Best case/worst case for 2012-13: player-by-player

[alexrgct]

Thought it would be fun to break down the team into its component parts and discuss the spectrum of possibility for each player.

Caroline Doty:

Best case- while in Canada this summer, Caroline gets her legs back under her a bit more, and her shot starts falling at a better clip next year. Her improved shooting, on top of her on and off-court leadership, allow her to finish her career on a very high note.
Worst case- well, I could say the worst case would be another injury, but really, that could be said of anybody. The worst case short of that is that her shot remains errant, she’s unable to defend on-ball against elite teams, but she still provides excellent on and off-court leadership and is a terrific antidote to trapping/pressing teams.
My guess- I think Caroline gets her shot back a bit and at least flirts with 40% next season, but she’s still going to have trouble against elite guards. But she will finish her career on a very high note.

Heather Buck:

Best case- Heather earns a consistent 5-10 minutes per game behind Stef and Kiah and puts those minutes to good use against Baylor, containing Brittney Griner just enough.
Worst case- Heather is used sparingly and inconsistently, and her solid performances against BG the past two years prove to be fool’s gold.
My guess- Closer to the best case. UConn will have a really nice 1-2-3 punch at the five spot, and Heather will be part of it.

Kelly Faris:

Best case- it’s not realistic to think she can consistently bring that same urgency she showed in the final minute of regulation in the national semis, but in the best case, she consistently brings it every time the team needs her to do so.
Worst case- Kelly reverts to doing everything the right way except that she is too tentative on offense and allows opposing defenses to sag off of her and clog the lanes.
My guess- I think Kelly is one of the players who will be most helped by the arrival of the young pups. She will defend the perimeter much more frequently without having to bang on players much bigger than her night in and night out. This will allow her to stay fresh and play inspired ball when needed. She won’t get her name on the HoH wall, but she will be one of the most beloved players not to.

Stef Dolson:

Best case- Stef plays like she did in the BET and NCAA tourney last year, except she finds a way to stay out of foul trouble.
Worst case- Stef reverts to the largely flustered and inconsistent player we saw much of her sophomore season.
My guess- I don’t know about the foul trouble part of it, but I bet Stef becomes a big-time weapon next season. Like Kelly, she’s greatly helped by the additions of Breanna and Morgan, who will keep Stef from being manhandled and double-teamed. I have very high hopes for her next season.

Bria Hartley:

Best case- consensus First Team AA
Worst case- fringe First Team AA once again
My guess- for the best case to come to fruition, she can’t have another midseason slump (which she’s had her first two seasons). I think she’ll still be a bit inconsistent, but her worst stretches will be well above her worst stretches as a frosh or a soph. I think she gets another State Farm/WCBA AA nod, but is behind BG, EDD, Sims, Chiney, and Skylar for AP First Team honors.

Lauren Engeln:

Best case- Lauren manages to earn some consistent minutes and even comes in with the game in doubt at times.
Worst case- more of the same: garbage time only.
My guess- I just don’t think the minutes are going to be there for her. Not sure there’s much else to say. This is going to be an insanely deep basketball team.

Kaleena Mosqueda-Lewis:

Best case- KML assumes the mantle of “franchise player” that it seems to be her destiny to become. Whether the team needs her to start hot, carry them for stretches mid-game, or close, she comes through. She dominates from the perimeter and continues to develop a nasty post game, drawing contact and earning FTs in a way Maya never did. Her defensive intensity, already on the upswing by season’s end, continues the upward trend.
Worst case- KML plateaus a bit, tries to do a bunch of things without mastering any of them just yet, and we have to wait until her junior year to see her become a franchise player.
My guess- KML plays at a very high level, avoids hitting a wall this upcoming season, and makes the State Farm/WCBA AA team.

Kiah Stokes:

Best case- Kiah improves incrementally over the previous season, earning a solid 15 minutes a game and playing very well when she’s in. Her offensive game rounds out, and she becomes a very skilled defender and rebounder.
Worst case- Kiah’s mental game still isn’t where it needs to be, and she looks like a world beater half the time and an average Jill the other 50% of the time.
My guess- Kiah becomes the best backup center in the country and a critical piece of the best 1-2-3 punch at center in the country (which, BTW, might not be as good as Baylor’s 1 punch, but is still quite a luxury to have).

Brianna Banks:

Best case- the light comes on for her, and BB is able to harness her prodigious athleticism and earn Geno’s trust in the process.
Worst case- BB remains a tantalizing talent that you’d love to have in a pickup game but can’t play UConn basketball consistently.
My guess- I think BB will have her struggles next year. She will leave her mark before she leaves Storrs, but I don’t believe next year will be her time to do so.

Breanna Stewart:

Best case- one of the most decorated players of all time at the high school level has a Maya Moore-like freshman campaign in which she establishes herself immediately as one of the very best players in the country.
Worst case- Breanna is a bit too slight of build and raw of game to make the big-time impact people hope to from her, but she still contributes at a high level in spots.
My guess- Breanna is just too good and too needed for the worst case to be seriously in play. I think she steps into the four spot, makes Stef and Kelly better, establishes herself as a tremendous help defender, forms a very long and nasty frontcourt with whoever she plays alongside at the center position, and continues UConn’s streak of Big East FOY winners.

Moriah Jefferson:

Best case- Moriah takes to Geno’s vision of the game of basketball like a fish to water and becomes the best backup PG in the country by a mile…a country mile even.
Worst case- it takes her a year to develop the discipline Geno requires, to become accustomed to playing with and against elite players, and to see the court the way Geno expects a PG to see it. However, she gives even the most jaded fan a reason to stick around until the clock shows all zeros, no matter how lopsided the score may be.
My guess- closer to the worst case. She will show flashes of talent that will take your breath away, but she’ll need a year to put it all together.

Morgan Tuck:

Honestly, I have a hard time conceiving of best and worst cases for her. I think she comes in very much “college ready” and gives UConn even more depth in the frontcourt. She may not set the world on fire, but she will be a very solid piece who will only improve during her time in Storrs.

The Team as a Whole:

Best case- UConn’s unmatched depth of talent and versatility prove to be too much for any team to handle, Baylor included. The Huskies win the NC and set themselves up to challenge the program’s own record 90-game win streak.
Worst case- third straight loss in the national semis.
My guess- UConn edges Baylor in Hartford and gets edged by Baylor in New Orleans, finishing 38-1.

 

[doggydaddy]

Alex, just simply a wonderful post. Nothing like TonyC on steroids though....lol.

Not to much argue with except your last game of the season. Sims and Griner are great, but I thought Uconn would have beaten Baylor in the NCAA's if they met and UConn's depth will win out when they meet next year.

Sad to say, neither Harley nor Lewis will be 1st team AA's until Griner, EDD and Diggins graduate.

 

[msf22b]

Love it too
But I think one of your guards, Moriah, Brianna will scintilate.
I'm just not sure which one but if I had to bet, I'd pick the rookie

 

[MilfordHusky]

Nice post.

In terms of AA status, we may have a Husky on a 5-player team. I agree that we have at least 2 on a 10-player team. Kaleena's competition may be her precocious, lanky teammate.

It sounds heady but I agree--Kiah as the best back-up center in the nation and maybe a top-10 center in her own right.

For pretty much every player, the best case shows some improvement. For Stef, on the other hand, your scenario calls for "only" her March level of play, but without foul trouble. She was close to the second best center in the nation in March. Imagine if she stays out of foul trouble AND improves too!

I agree about Kelly--she can't play crazed for 30+ minutes, but she can pick her spots, especially at the 2/3 position where she won't get beat up.

 

[easttexastrash]

I agree on most of these. MoJ will be the most intriguing. She has a tendency to go for the spectacular play and Geno may have to beak her down and build her back up. That may take a little time.

 

[doggydaddy]

Geno may have to beak her down and build her back up. That may take a little time.

Yes, he will have to beak her down. He will show her the pecking order!

 

[alexrgct]

What Geno has said stands out most about Moriah's game is her ability to get to spots on the floor, and in my own observation of games I've been able to watch online, she is definitely uniquely elite in that regard. She plays very fast, but in control and she seems to have a plan of where she's trying to get to with the ball and what she's going to do when she gets there. UConn's offense is fairly complex and multi-layered, so it just may take her some time to understand where Geno wants her to go and what he wants her to do (probably with a more complex set of options than she's used to), but once that light comes on, she's going to be an incredibly effective PG. Really, the only question with her is when it happens.

 

[Kibitzer]

Best case/worst case, player by player.

Faris. Best case, able to play entire schedule, all games, no interruptions attributable to illness or infury. Worst case, playing time interrupted because of illness or injury.

Doty. Best case, able to play entire schedule, all games, no interruptions attributable to illness or injury. Worst case, playing time interrupted because of illness or infury.

Buck. [Need I go through the entire roster? Same for every player but add avoidance of foul trouble for Stef Dolson.]

 

[HGN]

Alexrgct, I Loved the post... But I disagree on BB. I think she will have a much improved sophomore season. Getting use to UConn basketball and finding out what is expected everytime she hits the floor took a year , but I think she will be ready next season. Plus , I think she will rise to the challenge of having MoJeff vying for minutes. But the more experienced sophomore wins out I believe.

 

[Bestiarius]

Thanks alexrgct, loved your well reasoned analysis. It looks like it will be a wonderful and interesting year with lots of sub plots to entertain us - all good. My biggest question mark is MoJef. She's so Bob Cousy, "The Houdini of the hardwood". I think Geno will need all of his skills and self control to mold her into a great Uconn player while at the same time allowing her to demonstrate her seat-filling spectacular skills.

 

[Icebear]

Alexrgct, I Loved the post... But I disagree on BB. I think she will have a much improved sophomore season. Getting use to UConn basketball and finding out what is expected everytime she hits the floor took a year , but I think she will be ready next season. Plus , I think she will rise to the challenge of having MoJeff vying for minutes. But the more experienced sophomore wins out I believe.

I don't think you are exactly disagreeing with Alex's post. His best case scenerio is that the light comes on for BB and she becomes exactly what you are hoping to see. What you may disagree over is simply the timing.

 

[EricLA]

great and well thought out post Alex. i see nothing to disagree with and i'm glad you didn't take best case for each player (Banks, Jefferson and Engeln were closer to "worst case"). i think that's very realistic.

and one thing you alluded to and will be another "weapon" in UCONN's arsenal (even tho it's not a specific weapon) is the depth and versatility at several positions. Having KML, Caroline and Bria on the court gives you 3 legit players with the ability to shoot the 3, allowing Kelly to possibly score more in the mid range game. i could see her having a season a bit like Kalana Greene's senior campaign, where KG feasted on the 10-15' jumper after faking out the defender covering her, or coming around a screen and getting a wide open mid range shot.

People sometimes forget that Kelly actually shot 31.5% from the 3-point line, compared to 33% for Caroline and Bria, and yet most feel the other two were much better 3-point shooters...

when you read analysis of how to "beat" the Huskies, writers seem to always talk about sagging off of Kelly, but when i kid hits literally 1 less 3-pointer out of 100 when compared to Caroline and Bria, you can't exactly sag off of her. and it was a great comment that she may benefit the most from the addition of the Big 3.

BTW i can't believe we didn't read anywhere that the Big 3 decided to "take their talents" to Storrs, CT. you'd think one of the writers would have made that comment...

 

[pap49cba]

"Caroline Doty:
Best case- while in Canada this summer...."

Alex - what is CD doing in Canada?

 

[Olde Coach]

Thought it would be fun to break down the team into its component parts and discuss the spectrum of possibility for each player.

Caroline Doty:

Best case- while in Canada this summer, Caroline gets her legs back under her a bit more, and her shot starts falling at a better clip next year. Her improved shooting, on top of her on and off-court leadership, allow her to finish her career on a very high note.
Worst case- well, I could say the worst case would be another injury, but really, that could be said of anybody. The worst case short of that is that her shot remains errant, she’s unable to defend on-ball against elite teams, but she still provides excellent on and off-court leadership and is a terrific antidote to trapping/pressing teams.
My guess- I think Caroline gets her shot back a bit and at least flirts with 40% next season, but she’s still going to have trouble against elite guards. But she will finish her career on a very high note.

Heather Buck:

Best case- Heather earns a consistent 5-10 minutes per game behind Stef and Kiah and puts those minutes to good use against Baylor, containing Brittney Griner just enough.
Worst case- Heather is used sparingly and inconsistently, and her solid performances against BG the past two years prove to be fool’s gold.
My guess- Closer to the best case. UConn will have a really nice 1-2-3 punch at the five spot, and Heather will be part of it.

Kelly Faris:

Best case- it’s not realistic to think she can consistently bring that same urgency she showed in the final minute of regulation in the national semis, but in the best case, she consistently brings it every time the team needs her to do so.
Worst case- Kelly reverts to doing everything the right way except that she is too tentative on offense and allows opposing defenses to sag off of her and clog the lanes.
My guess- I think Kelly is one of the players who will be most helped by the arrival of the young pups. She will defend the perimeter much more frequently without having to bang on players much bigger than her night in and night out. This will allow her to stay fresh and play inspired ball when needed. She won’t get her name on the HoH wall, but she will be one of the most beloved players not to.

Stef Dolson:

Best case- Stef plays like she did in the BET and NCAA tourney last year, except she finds a way to stay out of foul trouble.
Worst case- Stef reverts to the largely flustered and inconsistent player we saw much of her sophomore season.
My guess- I don’t know about the foul trouble part of it, but I bet Stef becomes a big-time weapon next season. Like Kelly, she’s greatly helped by the additions of Breanna and Morgan, who will keep Stef from being manhandled and double-teamed. I have very high hopes for her next season.

Bria Hartley:

Best case- consensus First Team AA
Worst case- fringe First Team AA once again
My guess- for the best case to come to fruition, she can’t have another midseason slump (which she’s had her first two seasons). I think she’ll still be a bit inconsistent, but her worst stretches will be well above her worst stretches as a frosh or a soph. I think she gets another State Farm/WCBA AA nod, but is behind BG, EDD, Sims, Chiney, and Skylar for AP First Team honors.

Lauren Engeln:

Best case- Lauren manages to earn some consistent minutes and even comes in with the game in doubt at times.
Worst case- more of the same: garbage time only.
My guess- I just don’t think the minutes are going to be there for her. Not sure there’s much else to say. This is going to be an insanely deep basketball team.

Kaleena Mosqueda-Lewis:

Best case- KML assumes the mantle of “franchise player” that it seems to be her destiny to become. Whether the team needs her to start hot, carry them for stretches mid-game, or close, she comes through. She dominates from the perimeter and continues to develop a nasty post game, drawing contact and earning FTs in a way Maya never did. Her defensive intensity, already on the upswing by season’s end, continues the upward trend.
Worst case- KML plateaus a bit, tries to do a bunch of things without mastering any of them just yet, and we have to wait until her junior year to see her become a franchise player.
My guess- KML plays at a very high level, avoids hitting a wall this upcoming season, and makes the State Farm/WCBA AA team.

Kiah Stokes:

Best case- Kiah improves incrementally over the previous season, earning a solid 15 minutes a game and playing very well when she’s in. Her offensive game rounds out, and she becomes a very skilled defender and rebounder.
Worst case- Kiah’s mental game still isn’t where it needs to be, and she looks like a world beater half the time and an average Jill the other 50% of the time.
My guess- Kiah becomes the best backup center in the country and a critical piece of the best 1-2-3 punch at center in the country (which, BTW, might not be as good as Baylor’s 1 punch, but is still quite a luxury to have).

Brianna Banks:

Best case- the light comes on for her, and BB is able to harness her prodigious athleticism and earn Geno’s trust in the process.
Worst case- BB remains a tantalizing talent that you’d love to have in a pickup game but can’t play UConn basketball consistently.
My guess- I think BB will have her struggles next year. She will leave her mark before she leaves Storrs, but I don’t believe next year will be her time to do so.

Breanna Stewart:

Best case- one of the most decorated players of all time at the high school level has a Maya Moore-like freshman campaign in which she establishes herself immediately as one of the very best players in the country.
Worst case- Breanna is a bit too slight of build and raw of game to make the big-time impact people hope to from her, but she still contributes at a high level in spots.
My guess- Breanna is just too good and too needed for the worst case to be seriously in play. I think she steps into the four spot, makes Stef and Kelly better, establishes herself as a tremendous help defender, forms a very long and nasty frontcourt with whoever she plays alongside at the center position, and continues UConn’s streak of Big East FOY winners.

Moriah Jefferson:

Best case- Moriah takes to Geno’s vision of the game of basketball like a fish to water and becomes the best backup PG in the country by a mile…a country mile even.
Worst case- it takes her a year to develop the discipline Geno requires, to become accustomed to playing with and against elite players, and to see the court the way Geno expects a PG to see it. However, she gives even the most jaded fan a reason to stick around until the clock shows all zeros, no matter how lopsided the score may be.
My guess- closer to the worst case. She will show flashes of talent that will take your breath away, but she’ll need a year to put it all together.

Morgan Tuck:

Honestly, I have a hard time conceiving of best and worst cases for her. I think she comes in very much “college ready” and gives UConn even more depth in the frontcourt. She may not set the world on fire, but she will be a very solid piece who will only improve during her time in Storrs.

The Team as a Whole:

Best case- UConn’s unmatched depth of talent and versatility prove to be too much for any team to handle, Baylor included. The Huskies win the NC and set themselves up to challenge the program’s own record 90-game win streak.
Worst case- third straight loss in the national semis.
My guess- UConn edges Baylor in Hartford and gets edged by Baylor in New Orleans, finishing 38-1.

Great post Alex. I just want to remind folks that MoJef really wowed a lot of people at the U-18 try-outs -- where, as we all know -- she earned a place on the team.

The reports I read said that Mo was a "force" all over the court. Defense as well as offense. Diving for loose balls. A dominant player!!! The USA experience this summer will be great for her.

My guess is that she will be a really "quick study" at UConn; and she will play a lot of minutes this year -- including November and December games.

 

[alexrgct]

"Caroline Doty:
Best case- while in Canada this summer...."

Alex - what is CD doing in Canada?

Some sort of summer internship in Ottawa. Saw it on her twitter, but she didn't go into much detail.

 

[John Fryer]

I agree on most of these. MoJ will be the most intriguing. She has a tendency to go for the spectacular play and Geno may have to beak her down and build her back up. That may take a little time.

Comments like this are concerning to me.

Why in the world would you feel that coach A will have to "beak her down" in reference to the number 1 rated PG in the country?

We have had similar discussions before about what might happen between Moriah and coach A and the feelings that some BYs have that she has to be changed in some way before she is UConn ready.

If she wasn't UConn ready, why was she recruited?

Moriah Jefferson is ready to play for any division 1 school in the country. ( She might have had to sit for awhile if she had commited to Baylor or ND!)

IMHO, arguments that Caroline Doty is a better PG/player, are just fantasy.

To expand the discussion a little further here are my suggestions for a starting line up.

Moriah - PG

Bria - in the 2 spot.

KML - in the 3 spot.

Tuck - in the 4 spot

Steff - in the 5 spot.

If she plays as expected, Breanna would assume KML's old role of being the first off the bench. (At this point in their development Tuck has more experience at and has the better body for the 4 spot than Breanna.)

Peace,

John Fryer

 

[Kibitzer]

Comments like this are concerning to me.

Why in the world would you feel that coach A will have to "beak her down" in reference to the number 1 rated PG in the country?

To expand the discussion a little further here are my suggestions for a starting line up.

Moriah - PG

Bria - in the 2 spot.

KML - in the 3 spot.

Tuck - in the 4 spot

Steff - in the 5 spot.

If she plays as expected, Breanna would assume KML's old role of being the first off the bench. (At this point in their development Tuck has more experience at and has the better body for the 4 spot than Breanna.)

Peace,

John Fryer

That might be your starting lineup but Geno's starting lineup begins when he first writes the name of Kelly Faris. Then he'll add the other four, most likely Caroline, Kaleena, Bria and Stef. He will likely change this as the season progresses but going out of the gate there ain't no way (assuming good health) that Kelly and Caroline will watch from the bench as two newcomers start. Maybe later, but not in November.

 

[MilfordHusky]

I'm with Kib--the veterans start. For Caroline, her season depends on her knee. At times last year, Kelly was reluctant or ineffective offensively. At other times, she dominated games. At UConn, she is 23-2 in the post-season. In high school, she was something like 24-0. She wins, plain and simple. And she will play even harder than before in her senior season.

 

[John Glass]

The reports I read said that Mo was a "force" all over the court. Defense as well as offense. Diving for loose balls. A dominant player!!! The USA experience this summer will be great for her.

My guess is that she will be a really "quick study" at UConn; and she will play a lot of minutes this year -- including November and December games.[/quote]

..........................................................................................................

I think Jefferson will be a starter by mid-season , Hartley can play the wing

 

[doggydaddy]

Here we go again. The two Johns talking about Jefferson starting and Doty coming off the bench.

I'm fine if that that is what you think, but if you think Geno will do that, I'd like to bet some money on that. I could use the cash.

 

[RadyLady]

I'm with Kib--the veterans start. For Caroline, her season depends on her knee. At times last year, Kelly was reluctant or ineffective offensively. At other times, she dominated games. At UConn, she is 23-2 in the post-season. In high school, she was something like 24-0. She wins, plain and simple. And she will play even harder than before in her senior season.

Agreed. Folks need to remember that Geno does NOT start freshman unless forced to do so. All the nay saying about Caroline and Kelly is just silly. Kelly has proved herself time and again, relagating her to the bench for a freshman and in her senior season instead of starting her is disrespectful IMO and Geno wouldn't do that, same for Caroline.

 

[RadyLady]

Comments like this are concerning to me.

Why in the world would you feel that coach A will have to "beak her down" in reference to the number 1 rated PG in the country?

We have had similar discussions before about what might happen between Moriah and coach A and the feelings that some BYs have that she has to be changed in some way before she is UConn ready.

If she wasn't UConn ready, why was she recruited?

Moriah Jefferson is ready to play for any division 1 school in the country. ( She might have had to sit for awhile if she had commited to Baylor or ND!)

IMHO, arguments that Caroline Doty is a better PG/player, are just fantasy.


Peace,

John Fryer

Geno recruits players that will fit into the UConn style of play and sense of team. Once a player is on campus, there is always a period of learning, some long, some short depending on the person. College ball is different than HS BB, and adjustment to the pace and play of college ball is necessary. Learning the plays and the flow of the game and the other players strengths takes time and is necessary especially for a point guard (!).

We don't know how any of these recruits will perform at the college level, how and if they will fit in, and so on.
I give you Samarie Walker and I rest my case. True, we have some good idea, but we don't know for certain.

For my money, to state without any hard evidence that any freshman without experience at the college level could start on a Geno Auriemma coached UConn team is someone who does not know the UConn system very well at all.

Maybe she could start for just any team, but UConn - Geno's team is not just any team.

 

[pap49cba]

And away we go!!!!!.................

 

[RadyLady]

And away we go!!!!!.................

whaaa???

 

[Bigpetunia]

Nice post! It just demonstrates how tough it is for addicts like us to sit out the off-season.
I would like to comment on only two:
1. KF: Short of injury (perish the thought), there really is no worst-case scenario for her...Yes, I'd love her to develop more confidence in her shooting, but her overall contribution on the floor is so extraordinary, and her work ethic is so manifestly committed, I can't see her as anything but a consistently powerful force out there, night after night...she will lead the team in minutes, I can assure you, and I hope she's named Captain. No one is more prepared to put the team on her shoulders!
2. BB: This one really could go either way. No one coming off the bench has more speed, more athleticism, and more upside potential than she. She's one of the reasons that I hope KF is Cap'n, a teammate who will demand the greatest commitment from her. The problem, of course, is that Geno, with so many options, will keep her on a short leash, and I fear that she won't be able to find her game without more minutes on the floor, playing through the inevitable mistakes.