be penalized by the GOR.

What about Notre Dame and the ACC? Do you really think they just give up those big tv contracts just to get an invite to the B1G?

The flow of events I do see coming down the pike, will make for a very favorable position for UConn in all sports. Right now, looks like three possible scenarios.

None of them is my answer. They'd all refer the other leagues and what they bring. Maryland already made that decision.

ND is half in the ACC and has already tried to join the B1G, so we know the administrators see the upside. The only ones who don't are the alumni.

 

[baggerbob]

Fight the good fight upstater. I'm with you.

The ACC was always doomed in terms of CR. It has 4 count 'em 4 programs in a single market - Raleigh-Durham. Two of which are basketball privates. That kills your conference right there. Then it goes and invites a mish-mash of catholics/privates/commuter schools. That's called a double-tap. People argue against adding a 2nd program from states like Ohio and Florida because it's all about adding additional markets yet the ACC is stockpiled in North Carolina. Of course those programs water down the take. It's a complete cluster F and has no basis for building a surviving conference. The GOR is imprisoning FSU and Clemson with Wake, Duke, L-Ville, BCU, Cuse.

The B1G and SEC can manage with Norhwestern and Vandy just fine until those universities decide they don't want to be part of the NFL farm system.

And those 4 schools are the reason the ACC is in trouble.
Too much power in the hands of North Carolina, the ACC home is there, the basketball tournament is there.