Big East bubble picture as of today

[shizzle787]

There has been a fear that the Big East will only get three bids again this year, but after looking at the data, four is far more likely.

Should be in: Marquette, UConn, St. John's

Marquette and UConn: something catastrophic would have to happen for either to miss
St. John's: are an 8 seed at Bracket Matrix and sit at 15-3. Decent chance they will win their next four. Unlikely they will miss.

On the cusp: Creighton, Villanova

Creighton: Bracket Matrix has them as last four in. I did the Torvik Teamcast and they would get in at 19-13 with a loss in the BE quarterfinals. That was a worst case scenario. They will probably have 20-21 wins by Selection Sunday.

Villanova: Bracket Matrix has them in 1 bracket. Using Torvik Teamcast, I have a pretty good idea of how most of their games will go but three stand out: St. John's (H), Providence (A), and Georgetown (A). If they can go 2-1 or better in those three while winning the games they are supposed to and losing the others, they should sneak in.

In trouble: Georgetown, Xavier

Georgetown: I know nelson keeps postulation that 20 wins gets Georgetown in, but it doesn't. They didn't play a difficult enough schedule. 22 is probably the number.

Xavier: the next few weeks will likely torpedo their season

Done: Providence, Seton Hall, Butler, DePaul

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I don't keep saying anything about Georgetown. I barely mention them at all other than I don't like Cooley's ref-dependent style of play. The way the wins are breaking out, Creighton is the only Big East team that has a decent shot at a 4th bid. Xavier could go on a tear and get a bid if the committee is feeling very generous in its treatment of the Freemantle injury. Villanova needed to come out of the gate stronger than it has given its non-conference problems.

The field is going to be very different this year. Someone has to lose every conference game, so some of the NETs for the bottom half of power leagues are going to get worse as those teams pick up losses. If you project out, here is how the conference look for solid bids:

• MWC is probably a 2 bid league, compared to 6 last year.
• There is no Pac 12 (4 bids last year).
• Big 12 will probably get 8 bids again, but that is with 4 more teams.
• ACC got 5 bids last year, and looks like a 4 or 5 bid league despite having more teams.
• Big 10 will pick up a bid, maybe 2, although things would have to break just right for the league for that to happen.
• SEC got 8 bids last year, and it will get 10ish this year.
• Mid-majors: There were 3 at-large bids last year from the other conferences, and there will probably be 2 this year unless someone wins out from here and then gets upset in their conference tournament. Gonzaga/St. Marys will both get bids, but other than Memphis, there are not currently any other at-large candidates among the mid-majors.

That means there are about 5, maybe 6, extra bids this year that were not available last year. There will be some sketchy resumes with the last few at-large bids. I feel Creighton is in if it gets to 20 total wins (including the conference tournament) and Xavier probably needs to get to 21. It is unlikely they both get there.

 

[PNolanFan]

What I don’t understand is looking at the resume of UNC and wondering why they are seen as a solid tournament team when Creighton is on the bubble… I really don’t understand why any acc team outside of Duke would feel good about a bid as of today

 

[shizzle787]

What I don’t understand is looking at the resume of UNC and wondering why they are seen as a solid tournament team when Creighton is on the bubble… I really don’t understand why any acc team outside of Duke would feel good about a bid as of today

Because the ACC only has one good team (Duke), about 3 other teams will finish around 23 wins and get in by default by beating the rest of the tomato cans.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

What I don’t understand is looking at the resume of UNC and wondering why they are seen as a solid tournament team when Creighton is on the bubble… I really don’t understand why any acc team outside of Duke would feel good about a bid as of today

I don't understand why Pitt still has a NET ranking of 29 after losing 3 in a row. I think the NET was deliberately turned into a black box so the committee could use it to justify all kinds of dodgy selections.

 

[Ha Who]

The cartel will limit it to 3

 

[auror]

What I don’t understand is looking at the resume of UNC and wondering why they are seen as a solid tournament team when Creighton is on the bubble… I really don’t understand why any acc team outside of Duke would feel good about a bid as of today

Their losses are all ridiculously good, so basically aren't penalized at all for them. 5 losses to top 15 teams, 4 of which were on neutral or away. The other loss is to a top 30 team on the road.

They've got 5 wins away from home, which subtly boosts their wins from lacking to respectable. They would not be a high seed, but they'd be in today.

Creighton has a home loss by double digits to a worse team than any of NC's 5 losses. The SDSU loss was a beatdown (but without Ashworth). Only 2 wins away from home. They're not so far behind UNC, but solidly behind them in the pecking order.

 

[auror]

I don't understand why Pitt still has a NET ranking of 29 after losing 3 in a row. I think the NET was deliberately turned into a black box so the committee could use it to justify all kinds of dodgy selections.

There isn't anybody good in that range. I suspect there was a pretty big space between the top 25 and so they fell in rating but not much in ranking. Also, all 5 of their losses are Q1, which helps, though the margin of the Duke, FSU, and Miss St losses aren't good.

 

[shizzle787]

There are 37 at large bids up for grabs.

Let's assume (worst case) the following number of at-large bids by P4 leagues:
SEC: 11
Big 10: 10
Big 12: 8
ACC: 4

That leaves four at large bids:
Big East: 3
WCC: 1

Other potential problems: Utah State, Memphis, Drake/Bradley, streaky A10 school.

Really don't think there will be an at-large outside of the top 10 leagues this year.

 

[pepband99]

There isn't anybody good in that range. I suspect there was a pretty big space between the top 25 and so they fell in rating but not much in ranking. Also, all 5 of their losses are Q1, which helps, though the margin of the Duke, FSU, and Miss St losses aren't good.

NET is computed - not sure what you mean.

Pitt's profile is indeed weird. Their Kenpom numbers actually rose with the Miss St blowout ???

 

[Tyler2Rings]

Really don't think there will be an at-large outside of the top 10 leagues this year.

Keep an eye on UCSD and UC Irvine

 

[shizzle787]

Keep an eye on UCSD and UC Irvine

The Big West has 5 top-150 teams. They will cannabalize each other.

 

[gsmooth]

There isn't anybody good in that range. I suspect there was a pretty big space between the top 25 and so they fell in rating but not much in ranking. Also, all 5 of their losses are Q1, which helps, though the margin of the Duke, FSU, and Miss St losses aren't good.

Pitt also defeated Ohio State, West Virginia by 24, and also defeated LSU by 11 who is of course from the SEC which is believed to have the single best season of any conference in basketball for the last 20 plus years.

@ nelsonmuntz - I don't know if that should justify Pitt having a NET of 29 when you include auror's list of bad losses Pitt has had, because as you said the ranking criteria of the NET seems so esoteric.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

There are 37 at large bids up for grabs.

Let's assume (worst case) the following number of at-large bids by P4 leagues:
SEC: 11
Big 10: 10
Big 12: 8
ACC: 4

That leaves four at large bids:
Big East: 3
WCC: 1

Other potential problems: Utah State, Memphis, Drake/Bradley, streaky A10 school.

Really don't think there will be an at-large outside of the top 10 leagues this year.

How you get to 12 locks for the SEC and 11 for the Big 10? I don’t see the SEC getting more than 11 bids, and 10 is more likely unless a lot of games break in the right direction for the SEC. The Big Ten has a reasonable shot at 10 bids, but 9 is just as likely.

Now the committee may reach deep for the last few bids, but putting Vanderbilt before St. John’s or UConn’s bid is a little silly.

 

[HooperScooper]

Nothing too interesting but figured I'd post this article from the Register today. I hate these week long breaks without games. Nothing to read.

The Big East is a bit down this season. It's ranked fourth in conference NET at 71.36, well behind the SEC (30.06), Big Ten (47.06) and Big 12 (50.25). As of Wednesday, the league only has three likely at-large NCAA tournament team: UConn, Marquette (NET 14) and St. John's (32). Creighton (51), Villanova (54), Xavier (57) and even Georgetown (69) are within range.

The fact that the league is a bit down means UConn could certainly rack up a bunch of wins over the next couple of months. But, also as a result of the league's struggles, how much can that boost the team's NET and KenPom numbers?

https://www.nhregister.com/sports/uconn-mens-basketball/article/dan-hurley-ncaa-tournament-uconn-huskies-20036088.php

Alternate access:

Can UConn men's basketball team still forge a favorable path to a third straight national title?​

 

[shizzle787]

How you get to 12 locks for the SEC and 11 for the Big 10? I don’t see the SEC getting more than 11 bids, and 10 is more likely unless a lot of games break in the right direction for the SEC. The Big Ten has a reasonable shot at 10 bids, but 9 is just as likely.

Now the committee may reach deep for the last few bids, but putting Vanderbilt before St. John’s or UConn’s bid is a little silly.

UConn and St. John's aren't getting the boot. However, I definitely could see the committee adding an 11th or 12th SEC in place of a 2nd MW team.

 

[freescooter]

NET is computed - not sure what you mean.

Pitt's profile is indeed weird. Their Kenpom numbers actually rose with the Miss St blowout ???

All these systems are just nonsense. They serve the purpose of making things “”seem” technically justified. Teams resumes improve with losses? Please! And bad teams get more highly ranked because they play “good competition” which then actually helps boost mediocre teams’ resumes. The system is a mess

 

[nelsonmuntz]

UConn and St. John's aren't getting the boot. However, I definitely could see the committee adding an 11th or 12th SEC in place of a 2nd MW team.

Make the case for a Vanderbilt that will be 18-13, 6-12, and have a NET of 55-60, over a Creighton team with 20+ wins and a NET that should be around 40 plus a win over Kansas.

 

[shizzle787]

Make the case for a Vanderbilt that will be 18-13, 6-12, and have a NET of 55-60, over a Creighton team with 20+ wins and a NET that should be around 40 plus a win over Kansas.

Didn't say Creighton either. 2nd MW team.

 

[MU in MKE]

I think Creighton with 19 would really be cutting it close. 20 for sure, as long as they win all their Q3+Q4 games. If they win the games they're supposed to win though, they'll be fine and that'll be 4 teams in.

Villanova still in good position despite their NC season. As long as -duh- they win the games they should win. Nova hurt themselves with the loss to Xavier the other night. Frustrating because they had a sizeable lead for a good chunk of the game. Those are the games they need to make it (and for the conf to see more than 4 teams).

Georgetown I was kind of thinking that if they win the rest of their games against the non-tournament teams in conference that are not named Xavier and then 2 games against tourney teams, that would be enough (it would be 21 total wins at that point). They'd be just about a bubbly as you can get though, so depending on what happens outside our conference, they may or may not make it with that.


So it's really on Nova and Georgetown to get us to the 5 (or even 6??) teams in point.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I think Creighton with 19 would really be cutting it close. 20 for sure, as long as they win all their Q3+Q4 games. If they win the games they're supposed to win though, they'll be fine and that'll be 4 teams in.

Villanova still in good position despite their NC season. As long as -duh- they win the games they should win. Nova hurt themselves with the loss to Xavier the other night. Frustrating because they had a sizeable lead for a good chunk of the game. Those are the games they need to make it (and for the conf to see more than 4 teams).

Georgetown I was kind of thinking that if they win the rest of their games against the non-tournament teams in conference that are not named Xavier and then 2 games against tourney teams, that would be enough (it would be 21 total wins at that point). They'd be just about a bubbly as you can get though, so depending on what happens outside our conference, they may or may not make it with that.


So it's really on Nova and Georgetown to get us to the 5 (or even 6??) teams in point.

I think Creighton at #4 is a reasonable probability, and some things would have to break Xavier's way for them to get the 5th bid. Villanova and Georgetown have to really go on a tear to even get back in the discussion.