Big East OOC thread '25/'26

[superjohn]

Willard doing good things at Villanova. Their next three games against power conference teams could determine post season chances. Go 2-1 and they're fine (expect loss at Michigan).

It's really too bad the Michigan and Wisconsin games are away. Nova has to beat Pitt at home.

 

[shizzle787]

It's really too bad the Michigan and Wisconsin games are away. Nova has to beat Pitt at home.

I wouldn't be stunned if Nova won at Wisconsin.

 

[HooperScooper]

Gee, none of us predicted this going into the season. 😀

“It’s the toughest damned thing I’ve ever been through in my lifetime coaching,” Pitino said after a 63-58 win over Ole Miss on Saturday at Madison Square Garden. “When you get eight new players it is so freaking difficult, everything is so new to them. There’s no continuity from the year before.”

St. John's Pitino challenged by program's lack of continuity: 'It's the toughest damned thing I've ever been through in my lifetime coaching' | Zagsblog

BY ALEJANDRO LOPEZ NEW YORK–No. 23 St. […]

www.zagsblog.com

 

[RuffRuff]

It's really too bad the Michigan and Wisconsin games are away. Nova has to beat Pitt at home.

Wouldn't matter where they play Michigan. If they can keep it under 20 it's success.

 

[alexd]

Gee, none of us predicted this going into the season. 😀

“It’s the toughest damned thing I’ve ever been through in my lifetime coaching,” Pitino said after a 63-58 win over Ole Miss on Saturday at Madison Square Garden. “When you get eight new players it is so freaking difficult, everything is so new to them. There’s no continuity from the year before.”

St. John's Pitino challenged by program's lack of continuity: 'It's the toughest damned thing I've ever been through in my lifetime coaching' | Zagsblog

BY ALEJANDRO LOPEZ NEW YORK–No. 23 St. […]

www.zagsblog.com

I can't believe dumping guys and having to find an entire new team for this season was forced on Pitino by outsiders. That just sucks for him. How unfair.

 

[AllHusky]

Don't follow the Pitinomen very closely. Did he lose/get rid of anybody that would have helped him either with continuity or PG problems?

 

[aceboon]

Don't follow the Pitinomen very closely. Did he lose/get rid of anybody that would have helped him either with continuity or PG problems?

I don't know what were the circumstances behind his departure but Simeon Wilcher started 25 games for them and played 25mpg, he left for Texas. Then there is the whole RJ Luis debacle but since he opted to stay in the draft(and go undrafted )rather than get paid more in NIL maybe he was just done with college altogether.

 

[navery12]

Creighton on pace for 28 points against Nebraska, rumors are that's not great

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Creighton on pace for 28 points against Nebraska, rumors are that's not great

This is the worst coached game I have ever seen from Creighton. Nebraska’s close outs are completely out of control. Either pump and let the close out go past, or pump and drive. Stop trying to shoot over a close out where the defender is in the air as you are shooting. Most middle school AAU teams know how to attack a defense like Nebraska’s.

 

[Captbluefin]

Don't follow the Pitinomen very closely. Did he lose/get rid of anybody that would have helped him either with continuity or PG problems?

Slick Rick is just saying that so he can pump his chest in March about how great a job he did with 8 new players.

 

[HooperScooper]

Creighton on pace for 28 points against Nebraska, rumors are that's not great

And only down 6 with 5 minutes left in the 1st half. A defensive battle. 😀

 

[HooperScooper]

Georgetown sticking with UNC. Down 32-30 with 4:30 left in the 1st half. On ESPN if you're looking for something other than football today.

 

[Drew]

Creighton on pace for 28 points against Nebraska, rumors are that's not great

GBR!!!!

 

[storrsroars]

It took Hoiberg five years to get Nebraska into the Dance, but looks like he'll be doing it twice in three years. Creighton seems to suck this year, but Nebraska should be making noise in the B1G.

 

[lonsharkin51]

We’ve truly become Gonzaga East. A lone national name in a regional mid-major conference

 

[shizzle787]

I’m calling it early. 0-2 today.

Losers: Georgetown and Creighton

71-30 (16-24).

Need to go 7-3 in final 10 P4 games.

Two ( Nova @ Michigan and Marquette @ Purdue) will be likely losses, but the league will be favored in five or six of the other eight.

 

[shizzle787]

We’ve truly become Gonzaga East. A lone national name in a regional mid-major conference

Awful take and not remotely statistically accurate. A mid-major league does not go 55-6 against the non-P4 and win at a 40-45% clip against the other major conferences.

 

[mike012]

Screw Creighton we better beat them by 40. The situation at Marquette is concerning. We do need them to maintain a top 25 program.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

I’m calling it early. 0-2 today.

Losers: Georgetown and Creighton

71-30 (16-24).

Need to go 7-3 in final 10 P4 games.

Two ( Nova @ Michigan and Marquette @ Purdue) will be likely losses, but the league will be favored in five or six of the other eight.

It would be more informative if you showed two sets of results: one with the entire conference membership and one with only the ten private schools.

 

[RuffRuff]

Screw Creighton we better beat them by 40. The situation at Marquette is concerning. We do need them to maintain a top 25 program.

Saw the Creighton beat down coming. Nebraska isn’t bad. Creighton is almost definitely NOT going to be an NCAA team.

Right now besides UConn and StJ, I’m having a hard time identifying which of these teams looks like a tourney team. I know we are looking at this backing in approach with these analytics, but who actually looks like a tourney team? Hall? Nova? Are they tourney teams or just the best of the rest?

 

[shizzle787]

Saw the Creighton beat down coming. Nebraska isn’t bad. Creighton is almost definitely NOT going to be an NCAA team.

Right now besides UConn and StJ, I’m having a hard time identifying which of these teams looks like a tourney team. I know we are looking at this backing in approach with these analytics, but who actually looks like a tourney team? Hall? Nova? Are they tourney teams or just the best of the rest?

Best of the rest is all they need to be. When it comes to eye test I would definitely say Seton Hall. For the fourth team, I think it will be one of Nova, Butler, Georgetown, Creighton, or Xavier. Someone from that group will emerge and go 12-8 or 13-7 in the league.

 

[WrenchFan69]

Pitt losing to Quinnipiac and Hofstra is a tough look

 

[RuffRuff]

Best of the rest is all they need to be. When it comes to eye test I would definitely say Seton Hall. For the fourth team, I think it will be one of Nova, Butler, Georgetown, Creighton, or Xavier. Someone from that group will emerge and go 12-8 or 13-7 in the league.

Have you seen the metrics of those other 4 teams? Right now, the only one that would look to have a chance is either Nova or Butler, and neither are teams whose rosters appear all that good. They would truly be backing in - not sure how excited I am about to have teams playing in the play in game.

This feels like a year where Uconn could honestly sweep the season. It won't happen, but it's as possible as ever. We can scratch around the bids all we want in this thread, but the league stinks. We have two real teams, a couple possible play-in type teams, and then a bunch of dumpster fires.

Two of our stronger brands Marquette & Creighton both look like borderline NIT teams.

 

[UConnTrumbull]

Man the Florida game is gonna be huge for us. No further comment.

 

[shizzle787]

20 games remain for the league to turn things around:

10 games against the P4:

Villanova @ Michigan (12/9)
UConn vs. Florida (MSG) (12/9)
UConn vs. Texas (12/12)
Marquette @ Purdue (12/13)
Creighton vs. Kansas State (12/13)
Villanova vs. Pittsburgh (12/13)
Seton Hall vs. Rutgers (12/13)
Villanova @ Wisconsin (12/19)
St. John's vs. Kentucky (Atlanta) (12/20)
Butler vs. Northwestern (12/20)

1 game against a mid-major:

DePaul @ Wichita State (12/13)

9 games against cupcakes:

Xavier vs. Missouri State (12/12)
Providence vs. Brown (12/9)
DePaul vs. Morgan State (12/9)
St. John's vs. Iona (12/13)
Georgetown vs. Saint Peter's (12/13)
Butler vs. NJIT (12/22)
Georgetown vs. Coppin State (12/22)
Creighton vs. Utah Tech (12/22)
St. John's vs. Harvard (12/23)

Odds of bids by wins:

18-2 or better: 5 bids
15-5 or better: 4 bids

I expect DePaul to lose to Wichita State, and the league to go 9-0 in the cupcake games.

That leaves us with 10 P4 games to determine the league's fate.

I think we need to go 6-4 in those 10 games to get 4 bids (7-3 would almost guarantee it).

I expect Villanova @ Michigan and Marquette @ Purdue to be losses.

We should be favored in six. The two I don't think we will be favored in are Villanova @ Wisconsin and St. John's vs. Kentucky.

If we win the six we are supposed to, and swipe one of the two aforementioned games, I expect 4 bids.

Traditionally, Big East teams need 21 wins before the start of the BE tournament to lock up an at-large bid. Due to the league being down a little, a few teams will need 22 or 23 based on SOS.

End of regular season (pre-BE tournament) win totals needed for bid (and at least 5th place finish in league to get bye in BET):

UConn- 20 (who are we kidding here)
St. John's- 20
Creighton- 20
Marquette- 20
Providence- 21
Georgetown- 21
Villanova- 21
Seton Hall- 22
Xavier- 22
Butler- 22
DePaul- 23

For example, Xavier is 7-3. Assuming they beat Missouri State (doomed), they will need to go 14-6 or better in league play to get a bid.

Seton Hall is another good example. They sit at 9-1 currently. If they beat Rutgers, they would need to go 12-8 to secure a bid.