The SEC schools get 50 million a year. At 30 schools that would be 1.5 billion per year. I don't see any network thinking thats cost effective. So I dont have any answers from a business sense, I just think there is a tipping point. Disney is looking to dump properties as we type here. ESPN had had massive layoffs. There is no way ESPN is going to be offering billions a year for media rights going forward.
I tend to agree with you. At some point simply adding teams that have no history with one another (like rivalries) will not be valued by media partners - diminishing returns. For example, who thinks a Rutgers-Washington football game is compelling except those teams' fans and alumni? Rivalry games have national interest, think Army-Navy, Civil War (OR-OSU), Red River Showdown, etc., as do prominent national matchups in football and basketball.
I read an article (can't remember where) that discussed that what the Big Ten is doing might actually lure Notre Dame which is the gold ring of universities to add. That's because ND has valued its independence so that it could schedule the likes of USC, Stanford, several traditional midwest rivals like Purdue, Michigan and Michigan St., and also Navy. But if Stanford gets an invitation to the Big Ten then essentially everything ND wants for football is right there. As noted by another BYer, ND hockey already plays in the Big Ten, and moving their other Olympic sports from the ACC would be a no-brainer.
Here are some "headlines" from my research today about how UConn compares to other schools if we were invited to the Big 12:
1. From Day 1 we'd have the most successful men's and women's basketball programs (thus Brett Yomark's interest) - men have one more than Kansas;
2. UConn would be tied for 3rd most varsity teams with Utah and BYU, and only behind Arizona State and TCU. TCU's 20 teams include equestrian, rifle and triathlon, while ASU's 24 teams includes triathlon;
3. Only four Big 12 universities have more than UConn's 23 national championships (ASU, Utah, Colorado and Oklahoma St.);
4. UConn has the most national championships since 2000: 17 (Baylor is next with 14);
5. UConn has the most national championships since 1990: 19 (Colorado is next with 17);
6. While we have regional sports teams like ice hockey, field hockey and women's lacrosse, they've accounted for just five NC's (all FH). For Colorado (19 ski titles/total 28 titles) and Utah 14 ski titles/total 25 titles they are dominant in a sport that is also very regional.
The facts seem to show that UConn is one of the hottest and relevant athletics programs of the past 23 and 33 years, football notwithstanding, and in particular we're doing that in the 2nd largest revenue sport. We'd make any conference BETTER!