Big East bubble picture as of today | Page 2 | The Boneyard

Big East bubble picture as of today

nelsonmuntz said:
I checked, and there are still games left on the schedule that will impact which teams get bids.
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No kidding? The season’s not over yet? Has the media been informed?

Honestly, of course there are but this is a thread discussing how various prognosticators think the bids will go. In effect all of these projections are based on what has happened to date and what they think will happen going forward. Who they project will win each league. Sometimes they are right. Sometimes not.
 
I see 4 teams.

Marquette, UConn and St. John's keep doing their thing.

With leagues getting bigger, I see more cannibalization in the other four big conferences, which means more 11-, 12- and 13-loss teams getting in.

Based on that, Creighton has the best shot of the other teams to get in. 40th toughest non-con highlighted w/ a win over Kansas. Nova's non-conference is ranked 321st, Xavier 251st, Georgetown 360th.

Out of those three, Xavier has the best shot if they finish the season with 12 losses or less. Freemantle's injury only made him miss three games and they have the most difficult stretch of their schedule lined up visiting Marquette, Johnnies, hosting UConn and then visiting Creighton. A 2-2 stretch there will go a long way.

In summary:

Teams in: Marquette, UConn, St. John's
Work to do: Creighton, Xavier

If I were a betting man, I'd say we get 4 teams in.
 
businesslawyer said:
Conferences being “anointed” is normally not just some writers with beers doing such. Normally, it follows a conference being dominant in November and December in OOC play. The Big East has been anointed in the past when they deserve it. This year, no question, the SEC deserved it.
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So I’m watching Providence and Nova last night, teams that were not pushovers to us actually recently right? According to most they aren’t getting in but they have lost a bunch of games, many close. Both teams seem to be improving as the season goes on but it doesn’t matter because of what happened early.
 
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jibsey said:
So I’m watching Providence and Nova last night, teams that were not pushovers to us actually recently right? According to most they aren’t getting in but they have lost a bunch of games, many close. Both teams seem to be improving as the season goes on but it doesn’t matter because of what happened early.
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Conference games can help or hurt depending on how a conference is viewed. If you have a league that isn’t having a good year, and your team had a bad non-conference season, conference wins aren't given as much weight. You are seen as the most Honest man at a political convention.
one problem with the way we schedule now is it is rare to have inter league games after mid-December. But teams are really works in progress in the early season. So teams and conferences get judged based on early results and that hurts or helps after everybody changes.
 
TMB4405 said:
I wish I was wrong but from my biased perch the league is just not very good. Three seems like the correct number.
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I agree with you. UConn, Marquette, and St John’s are the only legit teams. Would you bet on Nova or Xavier in a game on a neutral court against Miss St, or Texas A&M? I wouldn’t. It’s hard to argue the resume of a team with losses to Columbia and St Joes.
 
In 2023-2024 the Big East lost out partly because UConn was so dominant and only UConn, Marquette and Creighton made the dance. UConn lost only 2 big east games, SHU and Creighton. So SJU and PC both lost 2 games to UConn. SJU actually lost 3 games including the BE Tournament. I don't think the committee factored in those losses. Not sure how it will play out this year.
 
We’ve moved into the “SEC and B1G are head and shoulders above the rest” territory. The media has made their choice. The Big East will likely not bounce back to anything better than 3 or maybe 4 teams going forward.
 
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Kolumbo said:
In 2023-2024 the Big East lost out partly because UConn was so dominant and only UConn, Marquette and Creighton made the dance. UConn lost only 2 big east games, SHU and Creighton. So SJU and PC both lost 2 games to UConn. SJU actually lost 3 games including the BE Tournament. I don't think the committee factored in those losses. Not sure how it will play out this year.
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The Big East lost out a year ago because it had too many bubble teams (Xavier, Butler, St. Johns and Providence) that beat each other up, and because Villanova and Seton Hall pulled a Rutgers, caking their pants in the non-conference, and then finishing .500 or better in conference play to hurt teams that had a chance of getting bids. A lot had to go wrong for the bubble teams to have 4 teams as strong as those 4, in a league as strong as the Big East was last year, all get boxed out of NCAA bids.
 
HooperScooper said:
Were you just smoking weed with Jaydumo20? Lol
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There's a muse in that thread, Campbell forgot the beers and bongs step. Or is that just background?
 
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jibsey said:
What I’m really referring to is the nonstop hype over the SEC. Look I understand they are good teams but they are being talked about and built up in a way that is overdone.
Based on what we’ve heard, 7 of the final 8 teams should be from there with Duke being number 8. Not a conspiracy but early hype that hangs on all season now that non conference is over. We’ll see if they are proven wrong in the tourney.
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Yes, but the extent to which the Hyperbole exists depends on where u get your cbb news. espn? SEC heavy blogs? Vs Fox/CBS and blogs like field of 68 etc. It's like two different worlds.
 
The Big East is looking better for 4 bids. I don't see a likely path for Xavier to slip into the mix without knocking St. Johns, Creighton or UConn out. 20 overall wins should be enough for every Big East team to get a bid, with the exception of Georgetown, who probably needs 21 or 22.

The biggest threat to the Big East getting 4 bids is Villanova. They have no shot at an at-large, but they can hurt the resumes of the other Big East bubble teams because Villanova is not a bad team.
 
nelsonmuntz said:
The Big East is looking better for 4 bids. I don't see a likely path for Xavier to slip into the mix without knocking St. Johns, Creighton or UConn out. 20 overall wins should be enough for every Big East team to get a bid, with the exception of Georgetown, who probably needs 21 or 22.

The biggest threat to the Big East getting 4 bids is Villanova. They have no shot at an at-large, but they can hurt the resumes of the other Big East bubble teams because Villanova is not a bad team.
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Villanova and Xavier both have a shot. Once Xavier gets past the next two weeks, their schedule clears up considerably. It looks like we will get four with a fifth possibly now.
 
shizzle787 said:
Villanova and Xavier both have a shot. Once Xavier gets past the next two weeks, their schedule clears up considerably. It looks like we will get four with a fifth possibly now.
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Better chance of not on the 5th. Xavier has zero quality OOC wins.
 
While I am not happy about this being the case, I am convinced that the powers that be will have a soft cap at three in terms of bids they will make available to the BE and it will take a very solid resume for a fourth school to get a bid.

I also believe that the SEC as a whole will receive far too much credit for their performance against the ACC and that may end up giving them twelve or thirteen bids.
 
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shizzle787 said:
They have zero bad losses.
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Still think they’re well on the wrong side. The committee usually awards what a team can be, not how not bad they are. They will be in 5th gear in our game next weekend. If Liam isn’t back, I can easily see a loss coming.
 
RuffRuff said:
Still think they’re well on the wrong side. The committee usually awards what a team can be, not how not bad they are. They will be in 5th gear in our game next weekend. If Liam isn’t back, I can easily see a loss coming.
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Right now they are about 10 teams out, but their last six games could see them possibly go 6-0.
 
FfldCntyFan said:
While I am not happy about this being the case, I am convinced that the powers that be will have a soft cap at three in terms of bids they will make available to the BE and it will take a very solid resume for a fourth school to get a bid.

I also believe that the SEC as a whole will receive far too much credit for their performance against the ACC and that may end up giving them twelve or thirteen bids.
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Don’t think it works like that: the MW got six last year. Their “cap” if the powers that be had a say would be 1 or 2.
 
What I find odd over the past few years since Connecticut joined the Big East is that the league is averaging less bids overall than it did in its initial 6 years.

For me that makes no sense considering how good of an addition UConn has been for the league (2xNC).

But it seems like the league overall dropped in quality after UConn joined even though UConn has performee really well.

The 2014-19 the Big East averaged 5.33 bids per year with 10 members

2021-24 it averaged 4.5 bids per year despite having one additional top notch program.

I really hope the Big East can go back to routinely getting 5-6 bids on an average year and 7 on a really good year like it did back in 2017.

I know quality of seeds matter a lot. But sending a lot of teams is also good so we can get those units $$$

Also, does any of this mean we are probably better off sticking at 11 than adding that 12th member? Or am I overthinking it? Not enough data?
 
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ecasadoSBU said:
What I find odd over the past few years since Connecticut joined the Big East is that the league is averaging less bids overall than it did in its initial 6 years.

For me that makes no sense considering how good of an addition UConn has been for the league (2xNC).

But it seems like the league overall dropped in quality after UConn joined even though UConn has performee really well.

The 2014-19 the Big East averaged 5.33 bids per year with 10 members

2021-24 it averaged 4.5 bids per year despite having one additional top notch program.

I really hope the Big East can go back to routinely getting 5-6 bids on an average year and 7 on a really good year like it did back in 2017.

I know quality of seeds matter a lot. But sending a lot of teams is also good so we can get those units $$$

Also, does any of this mean we are probably better off sticking at 11 than adding that 12th member? Or am I overthinking it? Not enough data?
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The drop off of Nova once Jay Wright retired and injuries to key players on teams that would've been tournament bound explains it.
 
ecasadoSBU said:
What I find odd over the past few years since Connecticut joined the Big East is that the league is averaging less bids overall than it did in its initial 6 years.

For me that makes no sense considering how good of an addition UConn has been for the league (2xNC).

But it seems like the league overall dropped in quality after UConn joined even though UConn has performee really well.

The 2014-19 the Big East averaged 5.33 bids per year with 10 members

2021-24 it averaged 4.5 bids per year despite having one additional top notch program.

I really hope the Big East can go back to routinely getting 5-6 bids on an average year and 7 on a really good year like it did back in 2017.

I know quality of seeds matter a lot. But sending a lot of teams is also good so we can get those units $$$
Expand ...
Not sure you’ve been paying attention but the collegiate landscape has changed significantly since 2014. There is thing called conference realignment, NIL and portal that’s generally minimizing non football conferences ;).
 
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ecasadoSBU said:
What I find odd over the past few years since Connecticut joined the Big East is that the league is averaging less bids overall than it did in its initial 6 years.

For me that makes no sense considering how good of an addition UConn has been for the league (2xNC).

But it seems like the league overall dropped in quality after UConn joined even though UConn has performee really well.

The 2014-19 the Big East averaged 5.33 bids per year with 10 members

2021-24 it averaged 4.5 bids per year despite having one additional top notch program.

I really hope the Big East can go back to routinely getting 5-6 bids on an average year and 7 on a really good year like it did back in 2017.

I know quality of seeds matter a lot. But sending a lot of teams is also good so we can get those units $$$

Also, does any of this mean we are probably better off sticking at 11 than adding that 12th member? Or am I overthinking it? Not enough data?
Expand ...
20 conference games= more losses on average. However, this will even itself out once the tournament expands in the next year or two.
 
RuffRuff said:
Not sure you’ve been paying attention but the collegiate landscape has changed significantly since 2014. There is thing called conference realignment, NIL and portal that’s generally minimizing non football conferences ;).
Expand ...

The Big East has had a terrible run over that stretch, only winning 40% of the national championships.
 
nelsonmuntz said:
The Big East has had a terrible run over that stretch, only winning 40% of the national championships.
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If the past is what dictated the future in a rapidly changing world, then UNLV would still be kicking @ss.

How did those two Nova titles help them into their current state of affairs? The SEC was a laughing stock 5-6 years ago and is now dominant and will break the bid record. Point is things change fast, referencing BE trends from 10 years ago is ridiculous.
 
nelsonmuntz said:
The Big East has had a terrible run over that stretch, only winning 40% of the national championships.
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The AAC once had back to back titles with us and Louisville too. One dominant program does not mean the entire league is strong and deserves more bids. Last year I think the league should have gotten one or two more bids. This season the Big East was horrible out of conference and doesn’t deserve more than 3. There’s 12 or 13 SEC teams right now with better records than us and they are playing harder schedules. Given where NIL is going it seems things will likely get worse not better for the conference going forward.
 
ecasadoSBU said:
What I find odd over the past few years since Connecticut joined the Big East is that the league is averaging less bids overall than it did in its initial 6 years.

For me that makes no sense considering how good of an addition UConn has been for the league (2xNC).

But it seems like the league overall dropped in quality after UConn joined even though UConn has performee really well.

The 2014-19 the Big East averaged 5.33 bids per year with 10 members

2021-24 it averaged 4.5 bids per year despite having one additional top notch program.

I really hope the Big East can go back to routinely getting 5-6 bids on an average year and 7 on a really good year like it did back in 2017.

I know quality of seeds matter a lot. But sending a lot of teams is also good so we can get those units $$$

Also, does any of this mean we are probably better off sticking at 11 than adding that 12th member? Or am I overthinking it? Not enough data?
Expand ...
I think it shows perception bias. UConn coming out of the woods to be the program they are took "them" by surprise. If UConn is that good, that league must be that bad is my guess for how "they" analyzed it. Kind of a WC Fields thing,
"I'd never belong to a club that would have me as a member." The club in this case agrees. Any club that has UConn as member must suck.
 
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