The turning point was the unfortunate injury to DiDi Richards. Without that and temporary Baylor collapse that followed it, I feel fairly confident the game would've gone differently.
There's nothing surprising nor uniquely outrageous about the possible missed foul on Carrington's last shot. 1) The refs were giving the benefit of the doubt to contact all day - many instances of contact on shooters that could've been fouls. 2) Refs are known to swallow whistles toward the end of close games. It's incredibly rare for UConn to have possibly benefitted from one of these moments, but it happens a lot.
The best way to avoid the possibility of refs swallowing whistles to your detriment is not to be trailing toward the end of a close game. Had Baylor recovered more quickly from DiDi not being on the court, they would've probably gone on to the Final Four.