Betting lines

[HeGotGame]

I think I"m probably just a lot older than most of the people around here. As is the case a lot, younger people tend to think older people are wrong about everything, until they get there.

Carl, do yourself a favor and listen to this:

http://espn.go.com/espnradio/play?id=8341879

You will educate yourself a little and learn how things actually work and that the 50/50 money is a huge myth. 25min mark talks about this.

 

[HeGotGame]

I think I"m probably just a lot older than most of the people around here. As is the case a lot, younger people tend to think older people are wrong about everything, until they get there.

Carl, do yourself a favor and listen to this:

http://espn.go.com/espnradio/play?id=8341879

You will educate yourself a little and learn how things actually work and that the 50/50 money is a huge myth. 25min mark talks about this.

 

[businesslawyer]

i think it's time for you to take a walk or meditate or something. there's nothing insidious about on line gambling. on line gambling hasn't changed anything about gambling except people don't have to know a bookie now. I'm actually going to say on line gambling can often be safer b/c they usually only let you gamble money in your account so people can't get in over their head. the biggest gripe i have with it is what rondogg said about the US making it difficult to load an account. i haven't personally had an on line account for about a decade because of that.

I can't tell you how much I disagree with that. The physical acts of gambling -- handing a bookie cash -- serve as a brake on behavior. An 18 year old with a bankcard and a computer is not easily able to feel the risk and loss the way he would at a casino.

Not to mention, how in the world do you stop underage kids from gambling over a computer? And who is regulating an Antiguan on-line book when they run their games online? In the U.S., all legalized casinos are heavily regulated and inspected.

 

[mattp]

I can't tell you how much I disagree with that. The physical acts of gambling -- handing a bookie cash -- serve as a brake on behavior. An 18 year old with a bankcard and a computer is not easily able to feel the risk and loss the way he would at a casino.

Not to mention, how in the world do you stop underage kids from gambling over a computer? And who is regulating an Antiguan on-line book when they run their games online? In the U.S., all legalized casinos are heavily regulated and inspected.

keep in mind you're talking to the idiot that lost $400 in on line roulette. obviously a lot of alcohol and boredom was involved, how easy would it be to fix on line roulette? after i sobered up the next morning i felt like the #1 biggest chump of all time

 

[Sean]

No clue why Spackler referenced Savannah State.

Whaler - you know this but I think you are oversimplifying - generally if there are 80% on one side of the tickets, yet the line moves reverse - that means there is either a whale/expert on one side, or that the avg bet size on one side is enormous...

Books take positions all the time, but I don't think they are exactly firing from the hip ready to take non 50/50 action too frequently. They won't stress over it bc they'd get killed if they did, but I do think its generally optimal for them.

 

[whaler11]

No clue why Spackler referenced Savannah State.

Whaler - you know this but I think you are oversimplifying - generally if there are 80% on one side of the tickets, yet the line moves reverse - that means there is either a whale/expert on one side, or that the avg bet size on one side is enormous...

Books take positions all the time, but I don't think they are exactly firing from the hip ready to take non 50/50 action too frequently. They won't stress over it bc they'd get killed if they did, but I do think its generally optimal for them.

Other than the fact they almost never have 50-50 action on a game sure. The internet will all but tell you this is the way it is but I guess urban legends don't die.

 

[sportsart]

I'm still wondering why Tom has not chimed in on my post regarding his OP.

There is not a chance in hell he did not understand what the spread meant. When you stop laughing Tom could you bless us with a response?

Bueller, Bueller..........?

 

[Sean]

Other than the fact they almost never have 50-50 action on a game sure. The internet will all but tell you this is the way it is but I guess urban legends don't die.

I mean, how close to 50/50 would it have to be for you to say thats the target? If the standard deviation keeps most games within 65/35, can we really rule out that they are shooting for 50/50? Particularly if there is no pattern between any other factor as to when they miss?

I work in insurance - I believe possibly at the same company you do. Every time we write a policy, all we know is that it won't come in anywhere near the price we charged - we've either made a nice profit on our insured, or our insured has crushed us. That doesn't mean that we aren't SHOOTING to charge the expected value of loss, though (plus expenses and my salary, of course).

For what its worth, I think we agree here a lot more than we disagree - its mostly semantics.

 

[whaler11]

Lol on 50/50. 70 to 80% of money on Packers last night. Call shifted between 200-300 million to bookmakers from gamblers. Mandalay Bay had a half million in bets with 85% on GB.

If their goal is 50/50 why are they all still employed?