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1st is anyone suspicious that the BUG seemingly doubled their payout overnight?
2nd how does adding a 9th conference game increase inventory? Are they going to 13 games per season or just cancelling a non-conference game?
If the 9th game always features two conference members the conference is always guaranteed to control the revenue. Now, that may only represent a handful of games, but it would still potentially cut in half the OOC games played on the road. Additionally, any conference game not picked up by the 1st tier rights holders would be additional inventory for the BTN, which could be replayed numerous times.
With regard to your first point, it's possible they are forecasting too rich of a deal based upon some reports of valuations slowing down. One could bench mark ND's deal to see what percentage of a hike they received. But, the one thing that the B1G has over all other conferences is living alumni. I think Michigan and OSU have over 1,000,000 living alumni between the two of them.