Big East OOC thread '25/'26

[NJHusky]

5. Big East​

Overall non-con record: 61-26 (.701)
Record vs. other four high-major leagues: 13-21
Record vs. ranked opponents: 4-8
Record vs. KenPom Top 50: 7-17
Unbeatens: None

By any and every objective metric, the Big East is a firm fifth in the high-major hierarchy, even with UConn looking like a top-three team. The Huskies' dominance aside, the Big East looks fated to be the worst high-major in 2025-26.

College basketball just had its best November ever. This needs to be the scheduling standard moving forward

The season debut of Matt Norlander's Court Report also power-ranks the Power Five (hello, ACC!) and has more info on the future of Players Era

www.cbssports.com

Now take out UConn and there is only 1 win against a ranked team

 

[RuffRuff]

Now take out UConn and there is only 1 win against a ranked team

Tracking a bunch of tomato can wins isn't exhilerating. If it's not a P4 win, who cares.

 

[shizzle787]

NET update:

8. UConn
18. St. John's
23. Butler
44. Villanova
46. Seton Hall
105. Providence
108. Creighton
110. Xavier
114. Georgetown
167. Marquette
186. DePaul


We need Providence, Creighton, Xavier, and Georgetown to get into the top 100.

 

[shizzle787]

The league has 31 remaining non-conference contests and I will break them into three categories:

P4 games remaining (16)

Xavier vs. Cincinnati (12/5)
Marquette @ Wisconsin (12/6)
Seton Hall @ Kansas State (12/6)
St. John's vs. Ole Miss (12/6)
Georgetown @ North Carolina (12/7)
Creighton @ Nebraska (12/7)
Villanova @ Michigan (12/9)
UConn vs. Florida (MSG) (12/9)
UConn vs. Texas (12/12)
Marquette @ Purdue (12/13)
Creighton vs. Kansas State (12/13)
Villanova vs. Pittsburgh (12/13)
Seton Hall vs. Rutgers (12/13)
Villanova @ Wisconsin (12/19)
St. John's vs. Kentucky (Atlanta) (12/20)
Butler vs. Northwestern (12/20)


Other notable mid-major games remaining (5)

Providence vs. Rhode Island (12/6)
Butler vs. Boise State (12/6)
Villanova vs. Penn (12/6)
Xavier vs. Missouri State (12/12)
DePaul @ Wichita State (12/13)

Cupcake games (10)

UConn vs. East Texas A&M (12/5)
DePaul vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff (12/6)
Providence vs. Brown (12/9)
DePaul vs. Morgan State (12/9)
St. John's vs. Iona (12/13)
Georgetown vs. Saint Peter's (12/13)
Butler vs. NJIT (12/22)
Georgetown vs. Coppin State (12/22)
Creighton vs. Utah Tech (12/22)
St. John's vs. Harvard (12/23)

 

[shizzle787]

I definitely think there is still a slim possibility to get 5 bids, and I think 4 bids is 55/45 right now.

The league obviously needs to go 10-0 in the cupcake games.

With regards to the other notables, the game I am most concerned about is DePaul @ Wichita State. We need to go at least 4-1 in those games and hopefully DePaul can get the fifth win.

With regards to the P4 games, we are currently sitting at 13-21. Last year we got five teams in with an 18-23 record against the P4. We play 50 P4 games this year instead of 41 but I think a similar winning percentage will give us a chance at 5 bids.

If the league finishes 23-27 against the P4 and wins at least 14 of the other 15 games, there is almost no mathematical way the league finishes worse than 4th overall and gets less than four bids. Five would be 50/50 at that point.

Diving into the P4 games, this means the league needs to go 10-6 the rest of the way.

There are three games I don't see the league winning (I would put at under 25% odds):

Georgetown @ North Carolina
Villanova @ Michigan
Marquette @ Purdue

That leaves thirteen games to get ten wins from.

Games the league should win (I would put at over 65% odds):

St. John's vs. Ole Miss
UConn vs. Texas
Villanova vs. Pittsburgh

That leaves us with ten tossup games where we need to go 7-3 (I have my predictions next to each matchup):

Xavier vs. Cincinnati (L)
Marquette @ Wisconsin (L)
Seton Hall @ Kansas State (W)
Creighton @ Nebraska (L)
UConn vs. Florida (W)
Creighton vs. Kansas State (W)
Seton Hall vs. Rutgers (W)
Villanova @ Wisconsin (L)
St. John's vs. Kentucky (L)
Butler vs. Northwestern (W)

I have us going 5-5. Xavier winning tomorrow would be a nice bellwether in the right direction.

All in all, I think if we finish 21-29 against the P4 and go 14-1 against the non-P4, we will get 4 bids.

 

[ctchamps]

I definitely think there is still a slim possibility to get 5 bids, and I think 4 bids is 55/45 right now.

The league obviously needs to go 10-0 in the cupcake games.

With regards to the other notables, the game I am most concerned about is DePaul @ Wichita State. We need to go at least 4-1 in those games and hopefully DePaul can get the fifth win.

With regards to the P4 games, we are currently sitting at 13-21. Last year we got five teams in with an 18-23 record against the P4. We play 50 P4 games this year instead of 41 but I think a similar winning percentage will give us a chance at 5 bids.

If the league finishes 23-27 against the P4 and wins at least 14 of the other 15 games, there is almost no mathematical way the league finishes worse than 4th overall and gets less than four bids. Five would be 50/50 at that point.

Diving into the P4 games, this means the league needs to go 10-6 the rest of the way.

There are three games I don't see the league winning (I would put at under 25% odds):

Georgetown @ North Carolina
Villanova @ Michigan
Marquette @ Purdue

That leaves thirteen games to get ten wins from.

Games the league should win (I would put at over 65% odds):

St. John's vs. Ole Miss
UConn vs. Texas
Villanova vs. Pittsburgh

That leaves us with ten tossup games where we need to go 7-3 (I have my predictions next to each matchup):

Xavier vs. Cincinnati (L)
Marquette @ Wisconsin (L)
Seton Hall @ Kansas State (W)
Creighton @ Nebraska (L)
UConn vs. Florida (W)
Creighton vs. Kansas State (W)
Seton Hall vs. Rutgers (W)
Villanova @ Wisconsin (L)
St. John's vs. Kentucky (L)
Butler vs. Northwestern (W)

I have us going 5-5. Xavier winning tomorrow would be a nice bellwether in the right direction.

All in all, I think if we finish 21-29 against the P4 and go 14-1 against the non-P4, we will get 4 bids.

I applaud your effort and your optimism. I felt this was going to be a bad year for the BE. It was the wild west for NIL and this conference doesn't have as many schools with the same type of donor backing as the universities in the power conferences. We'll see how this plays out over the next two or three years with the "oversight" and rules about NIL.

My concern for the BE is it's gradually getting locked out of playing the P4 schools. It will be harder to build great resumes without that ability.

 

[shizzle787]

I applaud your effort and your optimism. I felt this was going to be a bad year for the BE. It was the wild west for NIL and this conference doesn't have as many schools with the same type of donor backing as the universities in the power conferences. We'll see how this plays out over the next two or three years with the "oversight" and rules about NIL.

My concern for the BE is it's gradually getting locked out of playing the P4 schools. It will be harder to build great resumes without that ability.

We aren't though. We play 50 P4 schools this year. We only played 41 last year. We have no issue scheduling P4 teams.

 

[shizzle787]

KenPom rankings:

6. UConn
18. St. John's
40. Villanova
41. Butler
56. Creighton
64. Seton Hall
71. Providence
80. Xavier
86. Marquette
87. Georgetown
117. DePaul

 

[shizzle787]

Evan Miya rankings:

5. UConn
16. St. John's
44. Butler
45. Villanova
55. Creighton
62. Seton Hall
76. Providence
77. Marquette
81. Georgetown
88. Xavier
129. DePaul

 

[Huskygamble19]

Oh no....UCONN playing my alma mater again. hope it is somewhat competitive. Hard to see it though.

 

[RuffRuff]

 

[superjohn]

Xavier beats Cincinnati again

 

[superjohn]

The big guy for Xavier was going crazy

 

[Leebo]

We can only hope this means we won't see Kobe again until next November

 

[shizzle787]

2-0 tonight.

Winners: UConn and Xavier

66-26 (14-21)

Good start to the weekend

 

[aceboon]

Maybe Xavier isn't too bad? I know there was some angst over their season opening loss but Santa Clara isn't a bum team, they actually spend decently for a midmajor and they've had some talent roll through there the past few years

 

[shizzle787]

Maybe Xavier isn't too bad? I know there was some angst over their season opening loss but Santa Clara isn't a bum team, they actually spend decently for a midmajor and they've had some talent roll through there the past few years

I had a feeling they were going to lose that game. Scheduling a top-100 team from a mid-major conference is not something a BE team should be doing.

 

[HooperScooper]

Paging @kobe......

 

[superjohn]

Xavier is 11-2 against Cincinnati since Xavier joined the Big East.

 

[Edward Sargent]

Watched the end of the X game. Whats with Tre Carroll? Cam Spencer on steroids. Is he always like that?

 

[3rdbass]

Watched the end of the X game. Whats with Tre Carroll? Cam Spencer on steroids. Is he always like that?

Didn't he play for FAU?

 

[uconngb]

We can only hope this means we won't see Kobe again until next November

Paging Kobe…..I believe that’s a Catholic school whipping up on the “big time” Big 12 program yet again. Once again luckily he can root for Houston in the NCAAs…..

Lolololololol

 

[uconngb]

Xavier is 11-2 against Cincinnati since Xavier joined the Big East.

But, but…..,Cincinnati plays in a better conference. So they are better, right????

Lolololololol

 

[ucp990411]

By the way. What’s Kobe up to. Busy taking his foot out of his mouth?

 

[HooperScooper]

Paging Kobe…..I believe that’s a Catholic school whipping up on the “big time” Big 12 program yet again. Once again luckily he can root for Houston in the NCAAs…..

Lolololololol

Not only a Church League team, but one that was predicted to finish 8th or 9th in the conference. 😂