Big East January '26 Thread - Take Two | Page 5 | The Boneyard

Big East January '26 Thread - Take Two

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RuffRuff said:
I fully agree - part of today's H1 recruiting world is recognizing your HS misses and fixing in the portal. You have literally no chance not using the portal this day and age. Hurley would never have a playable PG if he relied on HS recruiting.

The PG position for UConn is kind of like the WR position for the Patriots. Let someone else test drive them.
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Shaka doesn’t recruit well enough for his homegrown strategy to work. We’re talking about a guy who’s currently starting a player in a P5 with this offer list:

Caedin Hamilton Recruit Interests

247sports.com 247sports.com
 
auror said:
Their margin for error was pretty small after their non conference, and it's difficult on the road. They have 3 more Ls on their schedule for sure, which puts them at 14-6. If they go 13-7 I don't think they get in.
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We are saying the same thing. They are not going to win enough to get there. Too bad for Butler and Creighton, because it is going to be a pretty weak bubble this year.
 
nelsonmuntz said:
We are saying the same thing. They are not going to win enough to get there. Too bad for Butler and Creighton, because it is going to be a pretty weak bubble this year.
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Their place is a 6th man, but we should beat them twice. They are not good. That is not a tourney team. It's a 4 bid conference.
 
This one loss probably doesn’t officially close the door on Creighton. But it functionally does. There is probably space for one loss against UConn, @St Johns, and one more Q1 loss. Have to run the table outside of that

Meaning an 11-8 team that is 5-3 in BE play has to finish 9-3

I don’t see it anymore
 
REB1094 said:
This one loss probably doesn’t officially close the door on Creighton. But it functionally does. There is probably space for one loss against UConn, @St Johns, and one more Q1 loss. Have to run the table outside of that

Meaning an 11-8 team that is 5-3 in BE play has to finish 9-3

I don’t see it anymore
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With some of these teams really looking to firm up their resume to have a chance, UConn may be their only shot. I'd expect that game at Creighton to be super tough.
 
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Kolumbo said:
interrupt this program with some not necessarily key info. I saw it on some other message boards
Dayton and Saint Louis want in

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What a great idea! We'll add them and then rename our conference -- The Big Mid-West. They can refer to us as BMW.
Kinda provides more cachet if not more cash to the league. 🤪
 
aceboon said:
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What's more bizarre is that his per 40 shows career numbers in 4 categories plus essentially equal blocks. Do we know why he doesn't play?
1768672645647.png
 
The Hall isn’t in imminent danger, but this week has been really bad for them, especially with NC State taking a bad loss today. Really pulling for them, but they’ve been real spotty and need to capitalize on Q1 opportunities.
 
RuffRuff said:
Aidan Mahaney says hello
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Freeman is putting up those numbers this year though. He put up really good numbers in the Big 10 for 2 seasons and is putting up better numbers by the minute this year and he's now benched? Mahaney's per 40 with us showed better stats in assists and... nothing else. That's why he didn't play.

If anything mentioning Mahaney shows my point. Mahaney transfers and puts up worse numbers while Freeman transfers and puts up better numbers. Maybe he's actually a net negative for the team but his per minute production isn't the reason.
 
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willstafa24 said:
What's more bizarre is that his per 40 shows career numbers in 4 categories plus essentially equal blocks. Do we know why he doesn't play?View attachment 116091
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I just read that he had an injury to his meniscus during the summer and had it operated on, wouldn't surprise me if that has something to do with his issues this season.
 
willstafa24 said:
Freeman is putting up those numbers this year though. He put up really good numbers in the Big 10 for 2 seasons and is putting up better numbers by the minute this year and he's now benched? Mahaney's per 40 with us showed better stats in assists and... nothing else. That's why he didn't play.

If anything mentioning Mahaney shows my point. Mahaney transfers and puts up worse numbers while Freeman transfers and puts up better numbers. Maybe he's actually a net negative for the team but his per minute production isn't the reason.
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Two points:

-Look at his early-season bigger-minutes games. They are mostly weak punching bag teams. Padding stats.

-half his games he’s only played 10min or less. There’s a bit of caution that needs to be made when amplifying/extrapolating low-minute game sample sizes to a “per 40” metric
 
willstafa24 said:
Freeman is putting up those numbers this year though. He put up really good numbers in the Big 10 for 2 seasons and is putting up better numbers by the minute this year and he's now benched? Mahaney's per 40 with us showed better stats in assists and... nothing else. That's why he didn't play.

If anything mentioning Mahaney shows my point. Mahaney transfers and puts up worse numbers while Freeman transfers and puts up better numbers. Maybe he's actually a net negative for the team but his per minute production isn't the reason.
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Very interesting. Any theory as to why he’s fallen out of favor?
 
RuffRuff said:
StJ rounding into form and looks like they're firmly back in the driver seat as the second best in the Big East.
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They're clearly the 2nd best team in the Big East. If it wasn't for a lousy ending against Providence, they would be undefeated in Big East play just like UConn.

As I typed this, I am hoping Nova mounts a comeback.
 
St John’s looks like they may have figured out their problems. They are playing a lot better than earlier in the season.
 
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JustbrewitMan said:
Two points:

-Look at his early-season bigger-minutes games. They are mostly weak punching bag teams. Padding stats.

-half his games he’s only played 10min or less. There’s a bit of caution that needs to be made when amplifying/extrapolating low-minute game sample sizes to a “per 40” metric
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You're right about early season production but that confuses me even more. They grab a transfer from a Big 10 school who played really well for two seasons, then performs really well against the cupcakes to start the season and then just falls out of favor?

Although, looking at their roster they only play one other guy, Isaac Traudt 6-10, who is taller than Jason Green's 6-8. The difference between Freeman and him is that Traudt is a 35.6% 3pt shooter in over 5 attempts a game. He doesn't rebound (2.6) but I guess McDermott is looking to spread things instead of having a traditional big.
 
The Big East is in big trouble in the efficiency ratings. I will go back and check at some point, but I do not recall the huge variances between RPI, which is a simple wins and losses assessment of teams and their strength of schedule, and the efficiency ratings. For example, Tennessee and Kenucky are 55 and 56 in RPI, and 22 and 24 in KenPom. That means that Tennessee and Kentucky are struggling against weak schedules, but light up the teams they beat so it's all good in efficiency-land. Iowa is 42 in RPI and 18 in KenPom.

UConn is the other direction, 4 in RPI, but 11 in KenPom.

It is possible there is just a glitch or some kind of "house effect" in KenPom's model that is creating this dynamic.
 
Big East NET/KenPom ratings after Saturday:

UConn 8/10
St. John's 23/20
Villanova 31/27
Seton Hall 47/50
Butler 52/56
Creighton 55/51

As of this morning, UConn has 5 Q1 opportunites left (2x St. John's, @Villanova, @Butler, @Creighton) left in the regular season. If Villanova moves 1 more spot to 30 in the NET, that becomes 6 Q1 opportunites left.
 
nelsonmuntz said:
The Big East is in big trouble in the efficiency ratings. I will go back and check at some point, but I do not recall the huge variances between RPI, which is a simple wins and losses assessment of teams and their strength of schedule, and the efficiency ratings. For example, Tennessee and Kenucky are 55 and 56 in RPI, and 22 and 24 in KenPom. That means that Tennessee and Kentucky are struggling against weak schedules, but light up the teams they beat so it's all good in efficiency-land. Iowa is 42 in RPI and 18 in KenPom.

UConn is the other direction, 4 in RPI, but 11 in KenPom.

It is possible there is just a glitch or some kind of "house effect" in KenPom's model that is creating this dynamic.
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Why do you continue to use RPI? It isn't a metric anyone uses anymore, especially the NCAA tournament committee.
 
One concern I do have is that the BE slate will numb this UConn team down prior to the dance. They’re already showing signs of it will another 2 months of it give them the ability to simply turn it on when it matters?
 
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RuffRuff said:
One concern I do have is that the BE slate will numb this UConn team down prior to the dance. They’re already showing signs of it will another 2 months of it give them the ability to simply turn it on when it matters?
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It took an incredible comeback and overtime to beat Providence, we beat Seton Hall by 5 in a dogfight, and we only beat Georgetown by 2. We've yet to play 4 games against the top 2 teams besides us in the conference and we've yet to play Creighton on the road which has been a house of horrors for us.
 
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