FfldCntyFan
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My error on location. The opponent still was DePaul.
Big East January '26 Thread - Take Two
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Losing at DePaul is Q2. Bottom of the Big East isn't that bad.
FfldCntyFan
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Again, we will find out if they make the tournament or not. Selection Sunday will settle this.
Sure, but the question isn't whether they make the tournament or not, it's whether they need a miracle to do so.
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They might make it, they might not make it but it certainly wouldn't take a miracle run in their last 11 games for them to maybe get an at large bid.
We don't have to wait until Selection Sunday to know that.
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Taking a Q2 loss where you were easily handled (7 point loss but was 12 points with 1 minute left before garbage time points) by a middle of the pack conference team isn’t good and will only hurt a team that’s now fighting to get onto the right side of the bubble
Especially when that team only has one Q1 win and is now .500 in Q2. Maybe if they were comfortably in the field this would be fine. But now Seton Hall has an extremely small margin for error
Especially when that team only has one Q1 win and is now .500 in Q2. Maybe if they were comfortably in the field this would be fine. But now Seton Hall has an extremely small margin for error
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They’re 4-5 in the BE. Their best win is over a fading NCSt. To get in I think they’ll need to go miminum 12-8 with a win against the top 3. Resume is not impressive.
Check out some other team's on the bubbles. BracketMatrix has Ohio State in 64/81 fields.
Best win is at Northwestern or at Oregon without Shelstad.
Lost at Pittsburgh (worse than DePaul in NET). 5 other losses.
Interesting thinking about the All Big East teams at this part of the season.
AK, Zuby, Silas probably locks at this point. Bizjack is the leading scorer so he probably gets a spot. Ajayi is top 5 in RB in the country so he might be there too, leaving the last spot between Ross (pass), Reed, Tre Carroll and maybe Ball so far.
Freshman looks competitive too.
Braylon, James, Lewis, Jones are all solidly on it. I’m sure Vaaks will be too, but man what a terrible team player that kid is. 40% from the floor, 32% from 3 and just jacking shots he has no business taking. Reibe just hasn’t played enough in league play to compete for a first team spot
AK, Zuby, Silas probably locks at this point. Bizjack is the leading scorer so he probably gets a spot. Ajayi is top 5 in RB in the country so he might be there too, leaving the last spot between Ross (pass), Reed, Tre Carroll and maybe Ball so far.
Freshman looks competitive too.
Braylon, James, Lewis, Jones are all solidly on it. I’m sure Vaaks will be too, but man what a terrible team player that kid is. 40% from the floor, 32% from 3 and just jacking shots he has no business taking. Reibe just hasn’t played enough in league play to compete for a first team spot
shizzle787
King Shizzle DCCLXXXVII of the Cesspool
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21 regular season wins should get Seton Hall in. (Since the BE reconfigured in 13/14, ZERO teams with 21 or more regular season wins have missed the field.) There is an outside shot they need 22 if something really weird happens (like in 2024 with a bunch of bid thieves).
Assuming they need to go 7-4, here is what needs to happen:
Must wins (all at home): DePaul, Georgetown, Xavier, Marquette, Providence
If they lose any of these, I believe they are done.
They need to win two of the following: Xavier (A), Nova (A), Creighton (A), Butler (A)
I am not expecting them to beat us here or beat St. John's at home.
Assuming they need to go 7-4, here is what needs to happen:
Must wins (all at home): DePaul, Georgetown, Xavier, Marquette, Providence
If they lose any of these, I believe they are done.
They need to win two of the following: Xavier (A), Nova (A), Creighton (A), Butler (A)
I am not expecting them to beat us here or beat St. John's at home.
FfldCntyFan
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To get to 12-8 they need to finish 8-3. I would like one of the SH defenders explain how that would be close to a reasonable expectation.
shizzle787
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They need to go 7-4. That gets them to 21 wins (the benchmark for a spot in the field by historical standards). The BE is better than last year and Xavier got in with 21 regular season wins.
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FfldCntyFan
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A) I'm not sure they can go 7-4
B) I'm not sure they get in if they go 7-4
shizzle787
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I agree on A. On B, I 100% believe 21 is the number. The BE has a higher Torvik than last year and Xavier got in with 21 wins. (No BE teams has failed to get in with 21+ win since the league reconfigured in 2013-and contrary to belief, this is not the worst or even second worst year in that time frame for the league). The Seton Hall team from 2024 had 20 (not 21) wins.
If Seton Hall goes 7-4 it means they win the five games they are supposed to AND collect at least one more Quad 1 win and at least one more Quad 2 game or they win four of the five games (gaining their first Quad 3 loss) and gain likely 2+ more Quad 1 wins.
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I haven't seen one Seton Hall defender. You posted something silly "miracle run in final eleven games may lift them to at-large bids" and people checked you on it.
FfldCntyFan
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I'll put it to you then, how does Seton Hall finish up going 8-3 without it being a miracle run?
I think they get in with 7 wins in regular season and a loss in BET semis (so win over bad team and a win over mid team and loss to good team).
They have 5 easy home games left. Requires a win over St. John's at home (doable) and win at Butler or Creighton (1 of the 2 is doable).
FfldCntyFan
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You are absolutely entitled to your opinion. I am entitled to mine. I would prefer being wrong but I don't see the committee selecting them as an at large if they win seven more BE regular games. I'll add to this that I think seven more regular season wins may be beyond their reach.
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We're in agreement on groups 1+2, as well as most of group 4. But I would change up both the criteria as well as teams within group 3.
For starters, Seton Hall was firmly in before last week. Last week obviously hurt them, badly, but I think it would be a stretch to say they need a miracle run or to win the BET to make it. They obviously need to get back on track, but they still have enough on their resume to be in contention, as well as 5 Q1 and 1 Q2 opportunities remaining.
I also get that Butler is typically an afterthought and Creighton is usually one of the top dogs in the Big East, but Butler has an objectively stronger resume this season. They have have a better record (13-7 vs 12-8), better NET (50 vs 60), no losses in Q3 or Q4 (Creighton has a loss in Q3), a better combined Q1+2 record (4-7 vs 3-7, with the extra win being Q1) and a much stronger best win (NET #14 vs NET #34.)
I would say Seton Hall and Butler are firmly on the bubble and will make it with a strong finish. Creighton can place themselves firmly in the conversation by beating us at home, but without that win I think they need a BET run.
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Seton is still alive, just with a small margin for error. What they must do isn’t difficult, but being on a skid right now with that anemic offense definitely doesn’t make it surefire. But avoid bad losses and maybe a home win against St. John’s will do.
Butler has a better shot than Creighton thanks to that win over UVA, but I’d count on neither making it.
Butler has a better shot than Creighton thanks to that win over UVA, but I’d count on neither making it.
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St. John’s hasn’t been playing well lately. Seton had them on the ropes and could’ve won if they didn’t brick every layup possible. A home win is entirely doable
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Because I don't think they have to win 8 regular season games to get in and winning 7 or 8 with their remaining regular season schedule wouldn't be a miracle. They might fall apart and have some injuries and lose 7 of them, that wouldn't be a miracle either.
nelsonmuntz
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Let’s see what everyone else does. The SEC and ACC have been winning games in exactly the right combination but I don’t see that holding up for another 6 weeks.
20 wins is a reasonable target for the Big East bubbles, but a lot can happen with everyone else.
20 wins is a reasonable target for the Big East bubbles, but a lot can happen with everyone else.
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Cbs just mocked us as a 2 seed...not that that's meaningful in the grand scheme of things, but there is very little rhyme or reason to who gets in or what ranking any more - the advanced stats are all an illusion
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We are 100% a 1 seed right now. Our OOC resume is one of the best out there. Anyone not mocking us a 1 seed is click bait.
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Of the 82 brackets bracketmatrix.com keeps track of 75 have UConn a 1 seed and 7 have them a 2 seed. Same as Michigan. Arizona and Duke are the only teams with a 100% consensus 1 seed.
I overall agree with you but right now its pretty close with those top five teams: Zona, Michigan, Duke, UConn, Nebraska.
nelsonmuntz
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Thanks for the data I was shooting from the hip a bit with sample size of 1, @RuffRuff where is your clip pulled from?
What I'm trying to not so eloquently say is 9% of brackets don't have the #2 ranked team as a #1 seed so a lot of the claims in this discussion seem silly as far as bubble teams and what they need to make the tourney, where all the data and analytics becomes a bit of a crap shoot at that level (especially at this point in the season) and we're all ultimately left scratching our heads for 4 or 5 teams wondering how the heck they got in over team xyz
Of course, thus the "right now"
Nebraska vs Michigan should be quite interesting to get a good view on Nebraska's claim to a #1 seed.
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