Betting lines

[whaler11]

Not in CT. The casinos in CT have horses, dogs, etc. but no sports. We're better off as the major sports institution in the state, that way. If you ask me.

If you've got time and have the gumption to be able to get through a really dry, and long book, read: "Interference : Gambling and football - by Dan Moldea.

I think it was published in the late 1980s. Professional football rose up because all the crooks that made money on bootlegging booze during prohibition, needed a different method of making money, when alcohol prohibition was reversed. Gambling on college games dates back to the 1800s, and was going strong, and was what led all those original NFL owners to the business, when they couldn't move money as discreetly through horse tracks.

Wouldn't it be better to put that money to legitimate businesses and have the state take their cut rather than allowing criminal elements to take it? Are Ontario or Delaware worse off because they have gov't sponsored sports gambling?

 

[Carl Spackler]

Wouldn't it be better to put that money to legitimate businesses and have the state take their cut rather than allowing criminal elements to take it? Are Ontario or Delaware worse off because they have gov't sponsored sports gambling?

It would be better for CT to stop being a welfare state, if you want to get to the heart of the matter when it comes to state politics and economics.

 

[whaler11]

It would be better for CT to stop being a welfare state, if you want to get to the heart of the matter when it comes to state politics and economics.

That would be tremendous, but a bit out of scope.

 

[mattp]

Vegas and offshore books are not only attempting to balance wagers. It's not even really up for debate, unless you think they are all lying - and somehow working together to keep the secret.

There are websites that will show you bet volume on games. If books could only be profitable by balancing bets - well it's obvious they are doing a terrible job as they almost never accomplish it in a single game nevermind across a day or weekend.

If you think every local bookie is pushing their action all the way to vegas you are nuts. There are some who take enough action that they lay some off at times on games - but the idea that every local guy is connected to some huge ring is laughable.

i'm not looking to argue about this, but could you tell me about the websites that show bet volume on games? if the smart Vegas money really is taking sides, i'd like to be able to see which side their taking

 

[mattp]

All this talk of sports betting makes me wonder if there's even a day to do it legally. Not in CT, right? Only in Vegas?

i think there's actually 3-4 states where it's legal now, and according to Chris Christie you can do it in NJ now, but the federal gov't disagrees. the people that run the Monmouth Racetrack have said they'd have sports betting up and running by the start of the NFL season. I'm not sure if they did yet, but Christie pretty much said he dared the federal government to come in and try to shut them down. it could get really interesting

 

[whaler11]

i'm not looking to argue about this, but could you tell me about the websites that show bet volume on games? if the smart Vegas money really is taking sides, i'd like to be able to see which side their taking

I believe sportsinsights.com gives a free trial. Note the data isn't perfect because it gives ticket counts and not dollars wagered. It is certainly something a lot of people use and there is probably a bunch of data on there about what the records when it's 80% or higher on one side.

I talked someone out of the Giants over last night with the data. Whole world was on the over but the line dropped... If they wanted half and half wouldn't it go up? Odd....

 

[mattp]

I talked someone out of the Giants over last night with the data. Whole world was on the over but the line dropped... If they wanted half and half wouldn't it go up? Odd....

i know a lot of people that liked the Giants and the over. it seems like whenever almost everyone i know that gambles agrees on something, they lose their shirts. personally i don't really get much of a rush from gambling so i only wager a few times a season when it just seems too easy, like us giving only 22 against UMass last weekend.

 

[BlueMAB]

i know a lot of people that liked the Giants and the over. it seems like whenever almost everyone i know that gambles agrees on something, they lose their shirts. personally i don't really get much of a rush from gambling so i only wager a few times a season when it just seems too easy, like us giving only 22 against UMass last weekend.

I couldn't get in on UConn at 22 last week due to extenuating circumstances, still upset about that. I loved it at 22. When was the last time we didn't cover 22 against an FCS team? (I know they are FBS on paper, but on the field they aren't yet)

 

[BlueMAB]

Under Edsall UConn was a cover machine especially as a dog and especially at home. I don't think there is any opinion on this staff - if anything they were bad ATS last year especially at home (2-4) off top of my head.

There's another reason I was an Edsall defender. He won me a lot of money.

Coach P was terrible ATS last year. I think that was a result of the coaching change. I expect much better this year.

 

[Carl Spackler]

I believe sportsinsights.com gives a free trial. Note the data isn't perfect because it gives ticket counts and not dollars wagered. It is certainly something a lot of people use and there is probably a bunch of data on there about what the records when it's 80% or higher on one side.

I talked someone out of the Giants over last night with the data. Whole world was on the over but the line dropped... If they wanted half and half wouldn't it go up? Odd....

There's no regulation on offshore online gambling,and there's no guarantee you'll get paid if you win, but they will track you down if you lose and don't pay up, and they most certainly are in control of the gambling lines, because if anyone of them simply calls vegas and dumps a huge amount of money on a game, the lines will change dramatically, and they do set the lines with the intent of making profit on the money coming in on the bet, not on their surcharge, as the legal books do.

Online gambling might be one of the most crooked rackets ever devised.

 

[Carl Spackler]

I believe sportsinsights.com gives a free trial. Note the data isn't perfect because it gives ticket counts and not dollars wagered. It is certainly something a lot of people use and there is probably a bunch of data on there about what the records when it's 80% or higher on one side.

I talked someone out of the Giants over last night with the data. Whole world was on the over but the line dropped... If they wanted half and half wouldn't it go up? Odd....

the online gambling world, is a dangerous thing. Be careful. The physical, emotional and psychological barrier that a computer creates, that isn 't there when you're dealing with people directly when placing bets, collecting and/or paying up cash - gives a false sense of security, and the people that run the online world, are a hell of a lot more dangerous than the vegas underworld.

Nuff said.

 

[Carl Spackler]

Our difference whaler - is that you are discussing the online gambling world, which is not run the same way as the real world casino sports book world, and what's interesting is that the online world is running the vegas sports books into the ground, and what that eventually means, especially if the sports books go south far enough that they won't take the giant bets that come in from offshore......is that the billions of dollars that exchange hands every year aroudn football, is very quickly, becoming entirely DE-regulated.

 

[HeGotGame]

The single biggest misconception on gambling is that the books are trying to balance the money equally on both sides.

Extra bonus for having the line movement completely wrong. It opened at 1, not 7 and went up. The 7 point line was a projection from a website early in the summer that predicted the line for every game. There was never a line on this game until Sunday when it opened at 1 and instantly went to 4.

The single biggest misconception on gambling is that the books are trying to balance the money equally on both sides.

Extra bonus for having the line movement completely wrong. It opened at 1, not 7 and went up. The 7 point line was a projection from a website early in the summer that predicted the line for every game. There was never a line on this game until Sunday when it opened at 1 and instantly went to 4.

You are absolutely correct. I do not know where people get this idea, but it is wrong. It is usually people who think they know about gambling but really have no clue.

 

[HeGotGame]

The single biggest misconception on gambling is that the books are trying to balance the money equally on both sides.

Extra bonus for having the line movement completely wrong. It opened at 1, not 7 and went up. The 7 point line was a projection from a website early in the summer that predicted the line for every game. There was never a line on this game until Sunday when it opened at 1 and instantly went to 4.

The single biggest misconception on gambling is that the books are trying to balance the money equally on both sides.

Extra bonus for having the line movement completely wrong. It opened at 1, not 7 and went up. The 7 point line was a projection from a website early in the summer that predicted the line for every game. There was never a line on this game until Sunday when it opened at 1 and instantly went to 4.

You are absolutely correct. I do not know where people get this idea, but it is wrong. It is usually people who think they know about gambling but really have no clue.

 

[whaler11]

There's no regulation on offshore online gambling,and there's no guarantee you'll get paid if you win, but they will track you down if you lose and don't pay up, and they most certainly are in control of the gambling lines, because if anyone of them simply calls vegas and dumps a huge amount of money on a game, the lines will change dramatically, and they do set the lines with the intent of making profit on the money coming in on the bet, not on their surcharge, as the legal books do.

Online gambling might be one of the most crooked rackets ever devised.

You are wrong. Legal books take positions. Anyone gambling offshore is gutsier than I, don't disagree with that.

Yesterday is an example of the line moving against the money -

 

[Carl Spackler]

Any player, player friend, or player family member, when hearing anyone speak about gambling should immediately turn and run in the opposite direction, screaming loudly.

I can't stress that enough.

 

[EdgewoodNHV]

For the record, FOX News had an interesting take on the terrible lines for UConn this year and how easy it will be for them to apparently cover the spread against NC State:

http://www.foxnews.com/sports/2012/09/06/vegas-missed-boat-on-connecticut/

 

[Carl Spackler]

You are absolutely correct. I do not know where people get this idea, but it is wrong. It is usually people who think they know about gambling but really have no clue.

100% correct. A gambler, by definition - is somebody that's taking a chance on an uncertain outcome. There are plenty of gamblers that are also "placing" bets at the same time that they're "taking" bets. I've already discussed this. Not looking at the online world (which I know is probably non-sense to the majority of people reading here)...but in the real people talking to people world with their own voices.......the vast majority of bookies are most definitely stacking bets - they're simply gambling with other people's money on top of their own.

This is exactly what has happened in the online world, gamblers realize, exactly what's been described, that if they can collect $100 from somebody at a 1-pt spread, and then bump that up to a 4pt spread at will - they can make a lot of money. That kind of thing, in the past - was a clear sign that somebody was fixing a game. Now - it's simply a sign that gamblers are fixing the lines now - it's easier than convincing a player to shave points in a game.

At the very top, you don't put gamblers in position to run the handicapping business. Sports handicappers the real ones, are in teh business of balanced books, and collecting on the fees. That's always been the case since the Stardust first opened 50 years ago, since sports books were kept in back rooms in bars going back to the 700s in this country.....the stardust is now gone, and you get guys like whaler, and others around here, saying that a balanced ledger is nonsense now - because of online gambling. The stardust has been gone for 5 years now, and legitimate sports books have been shrinking proportionally to the growth of online gambling for a decade now.

The good news for sports, real sports, is that the danger of somethign happening, like what happened at BC in the late 1990s, is very slim, outside of a bunch of players deciding themselves to do it. The external pressure from the gambling world is shrinking, as gamblers can manipulate lines now, rather than having to go to the players themselves.

Which is why again, any player, player friend, or family member needs to turn around, run away at a high rate of speed and screaming loudly, if they hear anyone talkign about gambling.

 

[temery]

Why do I get the feeling that the OP was not a serious question. The creator of the BY, someone who obviously has followed college football for a while, asks about the spread and what it means?

I know less about gambling than I do about football or basketball. Which isn't much.

 

[CL82]

Carl: preseason camp is over and we now all need to be in form. I would therefor recommend that you not make it so easy for us!

Beat me to it:

"If so - we continue to completely disagree, and that won't change - so no use continuing, but I will anyway. "

So few words, yet they convey so much.

 

[HeGotGame]

Any player, player friend, or player family member, when hearing anyone speak about gambling should immediately turn and run in the opposite direction, screaming loudly.

I can't stress that enough.

We get your concerned about players gambling, give it a rest. Time to step off the anti-gambling soap box.

Also, so much of what you wrote about the line and money for gambling is so far off.

 

[Rondogg]

The only thing I don't like about offshore gambling is the increasing difficulty I have with getting and sending money. Too much BS from OUR GOVERNMENT! Legalize it here.

 

[Carl Spackler]

For the record, FOX News had an interesting take on the terrible lines for UConn this year and how easy it will be for them to apparently cover the spread against NC State:

http://www.foxnews.com/sports/2012/09/06/vegas-missed-boat-on-connecticut/

That looks like some kind of handicapper blog or something, that made it onto that website, not a news report. He's recommending bets there. It used to be the media job simply to report the lines, not provide advice.....

There are thousands of gambling handicappers, all over the internet, and any putz can do it, the same way anybody can post anything else on the internet and get people to read it.....handicapping used to be a professional business, and if you were more of a gambler, rather than a bookie, it got exposed real quick.......believe it or not, in my in between days figuring out where I was going with my life, when the rug got pulled out on me, a long time ago, I got mixed up with making ends meet, in the business of gambling collections, right here in CT. Not gambling itself, I've never been interested in that, but knocking on somebody's door that owed money? I"ve done it. Thankfully, I got out of it quick, and without every really doing anything but standing there and not seeing any guns pulled. Place called Father Panik village. Doesn't exist anymore, most of it got plowed under in 1986, otherwise, the business would have stayed there.

The barrier of a computer, and getting your bank accounts beat up electronically in the privacy of your home, is a lot different than having somebody show up at your doorstep looking for cash. Nobody ducked the lines prior to online gambling.

The line that Vegas set, on uconn/umass - was on an obscure college football game - UConn - UMass, in the grand scheme of betting. It was a good line, if there was no online gambling. No way equal money was coming all the way through the system to Vegas on a UConn/UMass line that was set at UConn +35. Nor is ti coming in equal on a line set at UConn +10.

THe online gambling world has changed everything about gambling, and not for the better.

I'm walking away from the computer now, ddont' want to keep writing about htis. Need an intervention.

Again - any current player, friend of player, family member - when gambling talk surfaces, turn and run, screaming loudly. UConn fans - keep this business away from the team.

 

[whaler11]

You are absolutely correct. I do not know where people get this idea, but it is wrong. It is usually people who think they know about gambling but really have no clue.

This conversation has been absurd. Carl is so far wrong and so convinced he is right it's funny. He has one thing right. Players don't talk to gamblers, that's about it.

 

[Carl Spackler]

This conversation has been absurd. Carl is so far wrong and so convinced he is right it's funny. He has one thing right. Players don't talk to gamblers, that's about it.

I think I"m probably just a lot older than most of the people around here. As is the case a lot, younger people tend to think older people are wrong about everything, until they get there.

 

[mattp]

THe online gambling world has changed everything about gambling, and not for the better.

I'm walking away from the computer now, ddont' want to keep writing about htis. Need an intervention.

Again - any current player, friend of player, family member - when gambling talk surfaces, turn and run, screaming loudly. UConn fans - keep this business away from the team.

i think it's time for you to take a walk or meditate or something. there's nothing insidious about on line gambling. on line gambling hasn't changed anything about gambling except people don't have to know a bookie now. I'm actually going to say on line gambling can often be safer b/c they usually only let you gamble money in your account so people can't get in over their head. the biggest gripe i have with it is what rondogg said about the US making it difficult to load an account. i haven't personally had an on line account for about a decade because of that.

 

[Carl Spackler]

Good lord is that naive.

Just because you can bet a dime on a game from your computer in the privacy of your room or home, does not make it safer than 'traditional' gambling. Couldn't be further from the truth. Never mind the viewpoint you might about what removing the actual need for human interaction in gambling, if you ascribe to the concept that gambling is a disease equal with say - alcoholism or drug abuse.

Maybe I'm wrong, I'm just an internet message board poster.

Here's what a former NYC governments securty bonds, and hedge fund manager is doing in Las Vegas, when it comes to sports books.

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2010/12/24/taking-risks-making-odds/

"Sports book operators make most of their money charging a small commission on bets. They then try to match a bet on any given game with an opposite wager, essentially neutralizing the risk of that bet. If they can’t, operators typically try to change the money line, making it more attractive for bettors to vote on the other team."


Online betting? They can screw around with the lines all they want, jsut the way you young people think it's "normal" now. And there is no regulation. The closest thing to regulation, is the thing that you are b(tching about, that thankfully our country leadership has been pushed to put in place, to protect our citiczens both from themselves ndn from others. Professional tennis is ducked up now because of it. Italian soccer? oh jeez, never mind.

Thanks Tom.

 

[Adios]

I think I"m probably just a lot older than most of the people around here. As is the case a lot, younger people tend to think older people are wrong about everything, until they get there.

Carl, some of the people on this board are older than you might think they are. Just saying. I am probably a kid compared to some here. Personally, I don't gamble or care to.

 

[whaler11]

I think I"m probably just a lot older than most of the people around here. As is the case a lot, younger people tend to think older people are wrong about everything, until they get there.

We are almost the same age. You are 100% wrong on this. I understand I'm talking to a wall. There are things you know a lot about, I am not going to debate you on blocking schemes or the Navy, but you have no idea what you are talking about on this subject.

 

[SAMCRO]

and with that, Im done with this. i'm more concerned with real winner and loser on saturday, not the money winners and losers against the point spread.

This was posted 6 hours and about 10 Spackler posts ago.