Big East January '26 Thread - Take Two | Page 14 | The Boneyard

Big East January '26 Thread - Take Two

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Where the conference teams sit at the moment in terms of qualifying for the tournament


Group one - In, unless they intentionally sabotage the remainder of the season:
UConn

Group two - In, but a run similar to Seton Hall's past two weeks could put them on the bubble:
St. John's
Villanova

Group three - Winning Big East Tournament is only realistic path to tournament, miracle run in final eleven games may elevate them to at-large bids:
Creighton
Seton Hall

Group four - Winning Big East Tournament is only possible path to tournament:
Butler
DePaul
Xavier
Georgetown
Providence
Marquette
 
FfldCntyFan said:
Where the conference teams sit at the moment in terms of qualifying for the tournament


Group one - In, unless they intentionally sabotage the remainder of the season:
UConn

Group two - In, but a run similar to Seton Hall's past two weeks could put them on the bubble:
St. John's
Villanova

Group three - Winning Big East Tournament is only realistic path to tournament, miracle run in final eleven games may elevate them to at-large bids:
Creighton
Seton Hall

Group four - Winning Big East Tournament is only possible path to tournament:
Butler
DePaul
Xavier
Georgetown
Providence
Marquette
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Seton Hall is 5-6 in first 2 quads with no bad losses, low 50s in the analytics, and currently projected in the field by BracketMatrix (though that may change on Monday). They don't need a miracle run. They do need to turn it on a bit. But 7-4 probably gets them in and KenPom has them favorites in 6 of the remaining 11 games.
 
auror said:
Seton Hall is 5-6 in first 2 quads with no bad losses, low 50s in the analytics, and currently projected in the field by BracketMatrix (though that may change on Monday). They don't need a miracle run. They do need to turn it on a bit. But 7-4 probably gets them in and KenPom has them favorites in 6 of the remaining 11 games.
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How does a loss at home to DePaul avoid "bad loss" status?

Down the stretch, 7-4 may be beyond their reach, five, maybe six wins appears to be a realistic ceiling. Regardless, time will tell if they do or do not land in the dance.
 
FfldCntyFan said:
How does a loss at home to DePaul avoid "bad loss" status?

Down the stretch, 7-4 may be beyond their reach, five, maybe six wins appears to be a realistic ceiling. Regardless, time will tell if they do or do not land in the dance.
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Because it was at DePaul.
 
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auror said:
Losing at DePaul is Q2. Bottom of the Big East isn't that bad.
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Again, we will find out if they make the tournament or not. Selection Sunday will settle this.
 
FfldCntyFan said:
Again, we will find out if they make the tournament or not. Selection Sunday will settle this.
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They might make it, they might not make it but it certainly wouldn't take a miracle run in their last 11 games for them to maybe get an at large bid.

We don't have to wait until Selection Sunday to know that.
 
Taking a Q2 loss where you were easily handled (7 point loss but was 12 points with 1 minute left before garbage time points) by a middle of the pack conference team isn’t good and will only hurt a team that’s now fighting to get onto the right side of the bubble

Especially when that team only has one Q1 win and is now .500 in Q2. Maybe if they were comfortably in the field this would be fine. But now Seton Hall has an extremely small margin for error
 
auror said:
Sure, but the question isn't whether they make the tournament or not, it's whether they need a miracle to do so.
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They’re 4-5 in the BE. Their best win is over a fading NCSt. To get in I think they’ll need to go miminum 12-8 with a win against the top 3. Resume is not impressive.
 
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RuffRuff said:
They’re 4-5 in the BE. Their best win is over a fading NCSt. To get in I think they’ll need to go miminum 12-8 with a win against the top 3. Resume is not impressive.
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Check out some other team's on the bubbles. BracketMatrix has Ohio State in 64/81 fields.

Best win is at Northwestern or at Oregon without Shelstad.
Lost at Pittsburgh (worse than DePaul in NET). 5 other losses.
 
Interesting thinking about the All Big East teams at this part of the season.
AK, Zuby, Silas probably locks at this point. Bizjack is the leading scorer so he probably gets a spot. Ajayi is top 5 in RB in the country so he might be there too, leaving the last spot between Ross (pass), Reed, Tre Carroll and maybe Ball so far.

Freshman looks competitive too.
Braylon, James, Lewis, Jones are all solidly on it. I’m sure Vaaks will be too, but man what a terrible team player that kid is. 40% from the floor, 32% from 3 and just jacking shots he has no business taking. Reibe just hasn’t played enough in league play to compete for a first team spot
 
21 regular season wins should get Seton Hall in. (Since the BE reconfigured in 13/14, ZERO teams with 21 or more regular season wins have missed the field.) There is an outside shot they need 22 if something really weird happens (like in 2024 with a bunch of bid thieves).

Assuming they need to go 7-4, here is what needs to happen:

Must wins (all at home): DePaul, Georgetown, Xavier, Marquette, Providence

If they lose any of these, I believe they are done.

They need to win two of the following: Xavier (A), Nova (A), Creighton (A), Butler (A)

I am not expecting them to beat us here or beat St. John's at home.
 
RuffRuff said:
They’re 4-5 in the BE. Their best win is over a fading NCSt. To get in I think they’ll need to go miminum 12-8 with a win against the top 3. Resume is not impressive.
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To get to 12-8 they need to finish 8-3. I would like one of the SH defenders explain how that would be close to a reasonable expectation.
 
FfldCntyFan said:
To get to 12-8 they need to finish 8-3. I would like one of the SH defenders explain how that would be close to a reasonable expectation.
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They need to go 7-4. That gets them to 21 wins (the benchmark for a spot in the field by historical standards). The BE is better than last year and Xavier got in with 21 regular season wins.
 
shizzle787 said:
They need to go 7-4. That gets them to 21 wins (the benchmark for a spot in the field by historical standards). The BE is better than last year and Xavier got in with 21 regular season wins.
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A) I'm not sure they can go 7-4
B) I'm not sure they get in if they go 7-4
 
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FfldCntyFan said:
A) I'm not sure they can go 7-4
B) I'm not sure they get in if they go 7-4
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I agree on A. On B, I 100% believe 21 is the number. The BE has a higher Torvik than last year and Xavier got in with 21 wins. (No BE teams has failed to get in with 21+ win since the league reconfigured in 2013-and contrary to belief, this is not the worst or even second worst year in that time frame for the league). The Seton Hall team from 2024 had 20 (not 21) wins.

If Seton Hall goes 7-4 it means they win the five games they are supposed to AND collect at least one more Quad 1 win and at least one more Quad 2 game or they win four of the five games (gaining their first Quad 3 loss) and gain likely 2+ more Quad 1 wins.
 
FfldCntyFan said:
To get to 12-8 they need to finish 8-3. I would like one of the SH defenders explain how that would be close to a reasonable expectation.
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I haven't seen one Seton Hall defender. You posted something silly "miracle run in final eleven games may lift them to at-large bids" and people checked you on it.
 
superjohn said:
I haven't seen one Seton Hall defender. You posted something silly "miracle run in final eleven games may lift them to at-large bids" and people checked you on it.
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I'll put it to you then, how does Seton Hall finish up going 8-3 without it being a miracle run?
 
FfldCntyFan said:
I'll put it to you then, how does Seton Hall finish up going 8-3 without it being a miracle run?
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I think they get in with 7 wins in regular season and a loss in BET semis (so win over bad team and a win over mid team and loss to good team).

They have 5 easy home games left. Requires a win over St. John's at home (doable) and win at Butler or Creighton (1 of the 2 is doable).
 
auror said:
I think they get in with 7 wins in regular season and a loss in BET semis (so win over bad team and a win over mid team and loss to good team).

They have 5 easy home games left. Requires a win over St. John's at home (doable) and win at Butler or Creighton (1 of the 2 is doable).
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You are absolutely entitled to your opinion. I am entitled to mine. I would prefer being wrong but I don't see the committee selecting them as an at large if they win seven more BE regular games. I'll add to this that I think seven more regular season wins may be beyond their reach.
 
FfldCntyFan said:
Where the conference teams sit at the moment in terms of qualifying for the tournament


Group one - In, unless they intentionally sabotage the remainder of the season:
UConn

Group two - In, but a run similar to Seton Hall's past two weeks could put them on the bubble:
St. John's
Villanova

Group three - Winning Big East Tournament is only realistic path to tournament, miracle run in final eleven games may elevate them to at-large bids:
Creighton
Seton Hall

Group four - Winning Big East Tournament is only possible path to tournament:
Butler
DePaul
Xavier
Georgetown
Providence
Marquette
Expand ...
We're in agreement on groups 1+2, as well as most of group 4. But I would change up both the criteria as well as teams within group 3.

For starters, Seton Hall was firmly in before last week. Last week obviously hurt them, badly, but I think it would be a stretch to say they need a miracle run or to win the BET to make it. They obviously need to get back on track, but they still have enough on their resume to be in contention, as well as 5 Q1 and 1 Q2 opportunities remaining.

I also get that Butler is typically an afterthought and Creighton is usually one of the top dogs in the Big East, but Butler has an objectively stronger resume this season. They have have a better record (13-7 vs 12-8), better NET (50 vs 60), no losses in Q3 or Q4 (Creighton has a loss in Q3), a better combined Q1+2 record (4-7 vs 3-7, with the extra win being Q1) and a much stronger best win (NET #14 vs NET #34.)

I would say Seton Hall and Butler are firmly on the bubble and will make it with a strong finish. Creighton can place themselves firmly in the conversation by beating us at home, but without that win I think they need a BET run.
 
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Seton is still alive, just with a small margin for error. What they must do isn’t difficult, but being on a skid right now with that anemic offense definitely doesn’t make it surefire. But avoid bad losses and maybe a home win against St. John’s will do.

Butler has a better shot than Creighton thanks to that win over UVA, but I’d count on neither making it.
 
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