Big East bubble picture as of today | Page 3 | The Boneyard

Big East bubble picture as of today

nelsonmuntz said:
The Big East has had a terrible run over that stretch, only winning 40% of the national championships.
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Because of us and Nova, the Big East won championships. That only somewhat hides the fact that the overall quality of the the league, especially the bottom half, has gotten weaker. And yes, the P4 schools with football tv money and NIL money advantages, will not be our friend (unless we join them). The P4+ND is already trying to influence the way basketball tournament bids are awarded. It's the unfortunate evolution of big time college athletics.
 
superjohn said:
Yes and because of Duke and UNC the ACC has always been considered a great basketball conference. And because of every team in the Big 10 they haven't won anything in basketball in decades.
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But because of football, they are a P4 conference and the non-P4's will find it impossible to make up the $$ difference with revenue sharing.
 
uconnric said:
But because of football, they are a P4 conference and the non-P4's will find it impossible to make up the $$ difference with revenue sharing.
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Then become a fan of another school. You are over halfway there already.
 
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The big east and UConn have been great together … we have helped each other
 
Lunardi now has Creighton in the tourney as a 9 seed after their UConn win & he has Xavier on the bubble. So 4 BE teams seem solid and 5 seems possible, for the moment anyway. The UConn game this Saturday 1/25 @Xavier will be their Superbowl.
 
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Hi-Low said:
Lunardi now has Creighton in the tourney as a 9 seed after their UConn win & he has Xavier on the bubble. So 4 BE teams seem solid and 5 seems possible, for the moment anyway. The UConn game this Saturday 1/25 @Xavier will be their Superbowl.
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Expect Xavier to come out hair on fire Saturday.
 
Hi-Low said:
Lunardi now has Creighton in the tourney as a 9 seed after their UConn win & he has Xavier on the bubble. So 4 BE teams seem solid and 5 seems possible, for the moment anyway. The UConn game this Saturday 1/25 @Xavier will be their Superbowl.
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It probably becomes a zero-sum game around 4 bids. Xavier probably has to knock someone out to get themselves in, because UConn, St. Johns, Xavier and Creighton still have a lot of games against each other. To get 5 teams in, those 4 would have to run the table against Providence, Depaul, Seton Hall and Butler, and no more losses to Villanova are allowed either. And then they would still need to win more than the lose against the other bubble teams.

It is a hard path for all 4 of those teams plus Marquette to get bids.

I think it will the inverse about the SEC. Some of those teams with decent NETs are going to keep losing, and it is going to be hard to get in the dance with whatever a SEC bubble team's overall record will be after it goes 7-11 or 6-12 in conference play. Someone has to lose every conference game.
 
nelsonmuntz said:
It probably becomes a zero-sum game around 4 bids. Xavier probably has to knock someone out to get themselves in, because UConn, St. Johns, Xavier and Creighton still have a lot of games against each other. To get 5 teams in, those 4 would have to run the table against Providence, Depaul, Seton Hall and Butler, and no more losses to Villanova are allowed either. And then they would still need to win more than the lose against the other bubble teams.

It is a hard path for all 4 of those teams plus Marquette to get bids.

I think it will the inverse about the SEC. Some of those teams with decent NETs are going to keep losing, and it is going to be hard to get in the dance with whatever a SEC bubble team's overall record will be after it goes 7-11 or 6-12 in conference play. Someone has to lose every conference game.
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Arkansas has already played themselves out. Texas may be on it's way.
 
There's also the bid stealers (upsets in conference tourneys) so every year only a certain amount of at large teams..though I disagree with the entire premise:

If Gonzaga (not trying to pick on them, but as an example) is like 18-0 and heads into their conf tourney and gets upset by San Francisco who gets the auto-bid, the conference suddendly has 2 teams: San Fran and Gonzaga. So that is -1 to the at large pool b/c all along Lunardi et al would have 1 team: Gonzaga assuming they win out.

So we get these from time to time, some years more than others. Thus the Big East will be 4-5 teams in the dance depending a more on the bid stealers than which teams in the Big East finish 1-5, because if the 5th best team wins the tourney they dance and #4 might drop out.
 
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Amazing what a road beat down can do for bubble hopes. Creighton spanked a bad DePaul team in Chicago and now has a 40 NET.
 
nelsonmuntz said:
Amazing what a road beat down can do for bubble hopes. Creighton spanked a bad DePaul team in Chicago and now has a 40 NET.
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Well they were 44 going into the game, so not exactly a massive change.
 
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7774 said:
Well they were 44 going into the game, so not exactly a massive change.
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The 4-game winning streak they're on (3 games on the road including UConn) they've gone from 57 to 40th.
 
I thought we'd get 5, now I think 3. Some other teams need to make a deep run in the Big East Tournament to get in. There's going to be a lot of 10-12 loss teams this year.
 
UCTitleTown said:
I thought we'd get 5, now I think 3. Some other teams need to make a deep run in the Big East Tournament to get in. There's going to be a lot of 10-12 loss teams this year.
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So who doesn't make it? Creighton or us right now.
 
auror said:
The 4-game winning streak they're on (3 games on the road including UConn) they've gone from 57 to 40th.
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Sure, that makes sense. Of course he’s trying to frame it like they weren’t on the bubble, then beat DePaul by 25, and now they are on the bubble.
 
UCTitleTown said:
I thought we'd get 5, now I think 3. Some other teams need to make a deep run in the Big East Tournament to get in. There's going to be a lot of 10-12 loss teams this year.
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We could be a 9 loss team. I mean I hope not but it’s not that far fetched.
 
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Should be in: Marquette
Looking good: UConn, St. John's
On the right side of the fence: Creighton
On the wrong side of the fence: Villanova, Xavier
In deep trouble: Georgetown
Done: Providence, Seton Hall, DePaul, Butler
 
Looks like things are solidifying more and more towards 4 teams in. Although 5 is still in play if Nova or X step it up. 6 is still a dream that is not impossible, but most likely scenario for that is a team like Georgetown, Butler, or X that has a lot of talent getting hot at just the right time to win the BET ala Georgetown a couple years ago.

trank tourney projection 1-23.JPG
 
jibsey said:
We could be a 9 loss team. I mean I hope not but it’s not that far fetched.
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9 means we only lose 4 more games. We still have 2 against Marquette, 2 against St John’s, @ Creighton, @ X, BET. If we split the Marquette and St John’s games, lose a game in the BET, and lose at Creighton then we would need to win every other game in order to have only 9 losses.
 
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