OT: Before hitting the "Normal" button...

[UcMiami]

dogged1 -
Well ... the current percentage exposure estimate in Sweden is 7.5% of the population - herd immunity starts kicking in at 70+% - so if the death rate continues in Sweden, they will have 42,000 deaths before they reach 'saturation' levels. At the current rate in Norway 3 months/236 deaths, it would take close to 60 months/5 years to reach 42,000 deaths.

With the amount of money/effort being expended internationally toward a vaccine I suspect there will be some form of vaccine within the next 12 months.

This is all hypothetical and all we can really see is what is currently identified.

To other posters:
I also know that 25 and under death rate is minimal, but hospitalization rates is not and permanent lung damage to those who require hospitalization is real. Even without that issue, the teachers, colleagues, service personnel, and family members who interact with those under 25s comprise a full age range some of whom are definitely at higher risk of death. I know personally of a few instances where loving adult children infected parents and grand parents. So ... just saying under 25s can do whatever they want because they will not die is ignoring the fact that society is not age segregated and it cannot be. I just completed my weekly run and was in shared space with people from under 10 to over 70. Thankfully most of us were masked and kept our distance from each other.

ON a special note: CVS in Storrs had a supply of hand sanitizer for the first time in three months! I was shocked and walked past without noticing until I saw a display at check-out.

 

[dogged1]

dogged1 -
Well ... the current percentage exposure estimate in Sweden is 7.5% of the population - herd immunity starts kicking in at 70+% - so if the death rate continues in Sweden, they will have 42,000 deaths before they reach 'saturation' levels. At the current rate in Norway 3 months/236 deaths, it would take close to 60 months/5 years to reach 42,000 deaths.

With the amount of money/effort being expended internationally toward a vaccine I suspect there will be some form of vaccine within the next 12 months.

This is all hypothetical and all we can really see is what is currently identified.

To other posters:
I also know that 25 and under death rate is minimal, but hospitalization rates is not and permanent lung damage to those who require hospitalization is real. Even without that issue, the teachers, colleagues, service personnel, and family members who interact with those under 25s comprise a full age range some of whom are definitely at higher risk of death. I know personally of a few instances where loving adult children infected parents and grand parents. So ... just saying under 25s can do whatever they want because they will not die is ignoring the fact that society is not age segregated and it cannot be. I just completed my weekly run and was in shared space with people from under 10 to over 70. Thankfully most of us were masked and kept our distance from each other.

ON a special note: CVS in Storrs had a supply of hand sanitizer for the first time in three months! I was shocked and walked past without noticing until I saw a display at check-out.

Excellent argument. Enlightening.
I suspect that Noway's rate will increase over time as a greater percentage of the population is slowly exposed to the virus and likewise Sweden's will flatten as they approach "herd immunity"
But it is all a guessing game.
The best that can happen now is a quick and effective vaccine. Until then I hope that we all stay safe and stay healthy.

 

[UcMiami]

Excellent argument. Enlightening.
I suspect that Noway's rate will increase over time as a greater percentage of the population is slowly exposed to the virus and likewise Sweden's will flatten as they approach "herd immunity"
But it is all a guessing game.
The best that can happen now is a quick and effective vaccine. Until then I hope that we all stay safe and stay healthy.

I would have thought so in terms of Sweden and Norway, but according to the John Hopkins world map which is about as good as data gets, Sweden cases are continuing on a pretty steady line (not exponential but not flattening either) while Norway is pretty close to flat lining for all of May. Sweden 5,677 new cases in last 10 days, Norway 155; since May 1 Sweden 15,261, Norway 639.

 

[Rocket009]

View attachment 54832
From your name, I assume that you, like I, grew up in the age of mumps, measles, etc.

A few kids died. The rest of us got sick, developed immunity, and went on with our lives. These kids need to move forward with their lives. Will some die? Yeah. Probably about as many as will die from alcohol overdose. Not as many as die from DUI accidents. Nowhere near as many who will commit suicide!

According to the CDC 93 deaths have occurred among 15-24 years old due to coronavirus. (30 from flu. 185 from pneumonia not combined with coronavirus)

Wonder how many have died from drug and alcohol overdoses and DUI?
Approximately 2,200 alcohol-poisoning deaths occur each year in the United States. 5 percent of alcohol poison deaths happen to people aged 15–24. (That's 110). The Scary Truth About Teen Alcohol Poisoning | Newport Academy
In 2015, 4,235 youth ages 15-24 died from a drug-related overdose; over half of these were attributable to opioids. The health consequences of opioid misuse affect a much larger number of people. Opioids and Adolescents

Eight teens die every day in DUI crashes. At all levels of blood alcohol content (BAC), the risk of being in a car crash is greater for teens than for older drivers. ( That's 2,820 deaths per year) Teen Driving Crash and Fatality Stats | Teens | Survive - Stop Yourself. Stop a Friend.

Teenage suicide in the United States. The suicide rate in the United States remains comparatively high for the 15 to 24 age group with 5,079 suicides in this age range in 2014, making it the second leading cause of death for that age range.

Would I be concerned about my child cathcing coronavirus in college? Yeah, somewhat. But there are much bigger concerns out there.

Sigh...

Comparing annual numbers to effectively 3 months of covid-19 numbers creates a distorted view.

and yes, people die of other things, but we do a lot legislatively, and fiscally to try to reduce these numbers.So why should this be any different? For example, let's look at DUIs - we have legislated extensively to bring down DUI numbers, even raising the drinking age to 21, stricter penalties for DUI - then there's car safety legislation... so it is an issue and extensive measures have been enacted to try to impact it.

In a college environment, the high level of contagion this disease carries increases the chances of students catching this disease to close to 100%.(unless you enact measures to limit contact etc.) So while the death rate in that age group is low (and ignoring the impact on employees, support workers etc. who die at a higher rate) are we OK with 0.2% of the student population loosing their life or having their long-term health impacted?

On a campus of 10000 students, 0.2% is still 20 families that lose a child - every 3 months.

 

[visitingcock]

Sigh...

Comparing annual numbers to effectively 3 months of covid-19 numbers creates a distorted view.

and yes, people die of other things, but we do a lot legislatively, and fiscally to try to reduce these numbers.So why should this be any different? For example, let's look at DUIs - we have legislated extensively to bring down DUI numbers, even raising the drinking age to 21, stricter penalties for DUI - then there's car safety legislation... so it is an issue and extensive measures have been enacted to try to impact it.

In a college environment, the high level of contagion this disease carries increases the chances of students catching this disease to close to 100%.(unless you enact measures to limit contact etc.) So while the death rate in that age group is low (and ignoring the impact on employees, support workers etc. who die at a higher rate) are we OK with 0.2% of the student population loosing their life or having their long-term health impacted?

On a campus of 10000 students, 0.2% is still 20 families that lose a child - every 3 months.

First, I assume that readers are capable of understanding that 2200 annual alcohol poisoning deaths is @183 deaths per month as opposed to 93 deaths in 3 months (31 deaths per month) from Covid - nearly six times more. And that is choosing the lowest number of the causes of young people deaths I presented.

Second, where did you get .2%? I would say thin air and that nowhere near that many young people die from Covid-19. Maybe 0.2% of the young people who are known to have had it. However, it is well documented that many young people in that age group become infected but remain asymptomatic. That means they the majority of young people who get it are never tested. The true percentage of deaths per infection is probably much lower than that

However, assuming that you are correct, the fact remains that MANY more than 20 families are going to lose their children to pneumonia, alcohol poisoning, DUI, suicide, and drug overdose. Do we shut down colleges to prevent those other types of student deaths? No. Parents know the risks that their children take when leaving the nest to attend college.

You might argue that those other causes of death are "life-style choices" that the youths make whereas coronavirus is a medical condition. However, 185 15-24 year-olds have died of pneumonia during the same timeframe that 93 have died from coronavirus!

Lock them in the house and shelter them from those many causes of death - or let them go on with their lives. If they don't go to college, are they gonna stay locked up with Mom and Dad? Heck no. Even if the parents try, they're still gonna leave the home or sneak out at night to have sex (like they did in high school). We can't lock a generation away til we find a cure (which might never happen)

Some will die of coronavirus. Unfortunate - but it's unfortunate that any person dies at that age but they still do. The herd is thinning due to coronavirus, but this group is one of the least vulnerable.

 

[Dream Jobbed 2.0]

Baseball - what about the dugouts?

MLB is talking about spreading players out in the empty stands rather than dugouts.

 

[eebmg]

MLB is talking about spreading players out in the empty stands rather than dugouts.

The game has changed for the worse with HR's and KO's being the only options and I am more than happy to never see a MLB game again. I am getting more than enough BB from the Korean League which actually plays a very fundamentally sound game.

 

[Fishy]

Sooner or later, most will be exposed to this virus one way or the other (just like flu - or the common cold).
Immunity happens ONLY through exposure or a vaccine. Either you become immune (with or without symptoms) or you don't get exposed.
All of this "shutdown" only delays - it doesn't cancel

That's basically it.

At some point, most of us will be exposed to the virus and when a significant number of us have been exposed and develop antibodies, the virus will have trouble gaining purchase in new hosts and will fade. That's how these things run their course.

The intent of 'flatten the curve' was just that - slow the rate of infection so that the medical resources were not overburdened and that everyone who needed care would receive it. At some. point, that morphed into 'stay home forever or you will kill grandma' - you can see that sentiment above and it's misguided.

If you are healthy and not in one of the high-risk groups, the virus poses almost no threat to you. I've had it and my daughter has had it - deeply unpleasant for me, barely a bump in the road for her, not dangerous for either. People here should be resuming their lives and that includes heading to college campuses, camps, basketball games, fairs, beaches, rail trails, malls, whatever.

People. who are in a risk group....can't. They need to continue to take major precautions. And delaying a return to normal for the healthy is not helping here - at-risk people still need to go to grocery stores, gas stations, pharmacies, etc. Suppressing herd immunity to help this group is counter-productive.

 

[uconnfan68]

That's basically it.

At some point, most of us will be exposed to the virus and when a significant number of us have been exposed and develop antibodies, the virus will have trouble gaining purchase in new hosts and will fade. That's how these things run their course.

The intent of 'flatten the curve' was just that - slow the rate of infection so that the medical resources were not overburdened and that everyone who needed care would receive it. At some. point, that morphed into 'stay home forever or you will kill grandma' - you can see that sentiment above and it's misguided.

If you are healthy and not in one of the high-risk groups, the virus poses almost no threat to you. I've had it and my daughter has had it - deeply unpleasant for me, barely a bump in the road for her, not dangerous for either. People here should be resuming their lives and that includes heading to college campuses, camps, basketball games, fairs, beaches, rail trails, malls, whatever.

People. who are in a risk group....can't. They need to continue to take major precautions. And delaying a return to normal for the healthy is not helping here - at-risk people still need to go to grocery stores, gas stations, pharmacies, etc. Suppressing herd immunity to help this group is counter-productive.

Glad you and your daughter are OK now.

 

[reno tony]

I am about to turn 79 years old and I don't think we should shut down just for me. I will take care and self isolate, but I say let the younger people get on with life. Why should I expect a restaurant to remain closed to protect me ? Why should Geno et. al. expect WCBB to remain shut to protect him ?

Do you believe people and business owners should take some of the simple precautions available to protect others? Wearing a mask is simple enough and they are readily available. Washing hands and using sanitizer seems easy. Putting up plexiglass barriers between employees and patrons when possible seems like a minimal expense to keep people safe. I won't patronize a business that doesn't have my safety as a priority in their business practices. I hope you stay safe and if you are unfortunate to pick up the bug I pray you don't share it with someone you love.

 

[UcMiami]

The comparison of an infectious disease to various other causes of death is really meaningless. We think of 911 as a horror and it changed our world in countless ways, but a death toll of 3000 is meaningless when compared to 126,000 killed by the tsunami in the Indian Ocean in 2004 or whatever number you use for the Haitian earthquake in 2010. And as for diseases, heart disease claims 600,000+ in the USA each year followed by cancers at nearly the same number. Accidental death comes in at 170,000 (including DUI and other auto deaths.)

The issue is not that people die, but in how we as a nation and as a world society respond to threats - natural disasters are unpredictable in timing but fairly predictable in a general way. We can choose to change building codes and where we build and live based on the knowledge that hurricanes, tsunamis, earthquakes, and fires will occur with regularity in certain parts of the country and world. We can and do set up early warning systems, monitoring systems, and mitigation systems to try and cope with our expectations.

We can also pass laws and monitor/enforce behavior to try and reduce accident deaths both on roads and in dangerous professions like mining and construction. How successful we are is dependent on both the collective society and the individuals, but we are constantly reviewing and adjusting our responses.

With heart disease, cancer, stroke, alzheimers, and other diseases, we research and educate and improve care - but these are non-infectious diseases, and depend on individual choices and individual bodily systems. We can and do legislate against carcinogenic chemicals as a society, but we cannot generally legislate individual choices.

Infectious diseases are a different beast because they are 'social'. AIDS came upon us in the 70s and completely changed our social lives - but it is a 'simpler' disease to contain the spread of - it required person to person transfer of bodily fluids. Ebola is similar.

Scientist and disease experts have always feared an 'airborne' infectious disease like the 1917-1920 flu because it does not require physical contact to spread. The common flu is bad enough, but we have learned to live with it because it's death rate is very small. And while we allow it to spread through our populations generally unchecked, its rate of spread is pretty small as well. We have had a few scares with 'Swine Flu' and 'Bird Flu' in the last few decades but neither of these proved to be that outlier flu with high mortality rate, and we have become quite proficient in creating vaccines for flu.

Covid 19 is a different beast - even with extraordinary measures taken to reduce the spread of an airborne virus, there are already 1.75M cases in the US and 100,000 deaths (greater in 3 months than any recent 6 month flu season.) The death rate is an order of magnitude greater than standard flu, and the spread rate also appears to be double. Without the extraordinary measures taken for the last three months the picture would be much more grim. A look at what is happening in Brazil where almost nothing has been done may be a window on what the US would look like now without social distancing - the growth of cases and deaths has been exponential and has not yet begun to slow (and those are just the official numbers in a country that may not being honest with their reporting.) And while the world is working furiously, we have never developed a vaccine for this type of virus, and we have yet to find a mixture of medicines that can mitigate the disease when it turns critical in a patient.

 

[Rocket009]

First, I assume that readers are capable of understanding that 2200 annual alcohol poisoning deaths is @183 deaths per month as opposed to 93 deaths in 3 months (31 deaths per month) from Covid - nearly six times more. And that is choosing the lowest number of the causes of young people deaths I presented.

Second, where did you get .2%? I would say thin air and that nowhere near that many young people die from Covid-19. Maybe 0.2% of the young people who are known to have had it. However, it is well documented that many young people in that age group become infected but remain asymptomatic. That means they the majority of young people who get it are never tested. The true percentage of deaths per infection is probably much lower than that

However, assuming that you are correct, the fact remains that MANY more than 20 families are going to lose their children to pneumonia, alcohol poisoning, DUI, suicide, and drug overdose. Do we shut down colleges to prevent those other types of student deaths? No. Parents know the risks that their children take when leaving the nest to attend college.

You might argue that those other causes of death are "life-style choices" that the youths make whereas coronavirus is a medical condition. However, 185 15-24 year-olds have died of pneumonia during the same timeframe that 93 have died from coronavirus!

Lock them in the house and shelter them from those many causes of death - or let them go on with their lives. If they don't go to college, are they gonna stay locked up with Mom and Dad? Heck no. Even if the parents try, they're still gonna leave the home or sneak out at night to have sex (like they did in high school). We can't lock a generation away til we find a cure (which might never happen)

Some will die of coronavirus. Unfortunate - but it's unfortunate that any person dies at that age but they still do. The herd is thinning due to coronavirus, but this group is one of the least vulnerable.

0.2% was a number that appeared in the chart you included for some of the other countries for that age group - so it wasn't thin air, but your own presented data.

Also you missed the entire point and that is that you argue that because people die of other things that we should not do anything about this. Where as I pointed out that we spend lots of time, money, researching legislation on reducing all of these other causes of death. So why should we ignore something like this?

"The herd is thinning" argument is an uncaring position to take. Real people are dying unnecessarily and I get it - you are OK with this. Others do not share this position.