Big East bubble picture as of today

[nelsonmuntz]

Maybe I see this wrong but once a league is “anointed” as ”special” early in the season there’s nothing much they have to do to not hurt themselves. Their losses in league will be forgiven as good losses. Their BE is not an anointed league.

It is weird that there is a consensus by roughly half the regular posters on the Boneyard that there is a conspiracy to hurt the Big East and UConn, but apparently that conspiracy does not extend to preventing UConn from winning a national championship. Twice.

 

[auror]

It is weird that there is a consensus by roughly half the regular posters on the Boneyard that there is a conspiracy to hurt the Big East and UConn, but apparently that conspiracy does not extend to preventing UConn from winning a national championship. Twice.

You have to look at it narratively like a hero's journey. UConn is the hero that overcomes all odds, including mega conspiracies. The Huskies are more powerful than those foes.

• The call to adventure: Dan Hurley is offered the UConn job.
• Refusal of the call: Almost rejects the job because he loves Rhode Island so much.
• Meeting the mentor: Brings Jim Calhoun back into the fold.
• Crossing the threshold: UConn rejoins the Big East.
• Road of trials: January 2023.
• Approach to the inmost cave: Final Four 2023
• The ordeal: The refs and conspiracy against UConn.
• The reward: Back to back titles.
• The road back: Lose 4 starters to the NBA.
• Resurrection: Hurley turns down the Lakers job.
• Return with the elixir: Start of 2025 season.

 

[HooperScooper]

You have to look at it narratively like a hero's journey. UConn is the hero that overcomes all odds, including mega conspiracies. The Huskies are more powerful than those foes.

• The call to adventure: Dan Hurley is offered the UConn job.
• Refusal of the call: Almost rejects the job because he loves Rhode Island so much.
• Meeting the mentor: Brings Jim Calhoun back into the fold.
• Crossing the threshold: UConn rejoins the Big East.
• Road of trials: January 2023.
• Approach to the inmost cave: Final Four 2023
• The ordeal: The refs and conspiracy against UConn.
• The reward: Back to back titles.
• The road back: Lose 4 starters to the NBA.
• Resurrection: Hurley turns down the Lakers job.
• Return with the elixir: Start of 2025 season.

Were you just smoking weed with Jaydumo20? Lol

 

[jibsey]

It is weird that there is a consensus by roughly half the regular posters on the Boneyard that there is a conspiracy to hurt the Big East and UConn, but apparently that conspiracy does not extend to preventing UConn from winning a national championship. Twice.

What I’m really referring to is the nonstop hype over the SEC. Look I understand they are good teams but they are being talked about and built up in a way that is overdone.
Based on what we’ve heard, 7 of the final 8 teams should be from there with Duke being number 8. Not a conspiracy but early hype that hangs on all season now that non conference is over. We’ll see if they are proven wrong in the tourney.

 

[businesslawyer]

Maybe I see this wrong but once a league is “anointed” as ”special” early in the season there’s nothing much they have to do to not hurt themselves. Their losses in league will be forgiven as good losses. Their BE is not an anointed league.

Conferences being “anointed” is normally not just some writers with beers doing such. Normally, it follows a conference being dominant in November and December in OOC play. The Big East has been anointed in the past when they deserve it. This year, no question, the SEC deserved it.

 

[JungleLobo]

No mention of The Teddy Allen?

 

[freescooter]

I checked, and there are still games left on the schedule that will impact which teams get bids.

No kidding? The season’s not over yet? Has the media been informed?

Honestly, of course there are but this is a thread discussing how various prognosticators think the bids will go. In effect all of these projections are based on what has happened to date and what they think will happen going forward. Who they project will win each league. Sometimes they are right. Sometimes not.

 

[auror]

No mention of The Teddy Allen?

That fits less of the Campbell arc and more of the Hollywood 3 act structure. That's the end of Act 1, then we get the Luke Murray new offense training montage in Act 2.

 

[Hey Adrien!]

I see 4 teams.

Marquette, UConn and St. John's keep doing their thing.

With leagues getting bigger, I see more cannibalization in the other four big conferences, which means more 11-, 12- and 13-loss teams getting in.

Based on that, Creighton has the best shot of the other teams to get in. 40th toughest non-con highlighted w/ a win over Kansas. Nova's non-conference is ranked 321st, Xavier 251st, Georgetown 360th.

Out of those three, Xavier has the best shot if they finish the season with 12 losses or less. Freemantle's injury only made him miss three games and they have the most difficult stretch of their schedule lined up visiting Marquette, Johnnies, hosting UConn and then visiting Creighton. A 2-2 stretch there will go a long way.

In summary:

Teams in: Marquette, UConn, St. John's
Work to do: Creighton, Xavier

If I were a betting man, I'd say we get 4 teams in.

 

[TMB4405]

I wish I was wrong but from my biased perch the league is just not very good. Three seems like the correct number.

 

[jibsey]

Conferences being “anointed” is normally not just some writers with beers doing such. Normally, it follows a conference being dominant in November and December in OOC play. The Big East has been anointed in the past when they deserve it. This year, no question, the SEC deserved it.

So I’m watching Providence and Nova last night, teams that were not pushovers to us actually recently right? According to most they aren’t getting in but they have lost a bunch of games, many close. Both teams seem to be improving as the season goes on but it doesn’t matter because of what happened early.

 

[freescooter]

So I’m watching Providence and Nova last night, teams that were not pushovers to us actually recently right? According to most they aren’t getting in but they have lost a bunch of games, many close. Both teams seem to be improving as the season goes on but it doesn’t matter because of what happened early.

Conference games can help or hurt depending on how a conference is viewed. If you have a league that isn’t having a good year, and your team had a bad non-conference season, conference wins aren't given as much weight. You are seen as the most Honest man at a political convention.
one problem with the way we schedule now is it is rare to have inter league games after mid-December. But teams are really works in progress in the early season. So teams and conferences get judged based on early results and that hurts or helps after everybody changes.

 

[Kolumbo]

In 2023-2024 the Big East lost out partly because UConn was so dominant and only UConn, Marquette and Creighton made the dance. UConn lost only 2 big east games, SHU and Creighton. So SJU and PC both lost 2 games to UConn. SJU actually lost 3 games including the BE Tournament. I don't think the committee factored in those losses. Not sure how it will play out this year.

 

[Hoophound]

We’ve moved into the “SEC and B1G are head and shoulders above the rest” territory. The media has made their choice. The Big East will likely not bounce back to anything better than 3 or maybe 4 teams going forward.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

In 2023-2024 the Big East lost out partly because UConn was so dominant and only UConn, Marquette and Creighton made the dance. UConn lost only 2 big east games, SHU and Creighton. So SJU and PC both lost 2 games to UConn. SJU actually lost 3 games including the BE Tournament. I don't think the committee factored in those losses. Not sure how it will play out this year.

The Big East lost out a year ago because it had too many bubble teams (Xavier, Butler, St. Johns and Providence) that beat each other up, and because Villanova and Seton Hall pulled a Rutgers, caking their pants in the non-conference, and then finishing .500 or better in conference play to hurt teams that had a chance of getting bids. A lot had to go wrong for the bubble teams to have 4 teams as strong as those 4, in a league as strong as the Big East was last year, all get boxed out of NCAA bids.

 

[boba]

Were you just smoking weed with Jaydumo20? Lol

There's a muse in that thread, Campbell forgot the beers and bongs step. Or is that just background?

 

[MU in MKE]

What I’m really referring to is the nonstop hype over the SEC. Look I understand they are good teams but they are being talked about and built up in a way that is overdone.
Based on what we’ve heard, 7 of the final 8 teams should be from there with Duke being number 8. Not a conspiracy but early hype that hangs on all season now that non conference is over. We’ll see if they are proven wrong in the tourney.

Yes, but the extent to which the Hyperbole exists depends on where u get your cbb news. espn? SEC heavy blogs? Vs Fox/CBS and blogs like field of 68 etc. It's like two different worlds.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

The Big East is looking better for 4 bids. I don't see a likely path for Xavier to slip into the mix without knocking St. Johns, Creighton or UConn out. 20 overall wins should be enough for every Big East team to get a bid, with the exception of Georgetown, who probably needs 21 or 22.

The biggest threat to the Big East getting 4 bids is Villanova. They have no shot at an at-large, but they can hurt the resumes of the other Big East bubble teams because Villanova is not a bad team.

 

[shizzle787]

The Big East is looking better for 4 bids. I don't see a likely path for Xavier to slip into the mix without knocking St. Johns, Creighton or UConn out. 20 overall wins should be enough for every Big East team to get a bid, with the exception of Georgetown, who probably needs 21 or 22.

The biggest threat to the Big East getting 4 bids is Villanova. They have no shot at an at-large, but they can hurt the resumes of the other Big East bubble teams because Villanova is not a bad team.

Villanova and Xavier both have a shot. Once Xavier gets past the next two weeks, their schedule clears up considerably. It looks like we will get four with a fifth possibly now.

 

[RuffRuff]

Villanova and Xavier both have a shot. Once Xavier gets past the next two weeks, their schedule clears up considerably. It looks like we will get four with a fifth possibly now.

Better chance of not on the 5th. Xavier has zero quality OOC wins.

 

[shizzle787]

Better chance of not on the 5th. Xavier has zero quality OOC wins.

They have zero bad losses.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

While I am not happy about this being the case, I am convinced that the powers that be will have a soft cap at three in terms of bids they will make available to the BE and it will take a very solid resume for a fourth school to get a bid.

I also believe that the SEC as a whole will receive far too much credit for their performance against the ACC and that may end up giving them twelve or thirteen bids.

 

[RuffRuff]

They have zero bad losses.

Still think they’re well on the wrong side. The committee usually awards what a team can be, not how not bad they are. They will be in 5th gear in our game next weekend. If Liam isn’t back, I can easily see a loss coming.

 

[shizzle787]

Still think they’re well on the wrong side. The committee usually awards what a team can be, not how not bad they are. They will be in 5th gear in our game next weekend. If Liam isn’t back, I can easily see a loss coming.

Right now they are about 10 teams out, but their last six games could see them possibly go 6-0.