Texas now gets about $40 mn per year from B12 + Longhorn network. That's not going up. B1G and SEC will soon both be matching or exceeding that. Texas won't like having Texas A&M in their own state out-earning them. They will consider their options. Equality at the top level of college athletics might be more attractive to them than being top dog in a second-tier conference, especially if that is unstable -- and it is, having lost Colorado, Texas, Missouri, and A&M already, and Kansas and Oklahoma next to leave.
Options they would explore: B1G, SEC, a B12-like deal with the Pac where they keep the LHN, or a Notre Dame like deal with the ACC.