Betting lines

[businesslawyer]

so no use continuing, but I will anyway.

Carl: preseason camp is over and we now all need to be in form. I would therefor recommend that you not make it so easy for us!

 

[Carl Spackler]

All this talk of sports betting makes me wonder if there's even a day to do it legally. Not in CT, right? Only in Vegas?

Not in CT. The casinos in CT have horses, dogs, etc. but no sports. We're better off as the major sports institution in the state, that way. If you ask me.

If you've got time and have the gumption to be able to get through a really dry, and long book, read: "Interference : Gambling and football - by Dan Moldea.

I think it was published in the late 1980s. Professional football rose up because all the crooks that made money on bootlegging booze during prohibition, needed a different method of making money, when alcohol prohibition was reversed. Gambling on college games dates back to the 1800s, and was going strong, and was what led all those original NFL owners to the business, when they couldn't move money as discreetly through horse tracks.

 

[Waquoit]

Gambling is the dirty underworld of big time athletics. Anyone involved in big time athletics needs to be aware, and educated about it.

No, it isn't. What's bigger time than the Olympics? You could gamble on any event on any London street corner. What's dirty about that?

 

[whaler11]

Ok - whaler - so you say a casino sports book, does not try, and is not interested in having equal money on both sides of a bet - right?

and you also say, that when you pick up the phone, and dial up your local bookie - that there isn't a chain of communication that is directly linked to a legal sports book somewhere in the country? right?

If so - we continue to completely disagree, and that won't change - so no use continuing, but I will anyway.

Because if that's your position, I guarantee that you have never met, talked with, or interacted in any way with sports gambling beyond an independant young guy somewhere that has the cajones to start taking bets on their own, and doesn't really know who they in turn are talking to, if at all, and was soon done with the business after a season at most, b/c they couldn't keep a balanced ledger, or you've just dealt with online gambling world.

(the online gambling world is also connected to the legal casino books, but we'll probably disagree about that too).

It's the online world and the bets that flow from there that have changed the old school handicappers in vegas from what they were prior,to what they are now. There was a time when a move in a line like what has happened to UConn NC State within a week, would be a reason for people to seriously start to look at whether or not there was a fix on a game.

THe online world, has made big fluctuations in lines a normal thing. Because most of the people that bet online, have no idea what the hell they are doing.

Gambling is the dirty underworld of big time athletics. Anyone involved in big time athletics needs to be aware, and educated about it.

and with that, Im done with this. i'm more concerned with real winner and loser on saturday, not the money winners and losers against the point spread.

1. Sometimes they are fine with equal money. Most times they come nowhere near equal money. It's a fact it isn't their goal no matter how long you dispute it.

Either you are wrong about the goal of equal money or the people that run the business are horribly bad at their jobs AND don't go out of business nor get replaced with someone who can get equal money. Shocking this reality doesn't sway you.

2. Some bookies are part of large national network, where some money ends up in casinos or offshore - plenty of local people run their own operations.

You are wrong as wrong can be but don't worry I didn't expect to change your mind.

You couldn't be more wrong and still blather and have the nerve to assume what my experience is. That's pretty funny.

The UConn line moved from 4 to 6. If you think that would have been a huge conspiracy 15-20 years ago... Honestly thats just idiotic.

In a sport where Cam Newton's father sold him to Auburn for 200k you think gambling is the dirty underworld? The University of North Carolina gives degrees to football players for classes that don't exist - that isn't the dirty underworld? Ha.

Thank you for stopping. If you don't care why would you spend so much time talking about things you are so uninformed on? I hope your naval histories are more accurate.

 

[whaler11]

Thanks, I get what you're saying.

So for the sake of discussion, the books could look at UConn as a solid home team that has done well ATS in recent years and open up NCSU at -1 and then quickly move the line up to -4 to make it look like NCSU is getting heavy action and the smart money is on NCSU, when in reality they are looking at a UConn win and big win for the book?

I like it.

1 was just a bad line that they took low limit early action on. It existed for like 15 minutes.

Under Edsall UConn was a cover machine especially as a dog and especially at home. I don't think there is any opinion on this staff - if anything they were bad ATS last year especially at home (2-4) off top of my head.

If you are looking for a game where they are taking a side - money has to be pouring in on Cinci because people overreact to one game and that line has only inched along slowly. They probably think Cinci is really only 3 points better and if people are willing to lay 4.5/5 they will take their chances.

 

[whaler11]

Not in CT. The casinos in CT have horses, dogs, etc. but no sports. We're better off as the major sports institution in the state, that way. If you ask me.

If you've got time and have the gumption to be able to get through a really dry, and long book, read: "Interference : Gambling and football - by Dan Moldea.

I think it was published in the late 1980s. Professional football rose up because all the crooks that made money on bootlegging booze during prohibition, needed a different method of making money, when alcohol prohibition was reversed. Gambling on college games dates back to the 1800s, and was going strong, and was what led all those original NFL owners to the business, when they couldn't move money as discreetly through horse tracks.

Wouldn't it be better to put that money to legitimate businesses and have the state take their cut rather than allowing criminal elements to take it? Are Ontario or Delaware worse off because they have gov't sponsored sports gambling?

 

[Carl Spackler]

Wouldn't it be better to put that money to legitimate businesses and have the state take their cut rather than allowing criminal elements to take it? Are Ontario or Delaware worse off because they have gov't sponsored sports gambling?

It would be better for CT to stop being a welfare state, if you want to get to the heart of the matter when it comes to state politics and economics.

 

[whaler11]

It would be better for CT to stop being a welfare state, if you want to get to the heart of the matter when it comes to state politics and economics.

That would be tremendous, but a bit out of scope.

 

[mattp]

Vegas and offshore books are not only attempting to balance wagers. It's not even really up for debate, unless you think they are all lying - and somehow working together to keep the secret.

There are websites that will show you bet volume on games. If books could only be profitable by balancing bets - well it's obvious they are doing a terrible job as they almost never accomplish it in a single game nevermind across a day or weekend.

If you think every local bookie is pushing their action all the way to vegas you are nuts. There are some who take enough action that they lay some off at times on games - but the idea that every local guy is connected to some huge ring is laughable.

i'm not looking to argue about this, but could you tell me about the websites that show bet volume on games? if the smart Vegas money really is taking sides, i'd like to be able to see which side their taking

 

[mattp]

All this talk of sports betting makes me wonder if there's even a day to do it legally. Not in CT, right? Only in Vegas?

i think there's actually 3-4 states where it's legal now, and according to Chris Christie you can do it in NJ now, but the federal gov't disagrees. the people that run the Monmouth Racetrack have said they'd have sports betting up and running by the start of the NFL season. I'm not sure if they did yet, but Christie pretty much said he dared the federal government to come in and try to shut them down. it could get really interesting

 

[whaler11]

i'm not looking to argue about this, but could you tell me about the websites that show bet volume on games? if the smart Vegas money really is taking sides, i'd like to be able to see which side their taking

I believe sportsinsights.com gives a free trial. Note the data isn't perfect because it gives ticket counts and not dollars wagered. It is certainly something a lot of people use and there is probably a bunch of data on there about what the records when it's 80% or higher on one side.

I talked someone out of the Giants over last night with the data. Whole world was on the over but the line dropped... If they wanted half and half wouldn't it go up? Odd....

 

[mattp]

I talked someone out of the Giants over last night with the data. Whole world was on the over but the line dropped... If they wanted half and half wouldn't it go up? Odd....

i know a lot of people that liked the Giants and the over. it seems like whenever almost everyone i know that gambles agrees on something, they lose their shirts. personally i don't really get much of a rush from gambling so i only wager a few times a season when it just seems too easy, like us giving only 22 against UMass last weekend.

 

[BlueMAB]

i know a lot of people that liked the Giants and the over. it seems like whenever almost everyone i know that gambles agrees on something, they lose their shirts. personally i don't really get much of a rush from gambling so i only wager a few times a season when it just seems too easy, like us giving only 22 against UMass last weekend.

I couldn't get in on UConn at 22 last week due to extenuating circumstances, still upset about that. I loved it at 22. When was the last time we didn't cover 22 against an FCS team? (I know they are FBS on paper, but on the field they aren't yet)

 

[BlueMAB]

Under Edsall UConn was a cover machine especially as a dog and especially at home. I don't think there is any opinion on this staff - if anything they were bad ATS last year especially at home (2-4) off top of my head.

There's another reason I was an Edsall defender. He won me a lot of money.

Coach P was terrible ATS last year. I think that was a result of the coaching change. I expect much better this year.

 

[Carl Spackler]

I believe sportsinsights.com gives a free trial. Note the data isn't perfect because it gives ticket counts and not dollars wagered. It is certainly something a lot of people use and there is probably a bunch of data on there about what the records when it's 80% or higher on one side.

I talked someone out of the Giants over last night with the data. Whole world was on the over but the line dropped... If they wanted half and half wouldn't it go up? Odd....

There's no regulation on offshore online gambling,and there's no guarantee you'll get paid if you win, but they will track you down if you lose and don't pay up, and they most certainly are in control of the gambling lines, because if anyone of them simply calls vegas and dumps a huge amount of money on a game, the lines will change dramatically, and they do set the lines with the intent of making profit on the money coming in on the bet, not on their surcharge, as the legal books do.

Online gambling might be one of the most crooked rackets ever devised.

 

[Carl Spackler]

I believe sportsinsights.com gives a free trial. Note the data isn't perfect because it gives ticket counts and not dollars wagered. It is certainly something a lot of people use and there is probably a bunch of data on there about what the records when it's 80% or higher on one side.

I talked someone out of the Giants over last night with the data. Whole world was on the over but the line dropped... If they wanted half and half wouldn't it go up? Odd....

the online gambling world, is a dangerous thing. Be careful. The physical, emotional and psychological barrier that a computer creates, that isn 't there when you're dealing with people directly when placing bets, collecting and/or paying up cash - gives a false sense of security, and the people that run the online world, are a hell of a lot more dangerous than the vegas underworld.

Nuff said.

 

[Carl Spackler]

Our difference whaler - is that you are discussing the online gambling world, which is not run the same way as the real world casino sports book world, and what's interesting is that the online world is running the vegas sports books into the ground, and what that eventually means, especially if the sports books go south far enough that they won't take the giant bets that come in from offshore......is that the billions of dollars that exchange hands every year aroudn football, is very quickly, becoming entirely DE-regulated.

 

[HeGotGame]

The single biggest misconception on gambling is that the books are trying to balance the money equally on both sides.

Extra bonus for having the line movement completely wrong. It opened at 1, not 7 and went up. The 7 point line was a projection from a website early in the summer that predicted the line for every game. There was never a line on this game until Sunday when it opened at 1 and instantly went to 4.

The single biggest misconception on gambling is that the books are trying to balance the money equally on both sides.

Extra bonus for having the line movement completely wrong. It opened at 1, not 7 and went up. The 7 point line was a projection from a website early in the summer that predicted the line for every game. There was never a line on this game until Sunday when it opened at 1 and instantly went to 4.

You are absolutely correct. I do not know where people get this idea, but it is wrong. It is usually people who think they know about gambling but really have no clue.

 

[HeGotGame]

The single biggest misconception on gambling is that the books are trying to balance the money equally on both sides.

Extra bonus for having the line movement completely wrong. It opened at 1, not 7 and went up. The 7 point line was a projection from a website early in the summer that predicted the line for every game. There was never a line on this game until Sunday when it opened at 1 and instantly went to 4.

The single biggest misconception on gambling is that the books are trying to balance the money equally on both sides.

Extra bonus for having the line movement completely wrong. It opened at 1, not 7 and went up. The 7 point line was a projection from a website early in the summer that predicted the line for every game. There was never a line on this game until Sunday when it opened at 1 and instantly went to 4.

You are absolutely correct. I do not know where people get this idea, but it is wrong. It is usually people who think they know about gambling but really have no clue.

 

[whaler11]

There's no regulation on offshore online gambling,and there's no guarantee you'll get paid if you win, but they will track you down if you lose and don't pay up, and they most certainly are in control of the gambling lines, because if anyone of them simply calls vegas and dumps a huge amount of money on a game, the lines will change dramatically, and they do set the lines with the intent of making profit on the money coming in on the bet, not on their surcharge, as the legal books do.

Online gambling might be one of the most crooked rackets ever devised.

You are wrong. Legal books take positions. Anyone gambling offshore is gutsier than I, don't disagree with that.

Yesterday is an example of the line moving against the money -

 

[Carl Spackler]

Any player, player friend, or player family member, when hearing anyone speak about gambling should immediately turn and run in the opposite direction, screaming loudly.

I can't stress that enough.

 

[EdgewoodNHV]

For the record, FOX News had an interesting take on the terrible lines for UConn this year and how easy it will be for them to apparently cover the spread against NC State:

http://www.foxnews.com/sports/2012/09/06/vegas-missed-boat-on-connecticut/

 

[Carl Spackler]

You are absolutely correct. I do not know where people get this idea, but it is wrong. It is usually people who think they know about gambling but really have no clue.

100% correct. A gambler, by definition - is somebody that's taking a chance on an uncertain outcome. There are plenty of gamblers that are also "placing" bets at the same time that they're "taking" bets. I've already discussed this. Not looking at the online world (which I know is probably non-sense to the majority of people reading here)...but in the real people talking to people world with their own voices.......the vast majority of bookies are most definitely stacking bets - they're simply gambling with other people's money on top of their own.

This is exactly what has happened in the online world, gamblers realize, exactly what's been described, that if they can collect $100 from somebody at a 1-pt spread, and then bump that up to a 4pt spread at will - they can make a lot of money. That kind of thing, in the past - was a clear sign that somebody was fixing a game. Now - it's simply a sign that gamblers are fixing the lines now - it's easier than convincing a player to shave points in a game.

At the very top, you don't put gamblers in position to run the handicapping business. Sports handicappers the real ones, are in teh business of balanced books, and collecting on the fees. That's always been the case since the Stardust first opened 50 years ago, since sports books were kept in back rooms in bars going back to the 700s in this country.....the stardust is now gone, and you get guys like whaler, and others around here, saying that a balanced ledger is nonsense now - because of online gambling. The stardust has been gone for 5 years now, and legitimate sports books have been shrinking proportionally to the growth of online gambling for a decade now.

The good news for sports, real sports, is that the danger of somethign happening, like what happened at BC in the late 1990s, is very slim, outside of a bunch of players deciding themselves to do it. The external pressure from the gambling world is shrinking, as gamblers can manipulate lines now, rather than having to go to the players themselves.

Which is why again, any player, player friend, or family member needs to turn around, run away at a high rate of speed and screaming loudly, if they hear anyone talkign about gambling.

 

[temery]

Why do I get the feeling that the OP was not a serious question. The creator of the BY, someone who obviously has followed college football for a while, asks about the spread and what it means?

I know less about gambling than I do about football or basketball. Which isn't much.

 

[CL82]

Carl: preseason camp is over and we now all need to be in form. I would therefor recommend that you not make it so easy for us!

Beat me to it:

"If so - we continue to completely disagree, and that won't change - so no use continuing, but I will anyway. "

So few words, yet they convey so much.