Betting lines

[temery]

I've asked this before but can't remember the answer. What does it mean, "NC St -6.5" or "UConn + 6.5"? I am assuming one team is the favorite by 6.5 points. Which one? I sort of remember the team with the minus pts is expected to win.

Is NC St expected to win this game?

 

[CodyJ.]

It means that NC State is supposed to win by a TD

 

[mattp]

apparently Vegas hasn't consulted with the Boneyard yet. the spread i saw was NCState -4.5. if it is -6.5 now then you ought to be able to get close to 2:1 on the money line if you bet UConn to win.

 

[Jimmy Serrano]

I think the line before the season started was at 7.....then after both of our games were played it went down to 4 or so.....then the money was on NC St and now it sits around 6.5 points.

But yes, NC State is favored to win this game.

 

[Carl Spackler]

NC State -5 this morning. the line bumped back up. NC State -5 is the same thing as UConn +5.

What the numbers mean, is that if you bet on a game, you are betting against the point spread, and not on the actual winner or loser. If you put money on NC State to win (against the line) you are picking NC State to win by more than 5 points, otherwise you lose your bet. (If NCState were to win by 3 points on a field goal - you lose your bet.)

If you bet on UConn to win (against the spread), UConn can lose the game by those three points, but you still win your bet. UConn could win the game though, by 3 points, and you still lose your bet.


With these gambling things - the only thing you ever really need to realize, is that the las vegas books (there are other legal books around the country now) that process the vast majority of all the billions in gambling money (most of it illegal across state lines btw).....

Those bookies don't really give a rat's ass about who they think will win or not, they establish lines, based on who they think people will bet on, and who people bet on, is not directly correlated to who might actually be the better team, or whatever.

The bookies #1, and only goal, is to make sure that equal money is being wagered on both sides (roughly the same amount of money is coming in for NC State to win, as is on the other side from UConn). THe bookies take their slice from the entire pie, and then the money exchanges hands when it's over, and the casinos get richer.

When the bets on a game are coming in very much one sided, that's when a sports book loses money, because they can't take the money wagered on the opposite side of the game, to pay off the winnings, and those payouts for winning need to come from somewhere else.

That's the entire reason that point spreads exist - to make sure that the sports books are getting equal money on both sides of the game.

NC State line started high, b/c the books figured that most people would lay money on NC State, but they wanted to force people to put money on UConn, and a 7pt favorite on the road, is a tough bet....and as is often the case, they were right, and it worked, and enough people started putting money on UConn that the line dropped to 4.5 as of yesterday, and is back up to 5 again today. The line will probably end up being at NC State +6.5 and the people that originally bet on NC State or UConn at the 7pt spread will be very happy with the percentages they've got in winning, either way, and when the money all exchanges hands after it's all over, the bets will be even on both sides, and the sports books will end up making money on it.

I don't gamble though. But you've got to understand your enemy, if you want to be able to fight/control it. Gambling is the dark underbelly of big time sports. Shaving points, etc......

 

[sportsart]

Why do I get the feeling that the OP was not a serious question. The creator of the BY, someone who obviously has followed college football for a while, asks about the spread and what it means?

 

[BlueMAB]

If you bet on UConn to win (against the spread), UConn can lose the game by those three points, but you still win your bet. UConn could win the game though, by 3 points, and you still lose your bet.

If UConn wins outright, you win your bet since they covered the spread.

 

[whaler11]

The single biggest misconception on gambling is that the books are trying to balance the money equally on both sides.

Extra bonus for having the line movement completely wrong. It opened at 1, not 7 and went up. The 7 point line was a projection from a website early in the summer that predicted the line for every game. There was never a line on this game until Sunday when it opened at 1 and instantly went to 4.

 

[Carl Spackler]

If UConn wins outright, you win your bet since they covered the spread.

I got crossed up didn't I? Oh well, like I said, I'm not a gambler.

Gambling isn't a joke topic though. Ask Boston College. When I was at UConn, lots of money changed hands on weekends around football, and I'm sure it's no different now.

Every single player on the team needs to be educated about it, and I'm sure that our coaches, fresh out of the NFL have addressed it somehow. A player, friends or family of a player, ever get approached by a bookie or bettor, they got to run the other way screaming as fast as they can.

 

[Carl Spackler]

The single biggest misconception on gambling is that the books are trying to balance the money equally on both sides.

Please educate us.

 

[BlueMAB]

The single biggest misconception on gambling is that the books are trying to balance the money equally on both sides.

Could you explain why?

 

[CL82]

The single biggest misconception on gambling is that the books are trying to balance the money equally on both sides.

Extra bonus for having the line movement completely wrong. It opened at 1, not 7 and went up. The 7 point line was a projection from a website early in the summer that predicted the line for every game. There was never a line on this game until Sunday when it opened at 1 and instantly went to 4.

So what's the answer, that they are trying to generate volume w/o losing money?

 

[BlueMAB]

There was never a line on this game until Sunday when it opened at 1 and instantly went to 4.

I understand that the 7 number was a projection, but can you explain why lines move?

 

[Carl Spackler]

Where the line started and where it is now, is irrelevant, I saw it at 7 a few days ago, 4.5 yesterday and 5 this morning. People looking elsewhere might find different things. The only lines that really matter are the ones on the big boards in Vegas, and the places in the country that exist now that have legal books in other states, of which CT native american casinos are not included, and I'm glad, and want it to stay that way.

The question is - why do you say it's a misconception that books want equal money on both sides of a bet?

 

[whaler11]

Could you explain why?

Explain why they do it? That's pretty simple. Maximize their winnings.

How they do it gets more complicated. Your average local bookie is probably thrilled to have equal money on each side and take their 5%-10%. They don't have the capital to take as much risk.

The offshore and vegas books absolutely take positions on games and manipulate the public into betting a side in many games. The people that run them admit that they take positions and don't have the goal of equal money on both sides.

 

[whaler11]

Where the line started and where it is now, is irrelevant, I saw it at 7 a few days ago, 4.5 yesterday and 5 this morning. People looking elsewhere might find different things. The only lines that really matter are the ones on the big boards in Vegas, and the places in the country that exist now that have legal books in other states, of which CT native american casinos are not included, and I'm glad, and want it to stay that way.

The question is - why do you say it's a misconception that books want equal money on both sides of a bet?

It got to 6.5. But true it doesn't matter

It's a misconception because it's completely false but many people believe it.

 

[Carl Spackler]

Explain why they do it? That's pretty simple. Maximize their winnings.

How they do it gets more complicated. Your average local bookie is probably thrilled to have equal money on each side and take their 5%-10%. They don't have the capital to take as much risk.

The offshore and vegas books absolutely take positions on games and manipulate the public into betting a side in many games. The people that run them admit that they take positions and don't have the goal of equal money on both sides.

Your average bookie? Your average local bookie is calling his bets in to somebody along a phone chain, that's connected to Vegas and putting your money that you think you just laid down on X vs. Y game, on whatever that average bookie wants to bet on, and he's got a ledger somewhere of what he owes you if you happen to win, and you better believe that anybody that's doing it, that's not some schmuck 18 year old kid, is each and every week, making sure that they've got equal money coming in and going out on their own ledger, and the same principle works all the way to the casino for whoever's taking the bets.......

the system goes right down the line like that until the actual bet gets placed in Vegas (or Delaware, or Montana or wherever the hell else you can legally bet on sports these days).

Off shore, online gambling has changed things a bit, as to how and when ledgers get balanced, but I 100% completely disagree with you. A bookie operating without a balanced ledger is either in broken bones by baseball bat deep trouble, or an idiot, that will soon be in broken bone by baseball bat deep trouble.

.

 

[Carl Spackler]

and btw - your answer to the question (it's a misconception because it's completely false but many people believe it - is the definition of misconception - not the answer to..

why do you say it's a misconception that books want equal money on both sides of a bet?

So

why do you say it's it's completely false but many people believe it, that books want equal money on both sides of a bet?

 

[whaler11]

Your average bookie? Your average local bookie is calling his bets in to somebody along a phone chain, that's connected to Vegas and putting your money that you think you just laid down on X vs. Y game, on whatever that average bookie wants to bet on, and he's got a ledger somewhere of what he owes you if you happen to win, and you better believe that anybody that's doing it, that's not some schmuck 18 year old kid, is each and every week, making sure that they've got equal money coming in and going out on their own ledger, and the same principle works all the way to the casino for whoever's taking the bets.......

the system goes right down the line like that until the actual bet gets placed in Vegas (or Delaware, or Montana or wherever the hell else you can legally bet on sports these days).

Off shore, online gambling has changed things a bit, as to how and when ledgers get balanced, but I 100% completely disagree with you. A bookie operating without a balanced ledger is either in broken bones by baseball bat deep trouble, or an idiot, that will soon be in broken bone by baseball bat deep trouble.

.

Vegas and offshore books are not only attempting to balance wagers. It's not even really up for debate, unless you think they are all lying - and somehow working together to keep the secret.

There are websites that will show you bet volume on games. If books could only be profitable by balancing bets - well it's obvious they are doing a terrible job as they almost never accomplish it in a single game nevermind across a day or weekend.

If you think every local bookie is pushing their action all the way to vegas you are nuts. There are some who take enough action that they lay some off at times on games - but the idea that every local guy is connected to some huge ring is laughable.

 

[whaler11]

and btw - your answer to the question (it's a misconception because it's completely false but many people believe it - is the definition of misconception - not the answer to..

why do you say it's a misconception that books want equal money on both sides of a bet?

So

why do you say it's it's completely false but many people believe it, that books want equal money on both sides of a bet?

Because they neither just want nor attempt to have equal money on both sides.

 

[Carl Spackler]

Ok - whaler - so you say a casino sports book, does not try, and is not interested in having equal money on both sides of a bet - right?

and you also say, that when you pick up the phone, and dial up your local bookie - that there isn't a chain of communication that is directly linked to a legal sports book somewhere in the country? right?

If so - we continue to completely disagree, and that won't change - so no use continuing, but I will anyway.

Because if that's your position, I guarantee that you have never met, talked with, or interacted in any way with sports gambling beyond an independant young guy somewhere that has the cajones to start taking bets on their own, and doesn't really know who they in turn are talking to, if at all, and was soon done with the business after a season at most, b/c they couldn't keep a balanced ledger, or you've just dealt with online gambling world.

(the online gambling world is also connected to the legal casino books, but we'll probably disagree about that too).

It's the online world and the bets that flow from there that have changed the old school handicappers in vegas from what they were prior,to what they are now. There was a time when a move in a line like what has happened to UConn NC State within a week, would be a reason for people to seriously start to look at whether or not there was a fix on a game.

THe online world, has made big fluctuations in lines a normal thing. Because most of the people that bet online, have no idea what the hell they are doing.

Gambling is the dirty underworld of big time athletics. Anyone involved in big time athletics needs to be aware, and educated about it.

and with that, Im done with this. i'm more concerned with real winner and loser on saturday, not the money winners and losers against the point spread.

 

[BlueMAB]

Explain why they do it? That's pretty simple. Maximize their winnings.

How they do it gets more complicated. Your average local bookie is probably thrilled to have equal money on each side and take their 5%-10%. They don't have the capital to take as much risk.

The offshore and vegas books absolutely take positions on games and manipulate the public into betting a side in many games. The people that run them admit that they take positions and don't have the goal of equal money on both sides.

Thanks, I get what you're saying.

So for the sake of discussion, the books could look at UConn as a solid home team that has done well ATS in recent years and open up NCSU at -1 and then quickly move the line up to -4 to make it look like NCSU is getting heavy action and the smart money is on NCSU, when in reality they are looking at a UConn win and big win for the book?

I like it.

 

[BlueMAB]

Ok - whaler - so you say a casino sports book, does not try, and is not interested in having equal money on both sides of a bet - right?

and you also say, that when you pick up the phone, and dial up your local bookie - that there isn't a chain of communication that is directly linked to a legal sports book somewhere in the country? right?

If so - we continue to completely disagree, and that won't change - so no use continuing, but I will anyway.

Because if that's your position, I guarantee that you have never met, talked with, or interacted in any way with sports gambling beyond an independant young guy somewhere that has the cajones to start taking bets on their own, and doesn't really know who they in turn are talking to, if at all, and was soon done with the business after a season at most, b/c they couldn't keep a balanced ledger, or you've just dealt with online gambling world.

(the online gambling world is also connected to the legal casino books, but we'll probably disagree about that too).

It's the online world and the bets that flow from there that have changed the old school handicappers in vegas from what they were prior,to what they are now. There was a time when a move in a line like what has happened to UConn NC State within a week, would be a reason for people to seriously start to look at whether or not there was a fix on a game.

THe online world, has made big fluctuations in lines a normal thing. Because most of the people that bet online, have no idea what the hell they are doing.

Gambling is the dirty underworld of big time athletics. Anyone involved in big time athletics needs to be aware, and educated about it.

and with that, Im done with this. i'm more concerned with real winner and loser on saturday, not the money winners and losers against the point spread.

The interwebs is a wonderful thing. Many guys use a website for their lines, have the wagers entered via "credits", pay a "user fee" and exchange money directly with the gamblers. The bookie never even talks to the book. They just use the service and handle the money exchange. Times have changed.

 

[EdgewoodNHV]

All this talk of sports betting makes me wonder if there's even a day to do it legally. Not in CT, right? Only in Vegas?

 

[Carl Spackler]

Thanks, I get what you're saying.

So for the sake of discussion, the books could look at UConn as a solid home team that has done well ATS in recent years and open up NCSU at -1 and then quickly move the line up to -4 to make it look like NCSU is getting heavy action and the smart money is on NCSU, when in reality they are looking at a UConn win and big win for the book?

I like it.

That is exactly what happens in the online world of gambling, off shore gambling, and with small time independant bookies....and it's ruining the actual legitimate / legal sports books in the vegas casinos.

the people that operate those things, shift the lines around at will for who they take the bets from, set the lines wherever they want, to manipulate money to make themselves profit, and they're making enough money now, that they don't need to transfer their bets they've taken to vegas anymore, and are able to manage on their own.

Big headache for mobsters. Drives the casino handicappers crazy. Sports gambling is decreasing in casinos because of off shore - dog/horse racing? That stuff is on the rise.

The difference, is that when you placed a bet with an onshore connected bookie in the past, you knew your money was coming if you win, and it was only a matter of time and somebody else's broken bones, if you didn't get paid right away, and you knew if you lost, you better pay up. And you knew you weren't being taken advantage of.

The online casinos - those are the real criminals in gambling. They'll rip you off, and there's nothing that can be done about it.

Whaler is right about one thing, they manipulate lines at will for their own profit online. I'd rather place a bet with a real sports book - you know - if I were to place a bet.