Big 12

[nelsonmuntz]

This is in response to your post above and the follow-up re kids staying local. For perspective, I live outside Connecticut and I have a kid that is starting to look at schools, so the parents talk a bit about what they're looking at, and we've been paying attention to where kids apply/enroll. I was kind-of shocked to see a lot of kids looking at the mediocre SEC schools. These aren't honor students. If I had to make a comparison, they were the kids that would have gone to bad private school or maybe a URI type in the past (no insult meant to those schools). Those kids are not going to Alabama, LSU, even Ole Miss (?!) because of any academic quality. I don't think they care one iota about the academic prestige. They talk about football games, fraternity/sororities and the weather. The only person that ever touched on academics just focused on the Alabama alum network and the huge flow of money the government (according to them it's state and fed) into the campuses.

My family has our demographic reasons for not even briefly looking at those southern schools, but I think you might be myopically focused on academics. There appears to be a separation between academic prestige and popularity of a school. I think if that cliff is coming, the SEC might be well positioned to survive. Interestingly, UConn gets a lot of applications from my town. More than the SEC schools, but only 0-2 enroll each year. Penn State and Maryland have a much higher enrollment to acceptance rate. I don't know if that is because of the Big Ten vs. Big East/Independent, or whatever other reason.

The kids you are talking about are probably targeting schools that are basically open admissions. These schools have to buy students. For example, URI, which has a reputation for being generous to good students, is already buying students, which kind of supports my argument. It is unlikely that a kid is going to go to Kentucky or Tennessee over UConn for anywhere close to the same price. A 3.8 gpa kid with 1400 SATs is not going to make a life decision because the school has an extra few weeks of warm weather a year. The kids that make that kind of decision probably don't have 3.8 gpas and 1400 SATs.

My point is that the entire university system in the United States is way overcapacity for the number of American kids that are going to be attending college by the end of the decade. There are only four ways to for a school to address the shrinking market:

1) Go hard after international students. The U of California system already does this successfully. I could see UConn doing this. It is unlikely that the SEC schools will go this route.

2) Raise the caliber of the university. How many SEC schools are going to be investing in professor salaries when the market is shrinking? SEC schools seem to be going the other way, taking away tenure and leaning more heavily on adjuncts. They were able to do this because the better schools were hyper competitive and at capacity. That is about to change.

3) Cut price. I see this happening regardless, but this is expensive for the universities, will result in schools needing more help from the state and alumni. Ironically, if the quality of students goes down, alumni donations will go down because the school is less likely to produce successful alumni that can donate back to the school.

4) Lower standards. I think this will happen regardless, but it is going to be flowing downhill. The Top 20's will take more students from UConn, and schools like UConn will take the better students that would have gone to the schools ranked 70-100. It will be Lord of the Flies for schools outside the Top 100. A lot of them will simply fail.

 

[Slasher]

I don't know if that's true. When I was in college (admittedly very long ago) I got into way better schools than the one I actually attended. Every kid has a different priority when it comes to colleges. Some want a college atmosphere (a true college town) some want a more urban environment like Miami, Pitt, Louisville, Memphis, Cincinnati, UCLA, etc. Others chose the best academic school they can get into. Many many many kids pick schools based on sports. Look at college admissions growth over the past five years. What do the ones that are growing have in common? Big time sports.

 

[History Geek]

I have also seen kids go to schools in NC, SC, FL and not necessarily the big name schools. They mostly wanted to go to school further south where the weather is nicer. Granted, many kids aren't getting into UConn these days so that might factor into it too and perhaps this is not a trend. But for many undergrads I think the south has more of a lure today than it did in the past. With communications technology and ease of travel, distance isn't much of a factor.

I teach high school seniors and can testify this is generally true.

 

[huskymedic]

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I don't know if that's true. When I was in college (admittedly very long ago) I got into way better schools than the one I actually attended. Every kid has a different priority when it comes to colleges. Some want a college atmosphere (a true college town) some want a more urban environment like Miami, Pitt, Louisville, Memphis, Cincinnati, UCLA, etc. Others chose the best academic school they can get into. Many many many kids pick schools based on sports. Look at college admissions growth over the past five years. What do the ones that are growing have in common? Big time sports.

Ivies, U of Chicago, Carnegie Mellon, Rice, Washington University, and Amherst have big time sports? Because those schools have had a nice run the last few years.

And that collection of schools you mentioned have nothing to do with each other outside of sports. The Presidents of UCLA, Miami and Pitt would slash their wrists if they were ever included in an academic category with Louisville or Memphis. Any kid that chooses Memphis over Pitt or UCLA because they like Memphis better is a freaking idiot, and in all likelihood does not exist in the real world.

There will be two classes of universities that matter in the future: The prestige, Top 25 universities, like the ones I mentioned above, along with a handful of small prestige privates. And the large, respected, national research universities, of which UConn is currently one, and most of the SEC is not. The second class of school has developed strengths in STEM and professional degrees like business and pre-law, and will be very hard for schools outside of that group to break in as the number of students shrinks. It is more likely that those within that second group slip into a third category, than it is that any school currently outside the Top 70 or so breaks into that group.

There is almost no industry where status is as sticky as universities. The national rankings have changed very little in the last 30+ years. The schools with weaker rankings were able to compete because there was a growing population of college students, but that is over, and actually has been for several years already. The percentage of students going to college has been declining for years, driving down total student numbers, and the addressable market is going to start shrinking soon too.

 

[Urcea]

Just thinking nonsense here - let's say it does end up being UConn and Gonzaga with any other combination of pairs of schools (Colorado, Arizona/Colorado, UNLV, whomever) - does the Big 12 add a football only to pair with Gonzaga? Is there any value even out there to make that work? Army?

 

[LoyalFanCT]

Just thinking nonsense here - let's say it does end up being UConn and Gonzaga with any other combination of pairs of schools (Colorado, Arizona/Colorado, UNLV, whomever) - does the Big 12 add a football only to pair with Gonzaga? Is there any value even out there to make that work? Army?

Navy may be an option. Close to Washington DC metro

 

[BigTenFan]

I have also seen kids go to schools in NC, SC, FL and not necessarily the big name schools. They mostly wanted to go to school further south where the weather is nicer. Granted, many kids aren't getting into UConn these days so that might factor into it too and perhaps this is not a trend. But for many undergrads I think the south has more of a lure today than it did in the past. With communications technology and ease of travel, distance isn't much of a factor.

UConn has done a terrific job of positioning itself as a top 25 Public University. 2 things they can't afford to do:
Rest on their previous academic success
Continue to raise tuition and fees year after year.

The University is on the precipice of pricing itself out of the market for in state students.
I have 2 kids going to out of state Public University that is essentially the same price as UConn. I hope our state legislature and UConn administration addresses the need to control tuition.

 

[Slasher]

Ivies, U of Chicago, Carnegie Mellon, Rice, Washington University, and Amherst have big time sports? Because those schools have had a nice run the last few years.

And that collection of schools you mentioned have nothing to do with each other outside of sports. The Presidents of UCLA, Miami and Pitt would slash their wrists if they were ever included in an academic category with Louisville or Memphis. Any kid that chooses Memphis over Pitt or UCLA because they like Memphis better is a freaking idiot, and in all likelihood does not exist in the real world.

There will be two classes of universities that matter in the future: The prestige, Top 25 universities, like the ones I mentioned above, along with a handful of small prestige privates. And the large, respected, national research universities, of which UConn is currently one, and most of the SEC is not. The second class of school has developed strengths in STEM and professional degrees like business and pre-law, and will be very hard for schools outside of that group to break in as the number of students shrinks. It is more likely that those within that second group slip into a third category, than it is that any school currently outside the Top 70 or so breaks into that group.

There is almost no industry where status is as sticky as universities. The national rankings have changed very little in the last 30+ years. The schools with weaker rankings were able to compete because there was a growing population of college students, but that is over, and actually has been for several years already. The percentage of students going to college has been declining for years, driving down total student numbers, and the addressable market is going to start shrinking soon too.

The ivies will always get the best students no one is debating that. I'm talking about all schools that are step below the ivies. And I'm not talking the ivy adjacents like Carnegie, Chicago etc.

 

[UConnJim]

I have also seen kids go to schools in NC, SC, FL and not necessarily the big name schools. They mostly wanted to go to school further south where the weather is nicer. Granted, many kids aren't getting into UConn these days so that might factor into it too and perhaps this is not a trend. But for many undergrads I think the south has more of a lure today than it did in the past. With communications technology and ease of travel, distance isn't much of a factor.

Based on the high school in my town outside of Boston, I would agree with you. Kids are choosing schools in the South and some of the more popular ones are Elon, High Point, Coastal Carolina, Clemson, UTampa, UMiami, as well as some of the large SEC schools. It seems like the sweet spots are North Carolina, South Carolina, and Florida. With air travel today, it is easier to fly to Boston from NC, SC, and Florida than it is to drive to a school in upstate NY like Syracuse, URochester, Ithaca, Hobart, St. Lawrence,...

And, it is hard to get into many Florida schools relative to UConn. These Florida schools have lower acceptance rates than UConn: Florida, FSU, Miami, UCF, USF, University of Tampa, Florida A&M, West Florida.

Florida St. out of state is comparable in cost to UConn in-state and the acceptance rate is lower at FSU at 37%. One kid I know got rejected at FSU and is now going to UMass Amherst.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Based on the high school in my town outside of Boston, I would agree with you. Kids are choosing schools in the South and some of the more popular ones are Elon, High Point, Coastal Carolina, Clemson, UTampa, UMiami, as well as some of the large SEC schools. It seems like the sweet spots are North Carolina, South Carolina, and Florida. With air travel today, it is easier to fly to Boston from NC, SC, and Florida than it is to drive to a school in upstate NY like Syracuse, URochester, Ithaca, Hobart, St. Lawrence,...

And, it is hard to get into many Florida schools relative to UConn. These Florida schools have lower acceptance rates than UConn: Florida, FSU, Miami, UCF, USF, University of Tampa, Florida A&M, West Florida.

Florida St. out of state is comparable in cost to UConn in-state and the acceptance rate is lower at FSU at 37%. One kid I know got rejected at FSU and is now going to UMass Amherst.

You are making a case that UConn is finished athletically and academically. You are actually saying that ALL those Florida schools are better than UConn academically. What are you doing here then?

 

[RSTuthill]

And, it is hard to get into many Florida schools relative to UConn. These Florida schools have lower acceptance rates than UConn: Florida, FSU, Miami, UCF, USF, University of Tampa, Florida A&M, West Florida.

Florida St. out of state is comparable in cost to UConn in-state and the acceptance rate is lower at FSU at 37%. One kid I know got rejected at FSU and is now going to UMass Amherst.

Give it 30 years and that will turn around when FL becomes uninhabitable. We are gonna miss that Net Zero goal by quite a lot.

 

[UConnJim]

You are making a case that UConn is finished athletically and academically. You are actually saying that ALL those Florida schools are better than UConn academically. What are you doing here then?

I never said that. My point was some kids are attracted to southern schools and they are going to some.

 

[Kolumbo]

You are making a case that UConn is finished athletically and academically. You are actually saying that ALL those Florida schools are better than UConn academically. What are you doing here then?

His point was that the Florida schools are more popular, not better, and thusly have lower acceptance rates. I don't know how that supports UConn being finished athletically or academically. You are trying to Muntz his words.

 

[Kolumbo]

Just thinking nonsense here - let's say it does end up being UConn and Gonzaga with any other combination of pairs of schools (Colorado, Arizona/Colorado, UNLV, whomever) - does the Big 12 add a football only to pair with Gonzaga? Is there any value even out there to make that work? Army?

 

[jostar1]

Podcast with Ross Dellenger, Dan Wetzel, and Pat Forde.
Realignment discussion (including UConn) starts at 39:25.

SEC scheduling proposals, what does Nick Saban want & which state is the laziest?

Dan Wetzel and SI’s Pat Forde & Ross Dellenger break down all the latest developments happening right now at this year’s SEC meetings.

sports.yahoo.com

 

[jostar1]

Big 12 AD's Believe New Contract Revenue Will Raise to $50 Million Per School | Dennis Dodd

Dennis Dodd, CBS Sports joins 365 Sports to discuss his thoughts on the Pac 12 TV agreement, their struggle for a linear partner, his thoughts on the possibility of expansion in the Big 12, will the SEC go to 9 conference games, and more.

 

[Waquoit]

What is hilarious about that mindset is thinking about the opposition to a highway to Providence. They fought that one for years and their payback was two of the larger casinos in the world.

The word "payback" has negative connotations. I'm not sure having two huge employment centers in your area is a negative, except for the NIMBY's who've already got theirs. And what really killed the highway to Providence was Rhody. They didn't want it, said it would be too close to the reservoir.

 

[jostar1]

This was posted on the WVU board:

Colorado, Arizona, UConn Football (Last 20 Years)

Colorado: 89-152 (.369), 5 Bowls, 0 BCS/CFP Bowls, .288 win percentage against current P5
UConn: 96-137 (.412), 7 Bowls, 1 BCS/CFP Bowl, .336 win percentage against current P5
Arizona: 104-136 (.433), 8 Bowls, 1 BCS/CFP Bowl, .350 win percentage against current P5

 

[HuskyHawk]

Based on the high school in my town outside of Boston, I would agree with you. Kids are choosing schools in the South and some of the more popular ones are Elon, High Point, Coastal Carolina, Clemson, UTampa, UMiami, as well as some of the large SEC schools. It seems like the sweet spots are North Carolina, South Carolina, and Florida. With air travel today, it is easier to fly to Boston from NC, SC, and Florida than it is to drive to a school in upstate NY like Syracuse, URochester, Ithaca, Hobart, St. Lawrence,...

And, it is hard to get into many Florida schools relative to UConn. These Florida schools have lower acceptance rates than UConn: Florida, FSU, Miami, UCF, USF, University of Tampa, Florida A&M, West Florida.

Florida St. out of state is comparable in cost to UConn in-state and the acceptance rate is lower at FSU at 37%. One kid I know got rejected at FSU and is now going to UMass Amherst.

It's absolutely happening. Cost is a factor for sure, and yes those southern public schools are cheaper or provide merit aid. Weather is a factor. Some kids I know wanted the whole fraternity/sorority thing. Sometimes it's the big schools, but like you said, small ones are also popular with northern kids. College of Charleston is another.

But here's another factor, these kids mostly know they can't afford to live in Boston, CT, NYC after college anyway. A friend of mine from NoCal just drove his recent college grad daughter to Raleigh, NC to start her post college life. The general exodus from super high cost northeastern and west coast cities applies to people in their 20s too. It's not going to change any time soon, although Miami has now joined the list of super high cost cities.

Don't worry about Nelson. His views on anything south of PA or between it and CA were closer to accurate 120 years ago. They bear no resemblance to current reality.

 

[Ha Who]

It's absolutely happening. Cost is a factor for sure, and yes those southern public schools are cheaper or provide merit aid. Weather is a factor. Some kids I know wanted the whole fraternity/sorority thing. Sometimes it's the big schools, but like you said, small ones are also popular with northern kids. College of Charleston is another.

But here's another factor, these kids mostly know they can't afford to live in Boston, CT, NYC after college anyway. A friend of mine from NoCal just drove his recent college grad daughter to Raleigh, NC to start her post college life. The general exodus from super high cost northeastern and west coast cities applies to people in their 20s too. It's not going to change any time soon, although Miami has now joined the list of super high cost cities.

Don't worry about Nelson. His views on anything south of PA or between it and CA were closer to accurate 120 years ago. They bear no resemblance to current reality.

A friend of mine, downsized as he approaches retirement, and his triplets were grown. He bought a house in 2020 in Delray Beach for about 660,000 it’s value now it’s about 1.1 million.

 

[CashewCrew]

This was posted on the WVU board:

Colorado, Arizona, UConn Football (Last 20 Years)

Colorado: 89-152 (.369), 5 Bowls, 0 BCS/CFP Bowls, .288 win percentage against current P5
UConn: 96-137 (.412), 7 Bowls, 1 BCS/CFP Bowl, .336 win percentage against current P5
Arizona: 104-136 (.433), 8 Bowls, 1 BCS/CFP Bowl, .350 win percentage against current P5

Just read 7 pages of that thread and holy.... I highly recommend it. Half of them are talking about UConn like we're a high school with no fan base. Someone needs to remind those people the population of WV - it's half that of CT, which is already a small state.

 

[Exit 4]

This was posted on the WVU board:

Colorado, Arizona, UConn Football (Last 20 Years)

Colorado: 89-152 (.369), 5 Bowls, 0 BCS/CFP Bowls, .288 win percentage against current P5
UConn: 96-137 (.412), 7 Bowls, 1 BCS/CFP Bowl, .336 win percentage against current P5
Arizona: 104-136 (.433), 8 Bowls, 1 BCS/CFP Bowl, .350 win percentage against current P5

-Deion and a high growth state and a state people love to visit.
-A powerhouse in all sports. Giant flag in the northeast. Biggest and strongest state U north and east of Penn St and Maryland.
-Who doesn't love sunshine? AZ is another high growth location, play the long game!

 

[jostar1]

Just read 7 pages of that thread and holy.... I highly recommend it. Half of them are talking about UConn like we're a high school with no fan base. Someone needs to remind those people the population of WV - it's half that of CT, which is already a small state.

I'm not registered with 247 or I might have responded.
I think someone said none of our teams (other than basketball) bring anything. What about baseball?

 

[Samoo]

This was posted on the WVU board:

Colorado, Arizona, UConn Football (Last 20 Years)

Colorado: 89-152 (.369), 5 Bowls, 0 BCS/CFP Bowls, .288 win percentage against current P5
UConn: 96-137 (.412), 7 Bowls, 1 BCS/CFP Bowl, .336 win percentage against current P5
Arizona: 104-136 (.433), 8 Bowls, 1 BCS/CFP Bowl, .350 win percentage against current P5

That's crazy, and includes a three (four) year period where we went a combined 4-31.